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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd Future of Global Health and Medical Technology 2020-2030

Future of Health Care, Medical Tech, Biotech, Pharma, Diagnostics, Wearable health devices - keynote by Dr Patrick Dixon

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  1. 1. Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change LtdFuture of Global Health and Medical Technology 2020-2030
  2. 2. Everyhealth trendwill impactallother healthtrends
  3. 3. Cloud Nanotech Mobile Biotech Genes + Cells Digital Connect Atoms Converging - Combinations
  4. 4. Expectconvergence andcompe66on betweenpharma, biotechandmedtech inndinganswersto majorcondi6ons
  5. 5. ONEWORD willdrivethe futureofhealth
  6. 6. The future is about EMOTION
  7. 7. Demographics willbegreatest predictorof futuredemand
  8. 8. 1 billion children alive today
  9. 9. Growthinglobal healthspendwillbe drivenbygrowthof middleclassin emergingna6ons
  10. 10. IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity >40% WDP by 2015
  11. 11. 300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  12. 12. Megacities mean greater risks of viral epidemics like Ebola with global impact
  13. 13. ! 1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
  14. 14. Europe Dying ! 4 couples to produce single great-grand child ! S Korea children per couple fell from 6 to 1.2 - 1950-2000
  15. 15. Title Text Body Level One Body Level Two Body Level Three Body Level Four Body Level Five
  16. 16. >65%ofhealth spendwillbe onpeople >65yearsold
  17. 17. Chronic Conditions Multiple Needs 100 million Americans have chronic conditions 80% of health spending 88% of all prescriptions 70% of physician visits 66% Medicare cost = people with 5+ conditions Almost all caused by people getting older
  18. 18. Expectmajorglobal demandforpreven6onand treatmentforcancer,heart, brain,chronicwounds, infec6ons,infer6lity, arthri6sanddiabetes
  19. 19. Pharma Companies WILLndnew blockbusterse.g. Alzheimers/Obesity
  20. 20. AlzheimerscommonestcauseofdeathinUKwomen 2010-2050demen6a
  21. 21. 1in3babiesinNewYorkwilldevelop adult-typediabetes-cost$100bnayear
  22. 22. Imagingand Diagnos6cswill bedominated by3DandHD
  23. 23. 27
  24. 24. Cloud Processing
  25. 25. Positron emission tomography Magnetic nuclear resonance
  26. 26. Imaging and Robotics
  27. 27. Food moth larva silk gland ! ! Fat cells Cuticular
  28. 28. Mouse Retina
  29. 29. Micro-surgery willtransform hospitalcare
  30. 30. $75bn endoscopy market by 2022 ($23bn 2010)
  31. 31. 125,000 stents or carotid surgery a year in US
  32. 32. Lengthof hospitalstay willfallrapidly
  33. 33. Virtual Medicine
  34. 34. Wearable HealthDevices willbealmost universal
  35. 35. Home Tele-Monitoring
  36. 36. Mostpa6ents willknowmore thantheir physiciansabout theircondi6on
  37. 37. Search: know more than your doctor !
  38. 38. HomeCarewill growveryfast especiallyfor oldpeople
  39. 39. ! ! Diabetes, congestive heart failure, obstructive pulmonary 2.2 million at home> $22bn by 2015Mobile telephony
  40. 40. Biotechwill drivemost pharma innova6on
  41. 41. coatings and robots
  42. 42. Build Nanotech Robots as Biotech Therapies
  43. 43. Adenovirus contains Math1 gene Turns young ear cells into hair cells Inject virus particles into inner ear New hair cells grow near Organ of Corti! Research in Guinea Pigs Cure for Deafness ?
  44. 44. Confidential HSV1causescoldsores. Whenengineeredas Seprehvir(HSV-1716),itis harmlesstohealthy@ssue. Oncolytic viruses Infect and kill cancer tumour cells No damage to healthy tissue Evidence of impact in clinical trials Able to deliver new genes into cancer cells Micro-dose chemo, micro-dose radiotherapy Viruses to cure cancer
  45. 45. ElectronicMedical Recordswillmean beerdecisions usingBigData
  46. 46. ! ! ! Product scanning means safety ! Computer-aided decisions save lives and time
  47. 47. Ottawa Hospital, Ontario - 3000 ipads Mayo Clinic - 2000 ipads !
  48. 48. Zettabyte = 1024 Exabytes Exabyte = 1024 Petabytes Petabyte = 1024 Terabytes Terabytes = 1024 Gigabytes That's a data explosion of 44x in ! Big Data
  49. 49. Genescreening willdominate disease preven6on
  50. 50. Genetic Prophecy
  51. 51. Genes for old age, speech, memory, criminality, depression, obesity and stable relationships
  52. 52. Fluidics Biochemistry Semiconductors Genetics Mathematics Immunology Robotics Read genome in 2 hours for $5,000
  53. 53. OrganRepair willberou6ne usingowncells
  54. 54. Stem Cells
  55. 55. Pigs teeth grown inside rats Mice grow new teeth from nerve cells / gum tissue Grow New Teeth
  56. 56. Repair of heart, retina, brain or spinal cord using adult stem cells Repair Heart / Brain
  57. 57. Competition in spinal cord damage from chips implanted into brain
  58. 58. New insulin cells in capsules to protect from immune system Repair Pancreas to treat diabetes
  59. 59. 79 Competition from implanted devices containing insulin
  60. 60. Print Elastomere
  61. 61. We can print layers of living cells....
  62. 62. Print New Skin (Lexmar)
  63. 63. Lifeexpectancyin mostna6onswill increasebyfar morethan1week everymonth
  64. 64. Performance Shift in retail health care from health treatment to life enhancement
  65. 65. Want to look better
  66. 66. may be Want to think better...... 20%studentsinUSusememory- enhancingdrugstopasstheirexams
  67. 67. An6-Ageingwill beaglobal obsession-with rapidprogress
  68. 68. Can we stop ageing ?
  69. 69. 7mechanismsofageinginanimalandhumancells Celllossoratrophywithoutreplacement Oncogenicnuclearmuta6onsandepimuta6ons Mitochondrialmuta6ons Cellsenescence(deathresistant) Intra-cellularjunk Extra-cellularjunk(aectscells) Randomextra-cellularcross-linking
  70. 70. Worn out Mitochondria Energy Boost R-alpha-lipoic acidAcetyl-L-carnitine
  71. 71. Adenovirus Infected mouse hair cells Permanent colour change Permanent Hair Colour
  72. 72. Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of hardened arteries and helps wrinkled skin. Global sales? Low blood pressure and total body lift ! ! ! ! ! ! Alteon
  73. 73. Monkeys on diet live longer After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay 96
  74. 74. Slow or no ageing is a reality Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales ! No signs of getting old Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam 405 years Some animals do not seem to age in normal way
  75. 75. Manyhealth costswillfall whiletotal spendingwillrise
  76. 76. Faster healing
  77. 77. Negative Pressure Healing
  78. 78. Adenoviral human telomerase reverse transcriptase
  79. 79. Fundingof HealthCarewill besensi6ve poli6calissue
  80. 80. Patent Expiry3000 Canadian Pharma Patents 2003-11! ! ! ! ! ! !
  81. 81. Ra6oningof healthcarewill beseenin everyna6on
  82. 82. Irrational Rationing
  83. 83. Rationing all government Health competes with .... Specialties compete Diseases / Patient groups Treatment methods Greatest impact for greatest number Competition
  84. 84. Transurethral resection Laser destruction Microwave destruction Heat destruction Da Vinci robot Competition
  85. 85. Patient campaigns / Google Legal / IT linked decisions Financial incentives Patient experience /quality life Local skills / experience Appropriate infrastructure Impact on rationing
  86. 86. Expectrapidgrowth globallyinprivate medicalcare,health insuranceand medicaltourism
  87. 87. Expectmanynew ethicalchallengese.g. beginningandendof life,dataprivacy,who ownsgenes,gene6c discrimina6on
  88. 88. Oneofgreatest ethicalchallengeswill beimprovingaccess tohealthcarein poorestna6ons
  89. 89. 1 in 12 in Liberia UNICEF 1 in 10 women die in childbirth in some parts of Northern Mozambique
  90. 90. 115 1.8 million small children die every year because of dirty water supplies
  91. 91. In a global village, every local health problem can have a global impact - so expect more global health initiatives
  92. 92. ! ! Crea6ngaBeerWorld Expectrapidinnova6oninmedical technologywithmanystartupsandhealth productslaunchedbytechnologygiants- withmajorinvestmentinSKorea
  93. 93. globalchange.com - slides and videos Future of Health Care