Global Environmental Change

Global Environmental Change

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© 2011. Johns Hopkins UniversityExcept where attributed

Global Environmental ChangeChange

Brian S. Schwartz, MD, MS

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Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public HealthDepartmental of Environmental Health Sciences

July 29, 2011

Overview• Contexts• General definitions• General definitions• Key problems of GEC• For each

–Problem definition and scope –Some scientific evidence

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Some scientific evidence–Health risks


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Sustainable Development"Meeting the needs of the

Contexts

Meeting the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs."

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Gro Harlem Brundtland, World Commission on Environment and Development (Brundtland Report) [subsequently became Director-General of WHO], 1987

• Development: improving human condition in all its aspects (economic, sociopolitical, environmental)

*

environmental)• Sustainable development: by means and to

end points that are consistent with maintaining improved conditions indefinitely

• Sustainable well-being: sustainable development to achieve well-being where it is

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p gabsent and putting the maintenance & expansion of well-being onto a sustainable basis where it is being provided unsustainably today

* Assistant to President Obama for Science & Technology, Director of White House Office of S & T Policy, & Co-Chair of President’s Council of Advisors on S & T


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Three Essential Pillars of Human Well-being

• Economic conditions and processes– Employment, income, wealth, markets, trade,

productive technologies

• Sociopolitical conditions and processes– Law & order, national & homeland security,

governance, justice, education, health care,

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g jscience, culture, arts, liberty, privacy

• Environmental conditions and processes– Air, water, soils, mineral resources, biota,

nutrient cycles, climatic processes

The preservation and

enhancement of all three

are the core responsibilitiesare the core responsibilities

of societies

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www.tahan.com

Corridors.conservation.orgTexasliberal.com

Nativeborncitizen.com


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Which of Three is Most Important?• Each is indispensable• Failure of any one can mean collapse of y p

the human enterprise• The three interact

– Economic systems cannot function without inputs from environmental system or stability provided by sociopolitical system

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– Societal stability cannot be maintained in the face of environmental disaster (even in the most prosperous countries)

• Social disruption may be the main outcome of concern

The world now faces unprecedented threats to these

three pillars – arising from resource limitations and uses – and thus to

human well-being.

This lecture is about trying to

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y gconvince you about the existence and magnitude of some of those

threats …


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Environmental Signals at Global Level

• Atmospheric CO2

• Temperature

S l l

• Soil quality

• Pasture lands

• Sea levels

• Ecosystems

• Desertification

• Fisheries

• Coral reefs

• Storm intensity

• Forests

• Rangelands

• Glaciers

P l i

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Co a ee s

• Water tables

• Biodiversity losses

• Soil quantity

• Polar ice caps

• Species losses

• Toxicants in air, water, soil

“We know from earlier

civilizations that the lead

indicators of economic

decline were environmental,

not economic. The trees went

first, then the soil, and finally

th i ili ti it lf T

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the civilization itself. To

archeologists, the sequence

is all too familiar.”


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Peak oil and the

Threat #1. To all three pillars.

M. King Hubbert, 1903-1989. Geophysicist. • He made a startling prediction first made public in 1949

coming era of energy scarcity

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He made a startling prediction, first made public in 1949, that the fossil fuel era would be of very short duration.

• In 1956 he predicted U.S. oil production would peak in 1970; he was scoffed at; he was exactly correct.

Our environment problem is mainly caused by energy; our energy problem is mainly because there is not enough environment.

The bell-shaped curve of production – Hubbert’s

Peak.

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Hubbert’s original estimateScientific American, Energy and Power, 1971

Predicted world oil production would peak around 2000

It is a geologic reality that cannot be overcome with more drilling or new technology


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Note: Hubbert’s method worked

very well in 1956 to predict U.S.

Oil-producing Countries Past Peak

peak in 1970

13NGL = natural gas liquids

Monthly world oil production and prices, 2002–2010World oil production has stalled

Flat from 2005-10 while demand increased 2-5%/year

Data from US EIAFigure from Post Carbon Reader Ch 19


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• Non-OPEC peaked in 2007• OPEC and thus world peaked in 1Q2008

WSJ Blogs, Environmental Capital, 5/4/09“Peak Oil: Global Oil Production’s Peaked”

(Raymond James, financial & energy investment services & analysis)

• OPEC, and thus world, peaked in 1Q2008“… contention rests on simple argument: OPEC oil

production … fell … as oil prices were above $100 per barrel, a sign of the ‘tyranny of geology’ …”

“… a paradigm shift of historic proportions.”

DailyDaily production vs.

price$

Oildrum.com

20031997

20052003

2004

2004

2005

2005 2005

2006

2005

2006

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2007

2006

20082009

2006 2009


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OVERVIEW

GLOBAL HEALTH

FOOD

PUBLIC HEALTH DEPARTMENTS

URBAN FORM

CONFLICT

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COMMUNICATION

HEALTH CARE

URBAN FORM

Implications of Peak Oil Are Myriad• Economies – high correlation between per

capita GDP and per capita energy inputs• Food – our current system inefficiently converts

f il f l i t f dfossil fuels into food• Water – energy and water are inter-dependent• Population – remarkable parallel between use

of fossil fuels and population growth• Transportation – highly reliant on liquid fuels• Communities and built environment

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• Health – EMT, disaster preparedness and response, hospitals, pharmaceuticals, plastics

• War – very dependent on liquid fuels• Energy security – perhaps no such thing


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“A Harsh Reality”• “Oil: Peaking some time in the

next three years, possibly already y y ypast peak

• Gas: Peaking some time in the next three to 13 years

• Coal: Peaking some time in the next 13 years

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next 13 years• Nuclear: Probably peaking some

time in the next 10 years, with lots of variables, but its use won’t increase substantially”

2008

Resource Scarcity• Petroleum – as already covered; and energy

scarcity minerals & materials scarcityy y

• Fresh water – impacted by climate change

• Agricultural land – China purchasing prime farmlands in Africa

• Phosphorus – US, China, Morocco possess most of the resource, already limiting exports

• Rare earth elements – renewable energy

• Soil – loss of top soils due to farm practices

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The U S has the “wrong” built

Related Problem. Implications for all three pillars.

The U.S. has the wrong built environment. We heavily invested in

a model that likely will be greatly disruptive and disrupted in the 21st

Century and that is already affecting

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Century, and that is already affecting public health in several ways.

I will tell you more about the built environment and public health on August 8th.

The Key Threats to Pillars from Global Environmental Change Are LINKED

• Global climate change (1)

• Stratospheric O3 depletion (2)

• Ecosystem destruction (3)

• Biodiversity & species loss (4)

… are caused by human behaviors & are a threat to health

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2 3

… are caused by human behaviors & are a threat to health

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WHO, 20064 3


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Climate

Threat #2. To all three pillars.

ClimateMagnifi.co.uk

Change

23Lal.cas.psu.edu

Unep.org

Asianet.fi

GALLUP POLL, April 21, 2008

National Journal, Oct. 2010: “The GOP is stampeding toward an absolutistNational Journal, Oct. 2010: The GOP is stampeding toward an absolutist rejection of climate science that appears unmatched among major political

parties around the globe.”

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Rasmussen Reports, June 28-29, 2009: 41% of Americans opposed (37% in favor) to climate change and energy bill passed 219-212 along party lines in U.S. House of Representatives last month, now being considered in Senate.

National Republican Congressional Committee: “Democrats ongoing crusade against economic recovery.”


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Timelines• The planet is around 5B years old• Humans have been in settlements for

around 10,000 yearsaround 10,000 years• Industry and its hazards have been around

for approximately 200 years• Global climate change has been a concern

for around 30 years (first world climate conference in 1979, Kyoto Protocol 1997)

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conference in 1979, Kyoto Protocol 1997) • Hottest year on record 2005; 2010 tied;

2009 2nd; 2000-9 hottest decade on record

• This happened fast!

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007

IPCC was created in 1998; 2007 was fourth full report

“Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures

since the mid-20th century is very

p

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likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic

greenhouse gas concentrations.”

“… the pronouncements of the

IPCC do not represent mainstream

Tim Flannery, Australian mammologist, paleontologist, climate activist:

IPCC do not represent mainstream

science, nor even good science,

but lowest-common-denominator

science – and of course even that

is delivered at glacial speed. If the

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IPCC says something, you had

better believe it – and then allow

for the likelihood that things are far

worse than it says they are.”


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• Analysis of air bubbles in Antarctic ice cores• Similar data for CH4

and N O

A2

and N2O• Atmospheric CO2 has not exceeded 300 ppm in 800,000 years

B1

29US GCRP, 2009

Northern Hemisphere Temperatures, Past 1,000 Years

“Multiple indicators, same bottom line conclusion: consistent and unmistakable signal from the top of the

atmosphere to the bottom of the oceans”

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A1F1

O

4°F / 2.2 °C

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Observed and projected changes in global average temperature, three IPCC

scenarios, relative to 1960-79. A range of models predicts 2

to 11.5 °F.

Simulated and projected changes in amount of

precipitation in heaviest 5% of days, relative to 1960-79. More severe events are

coming.US GCRP, 2009

Momentum in Climate System and Lag Times: CO2, temperature,

and sea level continue to rise long after emissions are reduced

32IPCC


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US GCRP, 2009

A1F1

World CO2 emissions, 2008, 40% higher than in 1990

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Actual emissions have been worse than even the most pessimistic IPCC projection (A1F1)

Examples of global emission pathways for cumulative CO2

emissions of 750 Gt, 2010-2050 (an amount with 67% probability of keeping global warming < 2°C).

If world population = 9B … this is

0.5T/person (US current = 20T/person )

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“An important consequence of the rapidly growing emissions rate … is that any delay in reaching the peak in emissions drastically increases the

required rapidity and depth of future emissions cuts.”


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Highlights• 2010 one of two warmest years on record (2005)• Weather extremes observed globally: hot, cold, wet, dry• Arctic continues to warm at twice rate of lower latitudes• Changes in ocean salinity patterns suggest increase in hydrologic cycle• Arctic sea ice extent third lowest on record since 1979 (Antarctic sea ice extent near maximum)• Greenland glaciers lost more mass than in any year on

d (10 )

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record (10y)• Greenland Ice Sheet lost record mass (since 1958), area & duration of melting largest since 1978• Permafrost temperatures 2°C warmer than 20-30y ago• 2010 is 20th straight year that alpine glaciers lost mass • CO2 increased 2.6 ppm, higher than 30y average rate

How do we know these changes are due to human activities?

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Detection and attribution research


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Studying Climate• Scientists study all this complexity using:

– Earth’s paleoclimate history: how did Earth respond to past changes, especially in response to boundary forcings*M d b i f li h i id i h

IPCC, 2001; Hansen, 2011

– Modern observations of climate change, coincident with rapidly-changing human-made & natural climate forcings

– Climate models and theory

• To project future climate:– Use historical observations – paleoclimatology– Use computer models

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p• Current data to develop and validate model, then use

to predict future• Also use to understand perturbations – if current model

predicts current conditions well, perturb it to see how this might change outcomes of interest

* Boundary forcings are factors that affect Earth's energy balance (e.g., solar irradiance, ice sheet distribution, GHGs)

The Human Fingerprint

38US GCRP, 2009 Forcings in Watts/m2

A climate forcing is an imposed perturbation –

natural or human-made –of Earth's energy balance


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“Catastrophic Climate Change”

• Sea level rise leading to

Stay < 2°C (3.8°F) increase, < 450 ppm CO2

gdisplacement of human populations (10’s – 100’s millions)

• Extinction of 50% of plant and animal species

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• Regional climate change with large impacts on food production and hydrologic cycle

The Bad News About Climate Change• GHG emission trajectories over past 7 years:

worse than even the worst IPCC projections• In 2010, GHG emissions highest ever• Ocean absorption of CO2 has been declining• Ice sheet melting: much faster than predicted• Coral reef bleaching accelerating• Several tipping points in climate feedbacks

may soon be fully engaged – declining albedo, burning boreal forests Amazon dieback

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burning boreal forests, Amazon dieback, melting permafrost, enhanced El Niño

• Growing consensus: 450 ppm will not be safe; need to get down to 350 ppm (now 390 ppm)

• To prevent < 2°C increase, emissions must start declining by 2016


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2007 Climate models are not needed to calculate forcings – is about chemistry and physics.

Climate sensitivity (S) = equilibrium global surface temperature change (ΔTeq) in response to specified unit forcing afterin response to specified unit forcing after planet has come back to energy balance (S = ΔTeq/F).

Climate sensitivity depends upon climate feedbacks – physical processes that occur as climate changes in response to a forcing

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as climate changes in response to a forcing – that can enhance or diminish climate response.

“Climate feedbacks are the core of the climate problem.” Hansen J, 2011

0.75°C per W/m2

3°C per 2xCO2

> 2°C per W/m2

> 8°C per 2xCO2

Examples of policy-relevant tipping points (those that could occur this century due to human activities)

Tipping point: critical threshold at which the future state of a system can be qualitatively altered by a small change in forcing.

+

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Others are not depicted (e.g., shallow

water corral reefs) Copenhagen Diagnosis


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Thawing permafrost above Arctic CircleMethane 23X CO2

“The Peril Below the Ice” – A Positive Feedback

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ImpactsImpacts

442008


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TemperatureSea level risePrecipitation

Health Agriculture Forest

IMPACTS ON …

Water resources

Coastalareas

Species & natural areas

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Health Agriculture Forest resources areas areas

1. Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-inducedprimarily human-induced

2. Climate changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to grow

3. Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase

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4. Climate change will stress water resources

5. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged

2009


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6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surgesea-level rise and storm surge

7. Risks to human health will increase

8. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses

9. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to

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, glarge changes in climate and ecosystems

10.Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today

2009

Climate Change & Public Health

• More heat-related illness• Worsening air quality• Rising sea levels• Rising sea levels• More accidents and injuries from increased

flooding, storm surge, and extreme weather• Greater risk of infectious diseases• Threatened quantity & quality of water supplies• Threatened food supplies

St d t t ti l f ll d

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• Stressed ecosystems, potential for collapse, and loss of ecosystem services

• Vulnerable populations• Environmental refugees, social disruption,

conflict


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Warmer Temperatures are Here

Heat-related morbidity and mortality – a direct health effect of climate change

Nature 2004: Summers like this in Europe willNature 2004: Summers like this in Europe will happen every other year by 2040

Summer 2003

35,000 dead49

Example: Climate on the Move – Changing Summers

Projections of summer average temperature and precipitation changes (mid = 2040 59 end = 2080 99)(mid = 2040-59, end = 2080-99)

Translates into considerably HOTTER and DRIER summers in both locations.

Many other similar regional impacts have been forecast: e g water levels

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have been forecast: e.g., water levels in Great Lakes, coastal erosion, insect infestations, drought and flood risks

US GCRP, 2009


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Conrad Icefield and Glacier

Purcell MountainsBritish ColumbiaBritish Columbia

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Melting, melting, melting …

Conrad Icefield and GlacierPurcell MountainsBritish Columbia

US GCRP, 2009

Cubic miles of glacier ice loss

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Retreating Margin of

Larsen B Ice Shelf, 1998-

2002

Red squares

indicate glacier

velocity

measurement

sites where speed

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sites where speed

increased up to 5X

faster in 12 mo

after 2002 ice

shelf breakup

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Rate of Greenland ice melting doubled from 1996-2005

Moulin(NASA photo)

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Arctic Sea Ice Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 11/2004Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 11/2004

Observed September 2003

2010-2030 2040-2060 2070-2090

----------------------------- PROJECTIONS----------------------------

Observed September 1979(first data)

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Telegraph, UK, Apr 2009: “Scientists say Arctic could be ice-free within decade”


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SoTC10: ARCTIC “Changes occurring faster than in most of rest of world. Trends in snow

cover duration, permafrost, & vegetation continued or accelerated.”

Updated to 2008 (Copenhagen Diagnosis)

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2008

• IPCC: sea level projected to rise 7-23 in by 2100*

• Hansen: paleoclimate data t th t l l illsuggest that sea level will

rise > 20 ft (6 m) with 2°C

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* … excludingfuture rapid dynamical

changes in ice flow & melting


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Rising Temperatures Worsen Air Pollution

Warmer temperatures

increase tropospheric

ozone formation

This has been linked to

asthma and

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asthma and cardiovascular

disease hospitalizations

and deaths

DengueMalariaLyme disease

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Some pests will thrive with change in climate: vector-borne disease risk


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Extreme EventsIPCC, 2007: Climate change will result in more

weather extremes – more heavy precipitation

events, floods, droughts, stronger hurricanes

(“climate chaos”)

• Regional extremes are very important to public health• More relevant to people; largest impact on communities

M diffi lt t d l t i bilit ll

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• More difficult to model – greater variability on smaller scales & resolution of current models an issue• Much progress being made• Regional extremes attribution improving and projections are concerning

3-day average sea surface T°

Yellow

Katrina

Yellow, orange, and red areas are> 82° F (27.8° C, the T° needed for hurricanes to strengthen).

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Min 26° C needed for hurricanes to form.

Epstein P. NEJM 2005; 353: 1433-6.


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Hurricane projections to 2080 for 1% annual increases in CO2 levels

Just As the Challenges of Peak Oil Arrive, Climate Change Will Constrain Energy

ProductionUS GCRP, 2009:US GCRP, 2009:• Energy production is likely to be

constrained by rising temperatures and limited water supplies in many regions

• Energy production and delivery systems are exposed to sea-level rise and

t th t i l bl

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extreme weather events in vulnerable regions

• Climate change is likely to affect some renewable energy sources (e.g., hydropower)


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2008

• Water is needed to generate energy – very important and large quantities• Energy is needed to deliver water• These resources already limit the other –increasing examples• Switching from gasoline to electric vehicles or biofuels is a strategic decision to switch dependence from foreign oil to domestic water• Complex inter-connectedness – our theme

Linkages between

climate change, ecosystems,

My sick joke is that Eastern Australia had average rainfall for the last seven years. The first six were the driest six years in the record books, and the seventh

was feet deep in unprecedented floods. Such

Meeting needs for increased

yand food

production

“average” rainfall makes farming difficult.

Jeremy Grantham, GMO LLC, May 2011

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Meeting needs for increased agricultural production has the

potential to increase global rates of biodiversity loss, climate change, & desertification.


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Summers in 2080-2100 Warmer than Warmest on Record

• Compared these temperatures to historical ones and their impacts on agricultureagriculture• Crop yields declined 20-50% at these temperatures• There will be food deficits in many parts of world• Tropics most susceptible• Most of world lives in these places

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Using summer means (minimizes tails, thus under-estimating effect)

p• Adaptation may help, must start now

An Equation for DisasterForced migration of millions

+ Scarce resources, including energy

+ Shrinking economies

+ Already stressed infrastructures and

ecosystems

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= Conflict• Wars over food, land, water, energy, environmental refugees?

• Each would have severe implications for population health.


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Environmental Conflicts

69TEEB, 2008

So, to review, and in summary …

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2009 dataUS: 5% population, 18% GHG emissions


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Deaths Attributed to Climate Change (selected outcomes only)

73Patz J, et al. Nature 2005; 438: 310-7.

WHO data for 2000; for cardiovascular diseases, diarrhea, malaria, inland and coastal flooding, and malnutrition.

In 2000 – 150,000 deaths

1995 Nobel Prize in

Chemistry

Stratospheric ozone depletion

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depletion

Some slides from Pyle JA, Solomon S. IPCC WG1, obtained from http://arch.rivm.nl/env/int/ipcc/docs/SROCF/SBSTA22/01OzoneDepletion.pdf

July 19 2006


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The Small BiosphereEarth diameter = 8,000 miles

Karman line (“edge of space”) = 62 miles

Biosphere (layer in which life can be found) = 8 miles

75Starryskies.com

Stratospheric ozone

Stratospheric Ozone• Most O3 in lower stratosphere, 15-25

km• Began accumulating 1-2B y ago • Began accumulating 1-2B y ago,

product of photosynthesis in aquatic algae & plants

• O2 is converted to O3 by high-energy photolytic action of UV radiation– Cl* from CFCs catalyze breakdown of O3

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Cl from CFCs catalyze breakdown of O3

• Ozone layer blocks out all UV-C, 50% of UV-B, and small fraction UV-A*

• T1/2 for ozone regeneration: 3-4 y* Wavelengths: UVA 400 nm - 320 nm; UVB 320 nm - 290 nm; UVC 290 nm - 100 nm


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Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)• DuPont, first synthesized 1928• CFC-12 (R-12), DuPont trade name ( ),

Freon–Primary use as refrigerant in

residential refrigerators and mobile air conditioners

• CFC-11, 113, 114, 115 used in

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production of other products–Foam rubber (blowing agents), rigid

insulating foam, solvents in electronics industry

CFCs and Ozone• 1974: Molina & Rowland, two American

scientists, hypothesize CFC role in Nature• 1978: U.S. bans use in spray cans9 8 U S ba s use sp ay ca s• 1983: Scandinavians propose global ban• 1985: Vienna Convention

–20 nations sign; declaration, not commitment–Precedent: multinational agreement on

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environmental problem before clear scientific consensus

– In 1985, there was no evidence that CFCs actually damaged stratospheric ozone!


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Potential Effects of Ozone Depletion• Direct health effects

– SKIN: damage, cancer (10% loss, for 40 years, 300,000 new cases non-melanocytic skin cancer 5 000-9 000 new cases skin cancer, 5,000 9,000 new cases melanoma)

– EYE: cataracts, conjunctival epithelial thickening, ? retinal degeneration

– IMMUNE system: ? immunosuppression• Indirect effects

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– Crop yields, forest growth– Phytoplankton reduction (under hole, 10% )– Positive feedback to global warming (GW

increases ozone depletion which enhances GW)

90°

60°

Regions of the world by latitude

30°

0°

30°

80

30

60°

90°


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Early Observations• 1985: British scientists – 40% loss of Antarctic ozone in late winter

and early spring• 1986-7: losses reported over both poles, late winter• 1988: inverse correlation measured between stratospheric CFC & O• 1988: inverse correlation measured between stratospheric CFC & O3

• 1980s: measured 50% increase in CFC levels

• 1988: new report, two important conclusions

– (1) Antarctic O3 hole caused by CFCs; and (2) O3 observed in North Temperate Zone

– Industrial opposition to CFC phase out disappeared; DuPont switches within 2 weeks

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• 1980-92: at 30-50° N, O3 decreased 0.5%/y

• 1980s & 1990s: UV levels measured by satellite

– s of 5% per decade at 30° N and 30° S; 15% per decade at 55° S; 40% per decade over Antarctic; 10% per decade over Arctic

Measured

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So, good news for the world. But not all the news is good.

NASA i l ti ld ith t t l Cl & B ll ti

2/3 of world total gone by 2065

NASA simulation – a world without controls on Cl & Br pollution

With controls, recovery was expected by 2050

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“Amid the good news … lurk big questions about how long it will take … A decade ago, researchers projected … fully recover by 2050 … now … far more uncertainty. One … complicating factor … GHGs have altered atmospheric

conditions … since Montreal Protocol was signed, some of which speed up ozone recovery and some of which delay it.”

WMO & UNEP: > 700,000 excess cases 1980-2050 due

to ozone depletion

• MeBr pesticide still being used• MeBr pesticide still being used (was supposed to be phased out by 2005 in developed countries), after lobbying efforts• Cl- and Br-containing compounds in old air conditioners and fire-fighting systems expected to make it

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g g sys e s e pec ed o a eto atmosphere as these break down• Br levels in stratosphere are higher than expected and than levels used in models


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World Response Summarized• 1985: Vienna Convention• 1987: Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the

Ozone Layer– 50% phase out of CFCs by 199850% phase out of CFCs by 1998

• 1990: London Revisions– Added new compounds, financial mechanisms for aiding

developing countries, added new control measures• 1992: Copenhagen Amendment

– Added HCFCs, HBFCs, and MeBr• 1997: Montreal Amendment

– Licensing systems for control & monitoring of substances

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Licensing systems for control & monitoring of substances under agreements

• 1999: Beijing Amendment– New compounds, new control measures, new restrictions

on trade

• Virtually all countries have ratified these treaties

Compare & ContrastOzone Depletion & Climate Change

• Both are global in scale• Both pose significant potential risks to • Both pose significant potential risks to

inhabitants of this planet, both direct and indirect

• Both with significant sources of uncertainty and natural variability

• Both required complex computer modeling h h d d bl

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• Both have generated considerable, rancorous debate

• One was “solved” before scientific consensus• The other – the heated debate continues


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EcosystemEcosystem destruction

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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

• 1400 experts from 95 countries S t 4 d ti l b l • Spent 4 years conducting a global inventory of the state of our ecosystems

• Quantifying the effect that human activities are having on them (and on the impacts of ecosystem changes for human well being)

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human well-being)• Identifying information gaps • Making suggestions for the future • Results released April 2005


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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Findings

• 60 per cent of the planet's ecosystem services are currently being degraded by human activities

• 20 per cent of the world's coral

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reefs have been lost

• 40 per cent of the planet's rivers have been fragmented

Human Activities that Degrade Ecosystems

• Runoff of pesticides, fertilizers, and animal wastes animal wastes

• Pollution of land, water, and air resources • Introduction of non-native species • Over-harvesting of fisheries • Destruction of wetlands

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• Erosion of soils • Deforestation • Urban sprawl • Ecosystem fragmentation

Ecological Society of America, 2000


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Ecosystem Impacts

• Deforestation• Coastal wetlands• Marine fisheries• Coral reefs• Desertification

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The coming era of energy, water, and food

scarcity

Example: Marine Fisheries• Over-harvesting• Destructive practices

• Ocean acidification• Pollution runoff from land• Warming oceans

2009

• Bottom trawlers with enormous nets• 20 lbs bykill for each lb catch• Up to 55% coral, 67% sponges destroyed in single drag

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Seafloor destruction plume

drag• Area larger than CA already destroyed by U.S. trawlers

Satellite view, Gulf of Mexico


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Ecosystem Services• Moderate weather extremes and impacts • Disperse seeds • Mitigate droughts and floods • Protection from ultraviolet rays

Ecological Society of America, 2000

• Cycle and move nutrients • Protect streams, rivers, & coasts from erosion • Detoxify and decompose wastes • Control agricultural pests • Maintain biodiversity

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• Generate & preserve soils & renew fertility • Contribute to climate stability • Purify air and water • Regulate disease carrying organisms • Pollinate crops and natural vegetation

Images: nybooks.com

20071921

The “Third Pole” – Greater Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau: the largest non-polar ice mass in the world

A critical ecosystem function: collect and store monsoon rains

Mount Everest & Main Rongbuk Glacier, Tibet Autonomous Region, China, 1921-2007

A critical ecosystem function: collect and store monsoon rains

Feeds ten major rivers in Asia: Yellow, Yangtze, Mekong, Salween, Irrawaddy, Brahmaputra, Ganges, Indus, Amu Darya, and Tarim

Total flow from glacier melt: Indus 50%, Tarim 50%, Yangtze 18%, Salween 9%

But melt waters can account for up to 70% of spring and fall flows for each


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Energy Climate Ecosystems

• Energy issues, climate change, and ecosystem issues are intricately ecosystem issues are intricately interlinked

• To date, our ecosystem issues have looked less severe because we have used cheap energy to o e come them

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overcome them• Climate change is now an

overarching set of challenges on top of all ecosystem issues

Biodiversity andBiodiversity and species loss

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First sightedMauritius

c. 1580

RIPEXTINCTc. 1681

97The dodo bird

The first human-caused extinction

5 Mass Extinctions• Ordovician

– Cause: glaciation

• Devonian– 70% of all species

Mass extinction: Earth loses 75%

of species in geologically short

time interval– Cause: global cooling

• Permian– Largest extinction event – 96% of all marine species, 75% of

terrestrial families – Cause: Siberian volcanism & warming

• Triassic

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– ~25% of all families, many vertebrates – Cause: CO2, warming, acidification

• Cretaceous– Most famous – dinosaurs – 85% of all species– Cause: meteorite impact theory

remains the most probable


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The 6th Mass ExtinctionCaused by Humans

• >16,000 species currently threatened with extinction– 100 to 1,000 times the “normal” background

rate of species extinction– In last 500 y, 844 extinctions due to human

activity– Numbers of threatened species are increasing

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Numbers of threatened species are increasing

• Different from previous– No cataclysmic natural event– Caused by humans

4

1

23

100


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Mean Species Abundance

1970 Arose out of G8+5 environment ministers meeting in Potsdam,

FRG, May 2007

TEEB, 2008

Major continuing

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2050

(% of original land biodiversity)

impacts, with additional 11% average losses

2000-50, with > 20% in some biomes, especially

in Africa, India, China.

Convention on Biological Diversity

• Came from Earth Summit in 1992–U.S. signed 1993

• The variability among living organisms from all sources including terrestrial, marine, and other aquatic ecosystems and the ecological

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complexes of which they are part. This includes diversity within species, between species and of ecosystems (CBD, 2002).


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Key Messages• Biodiversity has many benefits for

humans

• Declines in biodiversity due to human activities over the past 50 y have been rapid and unprecedented in human history

• The main drivers of change are getting worse & are

likely to continue or accelerate

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e y to co t ue o acce e ate

• An unprecedented effort would be needed to

achieve (by 2010) a significant reduction in the rate

of biodiversity loss at all levels

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Examined combined effects of pollution, acidification, ocean warming over-fishing and hypoxia

The world’s ocean is at high risk of entering a phase of extinction of marine species unprecedented in human historyJune 2011

ocean warming, over-fishing, and hypoxia.

The panel concluded that:

• The combination of stressors … is creating conditions associated with every previous major extinction … in Earth’s history• The rate of degeneration … is far faster than … predicted

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The rate of degeneration … is far faster than … predicted • Many … negative impacts previously identified are greater than the worst predictions• … the first steps to globally significant extinction may have begun with a rise in the extinction threat to marine species such as reef-forming corals

Bleaching as coral expel algae

Coral reefs: 0.2% of ocean floor; 25% of ocean’s biodiversity; key source of protein for 500M people, protect coastal shores from weather & tsunamis

World Resources Institute: 75% of world’s reefs at riskGlobal Coral Read Monitoring Institute: 20% of world’s reefs lost

Warming seas, ocean acidification expected to put all world’s reefs at risk by 2050


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Parting WordsClimate change + energy scarcity: h h h h h fthe canvas on which the history of the 21st Century will be painted.*

Climate change is likely to be the predominant scientific, economic, political and moral issue of the 21st century. The

107* Adapted from Mark Lynas

fate of humanity and nature may depend upon early recognition and understanding of human-made effects on

Earth's climate.

James E. Hansen, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2011

“The Perfect Storm”

The “wrong” built environment

Ecosystem & species declines

Geopolitics of Conflict

Responses OutcomesChallenges

The coming era of energy scarcity

Climate change Deficits

environmentspecies declines

Huge fossil fuel inputs into food

production

scarcity

Social upheaval

Competition over resources

Population morbidity

P l ti

Refugees

Other resource scarcity

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Population mortality

(Workable solutions) (Sustainability)


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We the undersigned, senior members of the world’s scientific community, hereby warn all humanity what lies

ahead A great change in ourahead. A great change in our stewardship of the earth and life on it is required if vast human misery is to be avoided and our global home on this

planet is not to be irretrievably

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planet is not to be irretrievably mutilated.

The World’s Scientists’ Warning to Humanity, 1992 (1,700 scientists signed, 104 Nobel laureates)

2006Australia, Saudi Arabia

Brazil1.9

Indonesia1.6 Pakistan

0.8

#1Total emissions

Nigeria0.6

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From 2002-2006, per capita emissions increased from 2.1 to 4.6MT/y in China.

World average increased by ~15%.

#1#2 Total emissions


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An Editorial• There is a lot we can do NOW with

technology … but not much happening• While we are waiting for political, g p ,

business, and public health leaders to act …

• … what can WE do now?• American behaviors are the biggest

cause of this problemh h ll d d b

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• The challenges presented today may be the most difficult humanity has ever faced

• The threats to human health and well-being are potentially catastrophic

Which future do you prefer?

Is this a false choice or real?

112Scientific American 2006


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Remember:

We have NOT EVEN

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NOT EVEN TRIED YET

Health & Medicine

Global Environmental Change