E commerce round up 2014 report

E-commerce Round up India 2014 “A Reality Check”

Published On: March 2014

By

eStatsIndia.com

B2C E-commerce Round up India 2014

E-commerce Round up Overview: Executive Summary

The B2C E-commerce market round-up comes to be commissioned at a most opportune time.The market is witness to a lot of traction and action today. The VCs, the fund managers and the investors are pumping in their monies into new ventures, and also into existing players. And not just that, but even the big B2C E-retail vendors are now staking a share in other such players by investing or funding in them. This ongoing market action and shake-up will eventually see more consolidation and buy-ups happening among market players in India.

The present report surmises the latest shake-up and action in the market ecosystem. To undertake this, first fundamental question of understanding the constituents of the market has been dwelled upon in detail. This calls for an analysis of the business model of B2C E-commerce vendors by evaluating their online product categories, payment mechanisms and channels of delivery. The analysis in the present report puts forth clearly the lead market players and the business models being followed by them. These constitute the market ecosystem.

The report undertakes a thorough reality check of the E-commerce Market in India. The market size of the entire market (retail and non-retail) in terms of product categories has been calculated. The market size is in terms of revenues accrued out of online sales of all vendors. E-Retail is smaller than Non E-retail (which includes travel) in India. This report focuses only on the E-Retail segment of the B2C E-commerce market.

A Reality Check of the market also calls for an evaluation of the performance of the E-retail vendors. For this, the revenues accrued by these vendors have been calculated. Other financial ratios indicating their performance have also been analyzed. This presents a very clear picture of where the market is headed and who all are the current lead players in this market.

In continuation of our Reality Check the report further establishes the number of Internet Buyers at present active in the market ecosystem. These buyers are the ones who are not just online shoppers (who visits online sites but don’t necessarily end up buying) but online buyers (who visits online sites but end up buying also). These online buyers have been calculated product category-wise. This further establishes the top E-Retail product categories witnessing maximum traction in terms of buyers in this market. The report also presents a matrix detailing the demographic profile of an Internet Buyer that puts forth the profile of the target audiences to lead vendors in a very succinct manner.

The Reality Check Report couldn’t be complete without addressing the critical question of digitally addressable market in India. Based on the latest Census 2011 data and our analysis we have segmented the entire pan India market to arrive at City/District and State wise categorization of the digitally addressable market in India.

So this E-commerce Round up Report 2014 is a reality check presenting; the overall market size, performance evaluation of the lead E-Retail Vendors, Internet Buyers product category-wise, demographic profile of Internet Buyers and finally the digitally addressable market for vendors. All numbers presented in the Report presents the current status and the future projections going forward for the year 2012, 2013 and 2014.

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B2C E-commerce Vendors Performance Valuation

GMV Method Gross Merchandise Vale (GMV) method as such leaves much to be desired, if used as a metric to evaluate the actual financial performance of E-retail vendors. Such a measurement is flawed as it also presents an unclear picture of actual revenues, market size/share and the overall sales performance of these vendors. A more prudent method of doing so is the “Net E-commerce Revenues or Net E-Marketplace Revenues method. These revenues are actual commissions accrued by the vendor based on each sale done through their online channel.

Net E-commerce Revenues MethodThis method of revenue calculation factor-in critical factors like; Access Devices, Internet Shoppers, Internet Buyers, SOBO’s (search online and buy offline) and online product categories on offer at vendors shopping site. So with all such overlaps and double counting taken care of the final revenue numbers arrived at presents a very lucid picture of the health of the E-retail vendor. IAD (Internet Access Device) Device usage multiplicity has to be factored in. The report stats and data cuts cover the following key parameters in these calculations; How many Internet users are actually accessing Internet? How many are doing a “Search Online & a Buy Offline (SOBO)? What access devices are being used by them?

Multiple Vendor Shopping Sites are Accessed by Internet BuyersInternet shoppers hit multiple vendors many a times. They get double counted by all of them in such a case though final sales closure happens mostly with one.

Fastest Retail CategoriesFastest selling product retail categories have been worked out based on the number of Internet buyers actually making a buy online in these categories. Internet buyers (who search as well as buy) and not Internet shoppers (who just search and don’t buy), is therefore the metric used to arrive at the fastest selling E-retail categories on these vendors sites.

E-Retail Vendors RevenuesE-commerce Revenues as commission fee have been calculated for E-retail Vendors. These revenues are their Net E-commerce Revenues. These calculations are based on an in-depth analysis of the financial performance of the vendors. Various financial ratios including annual ROG (rate of growth in %) were looked into and analyzed for the purpose of evaluation the financials.

Base data, quantitative data sets and other qualitative inputs on these vendors were collated and analyzed from varied secondary sources including vendor filings and related company specific information.


B2C E-commerce Market Overview

Indian E-Retail ecommerce market is set to continue growing in coming years. The market stood at around $1.93 billion in 2013. The market will grow at a CAGR of 37.46% from 2012 to 2014 going forward. However, it will be a while before mobile starts contributing to E-retail sales in a major way. eStatsIndia.com has undertaken a reality check on the B2C E-commerce market by a roundup of crucial market statistics, latest trends in E-Retail, and key research insights for E-Retail Vendors. This will be a ready referral report for E-Retail Vendors to help them strategize their growth trajectory going forward.

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Issues & Questions?

The report addresses and answers very pertinent questions facing the B2C E-commerce Market in India?All stats and data sets covered present a historical trend as well as future projections going forward.

a. How to evaluate the performance of Vendors?

b. B2C E-commerce Market Size?

c. B2C E-commerce Vendor Analysis; Vendors & E-Retail Product Categories

d. B2C E-commerce Vendor Revenues 2013

e. Internet Buyers product category-wise; Mobile Internet Buyers

f. How many of the Internet Shoppers do “Search Online and Buy Offline” (SOBO)?

g. Demographic Profile of Online Buyers in India

h. Digitally Addressable Market in India

i. Trends in E-Retail going forward

j. Key Research Insights for B2C E-commerce Vendors


B2C E-commerce Market Size India

Total India B2C E-commerce Market Size (In terms of net e-commerce revenues INR) 2013

Table 1: E-Retail Market Size (In Rs. Billions) India 2013

E-Retail Product Category-wise

Market Size

in

Rs. Billion

Clothing/Accessories/Shoes53,150,650,04

7

Consumer Electronics/Computer Hardware (Recreational) 2,403,403,044

Jewellery & Watches 8,018,554,108

CDs/MP3/Video/Cassettes/DVDs/ Computer Software (Communications)11,308,019,52

9

Beauty Products/Cosmetics/Nutrition Supplies & Toilet Products Personal

Non Durables

14,393,504,93

6

Event & Movie Tickets (Entertainment),

Leisure (Books, Gifts, Music, Flowers & Gifts), Sporting Goods6,268,901,325

Videos & Games Download 2,090,194,810

Food, Home Provision, & Groceries 5,939,999,013

Others (Automobile & Parts, Toys/Dolls, Flowers & Gifts) 1,922,407,212

Total105,495,634,0

24

Source: eStatsIndia.com Analysis and calculations based on Internet Users & E-commerce Market Model Version 1.0.xls

Table 2: Non E-Retail Market Size (In Rs. Billions) India 2013Non E-Retail

Product Category-wise

Market Size

Rs. Billion 2013

Airline ticket/Reservations

Tours/ Hotel Reservations428,739,696,000

Classifieds (Matrimonial Services & Jobs) 123,327,954,289

Digital Downloads 36,450,000,000


TOTAL 588,517,650,289

Source: eStatsIndia.com Analysis and calculations based on Internet Users & E-commerce Market Model Version 1.0.xls


Table 3: E-Retail Market Size (In Rs. Billions) India 2012-2014 & CAGR

Table 4: Non E-Retail Market Size (In Rs. Billions) India 2012-14 & CAGR

B2C E-commerce Vendor Analysis

What Constitutes the Market Ecosystem?

Table 5: Break-Ups (in %) of B2C E-commerce Vendors in terms of Business Models 2013

Figure 1: Vendors Share of the Market Pie 2013

Source: eStatsIndia.com Analysis


Table 6: E-Retail Vendors Prevalent Business Models 2013

B2C E-commerce Vendor Revenues(Revenues are Net E-commerce revenues in USD millions) 2013

Table 7: Major B2C E-commerce Operator Company Revenues1 FY 2013; (in USD millions)

Table 8: Vendors Revenues FY2013; Revenues are Net E-commerce Revenues2 (in USD millions)

M-Commerce in India

Table 9: M-commerce Market Size (as % of E-Retail) 2013

Table 10: M-commerce (includes m-ticketing & m-coupons) Market Size (In INR millions) 2013

Mobile Devices & Other High End Devices Access By Internet Shoppers

E-Retail Vendors and Fastest Growing Product Categories

Table 11: New & Upcoming E-Retail Categories in last 6 months (prior to March 2014)

E-Retail Vendors & their Product CategoriesHow can they be audited?

Table 12: Top 10 Best Selling E-Retail categories 2013(Ranks in Terms of their market size shares; in Rs. billions)

Going Forward: “Top E-Retail Categories in 2014”

The top E-retail categories will be; Clothing, Beauty & Lifestyle, Toilet Products, Personal Non Durables, Jewellery & Watches and Consumer Communication gadgets like CDs/MP3/Video/DVDs etc.

However other key Retail categories like Event Movie Tickets, Books, Gifts, Music, and Sporting Goods are fast catching up. Another key category showing promising growth is Food, Home Provision & Groceries and Computer Hardware. Videos and Games download is another upcoming fast growing category showing traction in the retail market space.

These upcoming categories will witness further traction as the market will grow and more shoppers’ takes the online route for their varied shopping needs.

Internet Buyers

Table 13: Internet Buyers (In millions) Product Category-wise 2013

1 Revenues as latest available for the complete portfolio2 Revenues as latest available


Table 14: B2C E-commerce Market Internet Buyers (In Millions) Product Category-wise 2012-14


Average Spends Per Internet Buyer India How much an Internet Buyer Spends?

Table 15: Average B2C E-commerce Spends Per Internet Buyer 2012 to 2014, (in INR)

Table 16: B2C E-commerce Product Category Ranks 2013(Ranks in terms of Internet Buyers)

Table 17: Internet Buyers Overall Universe 2013

Mobile Internet Buyers

Table 18: Mobile Internet Buyers in India, 2012-2014

Table 19: Pure Mobile Internet Buyers (PMIB’s) in India (In millions), 2012-2014

Search Online and Buy Offline (SOBO)

How many of the shoppers do SOBO? Search Online and Buy Offline?

Influence of Digital Channels on Spending PatternsOne of the crucial questions facing E-commerce Vendors today is; “How the use of digital channels may impact consumer spending?

Table 20: Internet Buyers Universe Doing SOBO* Device wise (as %) India 2013

Demographic Profile of Internet Buyers in India, 2012-2015

Table 21: Demographic Profile of Internet Buyers in India, 2012-2015

Digitally Addressable Market in India

Where the E-commerce Market growth is going to come from?

Table 22: E-commerce Market Segmentation City/Districts and States Categorization as; Tier I, Tier II, Tier III and Tier IV Cities

Optimal City Mix to Target by E-Retail Vendors

Table 23: Optimum City Mix to Target to Achieve Highest Growth Rates in next 1 to 2 Years


Trends in E-Retail going forward

E-commerce is it really growing In India?It will be a while before this really happens. Due to a lack of low Internet penetration hovering around 10% to 11%, the market as such has huge potential to grow, but as of now the rate of adoption is skewed towards mobile and it will be a while before m-commerce picks up.

Also it will take a while for new and upcoming Internet users to make a noticeable dent in the Internet commerce market. As such the growth of B2C E-commerce in India is contingent upon multitude of factors that are at play. This also includes infrastructure and network up-gradations and overhaul.

Where the market is headed for?The market is headed toward consolidation. The VCs want this, investors want that and now even the vendors have realized that to move forward Consolidation among them is imminent. Flipkart.com is in talks to take over Myntra.com or Snapdeal.com may be taken over by eBay India in the coming few months.

This will be good for the investors, the vendors as well as the Internet shoppers. With too many players in the lead and all competing to corner a share of the market pie this is eventually bound to happen. Even smaller and upcoming players in the market will be taken over by other big tickets players in coming few months.

Is E-commerce proposition profitable at all in India? When and How? As of now almost all of the B2C E-commerce vendors are bleeding as they are burning cash to sustain their ships. This is especially so in case of E-retail players. Recently, players like Indiaplaza.com realized this and have tweaked their business model accordingly but going by the state of the market it will be a while before their business model starts giving them profitability.

Players with deep pockets have sustained burning cash for revenues so far although all of them are making huge losses on their balance sheet. Going by the consolidation phase and by diversifying their business models (in terms of delivery, logistics etc.) can the market becomes profitable. This will however happen only a year or so down the line.

Lead B2C Players in India and how they are different from others?Who will sustain the game in next 1 to 2 years?

The big giant of an E-retailer, undoubtedly the biggest and smartest of them all is already knocking at Indian doors. With the launch of the Indian presence of Amazon as Amazon.in the market is all set to witness great action in coming few months. The other remaining key players in the market namely; FK.com, eBay.in, Snapdeal.com and Myntra.com will face intense competition from Amazon. On one side will be pitted the vast pool of cash, extensive experience and talent and fine tuned business model of Amazon and on the other will be the muscle and money of top Indian players, their early market lead and familiarity with the Indian Online market. Already Indian players have started aligning their business models with Amazon.in by offering same day delivery.

The market will witness traction as a result of this competition and the best and smartest of them will be a winner in the coming year or so.


Key Research Insights for B2C E-commerce Vendors

Internet Ads as effective revenue generating mode online In the last year or so the sinking bottom lines of the vendors have further pushed them to go for aggressively pushing alternate revenue streams online. Internet Advertising has always been a major focus of vendors in this scheme of things. Advertising revenues of B2C E-commerce vendors have seen a spike in last couple of years.

New Internet Ads formats, key measurement metrics and availability of alternate access devices including mobile available in the market, the Internet advertising has shown good returns for B2C E-commerce vendors. It will continue to be an effective alternate revenue source for vendors along with the mainstream net revenue accrued from e-commerce.

What‘s a perfect marketing mix for B2C vendors?The key product categories that are profitable for vendors in terms good margins and are also quite popular among Internet shoppers are Apparel, Electronics, FMCG and Jewellery & Lifestyle categories. Other categories like gifts, flowers, food and home provision also show promising growth trends. The perfect product mix depends on various factors including profit margins, delivery period, product return policy and finally price discounts offered by vendors.

Shoppers on the other hand also show a liking for easy to access product categories along with good discounts all at one site. Our research shows that offering varied products with low margins won’t be a better idea for vendors rather than vertically offering product lines that are less in numbers but offer good margins. This strategy, buffers them against high returns and at the same time also bring down their customer acquisition costs.

What’s the most prevalent mode of paying for goods and services online?With more than half of the population unbanked in the country and credit card penetration only at half of our total population Cash-On-delivery or (COD) rules the payment delivery game as of now. But with big players like Amazon.in entering the market space the payment and the delivery models will witness alternatives being offered by vendors. “One Day” delivery model recently being incorporated by lead vendors is a push in this direction especially so when Amazon.in have entered Indian shores. Amazon follows a One day delivery model.

This will also push for a change among shoppers to make payments online on a go. Already irctc.co.in is a successful example of such a change clearly proving that if the TRUST factor enters the shoppers psyche she can be prompted to use her credit/debit cards for making online payments related to travel in India.

“We anticipate the same trend in the India E-retail Market also, provided the payment denominations are low, backend infrastructure is quite robust and there is an instant resolution of a shoppers need leading to a gratifying online shopping experience.


Complete Report Contains:Total No. of Pages: 26Total No. of Tables: 23No. of Figure: 1

To Access The Report Please Contact:Vikram BhardwajeStatsIndia.comInternet Research & Consulting, New Delhi, IndiaM: +91 9810474007 or e-mail at: [email protected]_________________________________________________________________

Research Analysts

Amita SharmaVikram Bhardwaj_________________________________________________________________

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