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Prof Colin Butler

June 5, 2015

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Institutional co-founders (to date)

Australia: Univ CanberraCanada: Victoria Univ

Finland: Univ OuluUK: Univ Liverpool

Strathclyde UniMalaysia: UNU International

Institute Global HealthNew Zealand: Massey UniUSA: Univ Cal San Diego

Univ Washington

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Kenneth Boulding (1910-93)

The Economics of the coming Spaceship Earth (1966)

“the only person who believes in perpetual economic growth is either a

madman or an economist”

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• Modelled world economy and environment

– Many scenarios modelled from 1900 to 2100

– Most lead to “overshoot and collapse”

• Widely believed to forecast resource scarcity and collapse by year 2000

– leading to false claims that it was wrong

Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth 1972

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Limits to growth

Earth from Mars, 2005

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“Demand will create a parachute”

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Prof A.J. (Tony) McMichael1942-2014

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A/Prof Colin D Butler (colin.butler@anu.edu.au) National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health Australian National

University, Australia

Three wise epidemiologists Nikko Toshogu Shinto Shrine, Tokyo.

Photo: Rangaku 1976, 2008

Limits to growth and public health: where is environmental epidemiology?

APOLOGIES: future generations

23rd ISEE meeting, Barcelona,

September, 2011

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Peak health?

Brijnath, McMichael, Butler, Nature, 2012

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Planetary BoundariesA safe operating space

or humanity

Steffen et al, 2015

What does this mean for society? And for health?

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Integrated Science for Sustainable Transitionshttp://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/events/

150428-IGBP.html

State of the art lecture on sustainability science.. Yet nothing on health (including in Future Earth)

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Emerging issue in global health curricula but far too

little, given topic’s importance

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FROM

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AND

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Towards:

“eco-social” determinants of health

Focus on either social or ecological often incomplete – need to see the inter-relationships, otherwise policy solution lacking

Health issue Illustrative determinant

social ecological

rural suicide indebtedness drought

conflict in Yemen “political” water scarcity

Rwandan genocide 1994

ethnic tension, “youth bulge”

fertile land scarcity

ebola in West Africa poor health services, poverty deforestation

heatstroke poverty, vulnerability global warming

famine, undernutrition discrimination, lack of “entitlement”

aquifer depletion, climate change

migration government policy, poverty, oppression

flooding - sea level rise, worse storms, or both

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Damascus, 2014. Line for food aid from UN Relief and Works Agency in a great city - large parts of which have been destroyed by civil war, along with basic food supply infrastructure

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CRICOS #00212KToday’s news

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Former PM John Howard (2013):

quoted as "compelling" one of Mr Lawson's claims .. that unmitigated warming would leave future generations 8.4 times better off, compared with 9.4 times richer in the absence of climate change

In other words – nothing to worry about

complete dismissal of thresholds, “dangerous” or – worse - “runaway” CC

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raise substantial funds

creativelyteach and train

publish and advocate

collaborate within and across disciplines

aims

Make these issues far more visible in the the global health agenda

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Wael Al-Delaimy* Univ California San Diego1,2

Sir Harry Burns* Strathclyde Uni former chief medical officer Scotland1,3

Colin Butler* Univ Canberra1,2,4,5,6,

Tony Capon* UN Univ Int’l Institute for Global Health – director1,3,7

Kristie Ebi^ Uni Washington1,2,4,6

Trevor Hancock*, Victoria Univ, 1st leader Canadian Green Party1,3

Jouni Jaakola* Univ Oulo, WHO Collaborating Centre Glob Envtl Change1,2

Andy Morse^ Univ Liverpool Centre for Infection and Global Health6

John Potter * Massey Univ, Univ Washington (emeritus Prof) former director Public Health Sciences division, Fred Hutchison Cancer Institute Seattle3

1. Global Health2. International Society for Environmental Epidemiology

3. Public Health4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

5. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment6. Earth System Science Partnership

7. International Council for ScienceOther expertise includes medicine (*), climate science (^)

Individual co-founders/ expertise/ links/ distinctions (selected)

Collaborations with low-income settings and capacity building

recognised as a priority

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27

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http://www.saskwind.ca/blogbackend/2014/9/17/wind-solar-cost-declines-renewables-growth

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Vatican official calls for moral awakening on global warmingApril 28, 2015