Catalan Political Opinion Barometer - November 2013

3rd wave 2013

Political Opinion Barometer

31

Pre

ss r

ep

ort

2 Contents

Contents

1. Technical specifications

2. Main results

Press report based on the results of the Political Opinion Barometer. 3rd wave 2013

Corresponding to the Register of Opinion Studies number 733

Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013

3

Technical specifications Press report, Public Opinion Barometer (BOP). 3nd wave 2013

1

4


Technical specifications

Summary

Scope: Catalonia

Univers: Spanish citizens of 18 years of age and more who live in Catalonia

Method of data collection:

Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI)

Sampling procedure:

Stratification by province and town size, with selection of last sample units (individuals) using sex and age crossed

quotas.

Town size is divided into 6 categories: • less or equal to 2,000 inhabitants

• from 2,001 and 10,000 inhabitants



• from 150,001 and 1,000,000 inhabitants

• more than 1 million inhabitants

To calculate the quotas we use the official statistics from the Padró continu de població from the year 2012. The age

quotas correspond to the following intervals: • 18 to 34 years of age

• 35 to 49 years of age

• 50 to 64 years of age

• 65 and more years of age

Level of confidence: 95%

Variance p=q=50%

Sample size: 2,000 individuals

Sampling error: + 2.69%

5

Sample size:

2,000 interviews with the following territorial distribution:

• Barcelona 800

• Girona 400

• Lleida 400

• Tarragona 400

Allocation:

Not proportional. To obtain representative figures for the whole Catalan population, the results have been weighted by

the following territorial weights:

• Barcelona 1.864609957

• Girona 0.465810004

• Lleida 0.286327498

• Tarragona 0.518642584

Sampling error:

The overall margin of error of the survey is + 2.69%, for a confidence level of 95% (1.96 sigma) and under the assumption

of maximum indetermination (p=q=50%). In each province the margins of error are:

• Barcelona + 3.47%

• Girona + 4.90%

• Lleida + 4.90%

• Tarragona + 4.90%

Fieldwork:

The fieldwork has been performed by GESOP, from the 4 to the 14 of November, 2013.


Technical specifications

6

Main results Press report, Political Opinion Barometer (BOP). 3rd wave 2013

2

7

Do you think that Catalonia has achieved...

(N=2,000; simple response; %)

Question 27

Political values

4.5 Relations between Catalonia and Spain


3,9

20,6

70,4

4,3 0,8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Too much autonomy A sufficient level of autonomy

An insufficient level of autonomy

Do not know Do not answer

3,3 3,9 3,8 4,6 3,9

21,3 18,6 19,2 19,1 20,6

68,4 71,6 71,2 72,5 70,4

0

20

40

60

80

100

June 12 Oct 12 Feb.13 June 13 Nov. 13

Too much Sufficient Insufficient

8

Do you believe that Catalonia should be...


Question 28

Political values


5,4

18,6 21,3

48,5

4,0 2,2

0

10

20

30

40

50

A region of Spain An autonomous community of

Spain

A state in a federal Spain

An independent state

Do not know Do not answer

5,7 4,0

4,4 4,6 5,4

25,4

19,1 20,7

22,8 18,6

28,7 25,5

22,4 21,2

21,3

34,0

44,3 46,4 47,0 48,5

0

10

20

30

40

50


Region AC Federal state Independent state

9

And more precisely, if a referendum to decide the independence of Catalonia was to be held

tomorrow, what would you do? (N=2,000; simple response; %)

Question 39


Political values

54,7

22,1

15,7

1,3

4,9

1,4

0 20 40 60 80

Vote in favor of independence

Vote against independence

Abstain / would not vote

Other responses

Do not know

Do not answer

51,1 57,0 54,7 55,6 54,7

21,1 20,5 20,7 23,4

22,1

21,1 14,3

17,0 15,3 15,7

0

20

40

60

80

100


Vote in favor of independence Vote against independence Abstain / would not vote

10

Vote in favor of independence 54,7 0,0 80,6 94,0 12,3 52,2 0,7 81,8

Vote against independence 22,1 87,2 5,6 1,3 61,2 23,2 83,6 3,0

Abstain / would not vote 15,7 9,8 9,1 3,3 18,0 15,5 14,0 7,7

Others 1,3 1,1 0,1 0,4 3,6 2,3 0,5 4,7

Do not know 4,9 1,9 3,5 0,9 5,0 4,9 1,2 2,7

Do not answer 1,4 0,0 1,2 0,0 0,0 1,9 0,0 0,0

Unweighted 2000 28 365 452 103 105 100 84

Weighted 2000 27 345 423 113 124 105 79

(*) Non significant resultats

Vote intention, elections to the Parliament of Catalonia

Question 39

Political values


And more precisely, if a referendum to decide the independence of Catalonia was to be held

tomorrow, what would you do? (N=2,000; simple response; %)

11

If elections to the Catalan Parliament were to be held tomorrow, what party or coalition would

you vote for?

(N=2,000; simple response; %;)

Question 32

Elections to the Parliament of Catalonia

5.2 Elections to the Catalan Parliament: vote intention

Previous Barometer


1,4

17,2

21,1

5,6

6,2

5,3

3,9

2,0

4,8

0,8

10,8

16,3

4,6

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

PPC

CIU

ERC

PSC

ICV-EUiA

C's

CUP

Others

Blank vote

Null vote

Will not vote

Undecided

Do not answer

2,1

18,2

22,0

6,9

7,4

5,1

4,8

1,4

4,8

1,2

9,9

12,7

3,5

0 10 20 30 40 50

PPC

CIU

ERC

PSC

ICV-EUiA

C's

CUP

Others

Blank vote

Null vote

Will not vote

Undecided

Do not answer

12

And could you tell me to what party or coalition did you vote for in the last elections to

the Parliament of Catalonia?


Question 30


Real vote 2012 (% over the electoral census)

Previous Barometer


2,7

27,2

13,7

8,4

7,7

3,0

2,7

2,0

2,7

0,1

16,4

5,4

8,1

8,71

20,62

9,20

9,69

6,64

5,08

2,34

3,89

0,98

0,61

32,24

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

PPC

CIU

ERC

PSC

ICV-EUIA

C's

CUP

Others

Blank vote

Null vote

Did not vote

Do not know

Do not answer

2,9

26,4

17,2

8,3

7,3

3,7

4,2

1,7

2,4

0,7

15,0

3,1

7,1

0 10 20 30 40 50

PPC

CIU

ERC

PSC

ICV-EUIA

C's

CUP

Others

Blank vote

Null vote

Did not vote

Do not know

Do not …

13

If elections to the Congreso de los Diputados were to be held tomorrow, what

party or coalition would you vote for?


Question 36

Electoral behaviour

Previous Barometer

5.4 Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados: vote intention


2,1

16,6

17,6

8,3

6,4

2,7

2,4

2,8

5,8

1,0

11,8

17,7

4,8

0 10 20 30 40 50

PPC

CIU

ERC

PSC

ICV-EUiA

C's

CUP

Others

Blank vote

Null vote

Will not vote

Undecided

Do not answer

3,6

18,6

17,2

9,3

7,7

2,9

3,2

1,6

6,6

1,3

9,7

15,1

3,1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

PPC

CIU

ERC

PSC

ICV-EUiA

C's

CUP

Others

Blank vote

Null vote

Will not vote

Undecided

Do not answer

14

Pregunta 34

Electoral behaviour

Baròmetre anterior

Real vote 2011 (% over electoral census)


If elections to the Congreso de los Diputados were to be held tomorrow, what

party or coalition would you vote for?


3,8

21,6

9,9

13,0

7,4

0,8

0,4

1,4

3,0

0,6

21,4

9,0

7,5

13,63

19,31

4,65

17,52

5,32

4,13

1,22

1,06

33,18

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

PPC

CIU

ERC

PSC

ICV-EUiA

C's

CUP

Others

Blank vote

Null vote

Did not vote

Do not know

Do not answer

5,7

21,1

12,5

13,8

6,3

1,0

0,2

1,4

2,7

0,8

20,5

7,4

6,6

0 10 20 30 40 50

PPC

CIU

ERC

PSC

ICV-EUiA

C's

CUP

Others

Blank vote

Null vote

Did not vote

Do not know

Do not answer

15

How do you rate the political performance of these leaders? Please rate them in a scale from 0

to 10, where 0 is very poor and 10 is excellent. (Base: know the leader; simple response; average)

Question 37b

Electoral behaviour

5.7 Ratings of political leaders


5,61

5,21

5,07

4,78

4,75

4,47

4,10

3,89

3,44

3,08

2,47

1,88

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Oriol Junqueras

Alfred Bosch

David Fernàndez

Joan Herrera

Artur Mas

Joan Coscubiela

Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida

Jordi Martí

Pere Navarro

Albert Rivera

Jorge Fernández Díaz

Alícia Sánchez-Camacho

16 Appendix 1

7.4 Cross-tabulation of vote recall and vote intention to the elections of the Parliament of Catalonia.

Others/Null voteBlank

vote

Will not

voteDK/NA

Total

33.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,0 0.8 1.4

2.4 52.4 1.8 2.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.1 1.0 10.3 4.3 17.2

0.9 21.5 82.5 4.1 7.1 0.0 7.9 16.3 1.5 8.4 8.2 21.1

1.4 0.8 0.0 53.8 1.6 0.9 0.0 1.1 0.9 3.6 0.6 5.6

0.5 1.0 0.8 3.5 59.6 0.8 0.0 1.2 0.0 4.3 1.4 6.2

28.6 1.5 0.0 3.6 2.4 75.7 0.0 1.1 14.8 3.6 2.3 5.3

0.0 1.0 2.9 0.0 9.0 0.0 76.0 10.7 0.0 1.6 0.6 3.9

Others/Null vote 0.0 1.2 0.7 1.1 1.6 3.2 4.5 42.1 3.5 2.9 3.1 2.7

Blank vote 1.0 2.3 1.5 2.6 1.9 8.4 1.4 4.4 50.6 7.6 4.4 4.8

Will not vote 13.6 5.1 0.8 9.6 2.9 0.9 0.9 2.6 19.8 35.7 10.8 10.9

DK/NA 18.7 13.0 9.0 19.0 13.7 10.3 9.3 15.6 8.0 20.0 63.5 20.9

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unweighted 59 582 304 149 119 52 61 39 52 316 267 2000

Weitghted 54 543 275 168 154 59 53 43 54 328 270 2000

(*) Non significant resultats

Vote recall, Parliament of Catalonia 2012

Vote

inte

ntio

n

17 Annex 2


Political Opinion Barometer, 3rd wave 2013

Direct vote

intention

Vote

estimates Sit

estimates

Resultats 2012

(in %) (in % over valid

vote) %VV escons

CiU 17.2 22.2 34-36 30.7 50

ERC 21.1 24.2 37-39 13.7 21

PSC 5.6 11.1 14-16 14.4 20

PP 1.4 9.4 13-14 13.0 19

ICV-EUiA 6.2 9.8 12-14 9.9 13

C's 5.3 12.2 15-17 7.6 9

CUP 3.9 5.2 6-7 3.5 3

others 2.0 3.3 5.7 ---

blank vote 4.8 2.6 1.5 ---

null vote 0.8

Abstention (“will not vote") 10.8 Turn out: 60%

Undecided 16.3

Do not answer 4.6


18 Appendix 2

Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados

Political Opinion Barometer, 3rd wave 2013

Direct

intention

Vote

estimates Sit

estimates

Results 2011

(in %) (in % over valid

vote) %VV sits

CiU 16.6 22.2 13-14 29.4 16

PSC 8.3 17.0 8-9 26.7 14

PP 2.1 12.7 7-8 20.7 11

ICV-EUiA 6.4 9.0 3 8.1 3

ERC 17.6 20.6 11-12 7.1 3

C's 2.7 9.2 3-4

6.3 0 CUP 2.4 4.0 0-1

others 2.8 3.5

blank votes 5.8 1.8 1.9

null votes 1.0

Abstention (“will not vote") 11.8 Turn out: 65%

Undecided 17.7

Do not answer 4.8


News & Politics

Catalan Political Opinion Barometer - November 2013