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Alvin Rosvoll, Head of Supply and Trade Supply and Trade focus

CMD 2012: Supply and Trade Focus (Alvin Rosvoll)

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Presentation on Yara's Capital Markets Day, December 4, 2012, held by Head of Supply and Trade Alvin Rosvoll

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Page 1: CMD 2012: Supply and Trade Focus (Alvin Rosvoll)

Alvin Rosvoll, Head of Supply and Trade

Supply and Trade focus

Page 2: CMD 2012: Supply and Trade Focus (Alvin Rosvoll)

1

Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December

Biggest industrial buyer of

natural gas in Europe

Supply & Trade - Global optimization

25

RoW

100

CanadaEurope

185

10%

Ammonia

20

25%

NPK

11

30%

Urea

40

Yara share

Third single biggest buyer of

P&K globally

Gas consumption, MMBtu 2011 raw material purchases (mt)

Global trade (mt)Significant market

share on trade

7.07.5

5.0

1.0

1.8

Phosphate, rockPotash, MOP

YaraIndiaChina

Annual trade volumes (mt)

Upstream

Industrial

Downstream

S&T

Page 3: CMD 2012: Supply and Trade Focus (Alvin Rosvoll)

2

Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December

Cheaper feedstock

Improved efficiency

Lower emissions

Improved flexibility

Converting Brunsbüttel feedstock to gas

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

USD/MMBtu

201220112010

European spot priceBrunsbüttel

Page 4: CMD 2012: Supply and Trade Focus (Alvin Rosvoll)

3

Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December

Reduced exposure to oil and European gas

Yara’s feed-stock contract structure EuropeYara’s geographic energy exposure

-30 %-20 % -20 % -20 %

-10 %

55 %65 %

80 %90 %

70 %

25 %15 %

2006 2009 2010 2012 2013

Non gas*

NAT

GAS

NON

GAS

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

2006 2007 2008 2009 2012

Europe ROW

Page 5: CMD 2012: Supply and Trade Focus (Alvin Rosvoll)

4

Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Q1 '06 Q4 '06 Q3 '07 Q2 '08 Q1 '09 Q4 '09 Q3 '10 Q2 '11 Q1 '12 Q4 '12

€/MWh

Quarter-Ahead: 21.1€/MWh Day-Ahead: 19.1€/MWh

Profitable spot strategy on natural

gas in Europe

Page 6: CMD 2012: Supply and Trade Focus (Alvin Rosvoll)

5

Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December

Neutral impact of ETS phase III introduction

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

1 56

t CO2/ t NH3

Number of ammonia plants

Emissions from European ammonia plants

CO2 generated (feed,fuel,steam,electr) Benchmark

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1 109

kg N2O/t HNO3

Number of nitric acid plants

N2O emission from European nitric acid plants

benchmark data Benchmark

Page 7: CMD 2012: Supply and Trade Focus (Alvin Rosvoll)

6

Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December

Yara is long on ammonia but short in Europe

Europe

Australia

Middle East / AfricaAmericas

5.1

4.9

Use

6.1

Available

Use

2.1

Available

1.9

Use

1.1

Available

1.5

Use

0.3

Available

0.8

Use

0.7

Available

Asia

• Yara-operated ammonia fleet

unrivalled giving scale and

flexibility

• Operate 15-18 ships

• Total shipping capacity of ~260

kilotons

Upgrade

External sales

Yara production

Marketing agreement

Page 8: CMD 2012: Supply and Trade Focus (Alvin Rosvoll)

7

Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December

Degree of vertical integration in

phosphate and potash

0.5

1.4

1.0

Use

1.9

Source

1.9

0.9

OtherNPK plantOwn productionExternal sourcing

Phosphate rock supply and use (mt)

0.8

1.1

Use

1.9

Source

1.9

Potash supply and use (mt)

Page 9: CMD 2012: Supply and Trade Focus (Alvin Rosvoll)

8

Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December

NPK business heavily impacted in

2008/09

Decided to intensify search for P & K

projects:

– Hedging

– Finder’s fee

Not pursuing fully developed and fully

priced mines

Control of phosphate rock sourcing

especially important due to quality

and productivity aspects

Phosphate and potash strategy

redefined in 2009

NPKNitratesUrea

90%

97%

63%

Capacity utilization 2009

Page 10: CMD 2012: Supply and Trade Focus (Alvin Rosvoll)

9

Capital Markets Day 2012 – 4 December

Operations of existing mine in Finland

has brought important competence to

Yara in the field of mining

Currently working on four projects,

important decisions regarding all four

expected during 2013

Considered unlikely that all four will

materialize

No commitment from Yara at this

stage to execute any of the projects

Yara mining established to create more focus

on mining activities

Dallol

Siilinjärvi