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Kate Scrivens
Wikiprogress Project Manager
OECD Statistics Directorate,
Monitoring Progress & Well-
being Division
KNOWLEDGE & POLICY: OVERVIEW
Introduction
Theories of knowledge use in policy
Case study 1: Programme for International Student
Assessment (PISA)
Case study 2: Climate change measurement
The policy impact of well-being/QoL measurement
The role of Wikiprogress
INTRODUCTION
The OECD
The OECD’s work on well-being measurement
Wikiprogress
What do we mean by “knowledge”?
Well-being and Quality-of-Life measures as policy
knowledge
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
WHAT IS THE OECD?
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and
Development:
Currently 34 member countries
Historical origins: administering the Marshall Plan,
fostering economic growth
Today’s mission: “Better Policies for Better Lives”
A think-and-do tank, semi-autonomous, functioning
through peer review and consensus-building
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
THE OECD AND WELL-BEING
2004: the 1st OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy
The well-being and ‘Beyond GDP’ movement: diverse and international
2009: the Stiglitz Report
2011: the launch of the Better Life Initiative
BLI, How’s Life?, Subjective Wellbeing Guidelines, etc.
High-Level Expert Group on Well-being (‘Stiglitz 2’), 5th World Forum to be held in 2015
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
WIKIPROGRESS
An online platform for sharing knowledge and data
A community portal for anyone interested in well-being/progress measurement and policy
Hosted by OECD but open-source, independent
Purpose:
Provide resources and information for researchers, practitioners and policy-makers
Raise public awareness about well-being/progress issues
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
WHAT IS ‘KNOWLEDGE’? Knowledge = information + understanding
Where does our information come from?
Scientific research
Policy research
Official statistics (surveys, administrative data, etc.)
Other data (Open government data, ‘big’ data, etc.)
Media
Experience
Other people (friends, experts, advisors, conference presenters, etc.)
We cannot assume that knowledge and information are objective and free of bias
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
THEORIES OF KNOWLEDGE USE IN POLICY
Models of research use in policy
Types of policy outcomes resulting from knowledge use
Political economy theories and the role of knowledge:
Ideas
Institutions
Interests
Communicating for policy: complexity vs accessibility
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
MODELS OF RESEARCH USE IN POLICY
The policy process is rarely linear and clear-cut
6 models of research use (Weiss, 1979, “The many
meanings of research utilisation”)
Problem-solving model
Knowledge-driven model
Interactive model
Political model
Tactical model
Enlightenment model
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
PROBLEM-SOLVING MODEL Based on the idea that decisions are made in a linear
series of steps
A problem is defined
Different courses of action are identified
Pros and cons of each option are clearly set out
The option offering the best solution is selected
The policy is implemented
The outcome is evaluated
Represents most people’s ideal of evidence-based policy-making
BUT ignores the role of politics in the policy process
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
KNOWLEDGE-DRIVEN MODEL Sees academic research as the driving force of policy
development
While academics may assume this to be norm, it is rare
in real-life policy
Academic knowledge in the social sciences is usually
not undisputed or authoritative enough to lead directly
to implementation
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
INTERACTIVE MODEL Recognises the plurality of policy actors
Input into the policy process can come from many
different sources (both formal and informal
Practitioners, aides, researchers, lobbyists, journalists,
friends, etc.
Difficult to trace the role of specific kinds of
‘knowledge’ in influencing policy
Each actor provides a piece of the puzzle, but it is rare
that any one source alone can provide an answer
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
POLITICAL MODEL Political interests around an issue predetermine the
position that decision makers take
Discussion around an issue has gone on for so long
that opinions are hardened and new evidence is
unlikely to change these positions
Information is used selectively as ammunition to
support previously held positions
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
TACTICAL MODEL Information used for purposes unrelated to the actual
content it presents
Examples
A politician using statistics in a speech only to give the
impression of evidence-based thinking
A mayor using a report as an excuse to delay city
planning reform (“we need to study the issue more”)
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
ENLIGHTENMENT MODEL Research and data are diffused through various
channels Conference presentations, news reports, discussions with colleagues,
indicator reports, scientific evidence etc.
Generalisations emerge which provide decision makers with the means of framing issues in a certain way
Makes policy makers more sensitive to emerging issues and helps to define problems
Weiss argued that this was the most common way that social science research contributes to policy making
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
TACTICAL MODEL Information used for purposes unrelated to the actual
content it presents
Examples
A politician using statistics in a speech only to give the
impression of evidence-based thinking
A mayor using a report as an excuse to delay city
planning reform (“we need to study the issue more”)
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
ROLE OF INDICATORS The BRAINPOoL project (following on from POINT), adapted
these general models to the role of indicators.
Instrumental use, where indicators are seen as objective information tools to improve policy making, solving problems and consciously influencing decisions
Conceptual use, which sees the prime value of the indicator to be more intangible, influencing how policy makers define a problem
Political use, which consists of 3 sub-categories Strategic use: used to bolster a position/decision that has already been
taken Tactical use: where decisions are postponed or avoided with the excuse
that data is being awaited Symbolic use: where indicators are used only to convey a message or
present an image
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
TYPES OF POLICY OUTCOMES FROM
KNOWLEDGE USE Content change
Change in the content of policy and/or resources
allocated
Agenda setting change
Change in policymakers’ priorities and where attention
is drawn to new issues that were previously ignored
Framing shift
Changes the way that policymakers understand a
problem or the possible responses to it
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
TYPES OF POLICY OUTCOMES (CONTD.) Procedural change
Changes how policy itself is made by procedural/ institutional
change that leads to new actors or new evidence being part of
the process of decision-making
Behavioural change
Change in the way in which policy is implemented
From Sumner et al. 2009, “Making science of influencing:
Assessing the impact of development research”
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
POLITICAL ECONOMY THEORIES & KNOWLEDGE Mainstream economic theory provides a framework of
understanding based on idealised models of human
and market behaviour
Theories of political economy aim to take into account
the ways policies are developed and implemented in
the real world
Political economy theory tends to cover three broad
areas (the 3 ‘I’s):
Ideas
Institutions
Interests
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
IDEAS Ideas, in this context, refer to our implicit and explicit
assumptions about how the world works
No matter how objective and scientific we think we are being, we tend to operate within certain cognitive and normativeframeworks
Ideas are powerful – and they are most powerful when we are not even aware of their influence: many things we take to be “fact” are socially constructed
Dominant ideas tend to change gradually over time, but they can also change quickly after a shock
Ideas (norms, theories, shared understandings, worldviews, paradigms, ideologies) both constrain and enable collective action
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
INTERESTS In all societies there are different groups who have different
interests in the outcomes of policies (interest groups)
Groups that have more resources, more power and are
better-organised tend to have the most influence on policy
outcomes
This is especially the case where the costs of a policy are
concentrated within one group, and the benefits are
distributed across society (or vice versa)
However, politicians need votes as well as support from
elites: where widespread public opinion can be mobilised,
this can provide the political will to override powerful lobbies
For some, interests and ideas are two sides of the same coin
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
INSTITUTIONS Institutions are the rules and laws that govern society, and
the bodies and processes which implement them
Institutions shape the way in which decisions are made (e.g.
consensus, majority vote, expert-driven, evidence-based,
negotiation) and policy action is implemented
Institutions matter a great deal for determining the impact of
knowledge on policy
Institutional change tends to be slow
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
COMMUNICATING STATISTICS FOR POLICY Statistical products generally have three types of audience
1. Statisticians/researchers
2. Policy makers/analysts
3. Public (media, civil society, non-experts
Each of these audiences requires a different amount and
complexity of data
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
Public
Policy
Tech
Public
Policy
Technical
Size of
audience
Amount/
complexity
of data
KEY POINTS FROM THE THEORY There is no one way in which knowledge can be
transferred into policy
Multiple actors from different sectors of society can play a role in the policy process
The impact of knowledge on policy can take many forms, and is often diffuse, subtle, accumulative and hard to trace
Scientific knowledge, no matter how convincing and clear-cut it is, will be filtered through the dominant ideas, interests and institutions of a society, which will shape its impact on policy
The communication of knowledge for policy needs to be tailored to different purposes and audiences
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
WHAT HELPS INDICATORS IMPACT POLICY? According to the BRAINPOoL project, four “success” factors
can be identified for policy indicators
Salience for decision makers
Indicators are successful when they can demonstrate real relevance for policy or strategy
Salience for a broader audience
Producing a simple, attractive message that links to a meaningful concept while avoiding certain ‘taboo’ words and concepts is key to impacting a broad audience
Credibility
Data quality and the appearance of neutrality are important
Relationships
Relationship-building with the intended audience to strengthen the legitimacy of indicators is key
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
CASE STUDY 1: PISA
The Programme for International Student Assessment
(PISA) – description and objectives
Implementation of PISA
Policy impact
Lessons from PISA on how knowledge gets transferred
into policy
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
PISA: DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES The Programme for International Student Assessment
(PISA) is an international survey which aims to evaluate education systems worldwide to inform national education policy
More than 70 economies have participated in the assessment to date
The survey is held every three years, with the main focus rotating between three core subjects: literacy, mathematics and science
The most recently published results are from the assessment in 2012, in which over half a million students took part
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
IMPLEMENTATION OF PISA PISA was created in 1997, with the first round of
assessments taking place in 2000
Each round of PISA operates on a 5-year cycle (3 years’ preparation, 2 years’ reporting)
The development and implementation of PISA is based on collaboration and consensus with a wide range of experts and practitioners
The institutional structure of PISA is geared towards high levels of cooperation and exchange between the OECD and national experts and policy makers in participating countries
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
POLICY IMPACT OF PISA Large-scale reform has been implemented in several
countries as a direct result of PISA “shock”
E.g. Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Japan
The influence of PISA has increased over time and it is
now widely recognised as the most important
international evaluation of education systems
It is a good example of instrumental use of indicators
that has led to a wide range of policy outcomes
(content, procedural, agenda-setting, framing,
behavioural change)
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
LESSONS FROM THE PISA EXPERIENCE Why has PISA been so immensely influential?
It meets all 4 BRAINPOoL criteria for successful indicators (saliency for policy and public, credibility and relationships)
It covers a well-defined problem (education) whose importance is widely-agreed across different groups (few opposing interests)
It represents the dominant idea that education is important for economic productivity
The institutions and tools to implement education reform are well-established
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
CASE STUDY 2: CLIMATE CHANGE
The evolution of knowledge on climate change
The policy impact of climate change evidence
Lessons from the example of climate change
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
KNOWLEDGE ON CLIMATE CHANGE Scientific concern over the global warming and the role of
human activity began in the 1950s
By the 1990s, a scientific consensus had emerged around the need to act
1988: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed
1992: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
1997 (enforced 2005): Kyoto Protocol (first legally binding agreement)
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
KNOWLEDGE ON CLIMATE CHANGE (CONTD.) By 2000s, volume of evidence on the need to take
policy action to combat climate change is
overwhelming
2007: Stern Report on Economics of Climate Change
(estimated 1% of world GDP needed to be invested)
Nov 2014: Latest IPCC Report released:
“Without additional mitigation efforts beyond those in place today, and
even with adaptation, warming by the end of the 21st century will lead to
high to very high risk of severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts
globally”
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
POLICY IMPACT OF CLIMATE SCIENCE While the scientific knowledge is unanimous, policy
action has lagged behind
Countries’ commitments have tended not to be
matched by action
The Kyoto Protocol took years of negotiations to be
enforced, and the US has refused to ratify the treaty
Implementation of policies to reduce carbon emissions
are extremely uneven across countries (tending to be
stronger in EU than non-EU countries)
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
LESSONS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE Climate change is a complex issue, which touches
upon a wide range of economic, social, technological and institutional challenges
While the message and evidence is clear, the political and institutional barriers to action are significant and numerous: Strongly entrenched opposing interests promoting a
contradictory narrative National institutions are not well-equipped to deal with cross-
cutting issues with high costs of action and diffuse, delayed outcomes
Lack of political consensus around the best way to act on climate change (few established policy tools and levers)
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
LESSONS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE (CONTD.)
Public knowledge of climate change is a powerful
determinant of climate change policy adaption
Countries in which the public is aware of the causes of
climate change are significantly more likely to adopt
climate change mitigation policies
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
WELL-BEING AND QOL MEASUREMENT The OECD and well-being measurement
The policy impact of OECD well-being work
Lessons learned
Towards the development of tools for using well-being
measures in policy
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
GDP “measures neither wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country, it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile”
GDP is a flawed measure of people’s actual well-being, and
therefore an incomplete measure of a nation’s true progress
THE FIRST SOCIAL INDICATORS MOVEMENT The current well-being/progress/QoL/Beyond GDP
movement is not new, but the political momentum is
In the 1960s and 1970s, a movement to develop social indicators emerged in North America and Europe
NASA project in the 1960s
1970: OECD Social Indicators programme established (measuring health, education, employment and quality of working life, time and leisure, command over goods & services, physical environment, social environment, and personal safety)
1974: launch of Social Indicators Research
However, by the mid 1980s, most social indicator work disbanded or significantly reduced due to lack of policy support
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
THE OECD WORLD FORUMS In 2004, the OECD held the 1st World Forum on
Statistics, Knowledge and Policy in Palermo.
Purpose was to bring together a wide range of societal actors – not just statisticians – to talk about statistics
Rather than being a technical conference, it looked at the fundamental role of statistics to create knowledge for policy, and to underpin democracy: “we measure what we value”
It recognised that statistics are not politically neutral, and that deciding the best way to measure ‘progress’ requires an inclusive approach
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
WHY ARE STATISTICS ‘POLITICAL’? Counting requires decisions about categorising, about
what (or whom) to include and exclude
Measuring any phenomenon implicitly creates norms about what is too little, too much, or just right
Numbers can be ambiguous, and leave room for political struggles over interpretation
Numbers are used to tell stories, such as stories of decline
Numbers create the impression that very complex phenomena are simple, countable and precisely defined
Numbers can create political communities out of people who share some trait that has been counted
Numbers, by seeming to be so precise, help bolster the authority of those who count
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
THE ISTANBUL DECLARATION The 2nd World Forum, held in Istanbul in 2007 led to the
Istanbul Declaration, where signatories pledged to:
Encourage communities to consider for themselves what “progress” means in the 21st century
Share best practices on the measurement of societal progress and increase the awareness of the need to do so using sound and reliable methodologies
Stimulate international debate, based on solid statistical data and indicators, on both global issues of societal progress and comparisons of such progress
Produce a broader, shared, public understanding of changing conditions
Advocate appropriate investment in building statistical capacity, especially in developing countries
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
FROM DISCUSSION TO MEASUREMENT OECD continues to hold the World Forums every 2-3
years (5th World Forum to be held in Mexico in 2015)
However, there has been a shift in OECD work from
agenda-setting/ framing to developing policy measures
Stiglitz report in 2009 gave impetus and laid out the
roadmap for methodological work
Greater emphasis on household perspective and patterns of
distribution (inequalities)
Recognition that well-being is multidimensional
Need for both subjective and objective measures
Focus on both current well-being and sustainability
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
OECD WORK ON WELL-BEING
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
Plus: country reports, working papers,
Income Distribution Database,
Inclusive Growth Index, Big Data
analysis, Handbooks and Guidelines,
High Level Group, Forums
POLICY IMPACT OF OECD WELL-BEING WORK There is now a widespread consensus amongst
statisticians, policy makers, practitioners and researchers that policy needs to go ‘beyond GDP’
Many national leaders have made public declarations of the importance of measuring well-being (UK, Germany, United States)
There are many national and sub-national initiatives to develop broader indicators of progress (UK, Italy, Israel) - based on public consultation
Some national treasury offices have established well-being frameworks to assess national expenditure (New Zealand, Canada, Australia)
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
POLICY IMPACT OF OECD WELL-BEING WORK The OECD is only one of many actors working on these
issues, but widely seen as a leader (credible)
Continued to advocate for well-being measures after crisis
While there is much conceptual and symbolic use of well-being measures, examples of instrumental use is rare
To date, the policy impact of well-being measures has been closest to the enlightenment and interactive models - diffuse, with many actors, impacting primarily through agenda-setting and framing e.g multiple dimensions, importance of SWB
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
LESSONS LEARNED Lessons learned from the first social indicators
movement – why did it fail?
Social issues became overshadowed by economic concerns as the global economic situation worsened
Ideological shift towards conservatism and reduced government
Limited usefulness of social indicators to policy makers
Lack of unifying theoretical framework to compare with economic theory
Lack of common metric for aggregation comparable to money in economics
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
LESSONS LEARNED Many of these factors apply now too (crisis, reduced
government, lack of unifying theory) – what is
different?
Crisis has strengthened sense that traditional
measures were missing something important, and that
a disconnect exists between people’s experience and
aggregate economic measures
This has supported the narrative (idea) that change is
needed
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
GDP VS LIFE SATISFACTION IN EGYPT BEFORE 2011
Traditional measures did not predict the Arab Spring,
whereas indicators of the share of people “thriving” in the
country plummeted
LESSONS LEARNED But what are the barriers to instrumental use?
Ideas are changing but institutional change is needed
too
Well-being and quality of life are complex and multi-
dimensional
Unlike education, there are no ministries of well-being
Policy discussions on well-being/QoL tend to exist in
parallel with the economic policy process
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
LESSONS LEARNED GDP predominates policy discussions because
The prevailing policy belief is that economic growth is
the key goal for policy
It allows for the combination of multiple factors into a
single, powerful number that immediately
communicates its meaning
It is embedded in a widely-accepted theoretical
framework, with well-established institutions and policy
tools to support policy making focused on the
maximisation of aggregate productivity
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
LESSONS LEARNED How do we promote the goal of well-being as the
ultimate objective of policy-making?
Ideas are starting to change but this will be a slow
process
We need to continue to communicate knowledge on the
importance of well-being, tailored to different audiences
(including the general public)
We need to appeal to people’s interests, with a convincing
narrative for change (e.g. to those still focused on economic
growth, focus on the economic benefits of well-being policy)
We need to reform the way economics is taught to take into
account new thinking on well-being and inequalities
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
LESSONS LEARNED We need new institutional structures that are better
geared towards the delivery of well-being policy
Realising the potential of well-being data to design
better policies “requires change to policy-making
processes at both national and local level, incuding
breaking down silos between policy areas and
reforming the process for allocating budgets”
(Report of UK All-Parliamentary Group on Wellbeing Economics)
We need new frameworks and tools for well-being
policy analysis
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
POLICY TOOLS USING WELL-BEING MEASURES Composite indices
Inclusive growth index, ecological footprint, human development index
Accessibility of information over comprehensiveness/complexity
Need to be embedded in an analytical framework
Multiple criteria analysis
Designed to deal with decisions with multiple objectives – not all of which monetisable or easy to aggregate
Weighting and trade-offs are made explicit
Designed to assess different options, usually includes stakeholder deliberation
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
POLICY TOOLS USING WELL-BEING MEASURES Subjective well-being (SWB) measures
There is an increasing recognition of the need to measure and maximise SWB
SWB can be understood in a number of ways (affect, life satisfaction, eudomonia)
There are a number of ways in which SWB measurement can be used in policy (principally focused on life satisfaction)
To inform policy design, monitoring and evaluation as the dependent variable (e.g. work, health, city planning)
To provide input into other forms of analysis such as cost-benefit analysis
OECD has played a major role in increasing the profile of SWB measures in policy
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
QUESTIONS What do you think policy makers should be maximising
(e.g. SWB, capabilities, economic growth)?
How would you persuade a government leader of the
importance of taking into account well-being
measures?
How would you persuade the general public of the
importance of promoting policy for well-being?
How do you think knowledge on well-being is used in
policy in your country?
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS
WIKIPROGRESS Wikiprogress is an online space for sharing knowledge on
well-being and progress
It serves 3 main functions
A knowledge base providing resources for anyone interested in ‘progress’ (articles, reports, data, organisations)
A community portal for researchers, practitioners and engaged non-experts (events, blogs, discussions)
Communicating to a general public on the importance of measuring well-being for better policies
We would like your help!
Wikiprogress depends on volunteer contributions
We would like your help in creating a new portal for young people
INTRO THEORY PISA CLIMATE WELL-BEING WIKIPROGRESS