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Pharmaceutical Emerging Markets represent 1/3 of the Global Market and contributed 66% to growth between 2008 and 2012. BRIC growth deceleration and difficulties in some core Emerging Markets could compromise forthcoming growth, considering Developed Markets will keep a tight control over budget. Big Pharma should rethink their strategy to minimize MS loses in Emerging Markets. Increase on M&A activities in core countries seems to be the best option
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Global Pharmaceutical MarketHow Emerging Markets are changing the scope
2008-2012
From 2008 to 2012 Global Pharmaceutical Market grew 20% in constant USD
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
814 871
916 966 979
Global Market
Source: Emergpharma Pannel 2013
Emerging Markets increased market share by 7% in 4 years (from 22,7% to 29,6%)
2008 2012 -
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1,000.00
1,200.00
Developed Markets Emerging Markets
Source: Emergpharma Pannel 2013
Core Growth Drivers 2008-2012 (bn USD)
North America; 33.60
Top 5 EU; 7.65
Rest Dev EU; -0.94 Japan; 14.42
Aus/NZ; 1.13 BRIC; 73.93
Rest of EM; 34.77 Developed EU
contributed just 4% to growthEmerging Markets
represented 66% of market growth
Source: Emergpharma Pannel 2013
All Emerging Platforms except EU delivered a consistent growth in the 5 years period
Emerging E
U (Exce
pt Russi
a)
Emerging A
PAC (exce
pt China+
India)
Emerging L
ATAM (e
xcept B
R)
Emerging M
E-ABRIC
-
40.00
80.00
120.00
160.00
20082012
Source: Emergpharma Pannel 2013
(Brazil, Russia, India and China)
(Middle East + Africa)
In 2012, 12 Emerging Markets exceeded 5 bn USD sales, representing 217 bn USD
72%
26%
2%
More than 5 bn Between 1 and 5 bn Less than 1 bn
13 countries: China, India, Russia, Brazil,
Korea, Mexico, Poland, Turkey, Indonesia, Ve-nezuela, Argentina and
Saudi Arabia
28 countries
29 countries
Clues for Global Market Forecasting
• Emerging Markets represented roughtly 1/3 of global market in 2013 and its market share is increasing at an average of 1,75% per year
• 13 Emerging Markets are delivering 72% of EM sales and nearly 98% growth. Among them, BRIC are main contributors
• Cost constrain pressures in Developed Markets are expected to keep growth in low single digits (or even decrease) in this market segment
• Emerging Markets will remain as core growth contributors, although BRIC shows clear sights of deceleration and among the other 8 critical markets, trend in countries as Turkey, Poland, Venezuela or Argentina remains uncertain.
• In Summary, global market growth is not expected to move out of 2-5% CAG % in constant USD until 2017. According to expected market evolution, Emerging Markets will represent nearly 40% of the market in 2017
• As Top Pharma present strategy is driving to market share loses in Emerging Markets, an important growth in local EM companies can be expected, either through independent local growth or by big pharma M&A activities
• Targeted local companies in core Emerging Markets or Panasian, Panlatam or PanMena companies should be carefully considered by pharma investors
• Consulting experts on Emerging Markets can help to identify the right candidates. Between 300 and 400 bn USD of extra sales are on the game from 2014 to 2017
More information
• Contact:– Jose Ignacio Díaz (Emergpharma)– [email protected]– Website: www.emergpharma.com
