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4 Q14 presentation
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FY14 and 4Q14 Earnings Conference Call
October 9, 2014
A Word of Caution Certain statements contained in this presentation which are not historical facts are forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements address the Company’s plans, activities or events which the Company expects will or may occur in the future.
A number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements. Such factors, risks and uncertainties are set forth under the headings “Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements,” or “Risk Factors” or "Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operation" in the Company’s annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed or to be filed, respectively, and which are expressly incorporated herein by reference.
You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of October 9, 2014. The Company does not undertake to update or revise its forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that projected results expressed or implied in such statements will not be realized, except as may be required by law.
In addition, a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures discussed in this presentation to the comparable GAAP financial measures is included in our earnings release, which is available on our website.
2
Agenda
Introduction & Safe Harbor Kiley Rawlins, CFA VP – IR & Communications
FY14 Highlights Howard Levine Chairman & CEO
Financial Review Mary Winston Chief Financial Officer
FY15 Operational Plan Howard Levine
Questions & Answers Howard Levine Mary Winston
3
FY14 Highlights
Howard Levine Chairman & CEO
FY14 Strategic Actions
• Price investments
• Workforce optimization
• Store closures
• Square footage growth reductions
5
Opportunities to strengthen our value
proposition and increase operational efficiencies
to improve our financial performance
FY14 Key Accomplishments
• Opened 526 new stores and renovated, relocated or expanded 738 stores
• Increased direct-to-factory purchases
• Increased private brand consumables penetration
• Reduced inventory shrink
• Improved store manager turnover
• Simplified store level tasks to improve execution
• Upgraded POS systems in more than 1,100 stores
6
Comparable Sales Trends
0%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
Total Company
7
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
Consumables
Discretionary Sales
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
Apparel & Accessories
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
Home Products
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
Seasonal & GM
8
(Comparable Store Sales)
Financial Review
Mary Winston Chief Financial Officer
4Q14 Highlights
• Total net sales increase 4.5% to $2.61 billion
• Comparable store sales increase 0.3%
• Adjusted Earnings per diluted share of $0.73*
– Gross margin pressure
– SG&A deleverage
10
*Excludes $0.43 relating to restructuring charges and fees for pending merger with Dollar Tree
Fourth Quarter Revenues
$2.50
$2.61
Net Sales (billions)
4Q13 4Q14
0.0%
0.3%
Comparable Store Sales Growth
4Q13 4Q14
11
Fourth Quarter Gross Profit
12
34.7%
34.0% 33.8%
34.5%
33.3%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13* 4Q14^
Gro
ss P
rofi
t ($
M)
Gross Profit Trends
GM$ GM Rate
Headwinds
• Lower merchandise markups
• Mix pressure
Improvements
• Lower inventory shrinkage
• Lower markdowns
*Excludes a 5.0 million favorable adjustment related to a change in accounting for certain vendor allowances ^Excludes $10.4 million of inventory markdowns related to restructuring/ store closing initiative
Fourth Quarter SG&A Expense
13
28.8%
28.1% 28.0%
28.5%
28.9%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14
SG&
A E
xpen
se (
$M
)
SG&A Trends
SG&A SG&A (% of Sales)
• Lower sales growth
• De-leverage
– Store occupancy
– Insurance
• Leverage
– Incentive compensation
Fourth Quarter Operating Profit
5.9% 5.9% 5.8% 6.0%
4.4%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
4Q10 4Q11 4Q12* 4Q13** 4Q14^
Op
erating M
argin
Op
erat
ing
Pro
fit
($M
)
Operating Profit Trends
Operating Profit Operating Margin
14
*Excludes a litigation charge of $11.5 million **Excludes a $5.0 million favorable adjustment related to a change in accounting for certain vendor allowances ^Excludes $55.2 million of restructuring charges, $10.4 million of inventory write-downs related to restructuring/ store closing initiative and $9.4 million of merger fees
Fourth Quarter Earnings Results
(in millions except for per share amounts)
4Q13 4Q14 Change
Net Income $102.2 $34.5 -66.3%
Adjusted Net Income* $99.0 $83.9 -15.3%
Diluted Earnings per Share
$0.88 $0.30 -65.9%
Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share*
$0.86 $0.73 -15.1%
Weighted average shares – diluted
115.6 114.3
15
*Excludes a one-time $5.0 million favorable adjustment related to a change in accounting for certain vendor allowances in 4Q13 and excludes $55.2 million of restructuring charges, $10.4 million of inventory write-downs related to restructuring/ store closing initiative and $9.4 million of merger fees in 4Q14
Annual Revenues
$10.4 $10.5
Net Sales (billions)
FY13* FY14
3.0%
-2.1%
Comparable Store Sales Growth
FY13 FY14
16
*FY13 is a 53-week year
Annual Gross Profit
17
35.7% 35.5% 34.9%
34.2% 33.8%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13* FY14^
Gro
ss P
rofi
t ($
M)
Gross Profit Trends
GM$ GM Rate*FY13 was a 53-week year *Excludes a $5.0 million favorable adjustment related to a change in accounting for certain vendor allowances ^Excludes $10.4 million of inventory markdowns related to restructuring/ store closing initiative
Headwinds
• Mix pressure
• Lower initial markups
• Higher markdowns
Improvements
• Lower freight costs
• Lower inventory shrinkage
Annual SG&A Expense
18
28.4%
28.2%
27.7% 27.6%
28.8%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13* FY14
SG&
A E
xpen
se (
$M
)
SG&A Trends
SG&A SG&A (% of Sales)*FY13 is a 53-week year
• Lower sales growth
• De-leverage
– Store occupancy
– Store labor
• Leverage
– Incentive compensation
– Advertising
Annual Operating Profit
7.3% 7.3% 7.2%
6.6%
5.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
FY10 FY11 FY12* FY13** FY14^
Op
erating M
argin
Op
erat
ing
Pro
fit
($M
)
Operating Profit Trends
Operating Profit Operating Margin
19
*Excludes a litigation charge of $11.5 million **FY13 was a 53-week year; excludes a $5.0 million favorable adjustment related to a change in accounting for certain vendor allowances ^Excludes $78.2 million of restructuring charges, $11.9 million of inventory write-downs related to restructuring/ store closing initiative and $9.4 million of merger fees
Annual Earnings Results (in millions except for per share amounts)
FY13* FY14 Change
Net Income $443.6 $284.5 -35.9%
Adjusted Net Income** $440.4 $349.3 -20.7%
Diluted Earnings per Share
$3.83 $2.49 -35.0%
Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share**
$3.80 $3.05 -19.7%
Weighted average shares - diluted
115.8 114.4
20
**Excludes a $5.0 million favorable adjustment related to a change in accounting for certain vendor allowances in FY13 and excludes $78.2 million of restructuring charges, $11.9 million of inventory write-downs related to restructuring/ store closing initiative and $9.4 million of merger fees in FY14
*FY13 is a 53-week year
$152 $164
$192 $185 $200
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
(th
ou
san
ds)
21
• Anniversary of FY12 consumables expansion
• Consumable assortment changes
• Early FY14 holiday receipts
Capital Expenditures
$212
$345
$603
$744
$436
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
(mill
ion
s)
22
Fiscal 2014
• New store openings ($149M)
• Renovation program ($141M)
• Existing stores ($73M)
• Corporate/ IT ($42M)
• Supply Chain ($31M)
Investing Activities
$744
$436
$345
$195
FY13 FY14
(millions)
Capital Expenditures Sale Leaseback Proceeds
23
Store Activity FY13 FY14
Openings Closings Openings Closings
1Q 125 1 126 1
2Q 126 17 118 21
3Q 129 3 111 3
4Q 120 5 171 375
FY 500 26 526 400
Ending Store Count 7,916 8,042
Selling square footage (in 000s) 56,846 58,112
Renovations, Relocations and Expansions
830 738
24
Returning Capital to Shareholders
79 83 91 108 130
332
670
192 75
125
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
(mill
ion
s)
Dividends Share Repurchases
25
FY15 Operational Plans
• Open 375 new stores, close 40 stores and renovate, relocate or expand 775 stores
• Develop clustering initiative
• Strengthen customer value perception
• Expand coolers
• Expand adult beverage program
• Continue pallet delivery program
26
FY14 and 4Q14 Earnings Conference Call
October 9, 2014