Orange Earth
UNPRESIDENTED:A World View of the US Election2016
2
Who am I?Rosalind Warner, PhDCollege Professor of Political
ScienceOkanagan CollegeEmail: [email protected]:
@rwarner23Blog: http://rozwarner.wordpress.com/
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I. 2016 Election Who Won? Why?II. Global ResponseIII. Back to
the FutureIV. The State of the StateV. The Great
UnravellingOverview
I. Who won? Why?
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Election result
http://www.cnn.com/election/results6
Mandate questions
The issue of the popular vote7
Blue States went Red:Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan &
WisconsinWomen, Hispanics & LatinosWhy?
He did so by holding reliably red Republican states and making
deep incursions into blue Democratic territory too, remaking the
electoral map and pulling off a dramatic upset that will resound in
political history.Clinton went into yesterdays election with a
supposedly formidable advantage: the blue wall of 18 states that
had reliably voted Democratic since the 1990s. It included states
in Americas declining industrial heartland like Pennsylvania,
Michigan, and Wisconsin,65 per cent of Hispanics and Latinos
supported Clintonthats actuallylowerthan the 71 per cent who backed
Obama in 2012. Its also lower than the 88 per cent of
African-Americans who supported Clinton.
Republicans held onto their majorities in the Senate and the
House of Representatives, sustaining only slight losses in each
chamber.
Take Ohio, for example, which has supported thewinner of every
presidential election since 1964.went with trump by a nose
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White, Non-College Voters
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5 Black Swans in order of likelihood
Voter fraud or rigged election in Hillarys favour#5
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Comey & Wikileaks
#4
Changes in the Media Landscape
#3
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Breitbart media ecosystem influenced mainstream coverage#3
Our own study of over 1.25 million stories published online
between April 1, 2015 and Election Day shows that a right-wing
media network anchored around Breitbart developed as a distinct and
insulated media system, using social media as a backbone to
transmit a hyper-partisan perspective to the
world.http://www.cjr.org/analysis/breitbart-media-trump-harvard-study.php
Columbia Journalism Review14
Not quite fake news#3
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Voter suppression & gerrymandering
#2
The kind of fraud prevented by such laws isonly slightly more
common than elves.Zoltan L. Hajnal, Nazita Lajevardi, and Lindsay
Nielson explains what these laws do accomplish, however. According
to Hajnal and his co-authors, turnout among Hispanic voters is 7.1
percentage points lowerin general elections and 5.3 points lower in
primaries in states with strict voter ID laws. The laws also reduce
turnout among African-American and Asian-American voters.White
turnout, according to their study, is largely unaffected.By
instituting strict voter ID laws, they explain, states can alter
the electorate and shift outcomes toward those on the right. In
states with such laws the influence of Democrats and liberals wanes
and the power of Republicans grows.
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Global trendsalienation, distrust and disaffection with
elites
#1
Rodrigo Duterte, President of the PhilippinesVladimir PutinBoris
Johnson and Nigel Farage in the Brexit Debate
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II. Global Response
if Donald Trump is what democracy looks like, dont sign us up
for it.---weakens the idea that it is worth adopting19
New tensions: China and Mexico
https://blueshift.io/international-trade.html
What strikes me about theUnited Statesis how balanced its trade
is withCanadaand Mexico. To hear some of the recent rhetoric about
Mexico, you would think the trade is completely one-sided goods
flowing in, money flowing out. In reality, Americas imports and
exports with Mexico are roughly equal ($240 billion and $294
billion). The same is true of Canada ($312 billion and $347
billion).With total imports of $1.9 trillion and total exports of
$2.1 trillion,Chinaholds the largest share of foreign trade. I dont
know whether Chinas trade policies are good or bad for the rest of
the world. But visually, it sure does look like an octopus with its
tentacles wrapped around the Earth.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-02/a-battle-plan-for-mexico-s-u-s-trade-war20
New warmth: Syria, DRC, Philippines, & Turkey
And Syrias President Assad hailed Trumps victory as promising
and called him a natural ally.
Moreover, some African despots likeJoseph Kabilaof the DRC have
hinted that they just needed to cling to power long enough to see
President Obama replaced by Trump. In Kabilas view, Trump wont care
too much if an African leader violates term limits and overstays
his time in power. Sadly, Kabila probably is right.
Duterte was one of the first to congratulate Trump on his
well-deserved victory. When Duterte was asked whether the two men
would get along, he simply replied that he thought they would
because he [Trump] has not meddled in the human rights. 6,000
people now killed in Philippiness
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoanwant the extradition of
Fethullah Glen and continued security cooperation. urgent
extradition of Fethullah Glen, the mastermind, executor and
perpetrator of the heinous July 15 coup attempt who lives on US
soil.21
Anti-Islamists, and
Islamic StateISIL in Mosul
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Russia
Putin sees Trump as a fellow leader who cares more about
hiscountrys national interests than about ideologies. In Moscows
view, a United States that is largely focused on itself is far more
welcome than a United States that seeks to dominate the world and
aggressively promote its values, norms, and principles in a
borderless environment.24
BritainA desperation after BrexitA New Anglo World?
Mays Washington trip left no doubt about Londons desperation to
pursue a trade deal with the US, which is the UKs biggest trade
partner after the EU. Trump encouraged her in this hope. Both
politicians have a political point to make to the EU. A quick deal
would be a totemic win for Brexit supporters, but for the economy,
speed matters less than the terms. What Trump means by America
First is buy American and hire American. His administration will
look to reduce the trade surplus with the US which the UK enjoys
today. It will want access for its agricultural produce,
pharmaceutical and financial services companies at a time when UK
farmers, the NHS and the City are already facing various degrees of
dislocation.25
Women
3m people in the US and millions around the world who marched
against the program of the new administration26
III. Back to the Future
Trumps Inaugural Speech: America First and American Carnage
Those who know their American history, however, were not so
easily soothed. For America First was also the slogan of the
isolationists during the 1930s, the last time the world descended
into a serious trade war. The question that can no longer be ducked
is whether it could happen again.
Trump has quickly given notice that the US would withdraw from
the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement,
and seek to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement
(Nafta) with Canada and Mexico. He has made clear that he will
punish countries that violate trade agreements. This is aimed
largely, though not exclusively, at China, which Trump seems intent
to weaken through trade issues.28
President Trumps political strategist, Steve Bannon, has said
that he wants tomake life as exciting as it was in the 1930s.
Daniel Kreiss, a University of North Carolina professor who
studies political language, said Mr. Bannons phrases emerge from a
very defined cultural and ideological movement that has grown out
of populist online communities like Breitbart.That vernacular, he
said, is used to articulate a very coherent story about what
America is, and what it should be, that is not reducible to a set
of policy positions but only if you know how to hear it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-administration-appointee-tracker/database/?tid=a_inl
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The 1930s: America FirstCharles Lindbergh and Joseph Kennedy
Lend-Lease Bill debated in CongressAmerica First Committee
formedFeared a crusade into EuropeProposed a neutrality pact with
Germany
Isolationism and America First involvement[edit]At the urging of
U.S. AmbassadorJoseph Kennedy, Lindbergh wrote a secret memo to the
British warning that a military response by Britain and France to
Hitler's violation of theMunich Agreementwould be disastrous; he
claimed that France was militarily weak and Britain over-reliant on
its navy. He recommended that they urgently strengthen their air
power to force Hitler to redirect his aggression against
"AsiaticCommunism."[125]In a controversial 1939Reader's
Digestarticle he wrote, "Our civilization depends on peace among
Western nations... and therefore on united strength, for Peace is a
virgin who dare not show her face without Strength, her father, for
protection."[128][129]Lindbergh deplored the rivalry between
Germany and Britain, but favored a war between Germany and
Russia.[125]Following Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovakia and
Poland, Lindbergh decried suggestions that the United States should
send aid to countries under threat,[further explanation
needed]writing "I do not believe that repealing the arms embargo
would assist democracy in Europe" and[130]"If we repeal the arms
embargo with the idea of assisting one of the warring sides to
overcome the other, then why mislead ourselves by talk of
neutrality?"[130]He equated assistance with war profiteering: "To
those who argue that we could make a profit and build up our own
industry by selling munitions abroad, I reply that we in America
have not yet reached a point where we wish to capitalize on the
destruction and death of war."[130]In late 1940 Lindbergh became
spokesman of the isolationistAmerica First Committee,[131]soon
speaking to overflow crowds atMadison Square Gardenand
Chicago'sSoldier Field, with millions listening by radio. He argued
that America had no business attacking Germany; he later wrote:I
was deeply concerned that the potentially gigantic power of
America, guided by uninformed and impractical idealism, might
crusade into Europe to destroy Hitler without realizing that
Hitler's destruction would lay Europe open to the rape, loot and
barbarism ofSoviet Russia's forces, causing possibly the fatal
wounding of western civilization.[132]Lindbergh speaking at an AFC
rallyIn his 1941 testimony before theHouse Committee on Foreign
Affairsopposing theLend-Lease bill, Lindbergh proposed that the
United States negotiate a neutrality pact with
Germany.[133]PresidentFranklin Rooseveltpublicly decried
Lindbergh's views as those of a "defeatist and appeaser", comparing
him toU.S. Rep. Clement L. Vallandigham, who had led
the"Copperhead"movement that had opposed theAmerican Civil War.
Lindbergh promptly resigned his commission as a colonel in the U.S.
Army Air Corps, writing that he saw "no honorable alternative"
given that Roosevelt had publicly questioned his loyalty.[134]At an
America First rally in September, Lindbergh accused three groups of
"pressing this country toward war[:] the British, the Jewish, and
the Roosevelt Administration":[135]Instead of agitating for war,
the Jewish groups in this country should be opposing it in every
possible way for they will be among the first to feel its
consequences. Tolerance is a virtue that depends upon peace and
strength. History shows that it cannot survive war and
devastation.[136]He went on to warn of "large [Jewish] ownership
and influence in our motion pictures, our press, our radio, and our
government", though he condemned Germany'santisemitism: "No person
with a sense of the dignity of mankind can condone the persecution
of the Jewish race in Germany." He continued,I am not attacking
either the Jewish or the British people. Both races, I admire. But
I am saying that the leaders of both the British and the Jewish
races, for reasons which are as understandable from their viewpoint
as they are inadvisable from ours, for reasons which are not
American, wish to involve us in the war. We cannot blame them for
looking out for what they believe to be their own interests, but we
also must look out for ours. We cannot allow the natural passions
and prejudices of other peoples to lead our country to
destruction.[137]Responding to criticism of his
speech,[138]Lindbergh denied he was anti-Semitic but did not back
away from his positions.Anne Lindbergh felt that the speech might
tarnish Lindbergh's reputation unjustly; she wrote in her diary:I
have the greatest faith in [Lindbergh] as a personin his integrity,
his courage, and his essentialgoodness, fairness, and kindnesshis
nobility really... How then explain my profound feeling of grief
about what he is doing? If what he said is the truth (and I am
inclined to think it is), why was it wrong to state it? He was
naming the groups that were pro-war. No one minds his naming the
British or the Administration. But to name "Jew" is un-Americaneven
if it is done without hate or even criticism.
Why?[139]Interventionistscreated pamphlets pointing out his efforts
were praised inNazi Germanyand included quotations such as "Racial
strength is vital; politics, a luxury". They included pictures of
him and other America Firsters using the stiff-armedBellamy
salute(a hand gesture described byFrancis Bellamyto accompany
hisPledge of Allegianceto theAmerican flag); the photos were taken
from an angle not showing the flag, so to observers it was
indistinguishable from theHitler salute.[140]Roosevelt disliked
Lindbergh's outspoken opposition to his administration's
interventionist policies, telling Treasury SecretaryHenry
Morgenthau, "If I should die tomorrow, I want you to know this, I
am absolutely convinced Lindbergh is a Nazi."[141]In 1941 he wrote
to Secretary of WarHenry Stimson: "When I read Lindbergh's speech I
felt that it could not have been better put if it had been written
byGoebbelshimself. What a pity that this youngster has completely
abandoned his belief in our form of government and has accepted
Nazi methods because apparently they are efficient."[142]Attitudes
toward race and racism[edit]Lindbergh elucidated his beliefs
regardingwhite racein a 1939 article inReader's Digest:We can have
peace and security only so long as we band together to preserve
that most priceless possession, our inheritance of European blood,
only so long as we guard ourselves against attack by foreign armies
and dilution by foreign races.[143]Lindbergh's speeches and
writings reflected his adoption of Nazi views on race and
religion.[144]Because of his trips to Nazi Germany, combined with a
belief ineugenics,[145]Lindbergh was suspected of being a Nazi
sympathizer.Lindbergh's reaction to Kristallnacht was entrusted to
his diary: "I do not understand these riots on the part of the
Germans," he wrote. "It seems so contrary to their sense of order
and intelligence. They have undoubtedly had a difficult 'Jewish
problem', but why is it necessary to handle it so
unreasonably?"[146]Lindbergh had planned to move to Berlin for the
winter of 193839. He had provisionally found a house inWannsee, but
after Nazi friends discouraged him from leasing it because it had
been formerly owned by Jews,[147]it was recommended that he
contactAlbert Speer, who said he would build the Lindberghs a house
anywhere they wanted. On the advice of his close friend,Alexis
Carrel, he cancelled the trip.[147]In his diaries, he wrote: "We
must limit to a reasonable amount the Jewish influence... Whenever
the Jewish percentage of total population becomes too high, a
reaction seems to invariably occur. It is too bad because a few
Jews of the right type are, I believe, an asset to any
country."
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The 1930s: Blood and Soil Nationalism
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IV. The State of the State
30 Days of Donald Trump
Thirty days of Donald TrumpFebruary 18th, 2017Donald Trump has
now been President for 30 eventful days. So much has happened, so
quickly, that it has been hard to keep track. Therefore, we have
collected the most notable events in one easy to read chart.January
20President Trump gives unusually dark Inaugural Address that is
immediately labeled the American Carnage SpeechU.S. President
Donald Trump celebrates after his speech during the Presidential
Inauguration at the US Capitol in Washington, D.C., U.S., January
20, 2017.Photo by: Saul Loeb/ReutersJanuary 21Over 3 million people
march in protest across the US, Trump reacts by claiming (falsely)
that inauguration crowds were largest ever. He personally calls
Parks Services director and orders him to produce photos to back
his claim (he is unable to do so).January 22Trump gives speech at
CIA building in front of wall memorializing fallen agents
boastsabout the size of hiswin. It is later revealed he brought his
own crowd to cheer. Advisor Kelly Anne Conway coins term
alternative facts.January 23Trump makes false claim millions voted
illegally. In unprecedented step,New York Timescalls the newly
elected President a liar. Presidentpromises to move US Embassy to
Jerusalem in faceof international outcry. Signs order to banfederal
money going to international aid groups which perform or provide
information on abortions.January 24President approves Keystone and
Dakota pipelines. Calls CNN Fake News. Threatens to send the feds
to Chicago. Badlands National Park tweets evidence of climate
change before being shut down.RELATED: Why they marched: A Donna
Ferrato photo essayJanuary 25Trump claims intelligence officials
tell him torture works. Over dinner, approves his first special
forces raid (in Yemen).Promises major investigation into voter
fraud, including those registered in two states immediately
revealed many of his family and aides fall into this category.
Signs orders to begin work on Mexican border wall and to deny
federal funding to400 sanctuary cities.January 26President
threatens to go back and take Iraqs oil. Doomsday clock moved
closer to midnight, citing Trump comments on nuclear weapons. Trump
announces Mexico will pay for wall by adding a 20 per cent import
tax (economists point out this will be paid by American consumers).
Mexican president cancels Trump meeting.January 27White House
removes any mention of Jews from Int. Holocaust Day statement.
Trump signs Muslim Ban; chaos ensues at airports. In Mexico,
Americas second largest trading partner, consumers launch
widespread boycotts of US-made products.U.S. President Donald Trump
speaks on the phone with Vladimir Putin, Russias president, during
the first official phone talks in the Oval Office of the White
House in Washington, D.C. on Saturday, Jan. 28, 2017.Photo by: Pete
Marovich/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesJanuary 28German Chancellor Merkel
explains Geneva Convention to Trump on phone. Top military and
intelligence officers removed from National Security Council, white
supremacist Steve Bannon added.Presidentcalls theNew York
Timesfalse news, and falsely claims the newspaperapologized to
readers and that subscriptions are dwindling (they are in fact at
record highs). Trump calls Russian President VladimirPutin. White
House reports they agreed on all issues including Syria, and
Ukraine. At one point Trump interrupts call to ask aides What is
START treaty?January 29Russia launches new large scale offensive in
Ukraine. White House calls Muslim ban massive success while global
condemnation grows. Dick Cheney calls ban against everything we
stand for. Downing St officials in London leakPresident has phobia
of stairs and inclines. Lebanese-American held by border officials,
asked if he loves his country. SEAL dies in botched Yemen raid,
several civilians killed.RELATED: What if Trumps constant lying
makes his false reality believable?January 30Trump blames airport
confusion on Delta computers, claims only 109 people affected by
Muslim ban (State Dept. data shows it is 90,000). President fires
Acting Attorney General Sally Yates for not defending ban.
Republicans in Congress begin to break with Trump.January
31President announces Supreme Court nominee during prime time TV
event. Spokesman Sean Spicer claims Muslim ban is not a ban,
contradicting earlier tweets from President calling it a
ban.February 1Trump threatens to send US troops into Mexico to deal
with the bad hombres on the border if President Pea Nieto doesnt
get the situation under control.Pentagon officials state that the
Yemen assault went forth without sufficient intelligence, ground
support, or adequate backup preparations. President name-drops
abolitionistFrederick Douglass making it clear he has noidea who he
is and thinks he is still alive (died 1895). Trump hangs up angrily
on Australian PM.RELATED: How Donald Trump destroyed journalisms
church of the savvyFebruary 2At national prayer breakfast Trump
asks people to pray for Schwarzeneggers TV ratings. Canada reports
spike in refugees from US. Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson and recipient of
Russias highest civilian honor is sworn in as Secretary of State.
Press reports$12m in Trump campaign funds spent on
hiscompanies.February 3Trump slams so called judge for blocking
Muslim ban. Conway caught making up Bowling Green Massacre to
justify Muslim ban.February 4Trump, complaining Friends of mine,
that have nice businessescant borrow money, deregulates banks.
Protests across US and Europe against the Muslim ban.A young girl
dances with an American flag in baggage claim while women pray
behind her during a protest against the travel ban imposed by U.S.
President Donald Trumps executive order, at Dallas/Fort Worth
International Airport in Dallas, Texas, U.S. January 29, 2017.Photo
by: Laura Buckman/ReutersFebruary 5President claims judges blocking
his Muslim ban are putting America at peril. Says US isnt so
innocent either, compared to Russia. Apple, Facebook, Google, and
94 other American corporations file opposition toban. White House
staff leak that President is angry at spokesman Sean Spicer because
he is being portrayed on SNL by a woman.February 6White House
accusesmedia of not reporting on terror attacks; Sean
Spicerprovides alist of unreported terror attacks which includes
some of the most heavily reported attacks, as well as attacks that
never occurred. President claims any negative popularity polls are
fake. It is revealed Trump is surprised to discover Bannon is on
the NSC as he never read the Executive Order making that
appointment. Speaker of the U.K. Parliament bans Trump from giving
speech, citing his sexism and racism. First Lady files a libel suit
claiming she has been prevented from profiting from
Presidency.RELATED: What Steve Bannon believesFebruary 7WH
officials report generals got Trump to agree to Yemen raid by
suggesting Obama would never have had the courage to do it.
President claims he does not know Putin directly contradicting
earlier claims that he did. Trump says US murder rate at 47 year
high (it is in fact near 47 year low).Sen. Al Franken
callsEducation Secretary nominee Betsy DeVos: the most incompetent
cabinet-level nominee I have ever seen. Trump falsely claimscabinet
nominee delays longest in history. (Not even longest in last
decade.)U.S. President Donald Trump speaks as he meets with county
sheriffs during a listening session in the Roosevelt Room of the
White House on February 7, 2017 in Washington, DC.Photo by: Andrew
Harrer/Getty ImagesFebruary 8Trump blasts Nordstrom for dropping
Ivankas products they respond it was due to poor sales. Announces,
I understand things, I comprehend very well, OK? Better than, I
think, almost anybody. President announces a $7 billion investment
by Intel (6 yearsafter President Obama made the same announcement).
Homeland SecuritySecretaryJohn Kelly says administration is
thinking aboutmaking visitors to US hand over cell phone PINs and
social media passwords.February 9Federal court rules against
restoring Muslim ban Trump tweets SEE YOU IN COURT. Head scratching
ensues. Kelly-Anne Conway illegally promotes Ivanka Trumps jewelry
line during Fox News interview.RELATED: The new underground
railroad to CanadaFebruary 10Immigration raids begin across US.
Reports that CIA has corroborated details of Steel Dossier linking
Trump to Kremlin. Trumpreiterates he has full confidence in
National Security Adviser Michael Flynn following more reports he
discussed sanctions with Russian Ambassador prior to
inauguration.February 11Trump manages missile crisis from
restaurant patio in Mar-A-Lago. More accusations against Gen. Flynn
and his Russian contacts. State visit to UK postponed due to
growing opposition among British public.Michael Flynn.Photo by: AP
Photo/Carolyn Kaster, FileFebruary 12Mediareportssenior US
intelligence officials claim spy agencies withholding intel from
Trump due to fears White House penetrated by Kremlin. Rampant
infighting as Presidential staff leak accusations against each
other to press. Trump reiterates support for Flynn.February 13Gen.
Flynn fired. Sears and Kmart drop Trump-branded items from their
online store. Photos emerge of Mar-A-Lago members posing with
officer in charge of Trumps nuclear football.RELATED: The five
biggest issues in Canada-U.S. relations right nowFebruary 14Serving
four-star US general wonders if American government is stable. It
is revealed Trump knew for weeks Flynn had lied about Russian
contacts. More reports CIA is aware Trump staff was incontact with
Russian intelligence agentsduring election. The Fed Chair Janet
Yellen rebuts Trumps claim banks arent lending, and warns of
economic disruption.February 15Trump claims Russian accusations are
just to cover-up the many mistakes made in Hillary Clintons losing
campaign. Whenasked about the recent rise of anti-Semitism in the
world, President responds byboasting about his Electoral College
victory.President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference in
the East Room of the White House in Washington, Thursday, Feb. 16,
2017.Photo by: AP Photo/Evan VucciFebruary 16The press conference.
I am not ranting. Announces Muslim ban will go ahead. Another
question about anti-semitism is once again answered with boasts
about Electoral College win. African reporter is asked to set up
meetings with Congressional Black Caucus. President claims sinking
Russian warship would boost his ratings. Fact-checkers later
tabulate 17 falsehoods.Republicans in Congress takestepstowards
investigating Trumps campaign and administrative ties to
Russia.RELATED: What if Trudeau became The Trump Whisperer?February
17Vice Adm.Harward turns down NSA job, citing chaos in White House.
There are reportssenior Republicans increasingly rattled by
Presidents behaviour. Trump claims CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC, and New York
Times are the enemy of the American people.Gallup reports Trumps
jobapproval ratings are lowest of any newly elected Presidentin
sixty years.February 18Trump holds re-election rally in Florida.
(30 days down, 1430 to go.)Share Excerpt
33
The Demise of State Capacity
Deconstruction of the Administrative State~Steve Bannon
Moreover, theNew York Timeswritesthat Customs and Border
Protection and U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services, the agencies
tasked with carrying out the policy, were only given a briefing
call while Trump was actually signing the order itself. Yesterday,
the Department of Justicegave a no commentwhen asked whether the
Office of Legal Counsel had reviewed Trumps executive
ordersincluding the order at hand. (OLC normally reviews every
executive order.)Customs and Border Protection and U.S. Citizen and
Immigration Services, the agencies tasked with carrying out the
policy, were only given a briefing call while Trump was actually
signing the order itself. Office of Legal Counsel had likely not
reviewed Trumps executive orders-number of posts still to be
filled
https://lawfareblog.com/malevolence-tempered-incompetence-trumps-horrifying-executive-order-refugees-and-visas
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2 Trends are becoming evidentClientelism & Rent-Seeking
The Demise of State Capacity
Most Americans are exceptionalists, we think we live outside of
history. Americans tend to think: We have freedom because we love
freedom, we love freedom because we are free.
-casual dinner meetings with clients at Mar-A-Lago, including
the heads of international business concerns as well as state
leaders, follow this pattern36
The Demise of State Capacity
-Trumps plans on deregulation of the financial sector,
especially repeal of Glass-Steagall Act, as well as de-regulation
of the energy industry and rollback on taxes37
Rent-Seeking Case in point
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-16/trump-adviser-carl-icahn-lobbies-for-rule-change-that-benefits-icahn
Carl Icahn was named as a special adviser on regulatory issues,
which theJournalnotes has major implications in light of Trump's
promises to get rid of 90% of federal regulations. Critics say
there are clearly conflicts of interest in appointing a leading
corporate investor to rewrite regulations affecting corporations,
theNew York Timesreports. "The corrupt nature of this arrangement
cannot be understated," a DNC spokesman said. "Voters who wanted
Trump to drain the swamp just got another face full of mud."
TheHillreports that the transition team says Icahn will be advising
"in his individual capacity and will not be serving as a federal
employee," meaning he will be exempt from conflict-of-interest
regulations.38
V. The Great Unravelling
World Order 101
40
The art of the deal.A simple deal was struck in 1945
41
World Order 101Adapted from: Rodrik, D. (2007). Dani Rodriks
weblog: The inescapable trilemma of the world economy.
http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/2007/06/the-inescapable.html
42
Between 1985 and 2007, trade grew at twice the rate of world
GDP, but since the 2008 financial crisis, it has hardly managed to
keep pace, at times even lagging behindTrade aint what it used to
be.V. The Great Unravelling~Magnus, G. (2017
World trade of goods and services was, until fairly recently, at
the leading edge of globalisation.. In the last five years, it has
grown at about 3 per cent annually, which is less than half the
rate of growth over the previous 30 years. There are few historical
precedents in the last 50 years for such weak performance, and none
for such prolonged sluggishness.43
World Order 101
44
Freedom on the decline
Number of states with a declining freedom index exceeds the
number that have improved for the last 11 years45
World Order 101
46
Biggest & deadliest outbreak of H7N9 bird flu in human
history
Threats are looming.but not the ones the US is preparing for460
cases confirmed in China since October
China is facing thebiggest and deadliest outbreak of H7N9 bird
fluin human history.The virus causes pneumonia and death in most of
its victims, which is why ittops the list of global flu pandemic
threats.As we learned from the World Health Organization this week,
460 human cases of thevirushave been confirmed in China since last
October the most of any flu season since H7N9 was first reported in
humans in 2013.His Tweets showed panic, bad judgment, and a
disregard for science, Klain said, not a great mindset for a
President facing an epidemic.Trump hasnt named a CDC director and
could cut 12 percent of its budgetAmerica first doesnt work during
pandemicsTrump has advocated for closing borders to countries
dealing with outbreaks. Thats dangerous.The fallout from Trumps
travel ban could hamper research collaboration that could save
lives
47
V. The Great UnravellingWhat does it mean for Canada?
Be worried
Leonard Cohen: As the much-missed Leonard Cohen put it, There is
a crack in everything, that is how the light gets in.The age group
of what will then be persons in the 18 to 45-year-old bracket,
including the entirety of themillennial generationfor the first
time, is expected to represent 40 percent of the United States'
eligible voters in 2020.[2]49
Canada is invested in the old order
50
Canada set adriftWhat will a New deal look like?Fewer (or more
conditional) security guaranteesMore use of force, less
diplomacyBilateralism in tradeMoral leadership?
51
I. 2016 Election Who Won? Why?II. Global ResponseIII. Back to
the FutureIV. The State of the StateV. The Great
UnravellingOverview
Thank you for listening!Questions?
Belluz, J. (March 4 2017). Trump has set the US up to botch a
global health crisis Vox.
http://www.vox.com/2017/3/4/14803596/trump-pandemic-response-global-health-cdcBenkler,
Y., Faris, R., Roberts, H., & Zuckerman, E. (2017). Study:
Breitbart-led right-wing media ecosystem altered broader media
agenda Columbia Journalism Review.
http://www.cjr.org/analysis/breitbart-media-trump-harvard-study.phpCohn,
N. (Dec 23 2016). How the Obama Coalition Crumbled, Leaving an
Opening for Trump The New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/23/upshot/how-the-obama-coalition-crumbled-leaving-an-opening-for-trump.html?_r=0CNN
Election Results 2016 http://www.cnn.com/election/resultsIm Not A
Snowflake Or A Whiner, Math Is Why Trump Is #NotMyPresident. (Dec
29th, 2016.) http://modernliberals.com/math-notmypresident/Fisher,
M. (Feb 24 2017). Stephen K. Bannons CPAC Comments, Annotated and
Explained The New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/24/us/politics/stephen-bannon-cpac-speech.htmlBIBLIOGRAPHY
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Fisher, M. (March 18 2017). The Risks of Pre-emptive Strikes
Against North Korea The New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/18/world/asia/us-north-korea-weapons.html?_r=0Giannini,
N. (Feb 7 2017). MAP: Freedom is declining as populism and
nationalism surge.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/freedom-around-the-world-134000468.htmlKendall-Taylor,
A., Frantz, E., & Wright, J. (2016). The New Dictators Foreign
Affairs.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2016-09-26/new-dictatorsLewis,
J. (March 9 2017). North Korea Is Practicing for Nuclear War
Foreign Policy.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/09/north-korea-is-practicing-for-nuclear-war/Magnus,
G. (2017). Trumpeting a global trade war Prospect Magazine.
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/donald-trump-us-politics-global-trade-warBIBLIOGRAPHY,
CONTD
Millhiser, Ian New study confirms that voter ID laws are very
racist. (Feb 17th 2017)
https://thinkprogress.org/new-study-confirms-that-voter-id-laws-are-very-racist-c338792c3f04#.pq60ce7yfQuinn,
R. (Dec 22 2016). Trump Appoints Peter Navarro to Head White House
National Trade Council.
http://www.newser.com/story/235837/death-by-china-author-will-be-trumps-trade-chief.htmlRodrik,
D. (June 7 2007). Dani Rodriks weblog: The inescapable trilemma of
the world economy.
http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/2007/06/the-inescapable.htmlSilva,
Alejandro & Urbina Alejandro A Battle Plan for Mexicos U.S.
Trade War Bloomberg View. (March 2, 2017)
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-02/a-battle-plan-for-mexico-s-u-s-trade-warWHO
Influenza at the human-animal interface. (Jan 17-Feb 14 2017).
http://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/Influenza_Summary_IRA_HA_interface_02_14_2017.pdf?ua=1Wittes,
Benjamin Malevolence Tempered by Incompetence: Trumps Horrifying
Executive Order on Refugees and Visas Lawfare. (Jan 28 2017).
https://lawfareblog.com/malevolence-tempered-incompetence-trumps-horrifying-executive-order-refugees-and-visas
BIBLIOGRAPHY, CONTD
