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DrillingdownintonetworksfromtheAPNICdata
APNICusesadvertstomeasure
Theoverlayboxisrunninganadvert-It’sacCvecode.Wemakegraphslikethisfromthedata
APNICmeasurementsystem
• Runningsince2010• AcollecConofspecificwebsites,andadverCsingchannelbasedcollecCons
• End-Usermeasurementdirectlyinthebrowser• “whatcanpeoplereallydo”• Currently12-15millionsamplesperday– 8musableoutcomes
• AdjustedbyITUuserstaCsCcstoaccountforplacementbiases
APNICusedflashtomeasure
• Flashhadmanyissues– ItsnotinstalledbydefaultonmanyOS,Browsers– Usersdisableit
• Increasinglyitsbeingabused– Longlistofexploits– Spamandotherbadbehaviours– IntrusiveadverCsing‘capturing’thescreen
Endofflash:newsat11
• A\ermanyyears,googlehasrespondedtocommunitycomplaintandclosedoff‘defaultrun’for3rdpartyflashcontentonwebpages– AsofSeptember1,flashdoesnotrunbydefaultunlessidenCfiedascriCcalforthewebpage
– Thirdpartyflash(adverts)inparCcularaffected
Endofflash:newsat11
• Asaresult,ourrandomharvestofendusercapabilityfromflashhasended.
• Wehadaplan…
StartofHTML5
• TheadverCsingecologyhasmovedfromflashtoHTML5(javascript)withCghtercontrolsonwhatcanbedoneinsidetheadvert
• WedevelopedjavascriptformeasurementsomeCmeago,andhadcodereadytorun– (ifyouwanttoaddjavascriptbasedmeasurementstoyourwebsite,wecantalk)
StartofHTML5
• WegotapprovalfromgoogletoconCnueourmeasurementsinsideanHTML5model
• ThishasbeenrunninginparallelwithFlashbasedcollecConsinceJune
• Wehavenowcutovertoexclusivelymeasuringend-userbehavioursusingHTML5– ThereissomedisconCnuityinthedatabutwebelievethefundamentalmeasurementisconsistent:Weseewhatenduserssee
Flashhaditslimits
• Itturnsout,thevastmajorityofourflashmeasurementranonWindowspladorms– FlashonOSX,infirefoxrequiredhandinstallaCon– SomeAndroidsystemscamewithflashinstalled
• Mostdidn’t
– FewiOSdeviceshadflash
Flashhaditslimits
• BecauseWindowsdoesn’trunmuchoncellularnetworks(exceptthrough‘mifi’devicesandwindowsphoneswhichhaveverysmallmarketshare)
• WehadligleinsightintoMobiledevicenetworks– Wesaw‘mifi’viewsof3&4G,andWiFi,butnotmuchofthetruecellularnetwork.
HTML5offersnewopportuniCes
• Wenowseeamuchmore‘interesCng’mixofoperaCngsystemsandbrowsers– WeseeAndroidandiOSdevices
• WenowhaveinsightsintothebehavioursofthesedevicesoncellularnetworksaswellasWiFi
Eyeballshare
• APNIC’sadvertisplacedonrandomdevices– Googlehasaconsistentrecordofanear-linearrateofpresentaConontonewIPaddresses
– Thereisnoobviousbiastoanyspecificprovider• Thereareclearbiasestoeconomieswhichacceptcheapadverts,whichweadjustforusingtheITUmodelofworldpopulaConandregisteredsubscribers
Eyeballshare
• WhatweseeisthereforeafirstapproximaConreflecConofrelaCveshareofthoseeyeballs– Itsnot‘marketshare’butitiseyeball,browserbasedshare.
– Insomeeconomies(KR)itdoesn’tlookagoodfit• Wealsoseeintocorporate,transitandothernetworks– Someofthesehavequitelarge‘footprints’ofusers(Facebook,Opera,Google)
Somesignificantrecentdeployments
• Ifwelookintosomerecentbigdeploymentscanweseehowthedifferentend-userdevicesareaffectedbytheIPv6technology?
Somesignificantrecentdeployments
• SkyUK• Cableprovider,naConwide– Nocellular,butlotsofhomeWiFi– Upgrading80,000customerspernighttoIPv6
• Top-3providerofbroadbandintheUKfromtheirowndata– Currentlythetoprankedend-userproviderintheUKfromoureyeballdata
– hgp://stats.labs.apnic.net/v6pop?c=GB&d=2
ASNrankedbyeyeballshareASN ASName IPv6
CapableIPv6Preferred
Eyeballshare
AS5607 BSKYB-BROADBAND-ASSkyUKLimited
16.76% 16.07% 20.35%
AS5089 NTLVirginMediaLimited 0.02% 0.01% 19.00%
AS2856 BT-UK-ASBTPublicInternetService 0.01% 0.01% 17.54%
AS13285 OPALTELECOM-ASTalkTalkCommunicaConsLimited
0.01% 0.01% 6.41%
AS12576 ORANGE-PCSEELimited 0.01% 0.01% 4.05%
AS9105 TISCALI-UKTiscaliUKLimited 0.00% 0.00% 2.59%
AS60339 H3GUKHutchison3GUKLimited 0.01% 0.00% 2.36%
AS6871 PLUSNETPlusNetplc. 0.15% 0.13% 2.14%
AS43234 TT-AOLUK-ASTalkTalkCommunicaConsLimited
0.01% 0.01% 1.73%
AS21321 ARETI-ASAreCInternetLtd. 48.51% 48.44% 1.65%
SkyBroadbandOverallIPv6
SkyBroadbandnon-mobileIPv6
SkyBroadbandMobiledeviceIPv6
SkyBroadbandiOS/AndroidIPv6
Cabledoesn’tdisadvantage
• Nostrongbiastoanydevicetype(desktop,mobile)orOS(Windows,OSX,Android,iOS)– Allwificonnecteddevicesbehindv4onlybasestaConsshowlowereffecCveIPv6capability
• Skyisadual-stackdeploymentinmixofPPP,IPoE,centrallymanagedcablemodemplan
• TheUKislikelytogetto20%+IPv6capabilityby2016atthisrateofdeployment(ithasslowedbuttheyconCnuetoconvertcustomers)
• WhatwillcompeCtorprovidersdo?
iOSand464xlat
• ApplemadeadecisionNOTtoimplement464xlatmechanisms– iOSdevicesonav6cellularnetworkdonotsupport464xlat.
• ThereforewherethereissignificantiOSdeployment,464xlatexcludesiOS
• Canweseethis?
T-Mobile
• WeknowT-MobileUSAdeployed464xlat– PureIPv6withtranslaConforIPv4
• It’spredominantlyaCellularproviderwithsomeWiFiservices
• ItshouldhaveastrongsignalofIPv6capability– WithnosignificantiOSusage
T-Mobile
T-Mobile
T-Mobile
T-Mobile
iOSAndroid
464XLatworks
• Themechanismclearlyworks– Androiddevicesshowremarkablyhigh,consistentlevelofIPv6capability
• WithGoogle,Facebook,Cloudflare,AkamainowrouCnelysupporCngdual-stackcontentitislikelyasignificant%oftrafficflowsoverIPv6andreducespressureontheCGN/NATrequirementforIPv4
• ThetechnologywillnotmakesenseforacompanywithlargeiOShandsetdeployment
Koreaismoving!
• EarlyBroadbandadopConnaConwide• SignificantinvestmentintechnologylockedtoIPv4– NoupgradeopContoCPEdevicesdeployednaConwide
– NaConaldatanetworkincludesswitchingtechnologyandotherinvestmentswhichblockIPv6
• Butonecellularproviderhasdeployed464xlat..
SKTelecom
• 20mcustomers– inmarketofapprox~49mmobiledevices– (morethanonedeviceperuser)
• KRhasmoremobilesthanbroadbandathome– ~20mpremises
• Approx4mcustomersalreadyconvertedto464XLat– RunningmulCpleAPN,nonupgradeddevicesv4only
S-KTelecomoverallIPv6
S-KTelecomnon-mobileIPv6
S-KTelecommobileIPv6
S-KTelecomiOS/AndroidIPv6
iOS
Android
S-KTelecom
• Clearsignalof464xlateffectoniOSdevices• LoweroverallpenetraConrate• TechnologydeploymentincellularavoidspidallsoflegacyIPv4-onlybroadbanddeployments
• KRnaConalIPv6probablyexceeds2%fromthissingledeployment– (oureyeballsharefiguresforKRdon’treflectlocalmarketcondiConswell)
Canweseethissignalanywhereelse?
• HighAndroid,LowiOSv6capabilityisastrongsignalof464xlatdeployment
• ContrastwithroughlyequalizedIPv6capabilityoftruedual-stackCellular,Cable&ADSLbaseddeployments– nobiasagainstiOSexists
IPv6Capability:US
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
ASNrankedbyeyeballshareASN ASName IPv6
CapableIPv6Preferred
Eyeballshare
AS7922 COMCAST-7922-ComcastCableCommunicaCons,Inc.
55.49% 51.15% 15.91%
AS7018 ATT-INTERNET4-ATTServices,Inc. 72.54% 67.10% 8.78%
AS701 UUNET-MCICommunicaConsServices,Inc.dbaVerizonBusiness
0.10% 0.02% 5.23%
AS16509 AMAZON-02-Amazon.com,Inc. 0.01% 0.00% 3.84%
AS20115 CHARTER-NET-HKY-NC-CharterCommunicaCons
0.08% 0.02% 3.44%
AS22773 ASN-CXA-ALL-CCI-22773-RDC-CoxCommunicaConsInc.
0.65% 0.53% 3.38%
AS22394 CELLCO-CellcoPartnershipDBAVerizonWireless
89.29% 82.42% 3.09%
AS21928 T-MOBILE-AS21928-T-MobileUSA,Inc.
69.55% 68.71% 2.75%
AS209 CENTURYLINK-US-LEGACY-QWEST-QwestCommunicaConsCompany,LLC
0.12% 0.06% 2.60%
AS20057 ATT-MOBILITY-LLC-AS20057-ATTMobilityLLC
9.54% 9.40% 2.18%
USA• AT&T–bothcellularandhomeservicedelivery– IPv6deploymentbelievedtobetruedual-stack
• VerizonCellular,someWiFibasedservices– Dual-stackIPv6deploymentoncellular/WiFi
• Comcast–largenaConalcableprovider– Dual-stackdeploymentoncable– Manylegacyusers– Hasasignificant‘tripleplay’modelinIPv6
• Sprint,mixofdifferentservicesincludingT-1backbone,Wireless,Cellular
AT&T
AT&T
Stronglygroupeddata.NobiasagainstiOSNotusing464xlattranslaContechnology
AS20057AT&TMobility
AS20057AT&TMobility
NosignificantiOSIPv6seenHowever,non-mobiledevicesseenIsthis464XlatorjustanAPNissue?
Android
iOS
Verizon
Verizon
Stronglygroupeddata.NobiasagainstiOSNotusing464xlattranslaContechnologyLowernon-mobiledevicecapability,probablysignalsuseofMiFiandolderOS
Comcast
Comcast
Stronglygroupeddata.NobiasagainstiOSNotusing464xlattranslaContechnologyLoweroverallIPv6capabilityduetolegacy
AS3651SprintBB6
AS3651SprintBB6
Weaklyseparateddata.SomebiasagainstiOSMaybeusing464xlattranslaContechnology?Fewnon-mobiledevicesseenOristhisavendorspecifichandset-sellbias?
Android
iOS
Anywhereelse?
• CanweseesignalsinanyotherASN?
• OrangePoland
OrangePoland
Android
iOS
Iwanttobelieve…
OrangePoland
Android
iOS
Somethinghappened!
OrangePoland
• NoCngapregylong-livedanomolyinthemeasurement,theoverallimpressionisofaloweriOSIPv6capabilitybehindthisASN.– WhenIPv6capabilitysurgesittracksAndroiddevicesverystrongly
• MaybeiPhone6salestookoffandthey’redoinganon-v6APN?
Anyotherbigdeployments?
IPv6Capability:EC
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
ASNrankedbyeyeballshareASN ASName IPv6
CapableIPv6Preferred
Eyeballshare
AS14420 CORPORACIONNACIONALDETELECOMUNICACIONES-CNTEP
15.08% 14.24% 44.24%
AS27947 TelconetS.A 0.28% 0.27% 14.65%
AS14522 Satnet 0.00% 0.00% 14.07%
AS27738 EcuadortelecomS.A. 0.00% 0.00% 7.88%
AS27668 ETAPAEP 0.01% 0.01% 4.30%
AS22724 PUNTONETS.A. 0.00% 0.00% 3.66%
AS23487 CONECEL 0.01% 0.00% 3.26%
AS19114 OtecelS.A. 0.01% 0.01% 2.50%
AS28006 CORPORACIONNACIONALDETELECOMUNICACIONES-CNTEP
0.00% 0.00% 1.64%
AS52257 TelconetS.A 0.00% 0.00% 0.79%
AS14420CORPORACIONNACIONALDETELECOMUNICACIONES-CNTEP
AS14420CORPORACIONNACIONALDETELECOMUNICACIONES-CNTEP
Groupeddata.NobiasagainstiOSNotusing464xlattranslaContechnology
IPv6Capability:BR
012345678910
ASNrankedbyeyeballshareASN ASName IPv6
CapableIPv6Preferred
Eyeballshare
AS28573 CLAROS.A. 13.01% 12.15% 24.70%
AS18881 GlobalVillageTelecom 15.96% 14.50% 16.75%
AS7738 TelemarNorteLesteS.A. 1.14% 1.08% 11.15%
AS27699 TELEFNICABRASILS.A 2.82% 2.57% 8.46%
AS8167 BrasilTelecomSA-FilialDistritoFederal
0.83% 0.78% 6.58%
AS26599 TELEFNICABRASILS.A 2.49% 2.28% 2.39%
AS26615 TimCelularS.A. 0.05% 0.03% 1.46%
AS53006 ALGARTELECOMSA 0.04% 0.03% 1.33%
AS13591 BrasilTelecomComunicaoMulCmidia
0.00% 0.00% 1.00%
AS4230 CLAROS.A. 0.12% 0.02% 0.68%
AS28573Claro,Brasil
Stronglygroupeddata.NobiasagainstiOSNotusing464xlattranslaContechnology
IPv6Capability:PE
02468101214161820
ASNrankedbyeyeballshareASN ASName IPv6
CapableIPv6Preferred
Eyeballshare
AS6147 TelefonicadelPeruS.A.A. 20.02% 19.13% 80.42%
AS12252 AmericaMovilPeruS.A.C. 0.03% 0.02% 15.55%
AS262253 ECONOCABLEMEDIASAC 0.17% 0.13% 0.73%
AS27843 OPTICALTECHNOLOGIESS.A.C. 0.14% 0.13% 0.73%
AS52400 OlodelPeruS.A.C 0.00% 0.00% 0.70%
AS262210 VIETTELPERS.A.C. 0.05% 0.02% 0.57%
AS19180 AMERICATELPERUS.A. 0.16% 0.14% 0.42%
AS263224 EMPRESADETELECOMUNICACIONESMULTIMEDIAALFA
0.00% 0.00% 0.29%
AS21575 ENTELPERUS.A. 0.06% 0.01% 0.24%
AS28032 INTERNEXAPERUS.A 0.04% 0.02% 0.14%
AS6147TelefonicaDelPeru
Groupeddata.NobiasagainstiOSNotusing464xlattranslaContechnology
LowiOSpresence• I*believe*thattherelaCvecostofiOSdevicesinLACregionishigh:– ‘Apple-tax’:consistentworldwidepricing– SomeeconomicfactorsindifferentnaConaleconomies(importtaxes,foreigncurrencycontrols)
– SignsthatLACconsumerswithdirectaccesstoUSmarketsshopintheUSA,forsignificantpurchaseslikeaniPhone
• Androiddevicesaremuchmoreprice-variant– HighandlowendunitsavailablefromarangeofprovidersincludingtradingrelaConshipsinBRICS
IfligleiOS..ThenXLATcanwork!
• LowpenetraConofiOSmeansthat464Xlatisnotabarriertosignificantcustomervolume
• IfitmakessenseeconomicallytofavouratransiConmechanismlike464Xlat,theevidenceisthatitworks,andwillreducepressureonyourIPv4addressbindingsonanyNAT/CGN
• However,nosignsofsignificantdeploymentofXLATinLACregion
IPv6Capability:CA
012345678910
ASNrankedbyeyeballshareASN ASName IPv6
CapableIPv6Preferred
Eyeballshare
AS812 ROGERS-CABLE-RogersCableCommunicaConsInc.
0.66% 0.05% 16.20%
AS6327 SHAW-ShawCommunicaConsInc. 0.04% 0.01% 15.04%
AS852 ASN852-TELUSCommunicaConsInc. 18.45% 16.89% 14.63%
AS577 BACOM-BellCanada 0.01% 0.01% 14.57%
AS5769 VIDEOTRON-VideotronTelecomLtee
2.56% 2.34% 7.56%
AS7992 COGECOWAVE-CogecoCable 2.11% 1.86% 3.04%
AS855 CANET-ASN-4-BellAliantRegionalCommunicaCons,Inc.
0.04% 0.00% 2.87%
AS5645 TEKSAVVY-TekSavvySoluCons,Inc. 0.87% 0.77% 2.55%
AS803 SASKTEL-SaskatchewanTelecommunicaCons
0.01% 0.00% 1.46%
AS7122 MTS-ASN-MTSAllstreamInc. 0.03% 0.02% 1.44%
AS852-TELUSCommunicaConsInc.
Groupeddata.NobiasagainstiOSNotusing464xlattranslaContechnology
Otherworldwidedeployments
IPv6Capability:FI
012345678910
ASNrankedbyeyeballshareASN ASName IPv6
CapableIPv6Preferred
Eyeballshare
AS1759 TSF-IP-CORETeliaSoneraFinlandOyj 0.14% 0.09% 25.16%
AS16086 DNADNAOy 18.83% 17.80% 23.03%
AS790 EUNETFIElisaOyj 4.05% 3.96% 21.24%
AS719 ELISA-ASElisaOyj 0.62% 0.14% 16.72%
AS2586 UNINET-ASElisaEesCAS 4.14% 4.12% 5.16%
AS15527 ANVIAAnviaOyj 0.07% 0.01% 1.85%
AS1741 FUNETASCSC-TieteenCetotekniikankeskusOy
6.79% 6.69% 1.44%
AS24751 MULTIFI-ASJakobstadsnejdensTelefonAb
0.02% 0.02% 0.50%
AS39699 SSPOY-ASSSPYhCotOy 0.16% 0.04% 0.50%
AS29422 NBLNETWORKS-ASNebulaOy 1.56% 1.30% 0.42%
AS16086DNADNAOy
Android
iOS
AmassivebiasagainstIPv6onAndroid???
Ok..Ican’texplainthis.
• MaybethisisaDHCPv6deploymentwithoutDHCPv6-PD?
• HardtounderstandwhytherewouldbeasystemaCcbiasagainstAndroiddevicesfavouringiOS,– comparedto464xlatwhichisunderstoodtobiasagainstiOScapability
IPv6Capability:NO
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
ASNrankedbyeyeballshareASN ASName IPv6
CapableIPv6Preferred
Eyeballshare
AS2119 TELENOR-NEXTELTelenorNorgeAS 9.76% 9.20% 50.99%
AS29695 ALTIBOXASAlCboxAS 1.74% 1.68% 10.22%
AS41164 GET-NOGetAS 27.05% 23.28% 8.48%
AS15659 NEXTGENTELNextGenTelAS 0.04% 0.04% 6.22%
AS2116 ASN-CATCHCOMBroadnetAS 0.06% 0.03% 5.16%
AS224 UNINETTUNINETT,TheNorwegianUniversityResearchNetwork
17.84% 16.29% 3.04%
AS12929 NETCOM-ASTeliaSoneraNorgeAS 0.05% 0.01% 2.64%
AS39832 NO-OPERAOperaSo\wareASA 51.75% 22.83% 2.24%
AS49455 LOQAL-ASLoqalAS 0.03% 0.00% 1.07%
AS15765 MIMERTa}ordMarkedAS 1.57% 1.48% 0.96%
AS2119TelenorNorgeAS
Weaklygroupeddata.SomebiasagainstiOSUnclearifusing464xlattranslaContechnology
RomaniandeploymentsofSignificance
• AS8708RCS-RDSSA• AS3223VoxilityS.R.L.
• BothshowsignificantlylowerIPv6capabilityonmobiledevices,suggesCngtheyarepredominantlycable/ADSLdeployments,withlocalWiFinotpropagaCnganIPv6prefixorusingatransiConmechanismwhichdoesn’tsupportmobiledevices.
AS8708RCS-RDSSA
Groupeddata.WeakbiasagainstmobiledevicesNotusing464xlattranslaContechnology
AS3223VoxilityS.R.L.
Groupeddata.StrongbiasagainstmobiledevicesNotusing464xlattranslaContechnology
Conclusions• APNIChasmovedawayfromadependencyonFlashandgainedinsightintomoredevices
• APNICisnowabletoseeinsideMobile&Cellularnetworks,andseesignificantdeploymentdifferencesemergefromtransiConmethod,technologies
• TransiConmechanismslike464xlatworkandcanboostIPv6capabilityintherightcircumstances– ReducespressureonCGN/NATaddressdevices– CannotsupportiOS,whichmaynotmagerinsomemarkets
ThankYou!
• ThankstoGoogle,ISC,RIPENCCforhosCngandassistancewiththeresearchprogramme
• IfyouareinterestedinIPv6measurementsthereisalottotalkaboutoverabeer…
ThankYou!