Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2017

1Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing

February 2017: Focus on Key Brands


A Spring Step

Our February report takes up to the start of

spring, and the good news is that a) there

isn’t any bad news, and b) there is even

some good news.

That said, as we track our Economic

Recovery Index in Q1 2017 there are some

signs of weakening sentiment about the

economy, though personal consumer

sentiment has even picked up a little.

More worrying, the level of ‘happiness’ and

‘enjoyment’ is at its lowest since we started

tracking back in April 2009: perhaps the

psychological impact of the recession is felt

at a lag?


A Special Focus This Month

Every month we take a look at our PlanR

and ERI findings through a different prism

beyond standard demographics.

Sometimes we look at entire sectors

(groceries last month, banks and mobile in

previous months) but this time we looked at

leading brands across the eight sectors that

we track every month on PlanR.

We hope you find it interesting – some of the

results are rally quite surprising!


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over six years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009

to February 2017.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 15th to 22nd February 2017 inclusive.

See how bad it was at one of the lowest points

seven years ago:http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amrach-recovery-indicator-february-2010

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, February 2017

Our Economic Recovery Index has been flat for about 18 months


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Feb-10 39 34 25 2 0 22.7

Feb-11 58 27 14 1 0 18.0

Feb-12 55 25 18 2 0 16.9

Feb-13 42 32 22 4 0 21.8

Feb-14 21 39 33 7 0 31.7

Feb-15 16 33 37 13 1 37.4

Feb-16 12 28 35 21 4 43.4

Jan-17 16 28 32 20 3 41.9

Feb-17 14 27 33 23 3 43.1

Our ERI is still below its level of a year ago


ERI by Customers of Selected Brands

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement x Customers of Selected Brands:

VHI customers are most optimistic about the economic outlook

TOTAL AIB Vodafone TescoElectric

IrelandTopaz Axa Boots VHI

The economic situation in

Ireland is getting worse13% 15% 13% 12% 16% 15% 13% 11% 8%

The economic situation is

bad but has stabilized25% 26% 26% 25% 25% 26% 25% 24% 27%


bad but showing a few

signs of improvement

30% 28% 31% 30% 33% 32% 38% 27% 31%


getting better and

showing clear signs of

improvement

21% 20% 23% 24% 19% 19% 18% 25% 26%


good and almost fully

recovered from the

recession

3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 1% 3% 4%

Consumer Impact


Recession, Resilience & Recovery

We started calling our Index the ‘Recovery

Index’ back in April 2009

Over these past seven years we have tracked

the highs and lows (and very lows) in terms of

the mood of the nation and the impact on

consumer spending, borrowing and saving

intentions.

We’ve seen remarkable resilience on the part

of the Irish people when it comes to ‘getting

on’ with their lives, despite macro-economic

uncertainties.

In this section we look at some of the key

indicators when it comes to consumer

spending and saving intentions.


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the worst

of the recession

in 12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to make

it through the

recession

I am optimistic in

spite of the

current economic

situation

Right now it seems

like the recession is

affecting other

people more than it

is affecting me

Feb-10 42 47 56 53

Feb-11 24 37 44 45

Feb-12 26 41 44 49

Feb-13 27 36 43 42

Feb-14 38 41 52 47

Feb-15 42 42 53 45

Feb-16 41 44 55 46

Jan-17 31 44 49 40

Feb-17 38 47 53 43

Despite a flat ERI, other economic indicators have bounced back


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more relaxed

about spending

money than I was a

few months ago

I am saving a lot

more than before

because of the

recession

My main financial

priority is to pay off

my debts as quickly

as possible

I would be happy

to borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Feb-10 18 26 62 29

Feb-11 14 27 61 24

Feb-12 17 29 57 26

Feb-13 16 26 54 24

Feb-14 22 25 58 24

Feb-15 27 28 53 26

Feb-16 30 26 56 26

Jan-17 28 28 55 33

Feb-17 37 33 55 40

Our spending intention indicator has picked up strongly along with others


Spending Intentions by Selected Brands

Agreement with statement: ‘I am more relaxed about spending money than I was

a few months ago’ x Customers of Selected Brands:

Boots customers are more likely to agree strongly they are ‘relaxed about spending’



Strongly Agree 10% 10% 9% 9% 7% 8% 11% 14% 12%

Slightly Agree 26% 26% 27% 26% 26% 33% 28% 28% 31%

Neither/Nor 25% 26% 24% 29% 25% 21% 23% 24% 26%

Slightly Disagree 18% 16% 20% 18% 18% 21% 20% 18% 13%

Strongly Disagree 16% 17% 17% 14% 20% 13% 13% 10% 14%


Debt Repayment Intentions by Selected Brands

Agreement with statement: ‘My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as

quickly as possible’ x Customers of Selected Brands:

Topaz customers are more likely to agree strongly debt repayment is a priority



Strongly Agree 29% 25% 31% 31% 29% 33% 28% 32% 29%

Slightly Agree 26% 25% 29% 21% 24% 29% 24% 28% 32%

Neither/Nor 19% 22% 16% 20% 18% 16% 17% 18% 15%

Slightly Disagree 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 8% 12% 4% 5%

Strongly Disagree 5% 7% 5% 5% 5% 4% 7% 4% 4%

Mood of the Nation


The Real Mood of the Nation

When we started measuring and reporting the

Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be

more than just another ‘confidence index’.

We therefore set out to measure the full

spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish

consumers – positive as well as negative ones

– in order to provide a unique insight into the

real ‘mood’ of the nation.

Lately some interesting but rather strange

things have emerged: our levels of stress

and anger have fallen to their lowest levels

ever, but our level of happiness is trending

downwards as well, despite the recovery.

The following charts show the trends to

February 2017.


The Mood of the Nation – I

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2017


20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

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Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation – II


% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2017


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

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Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


The Mood of the Nation – III


% saying Yes: February 2017



Happiness 42% 41% 47% 44% 44% 43% 46% 47% 45%

Enjoyment 41% 41% 40% 36% 43% 43% 47% 42% 46%

Stress 30% 31% 29% 27% 33% 31% 30% 33% 33%

Worry 25% 24% 22% 23% 27% 25% 23% 26% 30%

Anxiety 22% 23% 19% 20% 24% 20% 22% 26% 23%

Physical Pain 20% 17% 18% 18% 21% 19% 20% 15% 22%

Boredom 19% 20% 16% 20% 19% 17% 13% 21% 18%

Sadness 18% 18% 15% 18% 20% 17% 14% 16% 18%

Anger 11% 9% 8% 9% 14% 9% 13% 12% 9%

Loneliness 13% 13% 11% 12% 16% 12% 7% 14% 13%

Fear 6% 8% 4% 4% 7% 4% 8% 7% 8%

Vodafone & Boots customers are happiest, AIB customers not so much…

Amárach Outlook


Get Planning

We’ll keep tracking its progress into 2017 –

and we’ll keep you posted about Ireland’s

consumer needs.

We hope you find this edition of the

Economic Recovery Index helpful and

please do get in contact if you want to

discuss how it can be applied to your brand

planning requirements in 2017 and beyond.

With Easter around the corner there’s lots

to be doing as 2017 gathers momentum.

For more on the ERI (including over 7 years worth of data) see:http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm


PlanR Database

We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic Recovery Index.

We also track dozens of data series relating to customer experience, spending

levels, and switching intentions also as part of the same survey

You can view the full list (as well as

a free dashboard) here:

Contact us for subscription details

and information about special offers

and join more than two dozen other

organisations using their own

customised planning dashboard.

http://getplanr.com/planr-data

Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

s. slideshare.net/amarach/

Marketing

Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2017