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www.law.ed.ac.uk
Changing society and globalisation– new threats and opportunities?
Dr Liz [email protected]
Enlighten…
Overview
• Changes in UK society – 1950s onwards…
• Global changes – and those still to come?
• Globalisation – meaning, cause, effects?
• Threats
• Opportunities
• Concluding remarks
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Technological shifts
• Internet coverage: 16% in 2004, 82% in 2014 • Smart phone ownership:27% adults in 2011; 51% in 2013; now 61%• Use of online shopping and banking
Source : OFCOM
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• “Global North” became mostly urban around 1950
• Developing regions still mostly rural
• Majority will live in urban areas by 2030;
70% by 2050
Source: UN, 2013
Urbanisation
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Effect of global population changes
Pressure on resources Environmental
exploitation
Geo-political consequences
Global inequality
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Share of global wealth of the top 1% and bottom 99% respectively
Source: Credit Suisse (Oxfam 2014)
• Moore’s law
• Internet access: EU 75%, globally 39%
• Mobile money
• Darknet
• Virtual currencies
Technological changes
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Looking forward…
• Population growth • Aging • Resourceimplications
Geopolitics?
Source: UN, 2013
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• Technology
• 3-d printers
• Drones
• Quantum computers
• Deepweb
• Worldwide currency? Or diversification?
Looking forward…
Globalisation
• international integration of markets in goods, services, capital
• integration of economies, industries, markets, cultures, policy-making
• increased labour mobility
• cultural homogenisation
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Origin of threats
• “criminogenic asymmetries” (N. Passas)
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Asymmetries:inequalities and
uneven factors in relation to the
economy, politics, culture, and legal
regulation
Criminogenicin terms of the effect on
demand,motivation and
responses
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Types of global crime threats
• Human trafficking, migrant smuggling
• Illegal drugs trade
• Cybercrime
• Firearms trafficking
• Illegal trade of environmental
resources
• Production & sale of counterfeit
goods
• LINKED TO geopolitical instability -- national security?
Opportunities
• For who?
• Criminal actors
• Cybercrime
• Trafficking
• Legitimate state/private actors
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Cybercrime
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• Golden rule of computer security• A ‘new’ type of crime -- or same
crime(s), new means?• “Hacktivism”• State-sponsored• Jurisdictional issues
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• …of people and of goods, such as drugs, environmental resources, firearms and counterfeit products
• Source and market countries
Trafficking
Concluding remarks
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“A new breed of organisedcrime groups is emerging inEurope, capable of operatingin multiple countries and criminal sectors. These groupsare no longer defined by their nationality or specialisation in one area of crime but by an ability to operate on an internationalbasis, with a business-like focus on maximising profit and minimising risk.They are the epitome of our new globalised society.”
-- Rob Wainwright, 2013.