Project risk management focus on risk identification techniques

PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT

FOCUS ON RISK IDENTIFICATION TECHNIQUES

Author: Marco De Santis, PMP, 2014

3

The project risk management is the systematic process of identifying, analyzing and responding to project risks in order to increase the probability and/or the impact of positive events and to decrease the probability and/or the impact of negative events in accordance with the constraints.

Author: Marco De Santis, PMP, 2014 Based on "Project Management Plan and process map" and "Project Risk Management - Methodology and Application", published on Slideshare and LinkedIn, 2014

Manifesto


Focus on Risk Identification techniques

Please, Cl ick ON hyperl ink for the deta ils

5

Assumptions analysis

Brainstorming

Nominal group

Delphi technique

Interviews

Route Cause Analysis

Information gathering

techniques

Checklist analysis

Pareto Diagram

SWOT analysis Expert

judgement

Diagramming techniques

Cause and effect diagram (Ishikawa)

System or process flow charts

Influence diagrams


Documentation reviews

6


Control lists

1

Project Checklist

Project objectives, constraints, assumptions, WBS, contracts

Analysis and homogenize step

3

2

Project Team

Risk Owner

Based on "Corso di preparazione all'esame PMP", TI HR Services - Eureka Service, 2013

Checklist analysis


7

List of Project Risks

2

1

Project Team

Facilitator

Brainstorming

Author: Marco De Santis, PMP, 2014 Based on "Corso di preparazione all'esame PMP", TI HR Services - Eureka Service, 2013


8

Project Team

Identify the participants

Evaluation step

Project Team

List of grouped risks

List of risks

Unique list of results

List of risks List of risks

Project Team

Results approval step

6

5

1

3

2

4

7

8


Risk Owner

Risk Owner

Risk Owner

Risk Owner

Nominal group



9

Risk Owner

List of Project

Risks

Unique list of risks and opinions

Experts identification (anonymous list)

Risk Owner

2 2 2 Risks and opinion

Risks and opinion

Risks and opinion

3 1

Review and update

Updated unique list of risks and opinions

4

5 Review and

update Review and

update

5 5

Risk Owner 7

Consensus

Yes

No

8

6

? ? ? ?

? ? ? ?

Delphi technique



10

2

1

Project Team, experts and other Project Manager

Risk Owner


List of Project

Risks

Basis of risk interviews

Objectives, WBS, historical data

Experts identifications

Analysis of answers

Risk Owner

4 4

3

5

Interviews



11

Problem idetification

Action

Problem analysis

Analysis

Project standard compliance

Check

Control

Qualità

Sicurezza

Efficienza

Effectiveness

Quality Security

Why

Why

Why

Why Why

Based on Lean Leadership, 7 step to 5-why, Paulsen & Paulsen LLC, 2010

Route cause analysis



12


Team di progetto

Bad effect for the project

Effetto 1

Effetto 2

Effetto 3 List of Project Risks and

generation causes

1 2

3

4

Cause and effect Diagram

oR Ishikawa diagram "fishbone"



13

Product requirements

Prototype development

Prototype Internal approval

Technical specifications

Start of internal test

phase

Customer approval

User Acceptance

Test

Prototype Approval

Production

no

yes

no

no

yes yes

system or process Flow charts



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Examples: • If R1 doesn't occur, R4 cannot occur. • If R9 is influenced by R7: if R7 occurs, the probability of occurrence of R9 increases from 10% to 30%. • If R9 is positively influenced by R5 and R2, too: if R5 or R2 occurs the impact of the risk of R9 decreases in measure of 50%. • R3 is influenced only by the jointly occurrence of R6 and R8: in this case, R3 double both its probability of occurrence and

its impact on the project.

R1

R4

R7

R5

R2

R9

R3

R8

R6

Occurrence

Impact

Probability of occurrence

Probability of occurrence and impact

OR

AND

Influence Diagrams



15



Meeting

3

1

Project Team Risk Owner

Strengths Weakness

Opportunities Threats

2 2 2 SWOT Analysis

Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities, Threats



16

Pareto Diagram

0,0%10,0%20,0%30,0%40,0%

Rischio1

Rischio2

Rischio3

Rischio4

Rischio5

Impact on cost

0,0%10,0%20,0%30,0%

Rischio1

Rischio2

Rischio3

Rischio4

Rischio5

Impact on schedule

0,0%10,0%20,0%30,0%40,0%

Rischio1

Rischio2

Rischio3

Rischio4

Rischio5

Impact on quality



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Expert judgment

Author: Marco De Santis, PMP, 2014 Based on Project Management Body Of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide®), Project Management Institute, Fifth Edition, 2012 , p. 327

Experts

2 3

Basis of risk interviews

Objectives, WBS, historical data

Experts identification


Evaluations Evaluations Evaluations

Project Manager and Risk Owner

1


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Based on Project Management Body Of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide®), Project Management Institute, Fifth Edition, 2012, p. 324-325 Author: Marco De Santis, PMP, 2014

Assumptions analysis and

documentation reviews

Project Manager, Risk Owner and Project Team 1 1 1

2



Attachments

FOCUS on 6 RISK MANAGEMENT processes PMBOK Guide®, Fifth Edition

20 Author: Marco De Santis, PMP, 2014

The process of defining the rules for the development of the risk management plan, which includes: methodology, responsibility, definition and management of reserves and changes

The process of identifying project risks, accurately describing and giving a first response hypothesis

Risks are classified by importance, in order to define a priority based on a Risk Factor (RF)

The overall effect of the project risks (Expected Monetary Value, EMV) is measured numerically. The contingency reserve, which is the pre-reserve economic response to the risks , will be defined

Here are being planned necessary responses for facing the threats in order to reduce the probability and / or the impact of threats and / or to amplify those opportunities

The process of implementing the responses, of updating the status of the risks (identified, secondary, residual and new) and evaluating the effectiveness of the risk management.

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1. Plan Risk Management

2. Identify Risks

3. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis

4. Perform Quantitative Risk

Analysis

5. Plan Risk Responses

6. Control Risks

Based on "Corso di preparazione all'esame PMP", TI HR Services - Eureka Service, 2013

Threats Risk Strategy OpportunityAvoid Uncertaincy removal Exploit

TransferReallocation of responsibilities Enhance

MitigateExposition level

modification ShareAccept Current management Accept

Leadership & Management

Project risk management focus on risk identification techniques