‘Young People and the Future of Emerging

Markets’Jo Boyden,

Director, Young LivesOxford Department of International Development

Outline

• PART 1: Why are we talking about young people?• PART 2: What do we know about young people’s development and

wellbeing? • PART 3: How well are the young served in emerging markets?• PART 4: What matters in planning for young people in emerging

markets?

Our focus: adolescence (ages 10-18) & youth (19-24)

PART 1: Why are we talking about young people?

Is it because of the demographics?

• The current global population is the youngest we will ever see:

there are over 1.8 billion people aged between 15-24; more than half of the total is under 30 years of age (NFPA, State of the World’s

Population 2014);

• Even though the proportion of young people to total population has plateaued or is falling in many countries, this youthful demographic will persist for some time.

Out of anxiety about youth destructiveness, radicalism and violence and its societal impact?

“High concentrations of unemployed, disenfranchised youth in rapidly growing urban centres has led to explosive conditions that have

resulted in social upheaval, political crisis, instability and violence”

(Ali 2014)

“Chile red-hot as student protest turns violent”

“69 People Jailed Following Violent Mexico Protests”

“A younger, more militant faction of Bahrain’s reform movement is threatening violence”

“In Egypt, disaffected youth increasingly drawn into

extremism”

Or because we want to tap into the energy, resourcefulness and agency of youth?

• Hilary Clinton’s address to young people in Tunisia:

“What is certain to me is that it will be the young people of Tunisia who determine what the future will be. And many have asked: Why …did young people here in Tunisia strike the first blows for freedom and

opportunity?”

Egypt's youth-led April 6 Movement in Tahrir Square: Nominated for the Nobel Prize in 2011

“We don't want violence, our fight is not versus the police or to destroy commercial shops … our fight is to recover the right to

education, on that we have been emphatic and clear” – Camilla Vallejo, Chile

YP Foundation: one of the largest youth based and youth run NGOs in India

Or because young people face immense challenges?

• The CRC, MDGs, EFA promised much & Significant changes during the life course of this generation of young - providing them with many new opportunities………but

• Despite macro-economic successes, poverty, inequality, social exclusion & hazardous environments remain significant concerns

• The young confront unprecedented levels of privation, suffering & uncertainty (UNICEF 2011; United Nations 2013)

They comprise around 50% of the world’s income poor - most living in middle-income countries (Sumner 2012)

In some “fragile states”, almost ¾ of the population is under 30 (Yifu Lin 2012) ‘New’ challenges (e.g. economic & socio-cultural transition, climate change, depletion of natural resources,

exponential rates of urbanization & unemployment) + widespread political & armed conflict & displacement

• Approx. 200 million children under 5 are failing to achieve their developmental potential (Engle et al. 2007; Wachs and Rahman 2013; Walker, et al. 2007)

Whatever the motive, there is much at stake…

Many observers equate the development of the young with that of nations:

• Mission of Center on the Developing Child, Harvard University:

‘We view healthy child development as the foundation of economic prosperity, strong communities, and a just society, and our mission is to advance that vision by using science to enhance child well-being through innovations in policy and practice.’

Many argue that a prosperous future for society depends on individuals being sufficiently skilled to take advantage of life’s ‘opportunities’:

• The World Bank Group’s Education Strategy 2020:

‘Simply put, investments in quality education lead to more rapid and sustainable economic growth and development. Educated individuals are more employable, able to earn higher wages, cope better with economic shocks, and raise healthier children.’

PART 2: What do we know about young people’s development and wellbeing?

Young people are disproportionately affected by

societal challenges•Often they have less knowledge, experience & power & control fewer assets than adults

•In some arenas (e.g. social media, internet etc.) they are better informed & skilled than adults, who therefore cannot provide guidance

•Traditional social institutions are losing authority & becoming less able to support young people

•Developmental processes increase young people’s susceptibility to external forces: Development is genetically influenced, but modifiable by the environment Deficits & risk in early life heighten probability of developmental loss or behavioural pathology The diverse developmental systems interact with each other, with cumulative effect

So the context matters enormously• Material conditions, physical resources, political-economic & institutional structures,

social norms & relations all play a part

• Many are disadvantaged because of both age & other aspects of their identity (class, gender, religion, nationality, ethnicity, sexual orientation) (Kabeer 2005, Stewart 2002)

• The most proximal microsystem has most impact initially (e.g. intra-familial abuse, household poverty = significant risks)

• Peer influences are increasingly important in adolescence & youth

• Distal factors (political violence, discrimination, service shortfalls) are key - but grossly under-researched

• The world as it is perceived also matters: e.g. inequality & relative poverty significantly undermine wellbeing (Wilkinson and Pickett 2009) - & incite unrest

Critical phases when the impact is greatest

• Early childhood : the first 1,000 days of life following conception are key = when the framework is formed

• Adolescence (10 – 18 years): dynamic processes of biological (brain & sexual matu ration) & social development (differentiating self from others, forming self-control, self-esteem & self-effi cacy):

behaviour advances towards adaptive long-term goals, balancing impulsivity, exploration & defiance, & establishing effective societal participation (Davidson et al 2015)

multiple social transitions (education, employment, partnership, parenthood) that can be thwarted, contradictory or reversed - may lead to frustration, conflict with others.

Gender makes a significant difference

• Girls enter puberty up to 2 years before boys

• Many adolescent girls experience momentous social changes (leaving home, getting married, becoming mothers) & have responsibilities that they are not ready to assume

• Decisions about girls shouldering these responsibilities are often made by others

• Girls under age 15 = 5 times more likely to die in childbirth than are women in their 20s; infant mortality is 60% higher among children born to mothers under 19 years (UNICEF 2009)

• Unequal access to & control of assets affect expenditure on & investment in younger generations, often with less outlay on girls than boys.

PART 3: How well are the young served in emerging markets?

what do emerging markets offer the young? what are the implications of high concentrations of

young people for the future of emerging markets?

Selected findings from Young Lives

Study design:• Mixed methods longitudinal study - of the experiences, determinants &

outcomes of childhood poverty : to influence policy

• Following 12,000 children in Ethiopia, India (Andhra Pradesh & Telangana), Peru & Vietnam over 15 years

• 2 age groups born 7 years apart interviewed at same ages to allow comparison & tracking of changes in their lived environments

• 5 survey rounds & 4 waves of qualitative research

• Pro-poor sample: over 80 sites across the 4 countries reflecting country diversity, rural-urban, livelihoods, ethnic, religious differences; roughly equal numbers of boys & girls.

Some successes in India, Peru & Vietnam

• The MDGs, EFA etc. + macro-economic growth have benefited the young:The economies of three countries grew rapidly between 2002 & 2012There have been some important pro-poor, pro-youth policies Leading to infrastructural improvements, increased service access & reduction in

absolute poverty overall among the young

• Young Lives finds important improvements by 2013: Peru: 94% of the households had electricity, 93% had improved sanitation, & 79%

had access to piped waterIndia : 97 % of 12-year-olds were enrolled in elementary schools (a rise for girls from

87.3% in 2006 to 96.6% in 2013)Vietnam: in 2013 nearly 20% of the children were stunted at age 12, compared with

30% of 12-year olds in 2006.

But inequality and relative poverty persist

• India: Young rural women were more than twice as likely to be a mother by age 19

than young urban women (24% versus 11%) Early school departure rates for 19-year olds from Scheduled Caste & Scheduled

Tribe groups were almost double the rate for Other Caste groups From ¼ (boys) to ½ (girls) of the test score differences between children in these

groups & their more advantaged peers resulted from under-nutrition (Lopez Boo and Canon, 2013, p.4).

• Vietnam, though more equal: School enrolment for the better off 1/3rd of children was 40% higher than that of

the poorest 1/3rd by age 15 52% of ethnic minority children were stunted compared with 14% of ethnic

majority children

Gender-based disparities• Disparities widen in adolescence:

In Vietnam an initial difference of 5 percentage points in school enrolment between poor children & the rest more than tripled between ages 12 & 15

• But boys are not always advantaged:

Peru & Vietnam: poor boys are more likely than poor girls to have left school by age 15

Gender gaps in school achievement grow between ages 12 & 15 - strongly pro-boy in India & pro-girl in Vietnam

• And gender is less significant than other factors as a cause of disparity:

India: almost no differences in boys’ and girls’ scores in maths at 8 years, but gaps between poorer & wealthier children at this age are considerable

Learning crisis• India & Peru: poor quality services for the poor – schools amplifying inequalities between

the young (Woodhead, Dornan & Murray, 2013)

• Peru: Even when in the same schools, poorer & ethnic minority children are less well served

(Cueto, Escobal, Penny, & Ames, 2011)

School-quality differences explain 78% of the achievement gap in maths when more & less disadvantaged young people are compared (Krutikova, Rolleston & Aurino, 2014)

• India: Declining quality of (& confidence in) government schools -

Maths learning levels of 12-year-olds had declined by 14 percentage points in 2013 as compared to 2006

24 % of 8-year-olds in the older cohort were in private schools in 2001 whereas by 2009 44% of the younger ones were at the same age

Other studies point to: health challenges

• 10-25 years is the healthiest age group in emerging markets………..but

• Environmental toxins (e.g. lead exposure, air pollution) have devastating life-long impacts on learning, behavior & achievement (Engle et al. 2007; Gavidia, et al 2009)

• Young at in creased risk of specific problems – e.g. STIs, meningitis, & trauma (civil & interpersonal violence, unintentional injury - accidents) . Often leading to mental illness & substance-use

• Communicable diseases (e.g. HIV, TB, malaria ) are the leading causes of Disability Adjusted Life Years in 10-19 year olds (Davidson, Grigorenko, Boivin, Rapa & Stein 2015)

• Many psychiatric disorders begin in adolescence: anxiety & depression rates about double for girls compared to boys (Kessler 2003)

• 14-19 years = the peak age for violence towards self (self-harm & suicide) & others (e.g. partner violence, crim inal acts) & for experiencing violence; boys = more frequently the perpetrators & vic tims

Youth under/unemployment• Youth unemployment can be twice or more the national average (World Bank 2012)

• Youth - far more likely to be laid-off & in poorly-paid, insecure informal jobs without proper entitlements

• Prolonged unemployment undermines self-esteem & motivation (Ryan 2000), leaving some permanently disadvantaged economically

• Together with poor-quality jobs, unemployment is a major cause of youth migration – both ‘brain drain’ & movement into emerging markets (e.g. India, South Africa)

PART 4: What matters in planning for young people in emerging markets?

Historical legacy shapes our thinking today

• Human development – a universal biological process humans born dependent, irrational, weak & progress in fixed stages to adult

competence & autonomy those who do not conform = deviant ‘adolescence’(14-24 years) a time of ‘storm & stress’ (G. Stanley Hall 1904)

• Modern concern with ‘risk’ can degenerate into essentialised stereotypes: young men demonised as ‘troublesome’, a ‘risk to society’ young women victimised as ‘troubled ’, ‘at risk from society’ (Stainton-Rogers &

Stainton-Rogers 1992)

• This thinking justifies: securitisation & control, e.g. in Latin America against ‘out of place’ young people

• Will the SDGs make a significant difference?

The discourse is shifting away from ‘wellbeing’ towards

‘productiveness’• Macro economic growth = the goal – human capital formation rather than human

development:underscores the consequences of early life deprivation for adult productivity &

national economic prospectshighlights economic efficiency of investing in early childhood… turning the young into productive adults by promoting entrepreneurism,

financial literacy & free market ideology

• Onus on individuals: structural constraints are ignored

• Neglects social justice & human rights

• And what happens now that the economies of emerging markets are slowing down?

Be wary of misplaced priorities• Blaming the ‘youth bulge’ for societal destabilisation & generational conflict:

contains/undermines movements for social reform, rebellion hides the diversity of actors and groups involved in dissent (e.g. Arab Spring) silences wider discussion of class, race, gender, religion & inequalities

• Demand rather than supply: An assumption that low aspirations & ignorance among the poor are the problem In practice, states are in retreat – structural adjustment & private sector provision

• Blaming culture: Elimination of ‘harmful traditional practices’ (early & forced marriage, FGM etc.) against girls

via engineered cultural change Programmes to prevent boys from becoming radicalized, recruited into terrorist groups

• Policy rather than politics: Technocractic remedies rather than real change via prevention, governance, reform Economic growth rather than redistribution to reduce poverty & inequality

Be wary ………………• Global institutions underplay the collapse in demand for labour - focusing on challenges

of labour market entry for youth (Sukarieh and Tannock 2014)

• ‘Skills gap’ rhetoric:Youth labour-market difficulties = education system failures alone (World Economic Forum)E.g. Arab region - idea that youth lack right skills justifies business-led education

reform (e.g. Egypt, Yemen, Libya) (Sukarieh & Tannock 2014)•Yet:

Many unemployed youth have relatively high qualifications Unemployed university graduates at heart of many uprisings

• Misplaced responses:After global financial crisis 40/131 countries in Europe, Latin America, Middle East &

sub-Saharan Africa reformed labour laws: most weakened employment protectionsEfforts to stimulate youth employment with youth wage subsidies (e.g. Employment

Tax Incentive in South Africa = ‘government subsidising indecent work’ for young)

What role for young people themselves?

• Young people are not the passive recipients of experience but engage actively with the structures and processes around them, building competencies through such engagement

• Yet despite their demographic presence, influence globally as a market niche & importance for policy, their voices are still largely missing from debates on the future of their societies

• Rarely is risk considered in relation to what young people identify as the main threats & supports to their wellbeing or how they manage risk in daily life

• Developmental theory essentialises the young to become the same as us (with limited possible futures)

• Similarly, so-called developing nations are cajoled to become the same as industrialized nations

• In so doing, we deny the young their own trajectories, their own histories, & futures that are different, & perhaps better, than ours (Aitken, Lund, Kjørholt 2007)

Young people’s self-organisation & collective action is vital

• MANTHOC: a movement of adolescent & youth workers in 10 Peruvian provinces:

Began in 1976 to defend the rights of young workers, dignifying labour & improving the conditions under which they work

Undertakes community projects

• GALA (Gay and Lesbian Memory in Action, South Africa):est. 1997. Mobilises LGBTI youth to take action against discrimination (e.g.

2015 Queer Youth Exchange Project in Johannesburg)

• Call for a realization and re-imagining of the full potential of young people

The stark & oppressive outcomes of neo-liberal agendas & global corporate capitalism (the commodification of lifestyles, global sex trade, wars & displacement that increasingly involve the young ) on the world’s young are not inevitable

The possibility of their participation in, & construction of, a very different form of globalized development

Stuart C. Aitken, Ragnhild Lund & Anne Trine Kjørholt (2007)

THANK YOU!