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ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS OF LOCAL ELECTIONSANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS OF LOCAL ELECTIONS
Фото: Reuters http://ratingpro.org [email protected]+380 44 221-4407
· According to the calculation of aggregates parties indices in local elections, Petro Poroshenko Bloc "Solidarnist" was supported by 19.4% of voters, Batkivshchyna - 12%, Opposition bloc - 11.5%, "Ukrainian Union of Patriots - UKROP" - 7, 3%, Svoboda - 6.7%, Radical party of Oleg Lyashko - 6.7%, SAMOPOMICH - 6.3%, Vidrodzhennya - 5.4%, Nash Kray - 4.8%, Agrarian Party of Ukraine - 3.2%.
· Despite the fact that opinion polls confirm support of the necessity of powers transfer from the center to the regions by around two thirds of the citizens of our country, less than half the voters takes participation in local government through the electoral process. The activity of voters in October 2015 is one of the lowest in the history of Ukraine-wide elections.
· Difficult social and economic situation and the lack of reforms results led to the fact that only those political forces who sharply criticized the actions of the central government were able to increase their electoral gains in October 2015 compared to the parliamentary elections of 2014.
· The biggest pro-government party Petro Poroshenko Bloc "Solidarnist", despite the absorption of organizational assets of UDAR and Narodny Front, only approached the result obtained in parliamentary elections (22%).
· Sharp criticism of the authorities allowed the best electoral growth, especially to UKROP and All-Ukrainian Union "Batkivshchyna". At the same time, the result of the latter is interesting in that this political force is part of the ruling coalition.
· For comparison "constructive" criticism of government by association "SAMOPOMICH" during this election campaign gave rather reverse effect. Compared to the parliamentary elections, SAMOPOMICH lost significant part of its electorate, especially in their basic regions (the West and the capital). Unlike the rest of the parliamentary parties that participated in the elections to all regional councils, SAMOPOMICH "missed" elections to Rivne, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Cherkasy and Chernihiv regional councils.
· Opposition bloc has also improved its result (from 9 to 12%), although the struggle for the former electoral right Party of Regions, in this election, unlike the parliamentary elections in 2014, was joined by new political projects - Vidrodzhennya and Nash Kray, who has received result within passable 5%.
· All-Ukrainian Union Svoboda gradually returns its previous positions. If parliamentary elections were held in October 2015 the party would have got into parliament.
· Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko, despite fierce opposition rhetoric, failed to improve its gains compared to the last year. Radicals result froze in figures of 2014. However, it should be noted that Right Sector did not take part in the local elections, participation of which could have adjusted the results of several political forces at once, including the most – of Svoboda, UKROP, the Radical Party.
· Local elections, besides the above-mentioned projects (UKROP, Vidrodzhennya, Nash Kray) may have launched future new parliamentary projects, such as the Agrarian Party of Ukraine, which showed significant results in five regions (in some even breaking the mark of 10%) as well as the Public movement "Narodnyy Control" which received its factions in several regional and city councils of the western regions.
· Efforts of former communists in terms of CPU ban to reform into a new project called "Nova Derzhava" did not produce tangible results, even in regions where the Left position has always been strong (except Mykolaiv region). This gives reason to expect the emergence a new left-wing political force in the near future, because this electoral niche remains unfilled.
· Gromadyanska pozytsiya of Anatoly Gritsenko demonstrated low efficiency, and got only to two regional councils of Galicia.
· The fact that during these elections in some areas the regional elites demonstrated principled independence, nominating their local political projects on election race also deserves some special attention. Unlike 2010, when the platform for passage to the regional councils was then ruling Party of Regions, in 2015 local elites in many regions have created fierce competition to pro-government party Petro Poroshenko Bloc "Solidarnist". Thus, the party “Yedynyy Tsentr” become the leader of race to regional council in Transcarpathian region. "Doviray dilam" of H. Truhanov won first place in Odessa and showed the third result in the region. In the elections to Khmelnytsky regional council the party "Za Konkretni Spravy" was the winner. In Cherkassy region All-Ukrainian Union "Cherkashchany" ranked second and the Party of Free Democrats (S. Odarych) won the election to Cherkasy city council. In Chernivtsi city the party “Ridne Misto” (Hometown) won the elections to the city council.
Ігор Тищенко,Chairman of «RATING Pro»,
Founder of the Sociological Group «Rating»
Любомир Мисів,Political Expert of «RATING Pro»,
PhD
Information-Analytical Center
The results of the main parties in the election of regional councils
УКРАЇНСЬКЕ ОБ’ЄДНАННЯ ПАТРІОТІВ
7,2%
21,9%
6,2%
3,2%10,9%
5,0% 4,5%
6,2%6,6%
5,9%
5,2%
6,9%
8,1%
2,8%
8,4% 2,3%
18,3%
7,3%
7,2%
8,5%
3,4%
6,9%
6,4%
20,4%
17,8%
21,4%
18,1%21,8%
25,9% 17,3%
22%21,6%
29,1%
21,7%
17,5%
22,7%
27,6%
15,8% 14%
10,3%
13,5%
22,2%
20%
20,4%
17,3%
17,7% 18,6%
1,9%
0,9%
5,4%0,7%
2,5%
4,6%8,4%
6,2%
5,2%
3,9%
5,6%
4,8%
6,2% 13,6%
33,8%
29,2%
16,2%
22,8%
21,8%
5,9%
7,2%
5,1%
8,7%
12,9%
3,3%14,9%
18,3% 10,2%
9,5%6,2%
6,9%
5,9%
7,5%
7,4%
7,7%
7,3% 1,7%
2,7%
2,3%
4,3%
3,5%
2,5%
4,7%
5,7%
19,4%
16,0%
9,1%
8,6%16,6%
13,8% 11,0%
18,5%16,9%
18,5%
17,9%
12,5%
17,4%
8,9%
13,7% 5,3%
6,6%
8,6%
11,4%
9,6%
10,6%
15,3%
17,3%
Батьківщина
The party did not participate in the elections to the regional council
Poroshenko Bloc Solidarnist
Batkivshchyna
Summarized results by Ukraine
12,0%
Opposition bloc
UKROP
Svoboda
Radical party
Samopomich
Vidrodzhennya
Nash Kray
Since in Donetsk and Lugansk regions elections to regional councils were not held, in these regions the cumulative results of parties in elections to district and city councils were taken for calculation
the total number of votes cast for political party in all regional council and the Kyiv City Council
the total number of votes castfor local organizations of political parties
=
19,4% 11,5% 7,3% 6,7%6,7% 6,3% 5,4% 4,8%
Data: Central Election Commission
Poroshenko Bloc «Solidarnist»
Opposition bloc
Batkivshchyna
Svoboda
«Ukrainian Union of Patriots – UKROP»
The result of the party in Ukraine
Method of calculation:
The results of the main parties in the election of regional councils
12,8%
1,4%
2,9%
8,1%
0,4%
6,1% 35,5%
7,8%
2,3%
4,0%
5,0%
7,4%
10,6%
8,5%
8,3%
5,6%
4,6%4,7%
7,8% 7,8%
11,4%8,2%
10,2%
6,8%
10,2%
9,2%
2,2%
8,6% 2,7%
6,1%
6,5%
7,5%
4,5%
2,9%
16,3%
8,7%
6,1%
6,5%
14,8%
3,9%7,4%
7,6%
7,6%
7,5%
7,0%
9,2%
11,8%
4,5% 8,6%
5,7%
6,1%
5,9%САМОПОМІЧОБ Є ДН АННЯ
5,1%
5,2%
3,1%
3,3%2,0%
1,7%
1,5%2,3%
3,4%
5,4%
1,0%
7,4%
0,5%
0,9% 8,0%
1,7%
10,3%
8,9%
12,9%
7,4%
15,0%
9,2%
3,9%
The party did not participate in the elections to the regional council
Batkivshchyna
Summarized results by Ukraine
12,0%
Opposition bloc
UKROP
Svoboda
Radical party
Samopomich
Vidrodzhennya
Nash Kray
19,4% 11,5% 7,3% 6,7%6,7% 6,3% 5,4% 4,8%
Poroshenko Bloc Solidarnist
Radical party of O.Lyashko
SAMOPOMICH
Vidrodzhennya
Nash Kray
Since in Donetsk and Lugansk regions elections to regional councils were not held, in these regions the cumulative results of parties in elections to district and city councils were taken for calculation
the total number of votes cast for political party in all regional council and the Kyiv City Council
the total number of votes castfor local organizations of political parties
=
Data: Central Election Commission
The result of the party in Ukraine
Method of calculation:
