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The Kenyan rural communities face a myriad of challenges including poverty, food security, scarcity of water, and challenges emerging due to global warming and climate change. Notable direct effects include higher temperatures and drastic changes in rainfall patterns, consequently aberrant transmission models, and increased spread of existing vector-borne diseases, emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases. Major challenges for adaptation interventions in Kenya include insufficient local level historic and future climate change information. Given the complexity of livestock and crop-livestock systems, a mix of technological, policy and institutional innovations will inevitably be required. Here we propose approaches that can be used to develop reliable climate databases and to incorporate these data into predictive risk models. We hypothesize that techniques should be further refined to produce detailed relational databases. The proposed climate system models are to provide insights on climate variability and impacts on livestock, they are designated as problem-solving tools that allow users to process and analyse climate data in a multidisciplinary context. They should be ideal for storage, archiving, display, analysis and interpretation of the localised impacts, and the importance of identifying appropriate options that can help livestock keepers adapt to climate change. However we reckon the overarching issues of shrinking government budgets, curriculum suitability and need for collaboration to expand our knowledge of how climate change and increasing climate variability will affect livestock systems and the livelihoods of the people who depend on them.
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TOWARDS A CLIMATE CHANGE DATABASE FOR LIVESTOCK ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION IN
KENYA
Nanyingi M O 1, 3 § and Thumbi S M2,4
1 Ministry of Livestock and Development, District Veterinary Office, PO BOX 60 -50135, Khwisero, Kenya,
2International Livestock Research Institute, Naivasha Road, P.O. Box 30709-00100, Nairobi, Kenya3Kenya Scientific Analysts, P.O. Box 531-00202, Kenyatta National Hospital, Nairobi, Kenya,
4University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories, 15 W Mains Rd, Edinburgh, City of Edinburgh, Scotland
§Corresponding author: [email protected], +254721117845
Presented at 45th KVA Scientific Conference ,Kisumu Hotel
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION
Over 1 billion people (20% of human population) globally depend on livestock resources supported by Climate sensitive resources fodder and water.
Climate change projections to the year 2030 indicate increasing temperature changes with doubling of GHE (CO2) levels from baseline scenarios resulting into a decline in precipitation in the semi-arid areas.
The IPCC predicts that by 2100 the increase in global average surface temperature may be between 1.8 and 4.0 °C. With global average temperature increases of only 1.5 – 2.5°C degrees, approximately 20-30 percent of plant and animal species are expected to be at risk of extinction (FAO, 2007).
Understanding the indigenous knowledge and practices in response to environmental calamities, management of livestock diseases will be of benefit to design interventions that will support local communities to adapt to or mitigate the effects of climate change.
Livestock deaths(2009) and breakdown of marketing
infrastructure.
Flooding, Soil erosion and land degradation
Massive Crop failure and animal animal fodder deficits
Domestic water shortage and Water conflicts(Pastoralists)
Wildlife mortality and loss of biodiversity
Human & animal habitat & Infra structure degradation
Emerging and Re-emerging infectious diseases (vector
borne and Zoonoses, RVF 2006, Malaria,Dengue, Trypanosomosis)
THE KENYAN CASE
Kenya 2009
BUDALANGI PERENNIAL FLOODING
ICTs and Knowledge platforms in Climate change Adaption and Mitigation (CCAM)
Adapting to climate change requires information that is Useful, Meticulous, Meaningful and Timely. Knowledge sharing represents a key strategy in climate change adaptation and building resilience (Al-Gain, 2008).
Requirements for Knowledge Sharing in CCAM:
A Database / Repository Unit that holds key information on CCAM for livestock management under low-input systems
A functional CCAM service delivery system for livestock management
RESEARCH QUESTIONS ?
1. How do we establish mitigation and adaption strategies to challenges of a changing climate ?
2. What necessary information should be collected, packaged and availed to the public for preparedness?
3. What is the role of ICT in provision of information and hence increase the adaptive capacity of rural communities ?
OBJECTIVE
Develop a framework for functional climate change database as a interactive repository of information on climate change mitigation and adaption for low-input livestock production systems in Kenya.
Capturing novel livestock management practices in response to extreme climatic patterns and sharing the information.
METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK
Situational Analysis by Accessing relevant data and Local knowledge Systems
Participatory approaches : Understanding the indigenous knowledge and practices in response to environmental calamities, will be of benefit to design interventions that will support local communities to adapt to or mitigate the effects of climate change.
Participatory Monitoring, Evaluation and positive community feedback mechanisms
DATABASE ARCHIVED INFORMATION
1. Animal breeding & management in a changing climate Animal genetic resources for ASALs
Adaptive traits & animal survival in harsh climates
Stock selection for fitness-related traits
Breeding for phenotypic plasticity & robustness
Novel livestock management techniques (coping strategies during droughts)
Herd sizes and dynamics in relation to seasonality
Restocking and Destocking processes
Transboundary Animal diseases (TAD)
DATABASE ARCHIVED INFORMATION
2. Environment, landscape and Seasonal trends Mapping and spatial analysis of climate vulnerability hotspots by
GIS
Modelling of livestock breed suitability as a function of climate data
Rainfall patterns and water bodies geographical locations
Pasture and fodder distribution in relation to human settlement
Livestock densities and Migratory routes
3. Economics and Resources Per capita incomes of households
Available resources for funding
DISSEMINATION: ACCESS TO DATABASE Publications: Conferences, Pictorials, Pamphlets,
Booklets, predictive risk maps
Electronic: Documentaries, TV Series, Radio(Vernacular EWS)
Internet: Interactive websites (www.kenclimateadapt.com)
Repository unit interlinked to weather stations, MOLD
Legislative institutions : Climate change Bill under PMO.
Mobile telephony: SMS alerts(EWS) to query database (M-janga), feedback on rainfall, temperature, water
Climate information & communications network : Rural based linked regionally
OUTCOMES
Information base for climate change adaptation for low-input livestock production systems. Thus key information on aspects of CCAM strategies can be outlined for policy change.
Livestock service delivery provision through a coordinated multi-stakeholder clientele system.
Stock owners will benefit by being provided with pertinent technical information from varied sources hence enhancing their better decision making in relation to stock management under harsh climate.
DISCUSSIONS AND INSIGHT A CCAM Database is relevant for improving adaptation to
climate change for livestock production systems. It holds vital information for the design & implementation of robust climate change adaptation and mitigation measures for low-input livestock production
This framework prioritizes service delivery to provide herd owners with current information on climate change adaptation under environmental stress. The model emphasizes a local feedback response from herd owners for future improvements.
The proposed climate system models are to provide insights on climate variability and impacts on livestock, they are designated as problem-solving tools that allow users to process and analyse climate data in a multidisciplinary context.
CONCLUSION Databases will outline development of preventive mechanisms
for vector and water borne diseases, surveillance for epidemics that follow episodic weather events and improvement of infrastructure in the veterinary sector.
The ability to adapt to climate variability and change will be affected by a range of institutional, technological and cultural factors at national, regional and local levels.
There is urgent need for multidisciplinary collaboration to expand our knowledge of how climate change and increasing climate variability will affect livestock systems and the livelihoods of the people who depend on them.
There is need to shift to scaling up the implementation of evidence based measures to reduce the impacts of climate change in low and middle income countries in Sub saharan Africa.
THANK YOUSUGGESTIONS AND QUESTIONS ARE WELCOME
