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Maria das Graças Silva Foster CEO Conference Call/Webcast February 26th, 2014
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4th Quarter and
2013 Year End Results
2013 Results
Maria das Graças Silva Foster
CEO
Conference Call/Webcast
February 26th, 2014
2 2
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS:
DISCLAIMER
The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about future events within the
meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of
the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are not based on historical facts
and are not assurances of future results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect
the Company’s current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry
conditions, company performance and financial results. Such terms as "anticipate",
"believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with
similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forward-looking statements.
Readers are cautioned that these statements are only projections and may differ
materially from actual future results or events. Readers are referred to the documents
filed by the Company with the SEC, specifically the Company’s most recent Annual
Report on Form 20-F, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results
to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, including, among other
things, risks relating to general economic and business conditions, including crude oil and
other commodity prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates, uncertainties
inherent in making estimates of our oil and gas reserves including recently discovered oil
and gas reserves, international and Brazilian political, economic and social
developments, receipt of governmental approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain
financing.
We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking
statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or for any
other reason. Figures for 2014 on are estimates or targets.
All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by this
cautionary statement, and you should not place reliance on any forward-looking
statement contained in this presentation.
NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources,
that we are not permitted to present in documents filed with the United States
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to
Regulation S-K because such terms do not qualify as proved, probable or
possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S-X.
DISCLAIMER
4th Quarter and
2013 Year End Results
4 4
Main Discoveries in Brazil 2013
RRR Brazil: 131% (above 100% for the 22 years in a row)
Reserves/Production = 20 years
Offshore wells drilled: Post-salt (14) + Pre-salt (17)
R$ 17.3 billion invested in exploration in 2013
Proven Reserves totaled 16.6 Bi boe. RRR* in Brazil above 100% for 22 years in a row. Highlights for new exploratory frontiers - Sergipe-Alagoas and Potiguar.
Espírito Santo
Post-salt
Arjuna
Campos Basin
Post-salt
Mandarim
Santos Basin
Pre-salt
Sul de Tupi / Florim / Sagitário
Iara Extensão 4 / Entorno de Iara
Iguaçu Mirim / Franco Leste
Iara Alto Ângulo / Jupiter Bracuhy
Potiguar
Post-salt
Pitú
Sergipe - Alagoas
Post-salt
Farfan 1 / Muriú 1 / Moita Bonita 1
Highlights in Brazil – 2013
Exploratory Activity
16.6 Billion boe
Proven Reserves 2013
4%International
96%
2013
Brazil Oil + NGL
Natural Gas
2013
85%
15%
59%64%
75%
2011 2012 2013
Pre-salt: 100%
Success Ratio in Brazil
*RRR: Reserves Replacement Ratio
5 5
Oil and NGL production in Brazil reached 1,931 kpbd in 2013, down by 2.5% from 2012.
Natural decline during the last 12 months below expected range of 10-11%.
1,980
-2.5%
2012
1,931
2013
Petrobras Oil and NGL Production in Brazil in 2013: 1,931 kbpd
Main factors that impacted production in 2013:
P-63/Papa-Terra: changes in the subsea layout, postponing 1st oil (Jul/13 to Nov/13).
Cid. de São Paulo/Sapinhoá and Cid. de Paraty/Lula NE: unavailability of the monobuoys (China), as well as difficulties during
installation, delaying the ramp-up of the systems (BSR1 Jul/13 to Feb/14).
P-55/Roncador Module III: delay in system delivery, postponement of 1st oil (Sep/13 to Dec/13).
P-58/Parque das Baleias: delay in system delivery, postponement of 1st oil (Nov/13 to Mar/14).
EWT-Franco: cancelled due to delay in receiving authorization from ANP (FPSO Dynamic Producer).
Limited availability of PLSVs (Pipe-Laying Support Vessels) impacted the pace of interconnection of wells, due to the delayed
decision of contracting abroad (should have been contracted by the end of 2011, but were contracted from Apr/2013).
1.961
Mar-12
1.993
Feb-12
2.098
Jan-12
2.110
1.850
50
Dec-13
1.964
Nov-13
1.957
Oct-13
1.960
Sep-13
1.979
Aug-13
1.908
Jul-13
1.888
Jun-13
2.150
May-13
1.892
Apr-13
1.900
1.950
2.050
1.924
Mar-13
1.846
Feb-13
1.920
Jan-13
1.965
Dec-12
2.032
Nov-12
1.968
2.100
1.940
Sep-12
1.843
Aug-12
1.928
Jul-12
1.940
2.200
1.979
2.250
2.000
2.300
Jun-12
1.960
May-12
1.989
Apr-12 Oct-12
Thousand bpd 2013: 1,931 kbpd 2012: 1,980 kbpd
1Q12 Avg. 2,066
2Q12 Avg. 1,970
3Q12 Avg. 1,904
4Q12 Avg. 1,980
1Q13 Avg. 1,910
2Q13 Avg. 1,931
3Q13 Avg. 1,924
4Q13 Avg. 1,960
6 6
Oil products sales increased by 4% in 2013. Higher increase in production (6%), especially diesel (+8.6%) and gasoline (+12.1%) reduced oil
products import needs.
Sales (2,383 kbpd) and Oil Products Output (2,124 kbpd) in Brazil
Oil Products Sales in Brazil Oil Products Output
937 984
106106
9884
590 LPG
Jet Fuel
Naphtha
Fuel Oil
2,383
2013
Others
+4%
Gasoline
Diesel
231 171
203
2012
2,285
570
224 165
199
Thousand bbl/d
+3.5%
+5.0% 782 850
13790
106
9693
2013
Others 196
Naphtha
LPG
Fuel Oil
2,124
438
238
143
1,997
491
255
2012
206
Gasoline
Diesel
Jet Fuel
+6%
Better performance due to the start-up of new quality and conversion units since
2012, optimization of refining processes and elimination of logistical bottlenecks.
Utilization of refineries reached 97%, higher than 94% in 2012, with a 82% share
of domestic crude oil processed.
+12.1%
+8.6%
Thousand bbl/d
Gasoline (+3.5%): increase in automotive fleet, competitive price relative to ethanol
and increase of the anhydrous ethanol content in Type C gasoline .
Diesel (+5.0%): increase in retail activities, higher thermal consumption, higher grain
harvest and an increase in diesel light vehicle fleet.
Fuel Oil (+16.7%): increased consumption at thermoelectric plants for electricity
generation and higher demand from suppliers of natural gas to thermal power plants.
7 7
Average Realization Price Brazil* x Average Realization Price US Gulf**
*Considers Diesel, Gasoline, LPG, Jet Fuel and Fuel Oil
** Considers Brazilian market volumes for the above mentioned products.
In 2013 we had 3 price increases in diesel and 2 in gasoline, totaling 20% and 11% increases respectively.
The Real devaluation contributed significantly to the non-convergence of prices throughout the year.
Oil Products Price - Brazil vs International
Dec
/13
Nov
/13
Oct
/13
Sep
/13
Aug
/13
Jul/1
3
Jun/
13
May
/13
Apr
/13
Mar
/13
Feb
/13
Jan/
13
Dec
/12
Nov
/12
Oct
/12
Sep
/12
Aug
/12
Jul/1
2
Jun/
12
May
/12
Apr
/12
Mar
/12
Feb
/12
Jan/
12
Pri
ces
(R$/
bb
l)
2012 2013
Average Sales Price USGC
Jun 25th
Adjustments
July 16th Average Sales Price Brazil Adjustments
Jan 30th Mar 6th
Nov 30th
Adjustments
Losses
Gasoline Imports Diesel Imports
Imp
orted
Vo
lum
es (kbp
d)
8 8
million m³/day
Domestic
Bolivia
LNG
SUPPLY DEMAND
40,2
37,0
11,7
39,3
Higher thermoelectric demand (+52%) due to the lower rainfall in the period, met mainly by LNG imports and natural gas from Bolivia.
+15%
85.9
2013
14.5
30.5
40.8
2012
74.9
8.4
27.0
39.5 39.3
23.0
2013 2012
12.1
34.9
11.9
74.5
85.4
38.6
+15%
+52%
2013 x 2012
Higher thermoelectric demand due to lower rainfall.
Thermoelectric generation using natural gas was 6 GW/average in 2013, 58% above the 3.8 GW/average in 2012.
In 2013 and 2012, we met 100% of ONS’s demands (National Operator of the Electric System).
+13%
+73%
Natural Gas Supply and Demand Higher demand for Natural Gas due to increase in thermoelectric demand
Non-thermoelectric
Thermoelectric
Fertilizers*
* Other internal uses in Petrobras
9 9
PROCOP 2013 Operating Costs Optimization Program
PRODESIN 2013 Divestment Program
PROEF 2013 Program to Increase Operational Efficiency
Optimization of operational activities
generated greater productivity levels and
reduced unit costs above expectations
Gain of +63 kbpd in production, with +21
kbpd in UO-BC and +42 kbpd in UO-RIO,
due to the higher level of operational
efficiency.
UO-BC: +7.5 p.p.
UO-RIO: +2.5 p.p.
+68%
2013 Real
6.6
2013 Target
3.9
+115%
2013
7.3
2012
3.4
+2,5 p.p.
With
PROEF
92.4
Without
PROEF
89.8
Results of Structuring Programs in 2013 PROCOP, PRODESIN and PROEF
Actual Transactions: US$ 7.3 billion
Cash contribution: R$ 8.5 billion
Avoided Costs: R$ 6.6 billion
Operational Efficiency (%)
+7.5 p.p.
With
PROEF
75.4
Without
PROEF
67.9
Assets
Financial
Restructuring*
2013*
8.5
8.2
0.3
2012*
6.4
0.6 5.8
+34%
* Petrobras and BR financial assets.
Operational Effriciency (%)
The gains exceeded targets and were obtained
through energy integration, workforce productivity,
maritime transportation and inventories.
R$ billion
R$ billion
US$ billion
Conclusion of 21 divestments since Oct/2012,
totalling US$ 10.7 billion, with US$ 3.4 billion in
2012 and US$ 7.3 billion in 2013.
10 10
Investments totaled R$ 104.4 billion, 24% above 2012, including Libra’s signing fee (R$ 6 billion).
R$
Bill
ion
Annual Investment
+24%
2013
104.4
2012
84.1
29%
6% 5%
57% Gas & Energy
Corporate
Biofuels
Distribution
International
Downstream
E&P
1.1% 1.1%
0.3%
Investment by Segment
Physical and financial monitoring of 158 individualized projects, which represent 73% of investments (S-Curves):
average physical realization of 91% and financial realization of 101%.
2013 Investments: R$ 104.4 Billion
11 11
2013 Results Increase of 6% in Operating Income and 11% in Net Income
Operating Income increase in 2013 due to, mainly, readjustments in the price of oil products and asset sales (PRODESIN). The extension of hedge
accounting since May/2013 contributed to an increase of 11% in the year’s net income.
23.6 +11%
+6% 34.4
21.2
32.4
R$ billion
2012 2013
2013 x 2012 Results Highlights
Higher oil products prices (mainly diesel and gasoline since 2H12 and throughout
2013);
Higher throughput in our refineries, reducing imported oil products share in the
sales mix;
Asset sales gains of PRODESIN – Divestment Program
Lower dry and sub-commercial wells expenses;
Extension of hedge accounting since May/2013;
Lower crude oil exports due to lower production levels, as well as higher domestic
crude oil share in throughput;
Persistence of domestic oil products price differentials relative to international
prices due to the currency devaluation;
Lower finance income due to the sales of government bonds (NTN-B) and
readjustment of judicial deposits in 2012; and
Higher finance expense due to higher debt.
Operating Income
Net Income
12 12
2013 Results EBITDA of R$ 63.0 Billion in 2013, 18% higher than 2012
In 2013, EBITDA was 18% higher than that of 2012 due to, mainly, adjustments of oil products price, asset sales of PRODESIN and lower dry and
sub-commercial wells expenses.
63.0
21.2
34.4
53.4 +18%
+11% 23.6
+6% 32.4
2012 2013
2013 x 2012 EBITDA
Higher oil products prices (mainly diesel and gasoline since 2H12 and
throughout 2013);
Higher throughput in our refineries, reducing imported oil products share in the
sales mix;
Asset sales gains of PRODESIN – Program of Divestitures
Lower dry and sub-commercial wells expenses;
Lower crude oil exports due to lower production levels, as well as higher
domestic crude oil share in throughput;
Persistence of domestic oil products price differentials relative to international
prices due to the currency devaluation
R$ billion
Operating Income
Net Income
EBITDA
13 13
2013 Net Income: Without Structuring Programs Structuring Programs: positive outcome of R$ 9.7 Billion in Net Income
PROCOP (R$ 4.3 Billion), PRODESIN (R$ 3.3 Billion) and PROEF (R$ 2.1 Billion) increased Net Income by 41%.
Divestment Program Operating Costs
Optimization Program
Program to Increase
Operational Efficiency
Of UO-BC and UO-RIO
R$ Billion
Structuring Programs Gains
are equivalent of exports results of
+293 kbpd of crude oil
Structuring Programs +63 kbpd
+100 kbpd
+130 kbpd
2013 Net Income Without
Structuring Programs
13.9
PROEF
R$ -9.7 billion (-41%)
PRODESIN
3.3
PROCOP
23.6
2013 Net Income
2.1
4.3
14 14
Cash in 2013: Structuring Programs Structuring Programs : R$ 14.7 billion more in cash
Positive impact on cash: Structuring programs PRODESIN (R$ 8.9 billion), INFRALOG (R$ 0.8 billion), PRC-Poço (R$ 0.7 billion) and Procop (R$
4.3 billion) enabled a 47% higher cash position.
Avoided CAPEX was not considered in PRC-SUB in 2013
*Sales Value + Avoided CAPEX. **Gain with Income Tax discounted
R$ Billion
Cash Position 2013
46.3
0.8
PRODESIN*
8.9
4.3
PRC Poço
R$ +14.7 billion (+47%)
Cash Position
without Structuring
Programs
PROCOP**
31.6
INFRALOG
0.7
Divestment Program Integrated Management
of Logistcs Projects
Program to Reduce
Well Costs
Operating Costs
Optimization Program
15 15
R$ Billion 12/31/12 12/31/13
Short-term Debt 15.3 18.8
Long-term Debt 181.0 249.0
Total Debt 196.3 267.8
(-) Cash and Cash Equivalents 3 48.5 46.3
= Net Debt 147.8 221.6
US$ Billion
Net Debt 72.3 94.6
2.77
2.322.57
3.05
3.52
31% 31%34% 36%
39%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1,5
2,5
3,5
4,5
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
Net Debt /Adjusted EBITDA Net Debt / Net Capitalization2 1
Debt Ratios
Net Debt/EBITDA reached 3.52 in 2013 (2.77 in 2012), due to an increase in indebtedness as a result of new borrowings and the effect of the
Real devaluation against the Dollar on net debt. Leverage was 39%.
1) Refers to the adjusted EBITDA which excludes equity income and impairment.
2) Net Debt / (Net Debt + Shareholder’s Equity)
3) Includes tradable securities maturing in more than 90 days
16 16
Targets for 2014 Higher oil and oil products production, operational efficiency and cost optimization will drive 2014 results
PROCOP – 2014 Target (R$ billion) Investments (R$ billion)
Oil Products Output (kbpd)
850 908
+1%
2014
2,148
480
760
2013
2,124
491
783
Diesel
Gasoline
Others
+11% +68%
2014
7.3
2013
Real
6.6
2103
Target
3.9
Oil Production (kbpd)
-9%
2014
94.6
2013
104.4 57%
E&P Brasil 64%
E&P Brasil
UO-BC +5.6 p.p.
2014
81.0
2013
75.4
2014 2013
1,931
UO-RIO +0.7 p.p.
2014
93.1
2013
92.4
PROEF
(Operational Efficiency %)
Máximo
Meta
Mínimo
7.5% +/- 1p.p.
+7%
17
The End