Forecasting the WebRTC Market - Presentation from Paris WebRTC Conference Dec'14

WebRTC: By The Numbers Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis

Upperside WebRTC Conference, Paris, 16/12/2014

[email protected] @disruptivedean

mailto:[email protected]



About Disruptive Analysis

London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm

Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors

Contrarian with controversial opinions

Covering WebRTC since almost Day 1: June 2011

Reports on WebRTC Markets & Strategies Feb’13 & Sep’14

First & most detailed forecasts for WebRTC

Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 December 2014

The first, the most detailed & most-updated WebRTC forecasts

WebRTC forecasting


Top-down

Device support & active use of WebRTC

Browser/OS support + 3rd-party APIs

PC + smartphone + tablet + IoT/M2M

Bottom-up

Per use-case / application area

Use by individuals (regular/occasional)

Enterprise, Consumer, Telco, B2C, OTT

Built-into apps / OS

2014 Definitions: Purists need not apply


“WebRTC” is more a philosophy

than a fixed standard

Javascript WebRTC APIs

W3C

IETF RTCWeb Protocols

Browser


(+maybe modifications)

3rd party APIs & cloud

platforms

Plug-ins

ORTC API (coming soon)


Browser + ???

??

Gateways

IMS

UC

Call

centre

etc

Browser statistics are complex & contradictory


Global PC installed base

by primary browser,

year-end, million

Source: Disruptive Analysis 2014 Edition WebRTC Report

Users, usage, primary, regional variation: all need consideration

WebRTC on >6bn devices by 2019


Million WebRTC

devices, year-end


But be aware of huge variations by region / country

But what about market value or usage?

Where is the money? £$€¥

Where are the minutes?


De-lamination means hard to put a $/€ value


Connectivity

UI / UX

Cloud / Processing / APIs / PaaS

Application Logic

Identity / Security / Interoperability

Firewall traversal APIs

Bandwidth estimation

WebRTC IaaS

Decomposed

functions or

auxiliary

services

Transcoding aaS

Public network gateway

Identity APIs

Cloud platform & APIs

Open-source libraries

Comms-enabled OS

Mobile SDKs & APIs

Cloud storage

Analytics aaS

Browse / app / hybrid

Testing

3rd-party buttons/APIs

Where exactly do you measure revenues / value? “It depends”

WebRTC vendor/platform space is complex


General +

mobile SDK

Products Services

Functions

Solutions

Platforms

Gate-

ways/

SBCs

API

pltfms

2013

2014

App

Pltfm

TURN

Media

Server

aaP

Video

chat

IMS/

WebR

TC

Vertical SaaS

(CRM, HR etc)

Media

servers

UC &

UCaaS

Messaging

CRM/

CCs

UC

Legacy telecom stats like “calls” often irrelevant


Minutes? WebRTC Internet traffic?


Lead WebRTC use-cases, End-14

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Report 2014 Edition

Customer service & platforms

• Mayday, Amex etc video support

• Contact centres (internal / call-me)

• Developer SDKs/platforms

• Analytics & processing

Consumer web apps & enterprise UC

• Mobile consumer VoIP & social chat

• Remote 1-1 education/training/healthcare

• Free standalone video-calling

• Conferencing niches & web extensions

• Innovative UC & collaboration

• Google (Chromecast, Hangouts etc)

Live &

commercial

• Full-scale corporate conferencing & UC

• CDNs

• File/screen-sharing & anonymous search

Pilots / pre-

commercial

Trials &

demos

• Telco VoLTE/IMS extension

• Entertainment & consumer electronics

• IPTV & personal broadcast

• M2M & IoT

• Public Safety

Knowledge-workers will adopt WebRTC widely


Million individuals,

year-end


… but not necessarily through a traditional UC “seat”

Enterprise comms becoming “dis-unified”?

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014 September 2014

UC

core

WebRTC APIs Customer

interaction

Collaboration &

conferencing

Vertical

apps

Mobility Horizontal

apps

UC extended by WebRTC UC marginalised by WebRTC

User UC

Conferencing

Integrated app

needing legacy

telephony etc

Comms-enriched

apps & cloud

services

Federated apps,

common platform

Standalone apps

Mobile apps

via WebRTC

app framework

2bn+ potential WebRTC users by 2019


Million WebRTC

users, year-end

Source: Disruptive Analysis 2014 WebRTC Report

See: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

Note: Complex definitions & assumptions. Categories overlap. Inquire for details

Significant % of global Internet users end-2019


Million consumer embedded

VoIP/video users, year-end

Source: Disruptive Analysis 2014 WebRTC Report

Conclusions – WebRTC numbers aren’t easy!

Definitions & assumptions!

Device support mostly OK

Big regional variations

Uptake differs per-use case

Regular / occasional

Enterprise vs. Telcos vs. Consumer Web

IoT / M2M / TV

Platforms

$€ Value needs custom analysis

Addressability

Suitable metrics & indicators


www.disruptive-analysis.com

disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

@disruptivedean

[email protected]

Skype:disruptiveanalysis

WebRTC: appear.in/disruptiveanalysis


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