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Work in progress and the state of

affairs*Matti Heino

http://mattiheino.com

* adapted from a talk in the 2016 Dynamic Systems Modeling expert meeting

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● A school-based multilevel intervention to increase physical activity and

decrease sitting among youth

● Ongoing since 2012

● RCT phase from 2015 to 2017

● Ca. 16–19 year-old vocational school students

● Waist-worn accelerometers, body composition, surveys

”Let’s Move It”

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Study protocol @ BMC Public Health

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The aim, in a nutshell:To evaluate…

• the effectiveness• processes/mechanisms of change• cost-effectiveness

… of a school-based, multi-level intervention, on physical activity and sedentary behavior

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Theoretical framework●Self-determination theory●Control and self-regulation theories●Reasoned action approach●Habit theory(Hankonen et al. 2016, BMC Public Health)

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The data (2017)

Final n ≈ 1000

Measurements at four time points:

T1 (baseline)

T2 (mid-intervention)

T3 (2-month follow-up)

T4 (12-month follow-up)

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T1-T4 measures of the following constructs (related to PA):• Behavioral predictors according to Self-Determination

Theory• autonomous and controlled motivation (motivational

regulations)

• Behavioral predictors according to Reasoned Action Approach• outcome expectations, descriptive and injunctive norms,

intention, self-efficacy/perceived behavioural control

• In addition, behavior change technique (BCT) use, self-reported PA, injuries/illness

The data (2017)

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Network Analysis?

- Compare longitudinal, within-individual networks of those who change and those who

don’t?

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My upcoming PhD project

… On taking control of one’s own motivation

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My PhD project (fall 2016-2020)

• Inspecting within-individual motivational fluctuations and their effect on physical activity

• Data collection using a mobile app: physical activity, behaviour change techniques, psychosocial stuff (e.g. motivation)

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The very preliminary idea

• First: gather a catalogue of techniques individuals use to manage their motivation

• Second: see how people use the motivation management techniques in day-to-day life

• Third: teach employees to manage their exercise motivation and see if affects occupational health

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Some open questions

• Extend network approach: N-of-1 networks?

• How to use what we know about dynamical systems, complexity?

• Potential pitfalls?

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Andrew Gelman on ”piss-poor omnicausal social science”:”[…] toxic combination of open-ended theories, noisy data,

and huge incentives to obtain ‘p less than .05’” (source)

• … My nightmare is ending up as a link in this chain

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Sir Ronald Fisher (1938):

“To consult the statistician after an experiment is finished

is often merely to ask him to conduct a post mortem

examination. He can perhaps say what the experiment

died of.”… so I’m calling out to all the savvy folks with

methods superpowers – you can make the world a better place!

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Get in touch!

Questions?

Comments?

Ideas?

@heinonmatti

mattiheino.wordpress.com