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Artificial Intelligence to make precise decisions
July 13, 2017Pietro Leo Executive Architect & CTOChief scientist, and research strategist IBM ItalyIBM Academy of Technology Leadership Teampieroleo.com
DATA
INFORMATION
KNOWLEDGE
WISDOM
DECISION
July 18, 20176
July 18, 20177
July 18, 20178
July 18, 20179
10
You shared your position with me and can guess your mobility need. I can take you where you need to be
Just enjoy your new experience. Stay safe as in your friends home
I know what is needed for you, even before you order it
Please, come with me and stay by me.I know your content I can take care of all your digital life
11
Video: http://www.digitaltrends.com/home/grush-toothbrush-wins-americas-greatest-makers/
http://www.grushgamer.com/
HYPERDATAWORLD
Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/meet-the-world-s-most-connected-man-Vs~LzkbkR7yhjza~7nji1g.html
Meet theWorld's Most Connected Man
16Image source: http://personalexcellence.co/blog/i deal-beauty/
17Image source: http://personalexcellence.co/blog/i deal-beauty/
City
Lifestyle
ZIPcode
Costal vsInland Maritalstatus
Generation
Location
FamilySize
Gender
Income Level
Competitors
Age
Loyalty&CardActivity
Revenue Size
Life Stages
Eductation
Legalstatus
Sector
Industry
18
Image source: http://personalexcellence.co/blog/i deal-beauty/
City
Lifestyle
ZIPcode
Costal vsInland Maritalstatus
Generation
Location
FamilySize
Gender
Income Level
Competitors
Age
Loyalty&CardActivity
Revenue Size
Life Stages
Eductation
Legalstatus
Sector
Industry
SubscriptionsDate on Site
Wish List
Size of Network
Check-ins
App usage duration
Number of Apps on Device
Deposits/Withdrawals
Device UsagePurchase History
FollowingFollowers
Likes
Number of Hashtags used
History of Hashtags
Search Strings entered
Sequence of visits
Time/Day log in
Time spent on site
Time spent on page
Frequency of Search
Videos Viewed
Photos liked
19
Image source: http://personalexcellence.co/blog/i deal-beauty/
City
Lifestyle
ZIPcode
Costal vsInland Maritalstatus
Generation
Location
FamilySize
Gender
Income Level
Competitors
Age
Loyalty&CardActivity
Revenue Size
Life Stages
Eductation
Legalstatus
Sector
Industry
SubscriptionsDate on Site
Wish List
Size of Network
Check-ins
App usage duration
Number of Apps on Device
Deposits/Withdrawals
Device UsagePurchase History
FollowingFollowers
Likes
Number of Hashtags used
History of Hashtags
Search Strings entered
Sequence of visits
Time/Day log in
Time spent on site
Time spent on page
Frequency of Search
Videos Viewed
Photos liked
Sentiment
Tone
Euphemisms
Hedonism
Extroversion
Face Recognition
Openess
Colloquialism
Reasoning Strategies
Language Modeling
DialogIntent
Latent Semantic Analysis
Phonemes
Ontology Analysis
Linguistics Image Tags
Question Analysis
Self-transcendent
Affective Status
20
Image source: http://personalexcellence.co/blog/i deal-beauty/
City
Lifestyle
ZIPcode
Costal vsInland Maritalstatus
Generation
Location
FamilySize
Gender
Income Level
Competitors
Age
Loyalty&CardActivity
Revenue Size
Life Stages
Eductation
Legalstatus
Sector
Industry
SubscriptionsDate on Site
Wish List
Size of Network
Check-ins
App usage duration
Number of Apps on Device
Deposits/Withdrawals
Device UsagePurchase History
FollowingFollowers
Likes
Number of Hashtags used
History of Hashtags
Search Strings entered
Sequence of visits
Time/Day log in
Time spent on site
Time spent on page
Frequency of Search
Videos Viewed
Photos liked
Sentiment
Tone
Euphemisms
Hedonism
Extroversion
Face Recognition
Openess
Colloquialism
Reasoning Strategies
Language Modeling
DialogIntent
Latent Semantic Analysis
Phonemes
Ontology Analysis
Linguistics Image Tags
Question Analysis
Self-transcendent
Affective Status
X-rays (CT scans) sound (ultrasound), magnetism (MRI), Radioactive (SPECT, PET)light (endoscopy, OCT)
Bio-Images
Clinical/Biochemical DataMicrobiome
EnvironmentDNAProteome
Steps
Nutrition
Genetics
Runs
Food
Source: Bipartisan Policy Center, F as in Fat: How Obesity Threatens Americas Future (TFAH/RWJF, Aug. 2013)
Internet of Body
BMI
Rapid growth of exogenous data is transforming healthcare
6 Terabytes
60%Exogenous Factors
1100 TerabytesVolume, Variety, Velocity, Veracity:Educational records, Employment Status, Social Security Accounts, Mental Health Records, Caseworker Files, Fitbits, Home Monitoring Systems, and more
0.4 TerabytesElectronic Medical / Health Records, Physician Management Systems, Claims Systems and more
30%Genomics Factors
10%Clinical Factors
IBM Watson Health // SOURCE: 2015 J.M. McGinnis et al., The Case for More Active Policy Attention to Health Promotion, Health Affairs 21, no. 2 (2002):7893
Data Generated per Life
Leveraging Exogenous Data for Chronic Care
60%Exogenous Factors
30%Genomics Factors
10%Clinical Factors
SOURCE: 2015 J.M. McGinnis et al., The Case for More Active Policy Attention to Health Promotion, Health Affairs 21, no. 2 (2002):7893
Glucose Monitoring
Calorie Intake
Stress LevelsPhysical Activity
Other vital signs SocialInteraction
Affinity (retail)
Sleep Pattern
> 2.5 Trillion PDF Files in the World
Majority with public and private enterprises and institutions.
Enterprise HYPERDATA
23
Multi-Modal Rich data: Text, Tables, Images, Audio, Video, Formats, Hierarchy.
PRECISION
Leveraging the Explosion of Data in Medicine An Impossible Task Without Analytics and New advanced Artificial Intelligence Computing Models
1000
Fact
s pe
r Dec
isio
n
10
100
1990 2000 2010 2020
Human Cognitive Capacity
Electronic Health Records (Clinical Data)
Internet of Things (Exogenous Data)The Human Genome (Genomic Data)
Capturing the Value of Data: Big Changes Ahead
Medical errorthe third leading cause of death in the US
Source: BMJ 2016; 353 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.i2139 (Published 03 May 2016) Cite this as: BMJ 2016;353:i2139
26
Body Mass Index (BMI)
Mass (weight - Kg) / height (cm) x height (cm)
You are Normal if your BMI is between 18.5 and 24.99
Adolphe Quetelet, 1832
27
Practice Pearls: BMI - Body mass index is a strong and independent risk factor for being diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus Type 2 diabetes risk may be incrementally higher in those with a higher body mass index Understanding the risk factors helps to shorten the time to diagnosis and treatment
How precise could be a simple signal
2017 International Business Machines Corporation
The way to find information
The way to make precise decisions
Big
Dat
a ++
2017 International Business Machines Corporation
Technology ingredients to make precise decisions: driving new Capability for Business
Artificial IntelligenceRange of techniques including natural language understanding,knowledge, reasoning and planning, for advanced tasks
Cognitive ComputingLeverage a combination decision-makingand reasoning strategies over deep domain models and evidence-based explanations, using AI/ Machine Learning tools.
Machine LearningStatistical analysis forpattern recognition to make data-driven predictions
2017 International Business Machines Corporation
Research at the heart of core AI
3
Comprehension: From video and text to rich human perception
Learning and Reasoning:From scalable machine learning to making a case
Interaction:Understanding language, tone, emotion and context
A green bird sitting on top of a bowl
Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2016 (Gartner)
https://www.ibm.com/annualreport/2016/images/dow nloads/IBM-Annual-R eport-2016.pdf
Augmenting DECISIONS
Assistant
Tools
Collaborator
Coach
Mediator
Emerging types of Cognitive Systems
Augment Decision Making is opening to new forms of collaboration between humans and machines
34
Radiologist Oncologist
Sales Assistant Tax Advisor
35
Chef Designer
Musicist Movie Director
Opportunity for decision-making
support2025
Augmenting decisions opens new opportunities on top of traditional IT
Traditional globalIT spend
Source: IBM analysis presented to the Investor Briefings
~$2T
~$1.2T
37
Top outcomes from cognitive initiatives vary by industry
Finance49% Increased market agility46% Improved customer service43% Increased customer
engagement43% Improved productivity &
efficiency42% Improved security &
compliance, reduced risk
Retail56% Personalized customer / user
experience56% Increased customer engagement56% Improved decision making &
planning 56% Reduced costs55% Improved customer service
Health66% Accelerated innovation of
new products / services66% Improved productivity & efficiency64% Improved security & compliance,
reduced risk62% Reduced costs59% Improved customer service
Manufacturing 64% Improved decision making
& planning 58% Improved productivity &
efficiency54% Improved security &
compliance, reduced risk52% Improved customer service49% Enhanced the learning
experience
Government/Education54% Personalized customer / user
experience50% Improved customer service37% Improved decision making &
planning 36% Improved productivity & efficiency33% Increased customer engagement
Professional Services40% Reduced costs36% Personalized customer/user
experience36% Improved customer service36% Expanded ecosystem34% Accelerated innovation of new
products / services
% achieving outcome with cognitive
Source: An IBM study of over 600 early cognitive adopters - 2016 Full report: http://www.ibm.com/cognitive/advantage-reports/
IBM Watson is the most advanced Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning platform to support Decision Making in Business
Toward a Precise Decision Making to reduce the wasteful spend as well as the risk in every industry
Watson:Cognitive System
IBM Cognitive Computing
45Nazioni
100+Applicationsgi nel mercato
6.000Ricercatori e Specialisti in IBM
8Lingue
200Universitorganizzano corsi su Watson
500+PartnersChe integrano Watson
API & HybridCognitive Frameworks
20Industrie
80.000Sviluppatoricostruiscono applicazionicon Watson
Watson Health5.000 Dipendenti, 6B$ di investimento
Watson InternetOf Things1000 Dipendenti, 3B$ di investimento
Watson FinantialServices
3 Unit di BusinessVerticali
200MCittadini
60MPazienti
30BImmagini
1.2MAbstractMedici
60+Soluzioni
Who: Current top players (prevalent) competitive directions and approaches
Personalized Service /Content Aggregation
Industry-oriented / Professions SpecificOutcomes via cognitive Solutions
Core Business Cognitive /Enhance Experiences
IBM (Health,Finance, )
API SERVICES /PLATFORM
AWS
Microsoft
Goggle
Amazon (Alexa)Facebook
IBM BlueMix
41
42
Keyword Extraction, Entity Extraction, Sentiment Analysis, Concept Tagging,
Conversation Intents Entities Dialogues
Personality Big5 Personality Traits Needs Values
Language Tone Emotion Social propensities Language styles
Translate Conversational News Custom TranslationPatents
Language DeepUnderstanding
Relation Extraction, Taxonomy Classification, Author Extraction.. Custom Analysis
Speech-to-text
Custom pronunciations Voice TransformationExpressive Voice
Voice synthesis
Keyword Spotting Telephony Broadband
Vision Face Recognition Image Similarity Image ClassificationCustom eyes
Source: https://www.ibm.com/watson/developercloud/services-catalog.htmlWATSON
Kind of skills
43https://www.technologyreview.com/s/603895/customer-service-chatbots-are-about-to-become-frighteningly-realistic/
The movements of Soul Machiness digital faces are produced by simulating the anatomy and mechanics of muscles and other tissues of the human face.
Soul Machines
The avatars can read the facial expressions of a person talking to them, using a devices front-facing camera
Soul Machinesmade NADIA, a chatbot for the Australiangovernment to help people getinformation aboutdisabilityservices.
44
45
Conversation
46
I am going to New York next May
Man
Walking, go around
vest
Where and When will you be using this jacket?
I'll find a jacket that fits those conditions. Are you looking for a men's or women's jacket?
Okay, I got it. What will you use this jacket for?
What styles are you looking for?
Conversation
https://www.thenorthface.com/xps
47
I am going to New York next May
Where and When will
you be using this jacket?
I'll find a jacket that fits those
conditions. Are you looking for a
men's or women's jacket?
https://www.thenorthface.com/xps
Man
Okay, I got it. What will you
use this jacket for?
Walking, go around
What styles are you
looking for?
vest
48
It will be more and more a bots vs bots marketing battle!
Our personal BOTS will buy for us, #Brands should convince them NOT us!
2017 International Business Machines Corporation
Watson OncologyA collaboration between IBM and Memorial Sloan Kettering (MSK). Watson for Oncology utilizes MSK curated literature and rationales, as well as over 290 medical journals, over 200 textbooks, and 12 million pages of text to support decisions.
Analyzes the patient's medical record Identifies potential evidence-backed treatment options Finds and provides supporting evidence from a wide variety of sources
50
51
The Medical Sieve Build a fast anomaly detection engine
Quickly filters irrelevant imagesHighlights disease-depicting regionsFlags coincidental diagnosis
Intended as a radiology assistant Clinicians still do the diagnosisMachine reduces workload Machine performs triage/decision support
Given history of the patient and images of a study
Is there an anomalous image here?If so, where is the anomaly ?Describe the anomaly
The Medical Sieve
2017 International Business Machines Corporation
86%Accuracy
2017 International Business Machines Corporation
Identification of masses in breast MRI images >93% (1)
Detection of calcified plaques in coronaryarteries from CT images > 90% (2)
Automatic Detection of Aortic Dissectionin Contrast-Enhanced CT > 83% (3)
Melanoma recognition in DermoscopicImages >84% Roc curve (sensivity>95%)
IBM Research Works from the International Symposium on Biomedical Imaging 2017
(1) Hadad, Omer at ali - (2) Tang, Hui at ali. (3) Dehghan, Ehsan at ali (4) Moradi, Mehdi at ali. (5) Ben-Ari, Rami at ali. (6) Roy, Pallab at ali. (7) edai, Suman at ali (8) Coleccala et ali.
.
Labeling Doppler images with aortic stenosis>78% (4)
Detection of Architectural distortion in Mammograms > 80% (5)
Diabetic Retinopathy detection in ColourFundus Images >86% (6)
Multi-Stage Segmentation of the Fovea in Retinal Fundus Images Error
2017 International Business Machines Corporation
7/18/1755
I.R.C.C.S. CASA SOLLIEVO della SOFFERENZAOpera di San Pio da Pietrelcina
7/18/1756
7/18/1757
7/18/1758
59
7/18/17
Stories
2017 International Business Machines Corporation
Memories are a bridge among generations
7/18/17Tales
2017 International Business Machines Corporation
Weather is the secret to understanding how consumers feel and cook
A brand able to gain a spot in the daily routines and rituals of consumers creates a not only a relation but a deep intimacy with them
63
https://watsonads.com
Watson Ads
16
65
CREATIVECOMPUTING
66
MARCHESAA dress that think
JASONGRECH Fashion zeitgeist
Food Knowledge Database
CombinatorialDesigner
Cognitive Assessor
DynamicPlanner
Peer Produced Inspiration Set
Novel Customized
Recipe
Cognitive Cooking System
67
How does Cognitive Cooking work?
Raw Data- Recipes- Recipes contexts- Chemical/Flavour Data- Hedonic psychophysics- Background knowledge (e.g. Wikipedia for regional cuisines, etc)...
- Bayesian surprise- Flavor Pleasantness...
Data-drivenDecisions
106 >1015-23
Watson Chef with Bon Apptit
Live at: https://www.ibmchefwatson.com/tupler
69
70
Creations from the Cognitive Collection Designed by JASONGRECH and IBM Watson
Source: https://www.ibm.com/blogs/think/2016/08/cognitive-fashion/
71Source: https://www.ibm.com/blogs/think/2016/08/cognitive-fashion/
Source: https://www.ibm.com/blogs/think/2016/08/cognitive-movie-trailer/
1) A visual analysis2) An audio analysis3) An analysis of each scenes composition
IBM Research Takes Watson to Hollywood with the First Cognitive Movie Trailer
Watson / Presentation Title / Date74
WatsonPlatform
75 IBM Cognitive Cloud | Electrolux Digital Summit 2017
Cloud InfrastructureA highly scalable, security enabled infrastructure
DataTools to prepare data for cognitive
AICognitive building blocks for developers
Applications, solutions and servicesTargeted solutions for enterprise businesses
IBM delivers an architecture engineered for disruption
Cognitive Systems leverage machine learning to predict meaning in features of human language (spoken, written, visual) and related forms of human reasoning
76 IBM Cognitive Cloud | Electrolux Digital Summit 2017
Cloud InfrastructureA highly scalable, security enabled infrastructure
DataTools to prepare data for cognitive
AICognitive building blocks for developers
Applications, solutions and servicesTargeted solutions for enterprise businesses
Ingestion
ConversationA
PI
Storage Analytics Deployment Governance
WatsonHealth
Solutions
WatsonCyber
SecurityWeather
IBM Services & Ind.
Solutions
WatsonVirtual Agent
Watson Explore
and Discover
IBM Risk and
Compliance
Asset Mgmt.
(Maximo)
Visual RecognitionA
PI
Discovery
AP
I
Speech
AP
I
Compare and ComplyA
PI
Document ConversionA
PI
DLaaS
AP
I
Nat Language UnderstandingA
PI Nat Language
ClassifierAP
I
ToneAnalyzerA
PI Personal
InsightAP
I
KnowledgeQueryA
PI
IBM delivers an architecture engineered for disruption
Cloud Integration
Networking SecurityCore
Enterprise Infrastructure
CognitiveSystems
Virtual Servers File Storage
Object Storage
Cognitive Micro-services DevOps Tooling
ISV Solutions Client Solutions
77 IBM Cognitive Cloud | Electrolux Digital Summit 2017
Data analyticsServe modelTrain model
Cognitive technologies transform data into augmented intelligence that drives differentiated experiences and outcomes
Cognitive micro-services driven tooling
CurateTraining data
ConversationAPI
ToneAnalyzerAP
I
Document ConversionAP
I
DiscoveryAPI
PersonalInsightAP
I
Nat Language UnderstandingAP
I
Compare & ComplyAP
I
Visual RecognitionAPI
Nat Language ClassifierAP
I
DLaaSAPI
SpeechAPI
KnowledgeQueryAP
I
AI
https://developer.ibm.com/academic/ https://www.ibm.com/developerworks/
78 IBM Cognitive Cloud | Electrolux Digital Summit 2017
IBM Academic Initiativehttps://developer.ibm.com/academic/
References
Bluemixhttps://www.ibm.com/cloud-computing/bluemix/
79
CLOSING
Chief ArtificialIntelligence Officer
Chief Data Scientist
Chief InformationOfficer
Chief DataOfficer
DATA INFORMATION KNOWLEDGE WISDOM
A number A STREET number
A map of a City
A GPS root recommendationto go from A to B
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/sep/08/artificial-intelligence-beauty-contest-doesnt-like-black-people
https://www.partnershiponai.org/
Cognitive Principles
1. Purpose
2. Transparency
3. Skills
Source: https://www.ibm.com/ibm/responsibility/ibm_policies.html
The purpose of AI and cognitive systems developed and applied by the IBM company is to augment human intelligence.
The IBM company will make clear: a) When and whatpurpose of a cognitive solution; b) Major Data Used; c) Protect Customer Data & Insights ownership.
IBM company will work to help students, workers and citizens acquire the skills and knowledge to engagesafely, securely and effectively in a relationship with cognitive systems, and to perform the new kinds of work and jobs that will emerge in a cognitive economy.
Thank youfor your attention.
Pietro Leo Executive Architect & CTO
Chief scientist, and research strategist IBM ItalyIBM Academy of Technology Leadership Team pieroleo.com
July 18, 201785
1st Place Image
Source: COCO Challengehttps://www.ibm.com/blogs/bluemix/2016/12/watsons-image-captioning-accuracy/
1st Place Speech
Watson says: A green bird sitting on top of a bowl
IBM Leadership in AI to understand our world
Watson error rate: 5.5%
Source: Switchboard conversational corpushttps://www.ibm.com/blogs/watson/2017/03/reaching-new-records-in-speech-recognition/
86 IBM Cognitive Cloud | Electrolux Digital Summit 2017
Data analyticsServe modelTrain model
Ready to use Affective Computing services in the Watson Platform
Cognitive micro-services driven tooling
CurateTraining data
ConversationAPI
ToneAnalyzerAP
I
Document ConversionAP
I
DiscoveryAPI
PersonalInsightAP
I
Nat Language UnderstandingAP
I
Compare & ComplyAP
I
Visual RecognitionAPI
Nat Language ClassifierAP
I
DLaaSAPI
SpeechAPI
KnowledgeQueryAP
I
AI
= Affective Service
Emotional Tone: joy, fear, sadness, disgust, anger
Social Tone: openness, conscientiousness, extraversion,
agreeableness, emotional range or neuroticism
Language Tone:Analytical, confidence, tentative
Customer Engagement Tone:Sad, Frustrated, Satisfied, Excited, Polite,
Impolite, Sympathetic
87 IBM Cognitive Cloud | Electrolux Digital Summit 2017
Data analyticsServe modelTrain model
Ready to use Affective Computing services in the Watson Platform
Cognitive micro-services driven tooling
CurateTraining data
ConversationAPI
Document ConversionAP
I
DiscoveryAPI
PersonalityInsightAP
I
Nat Language UnderstandingAP
I
Compare & ComplyAP
I
Visual RecognitionAPI
Nat Language ClassifierAP
I
DLaaSAPI
SpeechAPI
KnowledgeQueryAP
I
AI
= Affective Service
Big Five dimensions Emotional Range, Consciousness, Openness,
Introversion/Extroversion, Agreeableness,
Big Five facets(30 sub dimensions)
NeedsStructure, Curiosity, Challenge, Ideal, Stability
ValuesStimulation, Tradition, Helping others, Taking
pleasure in life, Achievement
ToneAnalyzerAP
I
88 IBM Cognitive Cloud | Electrolux Digital Summit 2017
Data analyticsServe modelTrain model
Ready to use Affective Computing services in the Watson Platform
Cognitive micro-services driven tooling
CurateTraining data
ConversationAPI
ToneAnalyzerAP
I
Document ConversionAP
I
DiscoveryAPI
PersonalityInsightAP
I
Nat Language UnderstandingAP
I
Compare & ComplyAP
I
Visual RecognitionAPI
Nat Language ClassifierAP
I
DLaaSAPI
SpeechAPI
KnowledgeQueryAP
I
AI
= Affective Service
ExpressivenessGoodNews, Apology, Uncertainty
Voice TransformationYoung, Soft
Custom: Pitch, pitch range,, glottal tension, breathiness, rate timbre (sunrise, Breeze)
89 IBM Cognitive Cloud | Electrolux Digital Summit 2017
Data analyticsServe modelTrain model
Ready to use Affective Computing services in the Watson Platform
Cognitive micro-services driven tooling
CurateTraining data
ConversationAPI
ToneAnalyzerAP
I
Document ConversionAP
I
DiscoveryAPI
PersonalityInsightAP
I
Nat Language UnderstandingAP
I
Compare & ComplyAP
I
Visual RecognitionAPI
Nat Language ClassifierAP
I
DLaaSAPI
SpeechAPI
KnowledgeQueryAP
I
AI
= Affective Service
Emotionsjoy, fear, sadness, disgust, anger
Target Emotions for Entities
(24 main types of entities)
(433 subtypes)Custom entities
Keywords