Dear Westminster: We need to talk

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London

Political Leadership How much does it matter?

Dear Westminster We need to talk….


Ben Page Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI


We’re drifting apart


The dominance of the two main parties is falling

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month to November 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter. Figures based on all voting pre-November 2002,

all certain to vote from November 2002 onwards

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

1976 2014 1980 1990 2000 2010


Our age gap is too

big


All data points represent > 200 responses

Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party?

By 2025, only 24% of population will feel attached to a

particular political party

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Pre war (born before 1945) Baby boomers (born 1945-1965) Generation X (born 1966-1979)

Generation Y (born 1980-) Generation Z (born after 2000) Total

% Yes

51%

24%


Fear versus hope


Which of these has been more important in your decision to vote – because you are hopeful for the future if your side wins, or

fearful if it loses?

The Scottish referendum wasn’t a resounding result

in favour of the status quo

All expressing an opinion (923). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014

Hopeful 80%

Fearful 16%

Neither 2%

Don't know 3%

Hopeful 36%

Fearful 58%

Neither 2%

Don't know 3%

Yes supporters No supporters

Source: Ipsos MORI


2%

19%

24%

26%

23%

6% 2% 10%

24%

23%

31%

11% 3%

23%

28%

24%

14%

7%

Strongly

disagree

Neither

agree nor

disagree

Government distrusted at all levels

How strongly, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the following

statements? “[xxx] acts in the best interests of people like me”

Base: 1,967 British adults 16+, 26 September – 3 October 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI

Strongly

agree

Tend to

disagree Don’t know

Tend to

agree

UK Government Local government European Parliament

21%

49%

26%

38%

12%

54%


Although we’re confused about what we want instead

Which, if any, of the following statements best represents your views on how laws ONLY affecting England

should be made?

Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 2,008 British adults 15+, 18th- 24th July 2014

22%

33%

33%

Laws only affecting England should be madeby a separate English Parliament

Laws only affecting England should be madeby the House of Commons, but only English

MPs should be able to vote on them

Laws only affecting England should be votedon by all MPs in Parliament, as they are now


I’ve found someone

else


So far this year…..

UKIP have taken third place and reached a record high.

Those thinking they are a wasted vote have fallen from 57% to 41%.

The SNP have taken a record lead over Labour in

Westminster voting intentions in Scotland.

The Greens equalled their best ever

performance, matching the LibDems for three months and attracting

LibDem switchers who were going to Labour.


You don’t trust me

any more


...would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not?

No new crisis of trust in politicians?

Base: c.1,000-2,000 Source: Ipsos MORI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Doctors

Pollsters

Civil servants

Journalists

Politicians


How much do you trust a British government of any party to place the needs of this

country above the interests of their own political party?

But long-term decline in trust in “government”

Source: British Social Attitudes, 1986-2009

0

10

20

30

40

%

% “almost never”


It’s not you it’s me



Do you regard yourself as belonging to any particular religion?

It’s not just politics – similar generational issues in

attitudes to religion

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

% Yes

Pre war (born before 1945) Baby boomers (born 1945-1965) Generation X (born 1966-1979) Generation Y (born 1980-) Total

Source: Ipsos MORI reanalysis of British Social Attitudes



“How much do you agree or disagree that … the creation of the welfare state is one of Britain's

proudest achievements.”

% “Agree”

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000) Trend

Source: Ipsos MORI reanalysis of British Social Attitudes

And in our attachment to the welfare state


And as for 2015?

A loveless election…


No one will win!

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

March 2010

Thinking ahead to the next general election, which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely?

24%

37%

22%

10% 1% 6%

Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th -10th November 2014

Con majority

Hung – Con biggest

party

Hung – Lab biggest

party

Lab majority

Other

Don’t know

Lab largest = 32%

Con largest = 61%

November 2014

9%

46% 27%

9% 1%

9%

Con largest = 55% Lab largest

= 36%

Hung Parliament = 73%

Hung Parliament = 59%



Political Leadership How much does it matter?

Thank you

[email protected]

benatipsosmori

News & Politics

Dear Westminster: We need to talk