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FY14 and 4Q14 Earnings Conference Call October 9, 2014

4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

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Page 1: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

FY14 and 4Q14 Earnings Conference Call

October 9, 2014

Page 2: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

A Word of Caution Certain statements contained in this presentation which are not historical facts are forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements address the Company’s plans, activities or events which the Company expects will or may occur in the future.

A number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements. Such factors, risks and uncertainties are set forth under the headings “Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements,” or “Risk Factors” or "Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operation" in the Company’s annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed or to be filed, respectively, and which are expressly incorporated herein by reference.

You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of October 9, 2014. The Company does not undertake to update or revise its forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that projected results expressed or implied in such statements will not be realized, except as may be required by law.

In addition, a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures discussed in this presentation to the comparable GAAP financial measures is included in our earnings release, which is available on our website.

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Page 3: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

Agenda

Introduction & Safe Harbor Kiley Rawlins, CFA VP – IR & Communications

FY14 Highlights Howard Levine Chairman & CEO

Financial Review Mary Winston Chief Financial Officer

FY15 Operational Plan Howard Levine

Questions & Answers Howard Levine Mary Winston

3

Page 4: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

FY14 Highlights

Howard Levine Chairman & CEO

Page 5: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

FY14 Strategic Actions

• Price investments

• Workforce optimization

• Store closures

• Square footage growth reductions

5

Opportunities to strengthen our value

proposition and increase operational efficiencies

to improve our financial performance

Page 6: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

FY14 Key Accomplishments

• Opened 526 new stores and renovated, relocated or expanded 738 stores

• Increased direct-to-factory purchases

• Increased private brand consumables penetration

• Reduced inventory shrink

• Improved store manager turnover

• Simplified store level tasks to improve execution

• Upgraded POS systems in more than 1,100 stores

6

Page 7: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

Comparable Sales Trends

0%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14

Total Company

7

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14

Consumables

Page 8: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

Discretionary Sales

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14

Apparel & Accessories

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14

Home Products

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14

Seasonal & GM

8

(Comparable Store Sales)

Page 9: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

Financial Review

Mary Winston Chief Financial Officer

Page 10: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

4Q14 Highlights

• Total net sales increase 4.5% to $2.61 billion

• Comparable store sales increase 0.3%

• Adjusted Earnings per diluted share of $0.73*

– Gross margin pressure

– SG&A deleverage

10

*Excludes $0.43 relating to restructuring charges and fees for pending merger with Dollar Tree

Page 11: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

Fourth Quarter Revenues

$2.50

$2.61

Net Sales (billions)

4Q13 4Q14

0.0%

0.3%

Comparable Store Sales Growth

4Q13 4Q14

11

Page 12: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

Fourth Quarter Gross Profit

12

34.7%

34.0% 33.8%

34.5%

33.3%

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13* 4Q14^

Gro

ss P

rofi

t ($

M)

Gross Profit Trends

GM$ GM Rate

Headwinds

• Lower merchandise markups

• Mix pressure

Improvements

• Lower inventory shrinkage

• Lower markdowns

*Excludes a 5.0 million favorable adjustment related to a change in accounting for certain vendor allowances ^Excludes $10.4 million of inventory markdowns related to restructuring/ store closing initiative

Page 13: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

Fourth Quarter SG&A Expense

13

28.8%

28.1% 28.0%

28.5%

28.9%

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14

SG&

A E

xpen

se (

$M

)

SG&A Trends

SG&A SG&A (% of Sales)

• Lower sales growth

• De-leverage

– Store occupancy

– Insurance

• Leverage

– Incentive compensation

Page 14: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

Fourth Quarter Operating Profit

5.9% 5.9% 5.8% 6.0%

4.4%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

4Q10 4Q11 4Q12* 4Q13** 4Q14^

Op

erating M

argin

Op

erat

ing

Pro

fit

($M

)

Operating Profit Trends

Operating Profit Operating Margin

14

*Excludes a litigation charge of $11.5 million **Excludes a $5.0 million favorable adjustment related to a change in accounting for certain vendor allowances ^Excludes $55.2 million of restructuring charges, $10.4 million of inventory write-downs related to restructuring/ store closing initiative and $9.4 million of merger fees

Page 15: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

Fourth Quarter Earnings Results

(in millions except for per share amounts)

4Q13 4Q14 Change

Net Income $102.2 $34.5 -66.3%

Adjusted Net Income* $99.0 $83.9 -15.3%

Diluted Earnings per Share

$0.88 $0.30 -65.9%

Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share*

$0.86 $0.73 -15.1%

Weighted average shares – diluted

115.6 114.3

15

*Excludes a one-time $5.0 million favorable adjustment related to a change in accounting for certain vendor allowances in 4Q13 and excludes $55.2 million of restructuring charges, $10.4 million of inventory write-downs related to restructuring/ store closing initiative and $9.4 million of merger fees in 4Q14

Page 16: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

Annual Revenues

$10.4 $10.5

Net Sales (billions)

FY13* FY14

3.0%

-2.1%

Comparable Store Sales Growth

FY13 FY14

16

*FY13 is a 53-week year

Page 17: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

Annual Gross Profit

17

35.7% 35.5% 34.9%

34.2% 33.8%

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13* FY14^

Gro

ss P

rofi

t ($

M)

Gross Profit Trends

GM$ GM Rate*FY13 was a 53-week year *Excludes a $5.0 million favorable adjustment related to a change in accounting for certain vendor allowances ^Excludes $10.4 million of inventory markdowns related to restructuring/ store closing initiative

Headwinds

• Mix pressure

• Lower initial markups

• Higher markdowns

Improvements

• Lower freight costs

• Lower inventory shrinkage

Page 18: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

Annual SG&A Expense

18

28.4%

28.2%

27.7% 27.6%

28.8%

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13* FY14

SG&

A E

xpen

se (

$M

)

SG&A Trends

SG&A SG&A (% of Sales)*FY13 is a 53-week year

• Lower sales growth

• De-leverage

– Store occupancy

– Store labor

• Leverage

– Incentive compensation

– Advertising

Page 19: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

Annual Operating Profit

7.3% 7.3% 7.2%

6.6%

5.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

FY10 FY11 FY12* FY13** FY14^

Op

erating M

argin

Op

erat

ing

Pro

fit

($M

)

Operating Profit Trends

Operating Profit Operating Margin

19

*Excludes a litigation charge of $11.5 million **FY13 was a 53-week year; excludes a $5.0 million favorable adjustment related to a change in accounting for certain vendor allowances ^Excludes $78.2 million of restructuring charges, $11.9 million of inventory write-downs related to restructuring/ store closing initiative and $9.4 million of merger fees

Page 20: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

Annual Earnings Results (in millions except for per share amounts)

FY13* FY14 Change

Net Income $443.6 $284.5 -35.9%

Adjusted Net Income** $440.4 $349.3 -20.7%

Diluted Earnings per Share

$3.83 $2.49 -35.0%

Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share**

$3.80 $3.05 -19.7%

Weighted average shares - diluted

115.8 114.4

20

**Excludes a $5.0 million favorable adjustment related to a change in accounting for certain vendor allowances in FY13 and excludes $78.2 million of restructuring charges, $11.9 million of inventory write-downs related to restructuring/ store closing initiative and $9.4 million of merger fees in FY14

*FY13 is a 53-week year

Page 21: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

$152 $164

$192 $185 $200

$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

$125

$150

$175

$200

$225

$250

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

(th

ou

san

ds)

21

• Anniversary of FY12 consumables expansion

• Consumable assortment changes

• Early FY14 holiday receipts

Page 22: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

Capital Expenditures

$212

$345

$603

$744

$436

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

(mill

ion

s)

22

Fiscal 2014

• New store openings ($149M)

• Renovation program ($141M)

• Existing stores ($73M)

• Corporate/ IT ($42M)

• Supply Chain ($31M)

Page 23: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

Investing Activities

$744

$436

$345

$195

FY13 FY14

(millions)

Capital Expenditures Sale Leaseback Proceeds

23

Page 24: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

Store Activity FY13 FY14

Openings Closings Openings Closings

1Q 125 1 126 1

2Q 126 17 118 21

3Q 129 3 111 3

4Q 120 5 171 375

FY 500 26 526 400

Ending Store Count 7,916 8,042

Selling square footage (in 000s) 56,846 58,112

Renovations, Relocations and Expansions

830 738

24

Page 25: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

Returning Capital to Shareholders

79 83 91 108 130

332

670

192 75

125

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

(mill

ion

s)

Dividends Share Repurchases

25

Page 26: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

FY15 Operational Plans

• Open 375 new stores, close 40 stores and renovate, relocate or expand 775 stores

• Develop clustering initiative

• Strengthen customer value perception

• Expand coolers

• Expand adult beverage program

• Continue pallet delivery program

26

Page 27: 4 q14 earnings-presentation-final-v001_w49n6e

FY14 and 4Q14 Earnings Conference Call

October 9, 2014