PRedictor 2014

Dentsu PR Yomu-Yomu Trend Prediction Guide

Dentsu Public Relations Inc.

What kind of year will 2014 be for the Japanese market?

In this guide, making the most of Dentsu PR’s know-how and research

resources, we present our predictions for 2014, divided into “Trends”, “Topics”

and “People”.

So which trends, topics and people will come to the fore in 2014?

However you choose to use this information, whether as advice for planning or

as a fuel for discussion, we hope it proves helpful.

* “Dentsu PR Yomu-Yomu” represents the individual views of the editors and not

of the company as a whole.

Dentsu PR’s keyword for Japan in 2014

“Awakening”

2014 will see the first rise in the consumption tax in Japan for 17 years.

There are certainly very few among the public who welcome the impact this

change will have on their lives.

However, it doesn’t all have to spell doom and gloom.

If you can set your own standards and prioritize, you can still ensure there’s

enough money to invest in the things that you value.

With our lifestyles and values becoming increasingly diversified and fragmented,

we live in an age of abundant choices, not only for what we consume but for how

we live.

In this situation, it’s important to establish a “stable self”.

We are paying less attention to the norms of society around us,

and instead living more according to our own standards.

The mild and modest Japanese people are gradually growing bolder.

While this development is yet to fully surface, the blood is pumping a little faster

through our veins as many businesses and analysts expect the improved

consumer sentiment

Trends: The mood of the era and the social climate

Tax shock leads to spending changes

In April 2014, the consumption tax rate will finally rise, from 5% to 8%. This

change is expected to be preceded by a last-minute jump in demand, and

immediately followed by a slump in consumer spending. According to economic

journalist Hiroko Ogiwara, “this consumption tax rise will only serve to further

polarize people’s lifestyles, making Japan more like America.” Certain

individuals and companies who have benefited from policies like “Abenomics”

will continue to invest more and grow wealthy, while luxury goods will still sell

well whatever the price tag. On the other hand, for many Japanese consumers

the tax rise will likely come as a shock. With salaries generally set to stay the

same, price competition for food and other essential daily items will intensify,

making bargain information and saving tips even more sought after. As such, we

will move into a time of “unreal-feeling economic recovery.”

In this kind of situation, people will need to carefully prioritize the things in which

to invest their limited time and money, in what has been dubbed “value

differentiation” (Professor Hiroyoshi Usui, Faculty of Humanities, Department of

Journalism, Sophia University). Rather than gravitating towards widely popular

big hits, it should become more usual for people to set great store on their own

“likes”, leading to a smattering of niche small hits. This tax rise looks set to

trigger an acceleration of “self-standardized consumption”, with personal

standards coming before the values of others.

Japan opens up to the world

As Japan looks forward to hosting a number of major international events in the

coming years, 2014 will be a year in which the country steps up its globalization

efforts. We should start to see increased moves, both on an official level and

among the general public, to improve the environment for foreign visitors to

Japan, such as providing more foreign language guidance, free Wi-fi services,

and greater credit card and ATM compatibility. For a start, the arrival/departure

slots for international flights at Haneda Airport are being expanded. To handle

the expected boost in numbers for both tourists and business people from

abroad, various foreign hotel chains are set to expand operations here. Much

attention is on the area around Shinbashi and Toranomon in central Tokyo,

where “Toranomon Hills” will open this summer. This new complex is designed to

enhance links between Japan and the rest of the world, boasting top-class

conference and hotel facilities among other things.

GOLDen generation

While much of the country suffers from the impact of the consumption tax rise,

one group who should remain largely unaffected is middle-aged women around

50 years old, who grew up in the 1970s and ‘80s “bubble generation”. The

magazine GOLD, named after the club which was popular during the bubble era

in early 1990s, has singled out this group for a spending resurgence. These

women have the power to take up some of the slack of their children, who

belong to the so-called “Yutori generation” (referring to young people in their

mid-20s and younger educated under the more relaxed Japanese education

system who tend to lack ambition and desire). Meanwhile, among women in their

30s and 40s, a new class of “loose career” women (neither fully career-focused

nor career-less) is emerging, who are spending less than the “bubble generation”

but are enjoying an unprecedented level of information diffusion through blogs

and social media.

Topics: Illuminating the Age

Energy generation at home

“2014 marks the beginning of an energy self-sufficient age for general

households.” So says energy journalist Masaya Ishida, of the website “Smart

Japan”, which provides expert advice on issues concerning energy saving,

storage and generation. The ratio of current energy usage in Japan stands at

around 80% for fossil fuels, 10% for nuclear and 10% for renewable energy.

However, as renewable energy usage constitutes a key element of the

government’s industrial support policy, it is expected to expand. Since the fixed

price purchase system for renewable energy started in July 2012, many

companies and organizations have launched new business through, for instance,

establishing their own power stations. In 2014, this trend is expected to spread

to general consumers, with more energy-generation measures aimed at

reducing lighting and heating costs at home. In an age of ever-rising electricity

bills, households that fail to make use of renewable energy will continue to be at

a disadvantage. Looking forward, energy-generation capability should prove an

invaluable ally to families hoping to balance the household expenses.

Dinner table diversity

These days, around half of the households in Japan are “single” or “couple-only”.

Reflecting this, eating habits are becoming increasingly fragmented, making it

harder for proper hit products to arise. Despite this trend though, according to

Norikatsu Suga, Editor in Chief of The Japan Food Service News, one product to

look out for this year is the T-bone steak. Boned beef cuts can now be found on

Japanese dinner tables for the first time in over 10 years following the relaxation

of import restriction from some countries in February 2013, prompting a mixture

of nostalgia among the older generation and curiosity among the young. In the

world of coffee, attention is on a growing “third wave” category of “single origin”

brands that are identified not only by the country but by the exact plantation

where the beans were grown. In this way, it would seem that coffee is becoming

viewed in much the same way as wine. The popularity of pancakes also looks

set to continue into 2014, with chain stores expanding into more regional cities.

Wearable gadgets

From smartphones to tablets, and now fablets, digital devices are evolving at a

rapid pace. In 2014, we can expect to hear a lot more about “wearable

technology”. There has been plenty of buzz about this area in the tech industry

since Google introduced its “Google Glass”, and this year should see a further

development towards more general commercialization. Much is expected of

Logbar’s “Ring”, a finger device that can interact with other devices. And “curved

displays” on gadgets such as smartphones are another exciting new innovation

to look out for. Through their changing roles and forms, digital devices will likely

become an even more integral part of our lives in 2014.

Mini video mania

With the evolution of social media, sharing of images and other contents has

come to be an everyday activity. Now, in 2014, the stage is set for “video sharing”

to become the norm. There are already quite a few short video creation and

sharing apps available, such as “Vine”, “Viddy” and “MixBit” that allow users to

easily film and edit their work in a range of ways, and it seems their use will

further spread in the coming year, not only among businesses for their

promotional activities but also between general consumers. Video editing is no

longer a skill limited to the pros!

LGBT progression

While there are plenty of cross-dressing celebrities on our TV screens, Japan

still lags behind many other developed countries when it comes to legal rights for

its LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender) population. As Japan embraces

globalization and the need to be more culturally and racially flexible, we could

well see some serious moves here to advocate for diversity and inclusion for

LGBT citizens. For instance, there should be more attention on same-sex

couples across various industries, such as insurance, travel and real estate

because of their generally high disposable income. Japan in 2014 seems ready

to get with the times and cast off its conservative stance towards LGBT people.

People: 7 Sources of Key Personalities in 2014

90s girls to battle it out

Actresses born in the latter half of the 1980s, who broke onto the scene in their

late teens before establishing themselves in their early twenties, are starting to

shift roles from fresh young girls to mature young women. Now is the time for a

new generation of young actresses who were born in the 1990s. It should be

fascinating to see how this latest talent battle unfolds.

Changing of the show host guard

A few of Japan’s best-known and longest-running daytime shows are reaching

an end over the coming months, and their distinguished veteran hosts are also in

the process of stepping aside. This year, a procession of challengers, from boy

band members to popular comedians, will step up to try to become the new

“King of daytime TV”. Who will emerge as the next housewives’ favorite?!

Supporting roles moving into the spotlight

2013 was a year of new smash hit TV dramas, such as “Hanzawa Naoki” and

“Ama-chan”. Now, in 2014, a number of supporting actors and actresses who

received much attention and plaudits will be enjoying more screen time as their

parts are expanded. What they have in common is experience acting in the

theater and ability to play a range of roles. In other words, they are helping to

raise the quality of production. Expect to see these performers pop up in other

TV shows and commercials, while their hit dramas remain fresh in people’s

minds.

Winter sport fever!

The popularity of winter sports looks set to rocket in 2014. Look out for the

emergence of new star Japanese athletes in the Nordic skiing, ski jump and ice

hockey events. There are sure to be some memorable comments and phrases

uttered by athletes, which will end up being on everybody’s lips!

YouTubers to make mainstream media debut

It’s becoming increasingly harder to take your eyes off YouTube. From cover

versions of popular songs, to English conversation instruction, and cooking

lessons, more and more Youtubers are finding their way to fame through

uploading original videos that enjoy millions of views. In 2014, we should start to

see some of them migrate from the web page to mainstream media.

Bad boys and girls to make a comeback!?

There are signs that this year could mark a return for a few celebrities who were

previously driven out of the entertainment industry due to their shocking

behavior and even sent to jail. These former beloved big names will no doubt

take the stage with a less polished image, and it should be interesting to see if

they can clean up their act second time around.

Playboys becoming elderly gents

A number of prominent Japanese actors, who have made their name playing

roguish, womanizing characters in the movies and on TV since the 1970s, are

entering pensioner-hood. Precisely because of their colorful history, both on and

off screen, the image of these graying dandies is unlikely to suffer as they

mellow and mature with age, much like a fine wine.

What next for information supply chain?

“Aggregator media” the key in 2013

If companies want to communicate their stories, they must first have a firm

understanding of the information supply chain. In this information-saturated age,

without a thorough advance plan of when, how and via which media to distribute

your information, it is unlikely to reach much of an audience.

In 2013, from the viewpoint of people, items, and media, which consolidate

masses of information, two main information channels have been at the forefront.

One of these follows the more established news flow, of stories delivered

digitally via media outlets to portal sites, before spreading to offline, traditional

mainstream media. The other, more recent, kind of information flow that has

emerged in 2013 Japan is via so-called “matome” (or aggregator) sites and

social media networks. Information shared through social media is then spread

further by being sorted on these aggregator sites. These distribution routes,

interacting with each other, will maximize your information flow. Offline

word-of-mouth these days doesn’t easily come about if one of them is lacking.

“On-screen” and “off-screen” the new key words

Information supply chains are likely to evolve even further in 2014, not only in

terms of media, but also heavily influenced by changes to devices. The

boundaries between smartphones, tablets, PCs and TVs will become

increasingly blurred. Already, fixed-price content providers such as “Hulu” and

“UULA” allow users to view on-screen content on multiple devices, and this

process will only get quicker with the advancement of “smart TV” combining the

functions of TV and Internet. In terms of PR strategy, 2014 may well be the year

that many PR practitioners realize the importance of getting a grip on information

distribution networks like this crossover on-screen media.

The next stage of information distribution channels will likely operate through an

integrated combination of on-screen media and off-screen media, including

newspapers, magazines, events and POPs. Likewise, PR companies with a full

line of services, centered around digital media while possessing specialist units

for TV, magazines, newspapers and events, should be the big winners.

(Kazuo Kusuda, Head of Digital Communication Division, Dentsu PR)

For more information regarding “Dentsu PR Yomu-Yomu”:

Dentsu Public Relations Inc.

Tel: 03-5565-8433