The Next Era: a new Nordic Societal Vision for Well-Being

The Next Era: a new Nordic Societal Vision for Well-Being

Winners and Losers of Globalisation Vision Europe Summit Turin, Nov 15th 2017

Aleksi Neuvonen Demos Helsinki

[email protected] @leksis

mailto:[email protected]

’The period from the mid-nineteenth century to 1970 was one in which the working class benefited from the growth in productivity. Incomes became more equal. This is the economic performance that many have come to regard as normal.'

'Most discussions in the West focus on how technological evolution in the West affects jobs in the West. This frame is too narrow for the twenty-first century: we must investigate the effect of technological change on work everywhere. For the past three centuries, the global economy has been sufficiently integrated that new technology in one place affects work in others.’

GIN LANE

BACK TO GREAT VS TECHNO-OPTIMISM

Have we lost the hope?

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NextEra.global memorandums

GROWTH - WORK - DEMOCRACY - WELLBEING

THE PROMISE OF THE 20TH CENTURY

COMPANIES

PEOPLESTATEWELFARE

WO

RKGRO

WTH

WAG

ES

LABOU

R

TAXESSOCIAL SECURITY

TAXES

INVES

TMEN

TS

(edu

catio

n, in

fra

)

COMPANIES

STATE PEOPLE

Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global


U N I T E D K I N G D O M 1% max.

F I N L A N D -0,5–1%



F I N L A N D -0,5–1%

D E N M A R K -1,5–1,5%



F I N L A N D -0,5–1%

D E N M A R K -1,5–1,5%

G E R M A N Y <2%



F I N L A N D -0,5–1%

D E N M A R K -1,5–1,5%

G E R M A N Y <2%



N E T H E R L A N D S -0,5–1%

F I N L A N D -0,5–1%

D E N M A R K -1,5–1,5%

G E R M A N Y <2%



C Z E C H R E P U B L I C -0,5–1,5%

N E T H E R L A N D S -0,5–1%

F I N L A N D -0,5–1%

D E N M A R K -1,5–1,5%

G E R M A N Y <2%



C Z E C H R E P U B L I C -0,5–1,5%

J A P A N -1,5–1,5%N E T H E R L A N D S

-0,5–1%

F I N L A N D -0,5–1%

D E N M A R K -1,5–1,5%

U S A

4–5%G E R M A N Y <2%



C Z E C H R E P U B L I C -0,5–1,5%

J A P A N -1,5–1,5%N E T H E R L A N D S

-0,5–1%

1. Ageing population


2. Technological deflation


3. Declining regions

3. Declining regions

4. Need to limit use of the most polluting resources

4. Need to limit use of the most polluting resources



3. Declining industrial regions

4. Need to limit most polluting

resources

THE ERA OF TECHNOLOGICAL UNEMPLOYMENT?

THE ERA OF TECHNOLOGICAL UNEMPLOYMENT?

World Economic Forum

5m JOBS lost across 15 developed nations by 2020

137mWORKERS across Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam at risk from automization

International Labor Organisation

Globalisation: Does democracy work in

the middle of structural changes in the economy?



Ecological sustainability: Earth has become a small planet for a very big human population

How do we solve the burning issues of scarce common natural resources?



Ecological sustainability: Earth has become a small planet for a very big human population

How do we solve the burning issues of scarce common natural resources?

Technology: Our democracies are tuned

for the world of the 20th century. Are we even asking the right questions?

'The need for educated workers led to the expansion of state provision of education. The increasing number of educated people prompted the invention of technologies that took advantage of education8. Those technologies led to further demand for education. At the same time, the public provision of infrastructure — roads and airports, for instance — was crucial for the development of industries involving cars and aircraft. Public support for research in medicine, agriculture and technologies with military applications, such as electronics and aircraft, underlaid many advances. The welfare state helped to spread the benefits of this economic development across the population.’

Robert C. Allen: ”Lessons from history for the future of work”, Nature 18 October 2017

Industrial revolution gave rise to most of the structures that shape our current

societies.

• SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEMS • WELFARE STATE • PRIMARY EDUCATION

SYSTEM • URBAN PLANNING • TRADE UNIONS • REPRESENTATIVE

DEMOCRACY

1790 18401830182018101800

2005 20552045203520252015

1790 18401830182018101800

2005 20552045203520252015

Can we speed up the transformation towards the next

era of wellbeing?

2017BASIC INCOME EXPERIMENT

20?? “NEXT ERA

SOCIAL CONTRACT”

[EXPERIMENTS + FRAMEWORKS + POLICIES NEEDED]

What if…Basic income covers a large share of your living costs?

Healthcare turns preventive and cheap due to technology?

Sharing platforms enable cash-free lifestyles?

Our pensions are collaborative and mutual?

We go through a university level training seven times in our lifetime?

Peer learning takes off massively?

Access to artificial intelligences becomes a citizen right?

The Next Era Societal Vision for Well-Being

The VES network foresight workshop, Helsinki June 21-22. 2017

What is particularly valuable in the (future) Nordic model? (according to VES network participants)"Social justice, environnemental values and human rights”

”The principles of inclusiveness and equality”

”Combining economic growth with a relatively equal distribution of net income”

”Low levels of hierarchies”

”GETTING TO DENMARK”

”GETTING TO DENMARK”

VISION FOR NEXT ERA OF WELLBEING?

It should (in a sober manner) accept planetary boundaries, broad international collaboration and technological development as core beliefs.

Would focus policies on • inclusive circular economy, • progressive of democracy and (both public and private) institutions, and • improving level of skills and capabilities.

Could make citizen to feel that • New forms of work and income provide opportunities for them, • They are being heard and are motivated to dialogue and collaboration w/ others • They can and should learn and grow as humans throughout their lives.

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Leadership & Management

The Next Era: a new Nordic Societal Vision for Well-Being