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PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER CONFERENCE CALL January 29, 2016
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and
Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are intended to be covered by the safe harbors created thereby. Words and
phrases such as “is anticipated,” “is estimated,” “is expected,” “is planned,” “is scheduled,” “is targeted,” “believes,” “intends,” “objectives,” “projects,”
“strategies” and similar expressions are used to identify such forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that a
statement is not forward-looking. Forward-looking statements relating to Phillips 66’s operations (including joint venture operations) are based on
management’s expectations, estimates and projections about the company, its interests and the energy industry in general on the date this
presentation was prepared. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that
are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking
statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements include
fluctuations in NGL, crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas prices, and refining, marketing and petrochemical margins; unexpected changes in
costs for constructing, modifying or operating our facilities; unexpected difficulties in manufacturing, refining or transporting our products; lack of, or
disruptions in, adequate and reliable transportation for our NGL, crude oil, natural gas and refined products; potential liability from litigation or for
remedial actions, including removal and reclamation obligations, under environmental regulations; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost
of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; and other economic, business, competitive and/or
regulatory factors affecting Phillips 66’s businesses generally as set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Phillips 66 is
under no obligation (and expressly disclaims any such obligation) to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new
information, future events or otherwise.
This presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures at the end of the
presentation materials or in the “Investors” section of our website.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
2
3
EXECUTING STRATEGY
4
OVERVIEW 4Q 2015
Adjusted Earnings $710 MM
Adjusted EPS $1.31
Operating cash flow excluding working capital $1.8 B
Capital expenditures and investments 1 $1.0 B
Shareholder distributions 2 $704 MM
DCP equity contribution $1.5 B
(2) Shareholder distributions include dividends and share repurchases
(1) Capital expenditures and investments exclude DCP equity contribution of $1.5 B
1,647
710
(49)(90)
(676)(117) (5)
3Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing
& Specialties
Corporate
& Other
4Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings
$MM
42 (117) 376 182 227
ADJUSTED EARNINGS 4Q 2015 VS. 3Q 2015
5
6
MIDSTREAM OVERVIEW 4Q 2015
Transportation Higher volumes
NGL Sweeny Fractionator One in production
PSXP Earnings contribution up 19%
DCP Midstream Low commodity prices
2015 Adjusted ROCE 5%
91
42
1
(34)
(16)
3Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
Transportation NGL DCP
Midstream
4Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
MIDSTREAM 4Q 2015 VS. 3Q 2015
78 (2) (34)
4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings
7
8
CHEMICALS OVERVIEW 4Q 2015
Olefins & Polyolefins Lower cash chain margins
Specialties, Aromatics & Styrenics Planned turnaround impacts
2015 Adjusted ROCE 19%
272
182
(80) (8) (2)
3Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
Olefins &
Polyolefins
Specialties,
Aromatics &
Styrenics
Other 4Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
CHEMICALS 4Q 2015 VS. 3Q 2015
9
4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings
181 (8) 9
10
REFINING OVERVIEW 4Q 2015
Realized margin $9.41/BBL
Market capture 74%
Crude utilization 94%
Clean product yield 85%
2015 Adjusted ROCE 19%
1,052
376
(96)
(138)
(251)
(191)
3Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
Atlantic
Basin /
Europe
Gulf Coast Central
Corridor
Western /
Pacific
4Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
REFINING 4Q 2015 VS. 3Q 2015
11
97 121 147 11
4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings
12.77
9.41
(2.13)
(2.19)
1.28
(0.32)
Market
3:2:1
Configuration Secondary
Products
Feedstock Other Realized
Margin
WORLDWIDE REFINING $/BBL
REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2015
12
Average Market Crude $43.31/BBL 94% Crude Capacity Utilization 74% Market Capture
13
MARKETING AND SPECIALTIES OVERVIEW 4Q 2015
Marketing Favorable global margins
Specialties Lower margins
2015 Adjusted ROCE 35%
344
227
(93)(24)
3Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
Marketing
& Other
Specialties 4Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
MARKETING AND SPECIALTIES 4Q 2015 VS. 3Q 2015
14
198 29
4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings
(112) (117)
(4) (1)
3Q 2015
Adjusted
Net Loss
Net Interest
Expense
Corporate
Overhead
& Other
4Q 2015
Adjusted
Net Loss
$MM
CORPORATE AND OTHER 4Q 2015 VS. 3Q 2015
15
16
OVERVIEW 2015
Adjusted Earnings $4.2 B
Adjusted EPS $7.67
Operating cash flow excluding working capital $5.9 B
Capital expenditures and investments 1 $4.3 B
Shareholder distributions 2 $2.7 B
Adjusted net debt-to-capital ratio 3 17%
Adjusted ROCE 14%
(2) Shareholder distributions include dividends and share repurchases
(3) Adjusted net debt-to-capital ratio excludes the impacts of PSXP
(1) Capital expenditures and investments exclude DCP equity contribution of $1.5 B
DCP equity contribution $1.5 B
3,782 4,193
(260)(257)
951 65
(88)
2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing
& Specialties
Corporate
& Other
2015
Adjusted
Earnings
2015 Adjusted Earnings
$MM
248 (481) 2,527 952 947
ADJUSTED EARNINGS 2015 VS. 2014
17
Adjusted EPS
$6.62
Adjusted EPS
$7.67
5.2
3.1
1.5
(4.3)
(1.5) 5.9
(0.2)(0.8)
(5.8)
(2.7)
December
2014 CashBalance*
CFO
(excludingworking
capital)
Working
Capital
PSXP Bond &
Equity Proceeds
Debt
Repayment
Capital
Expenditures& Investments
Shareholder
Distributions
December
2015 CashBalance*
$B
CASH FLOW 2015
18
* Includes cash and cash equivalents
DCP Equity Contribution
19
Global Olefins & Polyolefins utilization Mid-90%
Refining crude utilization Mid-90%
Depreciation and amortization $1.2 B
Effective income tax rate Mid-30%
Corporate & Other costs (after-tax) $120 MM - $125 MM
OUTLOOK
Refining turnaround expenses (pre-tax) ~$150 MM
2016
Refining turnaround expenses (pre-tax) $525 MM - $575 MM
Corporate & Other costs (after-tax) $480 MM - $500 MM
1Q 2016
PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER 2015 CONFERENCE CALL
Questions and Answers
PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER 2015 CONFERENCE CALL
Appendix
ESTIMATED SENSITIVITIES 2016
22 Sensitivities shown above are independent and are only valid within a limited price range
Midstream - DCP (net to Phillips 66)
10¢/Gal Increase in NGL price 25
$1/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price 20
$10/BBL Increase in WTI price 10
Chemicals - CPChem (net to Phillips 66)
1¢/Lb Increase in Chain Margin (Ethylene, Polyethylene, NAO) 35
Worldwide Refining
$1/BBL Increase in Gasoline Margin 230
$1/BBL Increase in Distillate Margin 200
$1/BBL Widening LLS / Maya Differential (LLS less Maya) 45
$1/BBL Widening WTI / WCS Differential (WTI less WCS) 40
$1/BBL Widening WTI / WTS Differential (WTI less WTS) 20
$1/BBL Widening LLS / Medium Sour Differential (LLS less Medium Sour) 15
$1/BBL Widening ANS / WCS Differential (ANS less WCS) 10
10¢/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price (10)
Impacts due to Actual Crude Feedstock Differing from Feedstock Assumed in Market Indicators:
Annual Net Income $MM
22.4 22.0
22.6
23.2
24.0 23.9
22.0 21.6
21.8
22.4
23.2 23.1
6.1
8.6 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9
6.1
8.6 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8
5.4 5.2 5.4 5.1 4.8 3.1
5.0 5.2 5.3 5.0 4.7 3.0
21%
28% 28%28%
27% 27%
22%
28%
26% 26%25% 25%
2013 2014 1Q
2015
2Q
2015
3Q
2015
4Q
2015
2013 2014 1Q
2015
2Q
2015
3Q
2015
4Q
2015
Equity $B Debt $B Cash & Cash Equivalents $B Debt-to-Capital
20%-30%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE 2013 – 2015
23
Consolidated PSX Excluding PSXP
12.11
7.18
(1.95)(1.07)
(1.96)
0.05
Market
3:2:1
Configuration Secondary
Products
Feedstock Other Realized
Margin
ATLANTIC BASIN / EUROPE $/BBL
REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2015
24
Market 3:2:1 – Dated Brent / Gasoline 83.7 RBOB NYH / Diesel 15ppm NYH
Brent $43.69/BBL 101% Crude Capacity Utilization 59% Market Capture
8.56 8.59
(1.42)
(2.74)
2.57
1.62
Market
3:2:1
Configuration Secondary
Products
Feedstock Other Realized
Margin
GULF COAST $/BBL
REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2015
25
Market 3:2:1 – LLS / Gasoline 85 CBOB / Diesel 61 8ppm
LLS $43.57/BBL 93% Crude Capacity Utilization 100% Market Capture
13.82 11.43
(1.49)
(2.68)
3.20
(1.42)
Market
3:2:1
Configuration Secondary
Products
Feedstock Other Realized
Margin
CENTRAL CORRIDOR $/BBL
REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2015
26
Market 3:2:1 – WTI / Gasoline Unl Sub Octane Group 3 / ULSD Group 3
WTI $42.10/BBL 93% Crude Capacity Utilization 83% Market Capture
21.03
12.51
(4.08)
(2.44)
1.77
(3.77)
Market
3:2:1
Configuration Secondary
Products
Feedstock Other Realized
Margin
WESTERN / PACIFIC $/BBL
REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2015
27
Market 3:2:1 – ANS Spot / Los Angeles CARBOB / Los Angeles No. 2 CARB
ANS $43.79/BBL 87% Crude Capacity Utilization 59% Market Capture
913
710
(55)
(88)
54
(97) (17)
4Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing
& Specialties
Corporate
& Other
4Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings
$MM
42 (117) 376 182 227
ADJUSTED EARNINGS 4Q 2015 VS. 4Q 2014
28
97
42
25
(57)
(23)
4Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Transportation NGL DCP
Midstream
4Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
MIDSTREAM 4Q 2015 VS. 4Q 2014
29
78 (2) (34)
4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings
270
182
(67)(18) (3)
4Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Olefins &
Polyolefins
Specialties,
Aromatics &
Styrenics
Other 4Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
CHEMICALS 4Q 2015 VS. 4Q 2014
30
181 (8) 9
4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings
322 376
(92)
155
(78)
69
4Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Atlantic
Basin /
Europe
Gulf
Coast
Central
Corridor
Western /
Pacific
4Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
REFINING 4Q 2015 VS. 4Q 2014
31
97 121 147 11
4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings
324
227
(58)
(39)
4Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Marketing
& Other
Specialties 4Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
MARKETING AND SPECIALTIES 4Q 2015 VS. 4Q 2014
32
198 29
4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings
(100)(117)
(3)
(14)
4Q 2014
Adjusted
Net Loss
Net Interest
Expense
Corporate
Overhead
& Other
4Q 2015
Adjusted
Net Loss
$MM
CORPORATE AND OTHER 4Q 2015 VS. 4Q 2014
33
4.8
3.1
(0.3)
(1.0)
1.8
(2.5)
(0.7)
(1.5)
September 30
CashBalance*
CFO
(excludingworking
capital)
Working
Capital
Capital
Expenditures&
Investments
Shareholder
Distributions
December 31
CashBalance*
$B
CASH FLOW 4Q 2015
34
* Includes cash and cash equivalents
DCP Equity Contribution
35
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q
Phillips 66
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 4,227$ 650$ 1,578$ 4,762$ 1,147$
Adjustments:
Asset dispositions (265) - (18) (494) (385)
Pension settlement expense 49 3 46 - -
Impairments - - - 131 131
Impairments by equity affiliates 256 108 22 69 -
Certain tax impacts (84) (84) - - -
Pending claims and settlements (23) - 19 (10) (10)
Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments 33 33 - 30 30
Discontinued Operations - - - (706) -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 4,193$ 710$ 1,647$ 3,782$ 913$
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 Per Share of Common Stock (dollars) 7.73$ 1.20$ 2.90$ 8.33$ 2.05$
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 Per Share of Common Stock (dollars) 7.67$ 1.31$ 3.02$ 6.62$ 1.63$
Millions of Dollars
Except as Indicated
2015 2014
36
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q
Midstream
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 13$ (77)$ 101$ 507$ 96$
Adjustments:
Pension settlement expense 6 - 6 - -
Impairments by equity affiliates 232 104 2 - -
Asset dispositions (18) - (18) - -
Certain tax impacts 15 15 - - -
Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments - - - 1 1
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 248$ 42$ 91$ 508$ 97$
Chemicals
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 962$ 212$ 252$ 1,137$ 267$
Adjustments:
Impairments by equity affiliates 24 4 20 69 -
Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments - - - 3 3
Certain tax impacts (34) (34) - - -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 952$ 182$ 272$ 1,209$ 270$
Millions of Dollars
Except as Indicated
2015 2014
37
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q
Refining
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 2,555$ 410$ 1,003$ 1,771$ 517$
Adjustments:
Asset dispositions (5) - - (369) (369)
Impairments - - - 131 131
Certain tax impacts (69) (69) - - -
Pension settlement expense 32 2 30 - -
Pending claims and settlements (19) - 19 17 17
Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments 33 33 - 26 26
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 2,527$ 376$ 1,052$ 1,576$ 322$
Marketing & Specialties
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 1,187$ 231$ 338$ 1,034$ 367$
Adjustments:
Asset dispositions (242) - - (125) (16)
Pension settlement expense 7 1 6 - -
Pending claims and settlements - - - (27) (27)
Certain tax impacts (5) (5) - - -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 947$ 227$ 344$ 882$ 324$
Corporate and Other
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 (490)$ (126)$ (116)$ (393)$ (100)$
Adjustments:
Certain tax impacts 9 9 - - -
Pension settlement expense 4 - 4 - -
Pending claims and settlements (4) - - - -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 (481)$ (117)$ (112)$ (393)$ (100)$
Millions of Dollars
Except as Indicated
2015 2014
38
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q
Midstream - Transportation
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 288$ 81$ 77$ 233$ 53$
Adjustments:
Certain tax impacts (3) (3) - - -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 285$ 78$ 77$ 233$ 53$
Midstream - NGL
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 49$ 1$ 26$ 139$ 55$
Adjustments:
Pension settlement expense 6 - 6 - -
Certain tax impacts (3) (3) - - -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 52$ (2)$ 32$ 139$ 55$
Midstream - DCP Midstream
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 (324)$ (159)$ (2)$ 135$ (12)$
Adjustments:
Impairments by equity affiliates 232 104 2 - -
Asset dispositions (18) - (18) - -
Certain tax impacts 21 21 - - -
Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments - - - 1 1
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 (89)$ (34)$ (18)$ 136$ (11)$
Millions of Dollars
Except as Indicated
2015 2014
39
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q
Refining - Atlantic Basin / Europe
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 569$ 186$ 180$ 198$ 57$
Adjustments:
Pension settlement expense 9 1 8 - -
Pending claims and settlements (33) - 5 1 1
Impariments - - - 131 131
Certain tax impacts (90) (90) - - -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 455$ 97$ 193$ 330$ 189$
Refining - Gulf Coast
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 551$ 128$ 269$ 252$ (11)$
Adjustments:
Pension settlement expense 11 1 10 - -
Pending claims and settlements 6 - 6 3 3
Certain tax impacts 18 18 - - -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 586$ 147$ 285$ 255$ (8)$
Millions of Dollars
Except as Indicated
2015 2014
40
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q
Refining - Central Corridor
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 857$ 86$ 360$ 967$ 182$
Adjustments:
Pension settlement expense 7 - 7 - -
Pending claims and settlements 5 - 5 2 2
Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments 33 33 - 15 15
Certain tax impacts 2 2 - - -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 904$ 121$ 372$ 984$ 199$
Refining - Western / Pacific
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 578$ 10$ 194$ 354$ 289$
Adjustments:
Pension settlement expense 5 - 5 - -
Pending claims and settlements 3 - 3 11 11
Asset dispositions (5) - - (369) (369)
Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments - - - 11 11
Certain tax impacts 1 1 - - -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 582$ 11$ 202$ 7$ (58)$
Millions of Dollars
Except as Indicated
2015 2014
41
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q
Marketing & Specialties - Marketing & Other
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 1,004$ 199$ 285$ 836$ 299$
Adjustments:
Asset dispositions (242) - - (125) (16)
Pension settlement expense 7 1 6 - -
Pending claims and settlements - - - (27) (27)
Certain tax impacts (2) (2) - - -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 767$ 198$ 291$ 684$ 256$
Marketing & Specialties - Specialties
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 183$ 32$ 53$ 198$ 68$
Adjustments:
Certain tax impacts (3) (3) - - -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 180$ 29$ 53$ 198$ 68$
Millions of Dollars
Except as Indicated
20142015
2015 YTD Phillips 66 Midstream Chemicals RefiningMarketing
& Specialties
Numerator ($MM)
Net Income 4,280 74 962 2,555 1,187
After-tax interest expense 201 - - - -
GAAP ROCE earnings 4,481 74 962 2,555 1,187
Special Items (34) 235 (10) (28) (240)
Adjusted ROCE earnings 4,447 309 952 2,527 947
Denominator ($MM)
GAAP average capital employed* 31,749 6,793 4,921 13,582 2,735
2015 Adjusted ROCE 14% 5% 19% 19% 35%
2015 GAAP ROCE 14% 1% 20% 19% 43%
42 * Total equity plus total debt
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
43
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
Phillips 66
Consolidated
Phillips 66
Partners
Adjusted
Phillips 66
Total Debt 8,887$ 1,091$ 7,796$
Total Equity 23,938$ 809$ 23,129$
Debt-to-Capital Ratio 27% 25%
Total Cash 3,074$ 48$ 3,026$
Net-Debt-to-Capital Ratio 20% 17%
2015
4Q
Millions of Dollars
44
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
Growth Sustaining Total
Capital expenditures and investments
Midstream * 2,801$ 1,656$ 4,457$
Chemicals -$ -$ -$
Refining 201$ 868$ 1,069$
Marketing & Specialties 66$ 56$ 122$
Corporate and Other 10$ 106$ 116$
Total 3,078$ 2,686$ 5,764$
* Midstream Sustaining expenditures includes DCP equity contribution of $1.5 B
Millions of Dollars
2015
45
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
Millions of Dollars
2015
4Q
Effective Tax Rates
Income before taxes 832$
Special items 226$
Adjusted income before taxes 1,058$
Provision for taxes 166$
Special items 166$
Adjusted provision for taxes 332$
GAAP effective tax rate 20%
Adjusted effective tax rate 31%