Upload
gloverparkgroup
View
2.368
Download
4
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
2014: Post Election Analysis
Citation preview
2014: Post Election Analysis
ELECTION OVERVIEW
2
v Context
v The Results: What happened? v The Reasons: Why it happened?
v The Future: What does it mean going forward?
Mood Of The Country
DESPITE IMPROVING ECONOMY…
8
9.5%
7.8%
5.9%
2010 2012 2014
Unemployment rate (Sept.)
1,184 1,417
1,981
2010 2012 2014
S&P 500
146 145
168
2010 2012 2014
S&P/Case-‐Shiller U.S. Home Price Index
(Aug.)
Nov. 1 Nov. 5
Oct. 29
Source: Pew Research Center, October 30, 2014
4
During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
Will stay the same
Will get worse
Will get better
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, October 8-‐12, 2014
…PERCEPTION ECONOMY IS STAYING THE SAME
Note: “Unsure/Refused” results are not shown.
45%
38%
32% 31% 27%
17% 23%
29% 26% 26% 27% 27% 28%
9%
28%
18% 21%
24%
42%
34%
24% 25% 26% 24%
20% 24%
34%
33%
49% 47% 48%
38%
42% 46%
48% 47% 48% 51%
46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Oct 2012
Dec 2012
Jun 2013
Jul 2013
Sept 2013
Oct 2013
Oct 2013
Dec 2013
Mar 2014
Apr 2014
Jun 2014
Sept 2014
Oct 2014
AND AMERICANS REMAIN IN A FUNK
8
65%
61%
63%
29%
32%
30%
Oct. 2014
Oct. 2012
Oct. 2010
Dissatisfied Satisfied
% who are … with the way things are going in this country today
33%
44%
54%
21%
13%
8%
Oct. 2014
Oct. 2012
Oct. 2010
Poor Excellent/good
% saying the nation’s economic conditions are…
Source: Pew Research Center, October 30, 2014
AND MORE SO IN KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES
8
22%
74%
Arkansas
32%
59%
Colorado
32%
62%
Florida
32%
66%
Georgia
31%
65%
Iowa
23%
73%
Kansas
28%
68%
North Carolina
30%
68%
Virginia
Generally going in the right direction
Seriously off on the wrong track
Do you think things in this country today are:
Source: 2014 Exit Polls
Favorability
6
OBAMA STILL MORE POPULAR THAN CONGRESSIONAL PARTIES, BUT NOT BY MUCH
Source: Exit Poll Data, ABC News/Washington Post Poll, Oct 23-‐26, 2014, CBS News Poll, Oct 23-‐27, 2014
43% 42%
Job Approval
44%
29% 21% 44%
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Barack Obama
MORE AMERICANS FOLLOWED NEWS ABOUT EBOLA THAN THIS YEAR’S POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS
8
Source: 2014 Exit Poll Data
51%
59%
This year's political campaign
News about Ebola
Extremely/very closely
The Results: What Happened
SENATE: PRE-‐ELECTION – RACES IN PLAY
Democrats: 53* Republicans: 45
OR
AK
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NC
Source: CNN 10 *Two independents caucus with Democrats
SENATE: POST-‐ELECTION – REPS GAIN SEVEN SEATS SO FAR
Democrats: 45 Republicans: 52
OR
AK
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NC
NH Ernst (R): 52% Braley(D-‐i): 44%
Cotton (R): 57% Pryor(D-‐i): 39%
Tillis(R): 49% Hagan(D-‐i): 47%
Source: CNN 11
Sullivan (R): 49% Begich (D-‐i): 45%
Gardner (R): 50% Udall (D-‐i): 45%
Rounds(R): 51% Weiland (D): 29%
Capito (R): 62% Tennant (D): 34%
Landrieu (D): 42% Cassidy (R): 41% RUN OFF
Daines (R): 58% Curtis(D): 40%
Warner(D-‐i): 49% Gillespie (R): 48%
HOUSE OVERVIEW: OVERALL 9 SEAT REPUBLICAN GAIN SO FAR – WILL PROBABLY INCREASE
10
Democrats Republicans
Pre-‐Elec(on 193 242
Gains / Losses +8 -‐8
Results 201 234
Democrats Republicans
Pre-‐Elec(on 199* 233*
Results** 174 242
2014
2012
Source: CNN
**19 RACES STILL UNDECIDED *Does not add up to 435 due to vacancies
GUBERNATORIAL RACES IN PLAY
OR
AK
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NC
Source: CNN 13
36 governorships contested
GUBERNATORIAL PARTY SHIFTS
OR
AK
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NC
Source: CNN 14
*Dark Gray indicates too-‐close-‐to-‐call races
Walker (I): 48% Parnell (R): 47%
Hutchinson (R): 55% Ross (D): 42%
Rauner (R): 51% Quinn (D-‐i): 46%
Shumlin (D-‐i): 47% Miln (R): 45%
Hogan (R): 54% Brown (D): 45%
Wolf (D): 55% Corbett (R): 45%
Baker (R): 48% Coakley (D): 47%
INCUMBENT SCORECARD
9
House Members Senators Governors Republicans Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans Democrats
Steve Southerland (R-‐FL)
Joe Garcia (D-‐FL) Mark Pryor (D-‐AR) Tom Corbett (R-‐PA) Pat Quinn (D-‐IL)
Vance McAllister (R-‐LA)
John Barrow (D-‐GA) Mark Udall (D-‐CO)
Bill Enyart (D-‐IL) Kay Hagan (D –NC)
Brad Schneider (D-‐IL)
Mary Landrieu (D – LA)*
Steven Horsford (D-‐NV)
Carol Shea-‐Porter (D-‐NH)
Tim Bishop (D-‐NY)
Dan Maffei (D-‐NY)
Pete Gallego (D-‐TX)
Nick Rahall (D-‐WV)
Source: NPR
*Forced into a run-‐off elec(on
The Reasons: Why it Happened
13
“THE ECONOMY” IS #1 ISSUE AND FAVORS REPUBLICANS
Source: 2014 Exit polls
Economy 45% (+2)
Health Care
25% (+20)
Illegal Immigra(on
14% (+48)
Foreign Policy 13% (+12)
VOTERS ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE DIRECTION OF THE ECONOMY
Very worried 37%
Somewhat worried 41%
Not too worried 18%
Not at all worried 4%
18
How worried are you about the direction of the nation’s economy in the next year?
78% are somewhat or very worried
Source: 2014 Exit polls
VOTERS ARE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE LIVES OF THE NEXT GENERATION OF AMERICANS
19
22% 27%
48%
Better than life today About the same Worse than life today
Do you expect life for the next generation of Americans to be:
Total Dem Rep
Better than life today
22% 68% 31%
Worse than life today
48% 29% 68%
About the same
27% 60% 39%
Source: 2014 Exit polls
Obama
17
WE’VE BEEN HERE BEFORE: OBAMA IN SIMILAR SITUATION AS HIS PREDECESSOR AT SECOND MID-‐TERM ELECTION
63% 63% 57%
42% 37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Clinton (1998)
Reagan (1986)
Eisenhower (1958)
Obama (2014)
G.W. Bush (2006)
Job Approval Ra(ngs for Prior Presidents in October of Second Year of 2nd Term
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
18
OR WERE WE HERE BEFORE: 2014 LOOKS A LOT LIKE 2010
Source: 2006, 2010 & 2014 exit polls
2006 (Bush)
vs. 2014 (Obama)
Vote In Opposi(on To Sicng President
Vote In Support Of Sicng President
Job Approval Of Sicng President
33%
19%
44%
36%
22%
43%
2010 (Obama)
37%
24%
45%
OBAMA’S UNPOPULARITY DRAGS DOWN DEMOCRATS
36
Source: NBC News
Obama Approval Dem % of vote Difference Who Won
Illinois 50% 53% 3 Democrat
Michigan 50% 55% 5 Democrat
Minnesota 47% 53% 6 Democrat
Maine 47% 32% -‐15 Republican
North Carolina 43% 47% 4 Republican
Georgia 43% 45% 2 Republican
New Hampshire 43% 52% 9 Democrat
Colorado 43% 45% 2 Republican
South Carolina 42% 39% -‐3 Republican
Virginia 40% 49% 9 Democrat
Iowa 39% 44% 5 Republican
Mississippi 38% 39% 1 Republican
Kentucky 35% 41% 6 Republican
South Dakota 345 29% -‐5 Republican
Arkansas 31% 39% 8 Republican
SENATE VOTE: FOR OBAMA OR AGAINST HIM
19
5%
10%
14%
19%
11%
18%
18%
8%
15%
19%
10%
9%
19%
West Virginia
Kentucky
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Colorado
Michigan
Louisiana
Kansas
Iowa
Georgia
Arkansas
Alaska
US
47%
40%
34%
37%
29%
30%
43%
43%
32%
36%
40%
31%
33% -‐14
-‐22
-‐30
-‐17
-‐17
-‐35
-‐25
-‐12
-‐18
-‐18
-‐20
-‐30
-‐42
Vote In Opposition To Obama Vote To Support Obama Net
Source: 2014 Exit Poll Data
Dissatisfaction
ALMOST EIGHT IN TEN VOTERS SELDOM OR NEVER TRUST THE GOVERNMENT TO DO WHAT IS RIGHT
26
Just about always, 3%
Most of the time,
17%
Only some of the time, 60%
Never, 18%
How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right?
79% trust the government at most only some of the time
Source: MSNBC 2010 Exit Poll Data
Turn Out
PRELIMINARY TURNOUT NUMBERS ARE WAY DOWN FROM 2010 AND 2012
28
64%
40.9%
58%
36.6%*
2008 2010 2012 2014
*2014 number is an estimate
Source: Five Thirty Eight
TURNOUT INCREASED IN SOME COMPETITIVE STATES BUT DECREASED IN OTHERS
29
Source: Five Thirty Eight
Electorate
ELECTORATE MORE CONSERVATIVE AND LESS MODERATE THAN ELECTIONS IN RECENT HISTORY
23
Source: TargetPointConsul(ng.com – Exit Poll Data, November 3, 2010
49%
53% 51% 50%
47% 48% 45% 46%
49% 46% 47%
50% 50% 49%
45% 48%
44%
39%
41% 40%
32% 30%
32%
28%
36%
35% 33% 34%
30%
36%
34% 31%
29%
34% 33% 32% 34%
41%
35% 37%
20% 17% 17% 18% 17% 17% 18% 19%
21% 18%
20% 19% 20% 17%
21% 20% 22%
20%
25% 23%
Moderates Conservatives Liberals
SLIGHT REPUBLICAN ADVANTAGE
Source: 2014 Exit Polls 25
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Democrat 37% 38% 39% 36% 38% 35%
Independent 26% 26% 29% 28% 29% 28%
Republican 37% 36% 32% 36% 32% 36%
Party Split Even D+2 D+7 Even D+6 R+1
27
SIGNIFICANTLY OLDER ELECTORATE. SENIORS SWUNG TO REPUBLICAN PARTY
Source: 2014 Exit polls
Under 30 Vote
2008 (18%)
2010 (11%)
2012 (19%)
2014 (13%)
Democratic 63% 57% 60% 54%
Republican 34% 40% 37% 43%
Spread D+29 D+17 D+23 D+11
65+ Vote
2008 (15%)
2010 (23%)
2012 (16%)
2014 (22%)
Democratic 49% 38% 44% 42%
Republican 48% 59% 56% 57%
Spread D+1 R+21 R+12 R+15
While youth vote remained Democratic, young voters largely stayed home
Large senior vote went Republican
Source: 2014 Exit polls
32
MINORITY TURNOUT DOWN AS WELL
Race Breakdown
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
White 77% 79% 74% 78% 72% 75%
Black 12% 10% 13% 10% 13% 12%
Hispanic/LaLno
8% 8% 8% 8% 10% 8%
LaLno House Vote 62% DemocraLc 36% Republican
TEA PARTY PLAYS ROLE IN ELECTIONS
Source: 2014 Exit polls
32
Overall U.S. Tea Party Support: 33%
New Hampshire 30%* California 28% Arkansas 33%*
<33
South Carolina 41%* Louisiana 37%*
Iowa 36%* Mississippi 36%* Georgia 36%* New York 35% Kansas 33%*
Kentucky 33%*
33+
*Denotes 2014 Senate Race Exit Poll Data
Electoral Map
ELECTORAL MAP FAVORED REPUBLICANS
8
2012 Presidential results
2014 Senate map had many Democrats defending seats in
“red” states
What The Public Wants?
HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS
2004 2008 2012 2014
Government should do more to solve problems
46% 51% 43% 41%
Government is doing too many things better left to
businesses and individuals
49% 43% 51% 54%
Source: 2014 Exit Polls 39
Views of Government
HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS Affordable Care Act
Source: 2014 Exit Polls 40
25% 21%
48%
Did not go far enough
Was about right
Went too far
Do you think the 2010 Federal Health Care Law:
HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS Climate Change
Source: 2014 Exit Polls 41
40%
Yes 58%
No 40%
DEM REP
Yes 70% 29%
No 14% 84%
Do you think climate change, also known as global warming, is a serious problem?
HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS
2012 2014
Offered a chance to apply for legal status
65% 57%
Deported to the country they came from
28% 39%
ImmigraLon
Should most illegal immigrants working in the United States be:
Source: 2014 Exit Polls 42
HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS AborLon
Source: 2014 Exit Polls 43
23%
29% 26%
17%
Legal in all cases
Legal in most cases
Illegal in most cases
Illegal in all cases
52%
Which comes closest to your position? Abortion should be…
Looking Forward to 2016
LOOKING FORWARD: WHAT’S AT STAKE IN 2016
45
All 435 seats will be up for election once again.
House:
Senate: Republicans Democrats
52* 45*
+7 -‐
34 seats will be contested. Republicans will be defending 24 of those seats while Democrats will be defending 10.
Presidency:
*Does not add up to 100 because three races are still undecided
Democrats will afempt to retain control of the White House. Candidates will seek to become the 45th president of the United States.