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Wednesday, October 13, 2010 Jeffrey Sachs Director, Columbia University Earth Institute “Ending Poverty in Our Generation: Still Time if We Try” Ending extreme poverty is not a dream but a practical possibility. Improvements in science, technology, and global networks make possible advances in wellbeing at unprecedented rates. Yet a high degree of social organization is needed for success. Sachs will sketch the main contours of an effective global effort against poverty, hunger, and disease to the year 2025. Sponsored by the Rockefeller Center for Public Policy at Dartmouth College http://rockefeller.dartmouth.edu
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Ending Poverty In Our Generation: Still Time if We Try
Prof. Jeffrey D. SachsDirector of the Earth Institute at Columbia University
Rockefeller Center for Public Policy and Civic Leadership
Dartmouth CollegeOctober 13, 2010
The Poverty Trap:
Income is below subsistenceSaving is zero or negativePopulation growth, climate change, environmental degradation, poor governance, and conflict are all leading to further decline
The Solution: Targeted Investments to End the Poverty Trap
Raise income and saving, reduce population growth, reverseenvironmental degradation, and create self-sustaining growth
The Millennium Development Goal Strategy
A Parable of a Millennium Village
Subsistence is $300 per personInitial Income (Output) is $200 per person (“sub-subsistence”)Saving is zero when income is below subsistence ($300)Saving is 50% of net income above subsistence ($300)
Improved inputs (fertilizer-seed) raise net income by $2.50 for each $1 of input up to a maximum of $250 of inputs
All saving is devoted to agriculture inputs up to $250All saving beyond $250 is devoted to capital improvements withmarginal productivity of 0.3
Three Scenarios:
No Official Development Assistance (ODA): Poverty Trap
Two-Year ODA for inputs: Temporary boost to income, not sustainable
Four-Year ODA for inputs: Boost to income is sustainable
After four years, the household has built up income sufficiently to self-finance inputs on an ongoing basis
ODA Levels in Three Scenarios
Income Levels in Three Scenarios
Household Saving in the Three Scenarios
Input Use: Sustainable Input Use with Four-Year Input Subsidies
Africa is a big and diverse continent!
Five Core Interventions
• Food production: Agricultural inputs
• Access to primary education (school meals, IT)
• Access to health care
• Access to infrastructure: roads, electricity, telephony and IT communication, safe water and sanitation, irrigation
• Business development
Built on Community-Led Development and Local Professional Management
AGRICULTURE
• Fertilizer• High-yield Seeds• Treadle Pumps and Supplemental Irrigation• Agricultural extension
HEALTH
• Construction of clinics (Level 3)• Upgrading hospitals (Level 4)• Medical supplies • Improved staffing and salaries for health workers• Training of Community Health Workers• Improving access to family planning services
EDUCATION
• Construction of high-quality classrooms• Books and supplies• Teacher training• Mid-Day Meals• Computers• Internet connectivity in some schools• School-to-School Program
INFRASTRUCTURE
• Extending Cell phone coverage throughout the village• Internet connectivity in schools, health centers• Road grading, road construction• Increasing access to water resources, innovative electrical systems
TARGET SECTORS AND EXAMPLES OF INTERVENTION STRATEGIES
FUNDING STRUCTURE
Source: Earth Institute, Millennium Promise
Donors
Partner organizations (e.g. NGOs, corporate)
Local and National Governments
Village members
$60
$20
$30
$10
Village costs per person per yrUS dollars
Outcomes in Sauri, Kenya
Comparisonof 2005 and2009
Harvests of Development, 2010, www.millenniumvillages.org
0
510
1520
2530
3540
4550
2006 Q3, 2007 Q4, 2007 Q1, 2008 Q2, 2008 Q3, 2008 Q4, 2008
Institutional Deliveries in Ruhiira cluster (% of total births)
Institutional Deliveries in Uganda cluster (% of total births)
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
2.1
2.2
2007 2008
Utilization rates of health clinics in Ruhiira Cluster (No. of visits per person per year)
Mwandama, Malawi
Sauri, Kenya
Sauri, Kenya
Mayange, Rwanda
Bonsaaso, Ghana
THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS
1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
2. Achieve universal primary education
3. Promote gender equality and empower women
4. Reduce child mortality
5. Improve maternal health
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
7. Ensure environmental sustainability
8. Develop a global partnership for development
Note that 7 million of the8.8 million deathsoccurred in Sub-Saharan Africa andSouth Asia
The Lift-Off Since 2000 in Global Financing for Health(yet still only one-third of recommended levels)
Source: OECD Development Assistance Committee
Some Choices for America
Figure 12.3: Pentagon Spending and Malaria Needs
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
Two Days'Pentagon
Spending (FY 2007)
Malaria Control forAfrica (annual)
Bed Nets for allAfrican SleepingSites (five years'
coverage)
President's MalariaBudget (FY 2007)
Bill
ion
s o
f U
.S. $
Source: Data from Congressional Budget Off ice (2007) and Teklehaimanot, McCord and Sachs (2007)
Towards a Global Ethic
“So let us not be blind to our differences, but let us also direct attention to our common interests and the means by which those differences can be resolved. And if we cannot end now our differences, at least we can help make the world safe for diversity. For in the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet. We all breathe the same air. We all cherish our children's futures. And we are all mortal.”
John F. KennedyAmerican UniversityJune 10, 1963