12th may,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice

Newsletter

Volume 5, Issue I

12th May, 2015


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Global Rice Quotes

May 12th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 380-390 ↔

Vietnam 5% broken 350-360 ↔

India 5% broken 370-380 ↔

Pakistan 5% broken 390-400 ↔

Myanmar 5% broken 415-425 ↔

Cambodia 5% broken 430-440 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 480-490 ↔

Uruguay 5% broken 565-575 ↔

Argentina 5% broken 555-565 ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 350-360 ↔

Vietnam 25% broken 330-340 ↔

Pakistan 25% broken 345-355 ↔

Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 ↔

India 25% broken 345-355 ↔

U.S. 15% broken 470-480 ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 370-380 ↓


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Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 390-400 ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 360-370 ↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 875-885 ↔

Vietnam Jasmine 490-500 ↑

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 815-825 ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super 315-325 ↔

Vietnam 100% broken 305-315 ↓

Pakistan 100% broken stxd 290-300 ↔

Cambodia A1 Super 350-360 ↔

India 100% broken stxd 270-280 ↔

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔

U.S. pet food 370-380 ↔

Brazil half grain NQ ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com


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Brazil Rice Stocks Continue to Decline in

April 2015

May 11, 2015

Brazil rice stocks continued to decline for the second consecutive month in April 2015,

according to the country's national grain supplying agency Conab. Brazil rice stocks stood at

around 134,126 tons in April 2015, slightly down from around 134,255 tons in March 2015 and

down about 76% from around 559,033 tons in April 2014.

According to Conab, rice stocks with the Selling Option Contract of Agricultural Products

(OPCAO) have remained at last month's level of around 81,570 tons and down about 76% from

around 346,128 tons in April 2014. Rice stocks with Federal Government Acquisition (AGF)

also remained at last month's level of 52,213 tons and down about 75% from around 211,520


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tons in April 2014. Rice stocks with farmers (Agricultural Familiar) stood at around 343 tons in

April 2015, down 27% from around 472 tons in March 2015 and down about 75% from around

1,385 tons in April 2014.

In April, Brazil’s National Grains Supply Company (Conab) has forecasted the country's 2014-

15 paddy rice production at around 12.397 million tons (around 8.43 million tons, basis milled),

up about 2% from around 12.121 million tons (around 8.24 million tons, basis milled) in 2013-

14, and up 2% from its March forecast of around 12.151 million tons.

Government of Bangladesh Imposes 10%

Duty on Rice Imports

May 11, 2015


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The government of Bangladesh has imposed a duty of 10% on rice imports, with effect from

May 10, 2015, local quoted the Finance Minister.The Minister was quoted as saying that the

decision was aimed at ensuring fair price to rice farmers during the ongoing Boro crop season

(January - May). Earlier, the Agriculture Minister said the decision was taken to restrict surging

rice imports. Bangladesh's private rice traders have imported around 1.36 million tons of rice

from July 1, 2014 - May 7, 2015, compared to only 374,560 tons imported in the whole of 2013-

14, according to the Food Ministry.

The Ministry data shows that the government has so far not imported any rice in this fiscal

despite setting a target to import about 200,000 tons of rice in the fiscal year 2014-15 to

replenish falling stocks in the country.Last month, local sources reported that the National Board

of Revenue (NBR) of Bangladesh would impose duty on rice imports for a short period as the

existing customs laws allow for imposition of regulatory duty on rice imports only during the

harvesting and procurement period. However, it is not known the time frame for the imposition

of current duty.

The government's procurement of Boro rice from May 1, 2015 is likely to provide a cushion to

farmers against falling prices. The government is planning to procure one million tons of 2015

Boro paddy and 100,000 tons of Boro rice between May 1, 2015 and August 31, 2015. It has

fixed the procurement price for paddy at Tk 22 per kilogram (around $283 per ton) and that for

rice at Tk 32 per kilogram (around $412 per ton).USDA estimates Bangladesh’s MY 2014-15

(July 2014 – June 2015) milled rice production to slightly increase to about 34.6 million tons

from an estimated 34.39 million tons in MY 2013-14. It estimates Bangladesh to import 600,000

tons of rice in 2015.

India Rice Stocks in Central Pool Stand at

22.23 Million Tons as of May 1, 2015; Down

22% from Last Year

May 11, 2015


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India’s rice stocks in the central pool as of May 1, 2015 stood at around 22.23 million tons

(including a milled equivalent of about 7.968 million tons of paddy), down about 22% from

around 28.41 million tons recorded during the same period last year, according to data from the

Food Corporation of India (FCI).Month-over-month, India's rice stocks in the central pool are

slightly down from around 23.61 million tons recorded on April 1, 2015. However, current rice

stocks are about 82% more than the required buffer and strategic reserve norms of around 12.2

million tons for this time of the year, according to the FCI.

Total food grain stocks (including rice and wheat) in the central pool stand at around 56.586

million tons as of May 1, 2015, down about 12% from last year's stock of around 64 million tons

and up about 38% from last month's stock of around 41.143 million tons. Wheat stocks stand at

around 34.127 million tons, slightly down from last year's stock of around 34.403 million tons

and up about 98% from last month's stock of around 17.221 million tons.

The government of India had revised the buffer norms for food grains, including rice, in the Central Pool

in January this year. According to the new norms, buffer stocks for food grains to be maintained with the

FCI at this part of the year is 21.04 million tons. Current norms are 21.2 million tons

Iraq Passes on Tenders to Purchase At least

30,000 Tons of Rice


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May 11, 2015

purchased any rice in international tender that closed on April 26, 2015 with offers remaining

valid till April 30, 2015, Reuters quoted European traders as saying. The Middle East nation

invited international tenders to purchase at least 30,000 tons of rice from the U.S., Uruguay,

Argentina, Brazil, Vietnam, Pakistan, India, Cambodia or Thailand.While Vietnam offered to

sell rice for $418.8 per ton, Thailand offered a price of $428 per ton, India offered a price of

$475 per ton, the U.S. offered a price of $588 per ton, Uruguay offered a price of $653 per ton,

and Argentina and Brazil both offered rice at around $609 per ton.Iraq purchased 80,000 tons of

rice from Thailand in January.

Mycorrhiza Fungi May Mitigate Future

‘Phosphate Crisis’

May 11, 2015

For over 500 million years mycorrhiza fungi have been involved in a symbiotic relationship with

plants, providing a secondary root system more extensive and efficient than plants own root

system for sustainable nutrition supply.For rice, new studies have found that the interplay of

roots with a common soil fungus can alter the genetic makeup of rice crops, setting off additional

root growth for the rice crop to take in more nutrients, including phosphate, in soil instances

when the plants’ own roots alone are incapable of doing so. Some scientists are projecting

mycorrhiza fungi could help mitigate the impending 'phosphate crisis' looming on the horizon, as

the big phosphate mines are only predicted to last for another 30 to 50 years, according to some

estimates.Mycorrhiza fungi are widely used in domestic gardens as 'bio' plant foods but have yet

to make a mark on industrial agriculture

FAO Forecasts Thailand 2015 Rice Exports

at Record 11.2 Million Tons

May 11, 2015


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The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has forecasted Thailand's 2015 rice exports

at a record 11.2 million tons, slightly up from last year due to high levels of public stocks and

government's intentions to clear more of the existing rice stockpiles.The FAO estimates

Thailand's 2015 aggregate paddy rice production at around 35 million tons (around 23.1 million

tons, basis milled), slightly above the reduced 2014 harvest of around 34.3 million tons (around

22.64 million tons, basis milled).Planting for the 2015 main season is currently underway and the

FAO forecasts the current main season rice production, whose harvest will begin in October, at

around 27.2 million tons (around 18 million tons), almost unchanged from last year.

The FAO estimates the 2014-15 secondary season rice crop, which is currently being harvested,

at around 7.2 million tons, about 26% below last year's output. The decline is attributed to

prolonged dry weather conditions in the northern and central regions of the country.Average

domestic prices declined slightly in April due to increased supplies from the 2014-15 secondary

season harvest and higher volumes of sales from government stocks in the previous months.

Lower export demand also contributed to price falls, says the FAO.USDA estimates Thailand to


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produce 29.015 million tons of paddy rice (around 19.15 million tons, milled basis) and export

around 11 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (January - December 2015).

Pakistan Basmati Rice Export Prices Decline

Slightly in April 2015

May 11, 2015

Pakistan basmati rice prices have declined slightly in April 2015 after increasing continuously

for two months, according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The decline

can be attributed to better rice growing prospects due to adequate availability of irrigation water

in major rice growing areas, increased distribution of certified seeds and increased allocation of

institutional credit over last year.According to a recent report by the country's Federal

Committee on Agriculture (FCA), the government has fixed a target of 7 million tons, basis

milled, (around 10.35 million tons, basis paddy) from an area of around 2.8 million hectares. In

April 2015, Pakistan's basmati rice export prices have declined slightly to around $980 per ton


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from around $985 per ton in March 2015, and down about 27% from their year-ago levels of

around $1,350 per ton.

In terms of local currency, average Pakistan basmati rice prices in April 2015 increased slightly

to around PKR 99,617 per ton (using historical exchange rates) from around PKR 99,485 per ton

in March 2015, and down about 25% from around PKR 132,908 per ton in April 2014.

Average Pakistan basmati rice prices stood at around $955 per ton in the first four months of

2015 (January - March), down about 30% from around $1,364 per ton recorded during the same

period last year.Average basmati rice prices increased between August and September 2014 and

peaked to around $1,450 per ton in September 2014 due to fears of a fall in production as floods

affected large area of basmati rice acreage in Punjab. However, the overall production of

basmati rice has not been significantly affected by floods. Pakistan basmati growers associations

have been urging the government to provide adequate support to increase competitiveness of

Pakistan's basmati rice in the global market.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Unchanged

Market ahead of WASDE; Rice Plantings

Now 9% ahead of 5-Year Average

May 11, 2015

The U.S. cash market was mostly unchanged today with little to no trading to report ahead of

tomorrow’s USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate.Sellers continue to hold out

for better prices as they finish up planting despite weakness in the futures market and declining

bids.Some analysts expect that the USDA will cut their long grain export projection given the

slow pace of exports this marketing year however others have their doubts.In the meantime, the

USDA estimates that as of May 10th

, 83% of the US rice crop had been planted which is 9%

ahead of this time last year and 9% behind the previous 5-year average.

As of now, the USDA estimates that farmers have planted at 86% of their rice crop in Arkansas,

75% in California, 93% in Louisiana, 82% in Mississippi, 73% in Missouri, and 78% in

Texas.The USDA also estimates that 53% of the crop has emerged which was 2% ahead of this

time last year but 3% behind of the previous 5-year average. As of now, the USDA estimates that

53% of the rice crop in Arkansas has emerged compared to , 30% in California, 85% in

Louisiana, 61% in Mississippi, 25% in Missouri, and 72% in Texas.


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USDA Post Estimates Jordan 2015 Rice

Imports at 196,000 Tons; Up 30% from Last

Year

May 11, 2015

USDA Post estimates Jordan's 2015 rice imports at around 196,000 tons, up about 30% from an

estimated 151,000 tons last year and down about 2% from USDA's official estimates of around

200,000 tons.Rice is a staple food in Jordan but the country does not produce any rice due to

water scarcity. According to the Post, average annual rice consumption in Jordan is about 27

kilograms per person and medium grain (Camolino) rice variety is the most preferred one in

Jordan. It constitutes of about 90% of total rice imports by Jordan. The Post estimates Jordan

2015 rice consumption at around 190,000 tons, up about 27% from around 150,000 tons last year

and down about 5% from USDA's official estimates of around 200,000 tons. It estimates rice

consumption to remain at 190,000 tons in 2016 also.

The U.S. accounts for over half of Jordan's annual rice imports and the remaining is filled by

Thailand, India and Turkey. It estimates Jordan’s rice imports to decline to around 190,000 tons

in 2016.Jordan does not maintain any buffer stocks for rice and the government does not impose

any restrictions on rice imports. Rice is imported and distributed by private traders in a market-

based system according to free market rules of supply and demand, says the Post.


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Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Seen Flat to Begin New Trading

Week

May 11, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Jul delivery are currently seen trading 1 cent per cwt (about $0.22

per ton) higher at $9.750 per cwt (about $215 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The

other grains are seen trading lower: soybeans are currently seen about 0.2% lower, wheat is listed

about 0.9% lower and corn is currently noted 0.1% higher.U.S. stocks traded in a narrow range

on Monday, following a strong rally on Friday's jobs report, as investors awaited the week's data

releases. The major averages surged more than 1% on Friday after April's employment figures

showed continued economic growth, but not strong enough for most analysts to expect an

immediate rate hike.

Friday's rally pushed the S&P 500 close to its closing high of 2,117.69, while the Dow and

Nasdaq also approached their record closes. No major economic news or earnings reports are

expected Monday. Retail sales and industrial production figures come out later in the week.

Yields edged higher, stabilizing after a rapid rally last week. The dollar edged slightly higher,

with the euro at $1.114. Oil held near recent highs. Europe is in focus as the euro zone finance

ministers meet on Monday and Greece faces a payment deadline to the International Monetary

Fund on Tuesday. European equities were lower Monday, pausing after a rally on Friday, and

overlooking the news that China has cut interest rates for the third time in six months.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced the cut in its benchmark lending rate and one-

year deposit rates by 25 basis points on Sunday, as growth in the Asian economic giant slowed to

levels not seen since the global financial crisis. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 3.5

points, or 0.02%, at 18,195. The S&P 500 traded up 0.66 points, or 0.03% at 2,116, with

consumer discretionary leading six sectors higher and energy the greatest decliner. The Nasdaq

traded up 11 points, or 0.22%, at 5,014. Gold is currently trading about 0.1% lower, crude oil is

seen trading about 0.3% higher, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.2% higher at

9:15am Chicago time.


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Thailand May Lose World's Top Rice

Exporter Status in 2015 Due to Relatively

High Prices, Says TREA Official

May 11, 2015

The Honorary President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) has expressed concern

that increasing competition between world's top rice exporters coupled with increasing rice

supplies and declining demand from most of the importers may lead to further price declines and

price wars, according to local sources.He however noted that Thai rice export prices may not fall

like those of Vietnam and India as their currencies were weaker against the dollar compared to

Thai Baht and also they have huge quantities of cheap rice.


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Export prices of Thai 5% broken rice, Vietnam 5% broken rice and India 5% broken rice

currently stand at around $ 375 per ton, $355 per ton and $375 per ton respectively compared to

$410 per ton, $380 per ton and $390 per ton respectively at the beginning of the year. Also

Vietnam's efforts to devalue its currency may further lower prices of Viet rice.

Due to this price differential, he said Thai rice exports may fall to around 8-8.5 million tons in

2015, compared to around 10.96 million tons exported in 2014. He noted that a weakening Baht

may also not push down Thai rice export prices significantly. But he said Thai Hommali rice

exports may benefit due to a weakening Baht.The TREA official also noted that the price war

would continue in the third quarter as well. However, he said India's production may also

determine global rice prices adding that a fall in India's production in 2014-15 (October -

September) may push up prices to some extent.Thailand exported 2.95 million tons of rice

between January 1, 2015 and April 28, 2015, according to the TREA. During the same period,

India exported 2.87 million tons, 1.73 million tons and Vietnam exported 1.71 million said the

TREA official.

Pakistan Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their

Quotes; Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged

May 11, 2015

Pakistan rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice and 25% broken rice by about $10

per ton each to around $390 - $400 per ton and $345 - $355 per ton respectively . Other Asia rice

sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged.

5% Broken Rice

Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium on

Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $370

- $380 per ton, about a $20 per ton discount to Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $390 - $400 per

ton, up about $10 per ton from Friday.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $350 - $360 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium on

Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $330- $340 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around

$345 - $355, on par with Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per ton, up about a $10

per ton from Friday.


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Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $375 - $385 per ton. India parboiled rice is

indicated at around $360 - $370 per ton, about a $30 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice

shown at around $390 - $400 per ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, about a $5 per ton

premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton. India's 100%

broken rice is shown at around $270 - $280 per ton, about a $20 per ton discount to Pakistan

broken sortexed rice shown at around $290 - $300 per ton.

Argentina Exports 42,161 Tons of Rice in

February 2015; Up 88% from Previous Year

May 11, 2015


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Argentina has exported around 42,161 tons of rice in February 2015, up about 88% from around

22,467 tons exported during the same period in 2014, according to data from the Ministry of

Agriculture in Argentina. Month-on-month, Argentina's rice exports increased over three fold

from around 12,762 tons exported in January 2015.In February 2015, Argentina exported around

30,000 tons of rice to Iraq (about 71% of total February 2015 exports), around 4,120 tons of rice

to Brazil (about 10% of February 2015 exports), around 3,133 tons of rice to Chile (about 7% of

February 2015 exports), and around 2,746 tons of rice to Bolivia (about 7% of February 2015

exports). It exported the remaining 5% or around 2,162 tons of rice to Algeria (1,200 tons), Costa

Rica (450 tons), U.S. (307 tons), Belgium (97 tons), Canada (82 tons) and Paraguay (27 tons)

during February 2015.

Argentina exported around 54,923 tons in the first two months of 2015, down about 25% from

around 73,340 tons exported during the same period in 2014.USDA estimates Argentina's milled

rice production at about 975,000 tons in MY 2014-15 (April – March), against consumption of

around 500,000 tons. It estimates Argentina to export around 580,000 tons of rice in MY 2014-

15.

USDA Post Estimates Bangladesh to Import

600,000 Tons of Rice in 2015-16; Down 45%

from Last Year


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May 11, 2015

USDA Post has estimated Bangladesh to import around 600,000 tons of rice in MY 2015-16

(May - April), down about 45% from an estimated 1.1 million tons imported in MY 2014-15.

Imports in 2014-15 (mostly by private sector) are said to have increased due to competitive

Indian as well as global rice prices. Imports have also increased due to absence of duties on

imported rice, says the Post based on local media reports.The Post has estimated Bangladesh's

2015-16 milled rice production at around 34.8 million tons, slightly up from an estimated 34.5

million tons last year. The Post reports that the government of Bangladesh is planning to

procure 100,000 of Boro paddy and milled rice from May 1, 2015 to August 31, 2015.

It reports that wholesale rice prices have fallen significantly since January 2015 as hartals and

blockades disrupted transportation to major city markets.Based on the data from the Ministry of

Food, the Post reports that the government stocks as of April 23, 2015 stood at around 842,000

tons, up about 13% from around 747,000 tons during the same time last year.

USDA Post Estimates Vietnam MY 2014-15

Rice Exports at 6.7 Million Tons, Up 5.5%

from Last Year

May 11, 2015

USDA Post has estimated Vietnam's MY 2014-15 (January 2015 - December 2015) rice exports

at around 6.7 million tons, up about 5.5% from an estimated 6.35 million tons exported in MY

2013-14 and unchanged from USDA's official estimates of around 6.7 million tons. However,

the Post expects a strong competition from Thailand, India, Pakistan and other emerging

exporters such as Cambodia and Myanmar. It estimates Vietnam's MY 2014-15 rice exports to

remain at 6.7 million tons due to expected low carry-stocks from MY 2014-15.

The Post estimates Vietnam MY 2014-15 paddy rice production at around 44.88 million tons

(around 28.05 million tons, basis milled), down about 2% from an estimated 45.058 million tons

(around 28.16 million tons, basis milled) produced in MY 2013-14 and slightly down about from

USDA official estimates of around 45.191 million tons (around 28.24 million tons, basis milled)

due to the adjustment of seasonal planted/harvested area. The Post estimates Vietnam's MY

2014-15 rice harvested area at around 7.7 million hectares, down about 1% from around 7.788

million hectares last year and down about 70,000 hectares from USDA's official estimates of

7.77 million hectares.


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The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has planned to shift around

100,000 - 110,000 hectares of paddy land to other crops by 2015 and around 510,000 hectares by

2020 to keep a check on imports of other agricultural products such as corn, soybeans, sesame

and vegetables. The MARD is also developing large scale rice farms in the 13 provinces of the

Mekong River Delta (MRD) and is expected to have around 300,000 - 500,000 hectares of large

scale rice planting farms by the end of 2015.

USDA Post estimates Vietnam MY 2015-16 paddy rice production to increase to around 45.19

million tons (around 28.24 million tons, basis milled.The Post estimates Vietnam’s ending stocks

to decline to around 824,000 tons in MY 2014-15, down about 15% from an estimated 974,000

tons last year and down about 6% from USDA's official estimates of around 874,000 tons due to

strong rice consumption and residual and expected higher export volumes. It estimates Vietnam's

rice ending stocks to further decline to around 784,000 tons in MY 2015-16.

Vietnam Exports About 1.555 Million Tons of

Rice in First Four Months of 2015

May 11, 2015


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Vietnam exported about 1.555 million tons of rice in first four months of calendar year 2015,

down about 11% from about 1.758 million tons of rice exported during same time last year,

according to data from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA). Average rice export price so far in

this year stands at about $419 per ton (FOB), down about 3.7% per ton from same time last

year.In April 2015, Vietnam exported about 650,507 tons of rice, up about 35.4% from about

480,490 tons rice exported in March 2015, and up about 21% from about 537,094 tons rice

exported in April 2014. Average export prices in April 2015 stands at about $414 per ton, down

about 6% from a year ago, and up about 4.4% per ton from a month ago.

News & Politics

12th may,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine