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Presentation on Yara's Capital Markets Day, December 4, 2012, held by Head of Supply and Trade Alvin Rosvoll
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Alvin Rosvoll, Head of Supply and Trade
Supply and Trade focus
1
Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
Biggest industrial buyer of
natural gas in Europe
Supply & Trade - Global optimization
25
RoW
100
CanadaEurope
185
10%
Ammonia
20
25%
NPK
11
30%
Urea
40
Yara share
Third single biggest buyer of
P&K globally
Gas consumption, MMBtu 2011 raw material purchases (mt)
Global trade (mt)Significant market
share on trade
7.07.5
5.0
1.0
1.8
Phosphate, rockPotash, MOP
YaraIndiaChina
Annual trade volumes (mt)
Upstream
Industrial
Downstream
S&T
2
Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
Cheaper feedstock
Improved efficiency
Lower emissions
Improved flexibility
Converting Brunsbüttel feedstock to gas
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
USD/MMBtu
201220112010
European spot priceBrunsbüttel
3
Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
Reduced exposure to oil and European gas
Yara’s feed-stock contract structure EuropeYara’s geographic energy exposure
-30 %-20 % -20 % -20 %
-10 %
55 %65 %
80 %90 %
70 %
25 %15 %
2006 2009 2010 2012 2013
Non gas*
NAT
GAS
NON
GAS
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
2006 2007 2008 2009 2012
Europe ROW
4
Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Q1 '06 Q4 '06 Q3 '07 Q2 '08 Q1 '09 Q4 '09 Q3 '10 Q2 '11 Q1 '12 Q4 '12
€/MWh
Quarter-Ahead: 21.1€/MWh Day-Ahead: 19.1€/MWh
Profitable spot strategy on natural
gas in Europe
5
Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
Neutral impact of ETS phase III introduction
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
1 56
t CO2/ t NH3
Number of ammonia plants
Emissions from European ammonia plants
CO2 generated (feed,fuel,steam,electr) Benchmark
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1 109
kg N2O/t HNO3
Number of nitric acid plants
N2O emission from European nitric acid plants
benchmark data Benchmark
6
Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
Yara is long on ammonia but short in Europe
Europe
Australia
Middle East / AfricaAmericas
5.1
4.9
Use
6.1
Available
Use
2.1
Available
1.9
Use
1.1
Available
1.5
Use
0.3
Available
0.8
Use
0.7
Available
Asia
• Yara-operated ammonia fleet
unrivalled giving scale and
flexibility
• Operate 15-18 ships
• Total shipping capacity of ~260
kilotons
Upgrade
External sales
Yara production
Marketing agreement
7
Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
Degree of vertical integration in
phosphate and potash
0.5
1.4
1.0
Use
1.9
Source
1.9
0.9
OtherNPK plantOwn productionExternal sourcing
Phosphate rock supply and use (mt)
0.8
1.1
Use
1.9
Source
1.9
Potash supply and use (mt)
8
Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
NPK business heavily impacted in
2008/09
Decided to intensify search for P & K
projects:
– Hedging
– Finder’s fee
Not pursuing fully developed and fully
priced mines
Control of phosphate rock sourcing
especially important due to quality
and productivity aspects
Phosphate and potash strategy
redefined in 2009
NPKNitratesUrea
90%
97%
63%
Capacity utilization 2009
9
Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December
Operations of existing mine in Finland
has brought important competence to
Yara in the field of mining
Currently working on four projects,
important decisions regarding all four
expected during 2013
Considered unlikely that all four will
materialize
No commitment from Yara at this
stage to execute any of the projects
Yara mining established to create more focus
on mining activities
Dallol
Siilinjärvi