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© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
A.D.2000
A.D.1000
A.D.1
1000B.C.
2000B.C.
3000B.C.
4000B.C.
5000B.C.
6000B.C.
7000B.C.
1+ million years
8
7
6
5
2
1
4
3
OldStoneAge New Stone Age
BronzeAge
IronAge
MiddleAges
ModernAge
Black Death —The Plague
9
10
11
12
A.D.3000
A.D.4000
A.D.5000
18001900
1950
1975
2000
2100
Future
Billions
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).
World Population Growth Through History
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Ninth
Eighth
Seventh
Sixth
Fifth
Fourth
Third
Second
First Billion
Number of years to add each billion (year)
All of Human History (1800)
130 (1930)
30 (1960)
15 (1975)
12 (1987)
12 (1999)
14 (2013)
14 (2027)
21 (2048)
Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
World Population Growth, in Billions
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Millions
Annual Increase in World Population
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2005
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Billions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Less Developed Regions
More Developed Regions
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Growth in More, Less Developed Countries
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Trends in Population Growth WorldwidePopulation Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods
80
8783
7976 76 75
72
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Net population added per year Annual population growth rate
Mill
ions
Per
cent
incr
ease
per
yea
r
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Notes on Trends in Population Growth Worldwide
• This figure illustrates the lag between changes in the rate of growth and the net increase in population per year.
• Over the period 1985-1995, the population growth rate declined (a reflection of declining fertility), yet millions of people were added to the world’s population (which peaked around 1985, when 87 million people were added each year). • From 2000 on, the growth rate will continue to decline. Between 2015 and 2020, we will still be adding 72 million people each year. Why? Because the generation of women now having their children is very large as the result of high fertility in their mothers’ and grandmothers’ generations.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
World Population Clock
Natural Increase per World
More Developed Countries
Less Developed Countries
Less Developed Countries (less China)
Year 80,794,218 1,234,907 79,559,311 71,906,587
Day 221,354 3,383 217,971 197,004
Minute 154 2 151 137
2005
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.
Projected Population Change, by Country
Percent Population Change, 2005-2050
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.
The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1950-1955
1955-1960
1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
Birth rate Death rate
Natural Increase
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
• Birth rates and death rates are declining around the world. Overall economic development, public health programs, and improvements in food production and distribution, water, and sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. And women now have fewer children than they did in the 1950s. • Nevertheless, if death rates are lower than birth rates, populations will still grow. • Also, it is possible for absolute numbers of births to increase even when birth rates decline.
Notes on Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
1.17
1.12
0.94
0.84
1.22
1.24
1.24
1.23
1.23
1.20
Belarus
Bulgaria
Republic of Moldova
Republic of Korea
Slovenia
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Ukraine
China, Hong Kong Special AdministrativeRegion
China, Macao Special Administrative Region
10 Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide
Average number of children per woman, 2000-2005
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Number of Women 15 to 49Billions
0.62
0.86
1.32
1.76
1.982.06
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Women of Childbearing Age
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
• The number of women of childbearing age more than doubled between 1950 and 1990: from 620 million to over 1.3 billion.
• Their numbers are expected to reach over 2 billion by the middle of this century, according to the UN’s medium projections.• The growing population of women in their childbearing years and their male partners will contribute to future world population growth, even if levels of childbearing continue to decline.
Notes on Women of Childbearing Age
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Worldwide
0.6
0.9
1.82.0 2.0
1.3
0
1
2
3
1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015 2030-2035 2045-2050
Bill
ion
s
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Ch
ildre
n p
er
wo
ma
n
Women 15 to 49 Average number of children per woman
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
• The number of women in their childbearing years has increased since the 1950s and is projected to continue to increase to 2050.
• The number of children per woman has declined since the 1950s and is projected to continue to decline.• Even though women have on average fewer children than their mothers, the absolute number of babies being born continues to increase because of the increases in the total number of women of childbearing age.
Notes on Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Decline or Growth, 2005-2050Percent
8
10
13
-23
-11
-6
Russia (1.4)
Italy (1.3)
Trinidad & Tobago (1.6)
Armenia (1.3)
China (1.6)
Country (average number of children per woman)
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.
Population in Countries With Low Fertility
Thailand (1.7)
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
• All countries shown here have below “replacement level” childbearing—the level required for population to ultimately stop growing or declining. Yet, half will continue to grow and half are projected to decline by 2050.
• This disparity is due to the effects of population momentum. In populations with a young age structure, even if fertility declines sharply, the numbers of children will continue to increase for a generation as the cohorts of young people pass through their reproductive years. Consequently, populations will continue to grow for decades even if fertility is instantly reduced to replacement level. On the other hand, some low-fertility countries are subject to negative population momentum. Their populations have aged enough to result in relatively small cohorts under age 30, and therefore even if fertility were to rise to replacement level, population size would decline for sometime.
Notes on Population in Countries With Low Fertility
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction
Average number of children per woman
5.75.25.4
6.46.4
8.5
5.3
3.3
6.2
3.1
2.4 2.1
4.3
2.5
Egypt India Indonesia Iran Pakistan Turkey Yemen
1970-1975 2000-2005
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Patterns of Fertility Decline
Average number of children per woman
0
2
4
6
8
10
1950–1955 1960–1965 1970–1975 1980–1985 1990–1995 2000–2005
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
Uganda
Kenya
Colombia
South Korea
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Reaching Replacement Fertility
Average number of children per woman
5.6
7.0
5.4
6.4
5.7
7.3
1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0
Azerbaijan Chile Iran Mauritius Thailand Tunisia
1960-1965 2000-2005
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years
49
6772
76
6565
7780 82
75
Africa Asia Latin Americaand the
Caribbean
More DevelopedRegions
World
2000-2005 2045-2050
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
• In 2045-2050, infants born around the world can expect to live an average of 75 years — up ten years from today.
• Africa will experience the largest increase in life expectancy: from 49 years to 65 years. • Life expectancy varies widely by region. In more developed countries, life expectancy averages 76 years, compared with only 49 years in Africa.
Notes on Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Urban PopulationPercent
29
15 17
53
47
37 37
76
55
42
74
85
54
61
82
World Africa Asia Latin Americaand the
Caribbean
MoreDeveloped
Regions
1950 2000 2030
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.
Trends in Urbanization, by Region
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
• Currently, world regions differ greatly in their levels of urbanization. In more developed regions and in Latin America and the Caribbean, over 70 percent of the population is urban, whereas in Africa and Asia, under 40 percent of the population is urban. By 2030, however, the urban proportion of these two regions will exceed 50 percent. • By 2030, roughly 60 percent of the world’s population will be living in urban areas.
Notes on Trends in Urbanization, by Region
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Millions
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.
1950 2000 2015
Largest Cities, Worldwide
811 12
17 18
34
2123
36
London Tokyo New York
Sao Paulo
MexicoCity
Tokyo Delhi Mumbai(Bombay)
Tokyo
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
• The largest cities in the world are growing rapidly, and they are shifting from the more developed regions to the less developed regions. In 1950 the three largest cities were in more developed countries; by 2000, only Tokyo remained in the top three.
• In 1950, New York was the largest city in the world, with a population of about 12 million. By 2015, the largest city worldwide is projected to be Tokyo, with triple this population size: 36 million.
Notes on Largest Cities, Worldwide
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Urbanization in Central AmericaPopulation Living in Urban AreasPercent
39 3936
29
47 48
6462
49 49
60 60
Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panama
1970 2010
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Notes on Urbanization in Central America
• Central American countries are urbanizing rapidly, at a pace similar to that of their South American neighbors 20 years earlier. Sixty percent or more of the population in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Panama is projected to be urban by 2010; the projection for Central America as a whole is 71 percent.• South America has nearly the highest rate of urbanization of any world region, projected to achieve 84 percent by 2010 (virtually tied with Northern Europe).
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions
300 100 100 300300 200 100 0 100 200 300
Less Developed Regions
More Developed Regions
Male Female Male Female
80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-90-4
Age
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
Age Distribution of the World’s Population
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
• Sex and age distributions show that less developed countries have significantly younger populations than more developed countries.
• Almost one-third of the population in less developed countries is under age 15. In contrast, less than one-fifth of the population in more developed countries is under 15.• Today there are more than 2 billion young people below age 20 in less developed regions—the age cohort that will soon become the world’s newest group of parents.
• Young age structures in the less developed countries are due mainly to higher levels of childbearing in recent decades.
Notes on Age Distribution of the World’s Population
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Trends in Aging, by World RegionPopulation Ages 65 and OlderPercent
7
3
6 6
14
11
4
10 10
21
World Africa Asia Latin Americaand the
Caribbean
More DevelopedRegions
2000 2025
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Notes on Trends in Aging, by World Region
• By 2025, over 20 percent of the population in more developed regions will be ages 65 and older.
• By 2025, one-tenth of the world’s population will be over age 65.
• Asia will see the proportion of its elderly population almost double, from about 6 percent in 2000 to 10 percent in 2025. In absolute terms, this represents a stark increase in just 25 years: from about 216 million to about 480 million older people.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
635450
50 4637
All Ages Ages 60+ Ages 80+
Women Men
Women and Aging
Projected World Population, by Sex, at Specified Age Groups, 2025Percent
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects:The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Notes on Women and Aging
• The figure above depicts what demographers refer to as the feminization of aging. Although women make up half of world population, by the end of the next quarter century, they will account for more than half (54 percent) of people ages 60 and older, and 63 percent of very old people (80 and older).
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Literacy Rates, by Sex, 2000-2004Percent
77
53
89
73
55
87
70
9186
77
World Sub-SaharanAfrica
Latin Americaand the
Caribbean
Asia Arab States
Female Male
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics: accessed online at www.uis.unesco.org/TEMPLATE/html/Exceltables/education/Literacy_Regional_April2006.xls on May 21, 2006.
Adult Literacy, by Region
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
• Nearly all men and women in more developed regions can read and write. • However, literacy rates are lower in the less developed regions. Women’s literacy rates in particular vary significantly by region: from 53 percent in sub-Saharan Africa, to 73 percent in Asia, to 89 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean.• Overall, more men than women are literate. This is especially striking in the Arab states, where more than three-fourths of men but about half of all women are literate.
Notes on Adult Literacy, by Region
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Africa Asia Latin America and the Caribbean
Note: People 15 to 64 are considered to be workers; people 14 and younger and those over 65 are considered to be dependents.Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Ratio of Workers to Dependents, by Region
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
0.1
0.2
0.3
1.2
1.5
1.6
2.0
2.3
4.4
5.9
Mali
Cambodia
Bangladesh
Bolivia
Mexico
China
Jordan
U.S.
Greece
Cuba
1997-2004*Physicians per 1,000 people
Availability of Doctors, Selected Countries
* Data are for the most recent year available for each country.Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2006.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Notes on Availability of Doctors, Selected Countries
• Population growth can affect a country’s capacity to address the health needs of its people through trained personnel and accessible health facilities.
• Access to health services varies greatly from country to country. In Greece, for example, there are 4.4 doctors for every 1,000 people. • This is over 20 times higher than in Cambodia, which has only 0.2 doctors for every 1,000 people.