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Avoiding Nonprofit Disasters Through Decision-Making Science
Dr. Gleb TsipurskyCo-Founder and President, Intentional Insights
Professor, The Ohio State University
The Columbus FoundationMarch 21, 2017
What Do You See?
Pessimism and Optimism Bias
Presentation Overview
• Upcoming major decisions for your organizations• Avoiding disastrous decisions
– Presentation– Q&A - your organization’s upcoming decisions
• Avoiding disasters after a decision has been made– Presentation – Group discussion– Q&A - decisions already made by your organizations
• Final Q&A• Tip sheets – free for participants
Choose An Upcoming Major Decision
Decisions Under Consideration
•
Elephant and Rider
How Does Our Mind Work?System 1Elephant - Autopilot
• Subconscious• Automatic• Habits
• Fast• Intuitive• Emotional
System 2Rider - Intentional
• Conscious• Mindful• Attention
• Slow• Reasoning • Logical
Retrain the Mind
Knowledge is Power:Beware Cognitive Biases
Overconfidence Effect
Status Quo Bias
Halo and Horns Effects
Dealing With Cognitive Biases
Put a
NUMBER
on it!
Web App: Making the Right Call on Significant Decisions
• Free online tool to “put numbers on it” http://bit.ly/2mrMZi6
• Example: Hiring decision
Q&A on Decision-Making Science
Preventing Disasters Once Decision Made
Premortem vs. Postmortem
Premortem: Steps 1 and 2Step 1Gather stakeholders in meeting• Ensure a mix of people:
– expertise on topic – authority to make decisions
Step 2Explain the exercise• Describe all steps
Premortem: Step 3Ask all to imagine a future where the project definitely failed.• Ask each participant to
write possible reasons for failure ANONYMOUSLY– Encourage reasons that
might be seen as rude or unpopular
• Facilitator gathers written comments and reads them aloud
Premortem: Step 4
Discuss all reasons that were brought up• Pay particular attention to those that seem
rude, unpopular, and/or dangerous to careers• Estimate the probability of each reason for
failure ANONYMOUSLY– Option 1: percentage probabilities
• Ex: 80% likely– Option 2: use categories
• highly likely• somewhat likely• unlikely• very unlikely
Premortem: Step 5 and 6Step 5Decide on several failures that are most relevant• Brainstorm ways of preventing these failures from occurring. Step 6Project leader revises project plan based on the feedback, and, if needed, repeats the exercise.
Premortem Q&A
Premortem: Group ActivityStep 1: Gather stakeholders in meeting• Ensure a mix of people with expertise on topic and with authority to make decisionsStep 2: Explain the exercise to everyone - describe all steps.Step 3: Ask all to imagine that they are in a future where the project definitely failed• Ask each participant to write possible reasons for failure ANONYMOUSLY
– Encourage reasons that might be seen as rude or unpopular• Facilitator gathers written comments and reads aloud.Step 4: Discuss all reasons that were brought up• Pay particular attention to those that seem rude, unpopular, and/or dangerous to
careers• Estimate the probability of each reason for failure ANONYMOUSLY
– Option 1: percentage probabilities (Ex: 80% likely)– Option 2: use categories (highly likely, somewhat likely, unlikely, very unlikely)
Step 5: Decide on several failures that are most relevant• Brainstorm ways of preventing these failures from occurring.Step 6: Project leader revises project plan based on the feedback, and, if needed, repeats the exercise.
Invest in Avoiding Disasters
Thank You!Dr. Gleb [email protected]
Website glebtsipursky.comTwitter twitter.com/Gleb_Tsipursky LinkedIn linkedin.com/in/dr-gleb-tsipursky-89ab4b23/
Email to get two free tip sheets:• Avoiding Disastrous Decisions• Avoiding Disaster Once You Make a Decision
PowerPoint of this presentation slideshare.net/intentionalinsights