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Politicians will face major voter backlash if they advocate cuts in Social Security benefits or choose deficit reduction over job creation, according to a poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner commissioned by the Campaign for America’s Future and Democracy Corps, with support from MoveOn.org; the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, and the Service Employees International Union.
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April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 1
Deficits and Economic RecoveryA research study on investment and deficit reduction
April 8, 2023
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 2
This presentation is based primarily on a national survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps, Citizen Opinion, and Campaign for America’s Future. The survey was of 1,000 2008 voters (980 landline, 120 cell phone weighted; 853 landline, 147 cell phone unweighted) and conducted July 26-29, 2010. Margin of error: 3.1 percentage points.
All data shown reflects results from 866 likely 2010 voters (910 unweighted; margin of error of 3.2 percentage points) unless otherwise noted.
Methodology
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 3
Unmarried Women 18-29 Year Olds
African Americans Latinos
24.7% 21.3%
11.8% 9.5%
Other Race
5.3%
Source: Census Bureau, November 2008 CPS
Demographic Composition of the Rising American Electorate (RAE)
Voting Eligible Population
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 4
4852
RAE
Non-RAE
New base voters dominate drop-off electorate
Voting Population
*Note: Data for voting population from U.S. Census Bureau CPS report. Data for 2010 likely voters and drop-off voters from national survey conducted July 26-29, 2010 among 866 likely voters and 134 drop-off voters.
2010 Drop-Off Voters2010 Likely Voters
58
42
RAENon-RAE
30
70
RAENon-RAE
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 5
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 5 |
Economic future and deficits
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 6
3
9
47
13
8
8
12
0 25 50
Health care
The federal budget deficit
Illegal immigration
The economy/jobs
Energy/Environment/Gulf oil spill
Economy more than deficits most salient issue of the day
Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
Other
CNN/ORC, July 21, 2010: Which of the following is the most important issue facing the country today?CBS, July 12, 2010: What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?
5
4
38
5
7
6
31
0 25 50
CNN/ORC CBS News
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 7
45
15
43
13
100
80
60
40
20
0
20
40
60
80
100
% warm (51-100 degrees) % very warm (76-100 degrees)
%cool (0-49 degrees) % very cool (0-25 degrees)
Support for action: Investment and deficit reduction equal imperativesNow, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.
20
61
19
60
A plan to dramatically reduce the deficit
over the next five years
A plan to invest in new industries and rebuild
the country over the next five years
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 8
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 8 |
Jobs and deficits: progressive priorities clear
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 9
32
4945
62
3444
2821
Favor funding Oppose funding Favor funding Oppose funding
Oppose increased funding strongly
Favor increased funding strongly
Short term: help now with layoffs and service cuts
+28+4
*Note: The full question with context was asked of one-half the sample, while the section that is not underlined/in bold was asked of the other half of the sample for comparison.
Clean Read With Context
Over the past year, 45 states have had to layoff teachers, police, fire fighters and other employees due to the recession. Next year, states will face continued revenue shortfalls as a result of the weak economy, with some 300,000 teachers and other education workers potentially facing layoffs. Would you favor or oppose the federal government providing more funding to the states to prevent further service cuts and layoffs?
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 10
2320
40
25
63
29
68
28
40
57 57
38
4147
35
16
Favorfunding
Opposefunding
Favorfunding
Opposefunding
Favorfunding
Opposefunding
Favorfunding
Opposefunding
Oppose increased funding strongly
Favor increased funding strongly
Non-RAE heavily swayed by context; RAE already supportive
+17+34
*Note: The full question with context was asked of one-half the sample, while the section that is not underlined/in bold was asked of the other half of the sample for comparison. RAE corresponds to the Rising American Electorate delineated previously.
RAE Non-RAE
Over the past year, 45 states have had to layoff teachers, police, fire fighters and other employees due to the recession. Next year, states will face continued revenue shortfalls as a result of the weak economy, with some 300,000 teachers and other education workers potentially facing layoffs. Would you favor or oppose the federal government providing more funding to the states to prevent further service cuts and layoffs?
+40 +19
Clean Read With Context Clean Read With Context
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 11
50
68
84
5661
18
28
15
34 3549
73
58
2216 10
Protectservices
Cut services Protectservices
Cut services Protectservices
Cut services Protectservices
Cut services
First statement strongly Second statement strongly
Total RepublicansDemocrats Independents
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Long term: protect Medicare and Social Security
First Statement: The federal deficit is a big national problem but we should not make major spending cuts in Social Security or Medicare.
Second Statement: The federal deficit is such a national problem that we have to cut spending broadly, including possible future cuts to Social Security and Medicare.
+40 +69 +26+22
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 12
65
68 6472
13
28 3124
5158
16 20
Protect services Cut services Protect services Cut services Protect services Cut services
First statement strongly Second statement strongly
Total 18-49
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Young nearly as concerned as elderly about entitlement cuts
First Statement: The federal deficit is a big national problem but we should not make major spending cuts in Social Security or Medicare.
Second Statement: The federal deficit is such a national problem that we have to cut spending broadly, including possible future cuts to Social Security and Medicare.
+40 +33 +48
50 and Older
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 13
39
54
77
52
33
18
31
13
32
49
18
64
41
2617
9
Tax wealthy Sales tax Tax wealthy Sales tax Tax wealthy Sales tax Tax wealthy Sales tax
First statement strongly Second statement strongly
Total RepublicansDemocrats Independents
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Independents, Democrats for progressive tax over national sales tax
First Statement: With inequality at its most extreme since the Great Depression, we should raise new revenue with higher taxes on the wealthy, not with a national sales tax that hits working people harder.
Second Statement: In order to raise new revenue to address the deficit, we should institute a national sales tax, rather than increase income taxes on the highest income earners because that hits those able to save and invest.
+23 +64 +16+20
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 14
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 14 |
Proposals to address deficit
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 15
51
52
45
44
30
36
29
22
22
17
25
13
24
42
36
46
42
50
25
33
34
36
43
47
54
56
62
63
6432
25
18
16
13
41
38
28
31
49
46
60
62
65
65
75 50 25 0 25 50 75
Strongly oppose Strongly favor
Deficits: Oppose cutting Social Security, support progressive taxesNow I'd like to read you a list of proposals to help close the federal budget deficit. After I read each item, please tell me whether you FAVOR or OPPOSE that proposal.
Let Bush tax cuts for those making over 250k expire
Eliminate tax breaks and subsidies for corporations
Create a tax on excessive Wall Street bank profits
Lift Social Security payroll tax cap on incomes higher than 107k
Eliminate tax breaks for corporations that outsource jobs
Create half-cent tax on stock transactions
Create carbon tax for utilities and manufacturing
Increase Medicare age from 65 to 67
Create a 3 percent federal sales tax
Raise retirement age for Social Security to 70
Eliminate Medicare and create 11k annual voucher
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 16
43
32
12
34
27
7
16
13
18
27
25
22
41
42
38
39
51
41
52
57
36
53
73
42
55
87
59
66
65
61
63
69
33
19
27
63
66
29
61
45
19
46
37
12
28
34
25
29
100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Strongly oppose Strongly favor
Democrats and independents unified on progressive approaches
Create a tax on excessive Wall Street bank profits
Lift Social Security payroll tax cap on incomes higher than 107k
Eliminate tax breaks for corporations that outsource jobs
Let Bush tax cuts for those making over 250k expire
Now I'd like to read you a list of proposals to help close the federal budget deficit. After I read each item, please tell me whether you FAVOR or OPPOSE that proposal.
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 17
47
50
56
52
47
56
62
47
29
37
43
52
14
17
24
18
21
9
29
26
20
30
40
28
24
35
43
43
40
25
62
58
61
54
52
58
12
10
12
14
11
14
66
69
72
71
69
67
100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Strongly oppose Strongly favor
Majorities reject entitlement cuts
Eliminate Medicare and create11k annual voucher
Raise retirement age forSocial Security to 70
Increase Medicare age from 65 to 67
Create a 3 percent federal sales tax
Now I'd like to read you a list of proposals to help close the federal budget deficit. After I read each item, please tell me whether you FAVOR or OPPOSE that proposal.
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 18
Current standing of economic indicators
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 18 |
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 19
302528 31 28 25 23 23
2822 23 21
1510
28
43 4135 36
29
55
636764 62 63 66 66
71
63
7268
7378
61
5046
50
58 5864
3137 37
22
3928
33
62
85
55
69
5762
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
Right direction Wrong track
Direction of the country: rise in wrong track for three straight months
Net Difference
Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
-18
20062006ElectionElection
Iraq surgeIraq surge20062006
20102010
2008 2008 ElectionElection
Financial Financial CrisisCrisis
-33 -42-36 -31 -35 -41 -43 -48 -47 -35 -50 -45 -52 -63 -75 -33 -11-3 -9 -18
20082008
Stimulus Stimulus Package Package PassesPasses
-22
20092009
-23 -34-24 -31
*Note: From full sample of 2008 voters, based on research for Citizen Opinion.
-40
Health Care Health Care Reform PassesReform Passes
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 20
13 13
2320 21
16
63 6368
191921171616151513
898912
60
7072
6464616566666567
71
7879797977
Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10
Warm Cool
Passage of Passage of Recovery ActRecovery Act
First net job First net job growth: 14,000 growth: 14,000
New JobsNew Jobs
208,000 208,000 New JobsNew Jobs
431,000 431,000 New JobsNew Jobs
2008 2008 ElectionElection
*Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys prior to March 2010. Based on research for Citizen Opinion. Data reflects full sample.
National economic indicator: cool ratings on the rise
Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. The state of the economy…
Net Difference
-65 -71 -70 -70 -58 -50 -50 -48-40 -45 -59-45 -37-57-70 -50-52 -43 -42 -52
83,000 83,000 New JobsNew Jobs
71,000 71,000 New JobsNew Jobs
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 21
34
25 26 2628
2720
2225
35
3640 38
4543
40
35
3532
33 27
3129
37
Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10
At bottom Already improving Will get worse
*Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys prior to March 2010. Based on research for Citizen Opinion. Data reflects full sample.
Real economic indicator: fewer believe economy improving
Now, thinking about the nation’s economy, do you believe the economy has already bottomed out and is starting to improve, is at the bottom but is not yet getting any better or has not yet bottomed out and will still get worse?
Total Seen Worst: 60
39,000 New 39,000 New JobsJobs
First net job First net job growth: 14,000 growth: 14,000
New JobsNew Jobs208,000 208,000
New JobsNew Jobs
290,000 290,000 New JobsNew Jobs
431,000 431,000 New JobsNew Jobs
83,000 83,000 New JobsNew Jobs
71,000 71,000 New JobsNew Jobs
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 22
3639
37 3841
22
2724
2628
4043
37
4239
44
38
28
22
1916
1916
13
Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10
Reduced wages or hours Lost job
Lost health insurance Fallen behind on mortgage
Real economic indicators: negative indicators rise, jump in foreclosures
I'm going to read you a list of economic experiences some people have recently had. For each one, please tell me if you have directly experienced this in the last year, if your family has directly experienced this in the last year, or if someone you know well, like a friend, neighbor or co-worker, has experienced this or if no one you know well has experienced it.
First net job First net job growth: 14,000 growth: 14,000
New JobsNew Jobs39,000 39,000
New JobsNew Jobs
208,000 208,000 New JobsNew Jobs 290,000 290,000
New JobsNew Jobs
*Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys prior to March 2010. Based on research for Citizen Opinion. Data reflects the total of those who have felt a personal impact of an impact on someone in their family. Data reflects full sample.
431,000 431,000 New JobsNew Jobs
83,000 83,000 New JobsNew Jobs 71,000 71,000
New JobsNew Jobs
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 23
39
44
3740
2730 30
32 31 30
1719
23
48
40
46
32
42
36
44
38
16
17
22
Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10
Reduced wages or hours Lost job
Lost health insurance Fallen behind on mortgage
Recession real indicators for white non-collegeI'm going to read you a list of economic experiences some people have recently had. For each one, please tell me if you have directly experienced this in the last year, if your family has directly experienced this in the last year, or if someone you know well, like a friend, neighbor or co-worker, has experienced this or if no one you know well has experienced it.
First net job First net job growth: 14,000 growth: 14,000
New JobsNew Jobs
230,000 230,000 New JobsNew Jobs 290,000 290,000
New JobsNew Jobs39,000 39,000
New JobsNew Jobs
*Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys prior to March 2010. Based on research for Citizen Opinion. Data reflects the total of those who have felt a personal impact of an impact on someone in their family. Data reflects full sample.
431,000 431,000 New JobsNew Jobs
83,000 83,000 New JobsNew Jobs 71,000 71,000
New JobsNew Jobs
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 24
40
46
2730 30
28
21
16
26
46
40
44
39
4343
38
43
4042
26 27
15
1720
Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10
Reduced wages or hours Lost job
Lost health insurance Fallen behind on mortgage
Recession real indicators: unmarried women, minority and youngI'm going to read you a list of economic experiences some people have recently had. For each one, please tell me if you have directly experienced this in the last year, if your family has directly experienced this in the last year, or if someone you know well, like a friend, neighbor or co-worker, has experienced this or if no one you know well has experienced it.
First net job First net job growth: 14,000 growth: 14,000
New JobsNew Jobs
208,000 208,000 New JobsNew Jobs 290,000 290,000
New JobsNew Jobs39,000 39,000 New JobsNew Jobs
*Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys prior to March 2010. Based on research for Citizen Opinion. Data reflects the total of those who have felt a personal impact of an impact on someone in their family. The new American electorate refers to unmarried women, respondents under the age of 30, and minorities. Data reflects full sample.
431,000 431,000 New JobsNew Jobs
83,000 83,000 New JobsNew Jobs 71,000 71,000
New JobsNew Jobs
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 25
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 25 |
Jobs and deficits
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 26
25
42
68
36
2144
51
29
55
73
32
55
1421
41
59
Invest Cuts Invest Cuts Invest Cuts Invest Cuts
First statement strongly Second statement strongly
Total RepublicansDemocrats Independents
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Deficit higher priority than investment (without description)
First Statement: Reducing the deficit is important to our future, but even more important is new investment to foster new skills and industries.
Second Statement: Reducing the deficit is so important to our future that we must proceed now to make bold cuts in spending.
+9 +39 +52+19
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 27
30
52
71
4740
40
42
26
4854
37
55
2717
33
45
Both Cuts Both Cuts Both Cuts Both Cuts
First statement strongly Second statement strongly
Total RepublicansDemocrats Independents
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Deficit-investment combined over just spending cuts
First Statement: Investing to foster new skills and industries is so important to our future we must BOTH make key investments and reduce the deficit over time.
Second Statement: Reducing the deficit is so important to our future that we must proceed now to make bold cuts in spending.
+10 +45 +14+1
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 28
42
52 4858
30
42 4637
3437 33 36
Invest/Cuts Cuts Invest/Cuts Cuts Invest/Cuts Cuts
First statement strongly Second statement strongly
Total Non College Total College
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
More educated favor dual approach to recovery than just deficit focus
First Statement: Investing to foster new skills and industries is so important to our future we must BOTH make key investments and reduce the deficit over time.
Second Statement: Reducing the deficit is so important to our future that we must proceed now to make bold cuts in spending.
+10 +2 +21
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 29
15
3341
3126
31
47 44 4752
14
2619
3731
27
Higher Lower Higher Lower Higher Lower Higher Lower
First statement strongly Second statement strongly
Total RepublicansDemocrats Independents
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
First Statement: Moving now to reduce the deficit will mean higher unemployment.
Second Statement: Moving now to reduce the deficit will mean lower unemployment.
+14 +3 +26+16
Deficit reduction impacts employment
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 30
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 30 |
Investment as important as debt to future
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 31
8
32
47
36
28
30
5
0 25 50
President Obama’s economic recovery or stimulus plan
The bailouts of the big banks and auto industry
Lobbyists and special interests puttingunneeded spending in the budget
The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
The economic recession that cut tax revenue and required support for the unemployed
What caused debt: wars and bailouts
The Bush tax cuts for corporationsand top earners
The cost of the Medicare PrescriptionDrug benefit
Now I’d like to read you a list of things that some people say have caused the national deficit to grow over the past several years. After I read this list, please tell me which TWO, in your opinion, are most responsible for the federal deficit growing significantly over the past several years.
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 32
16
26
34
29
21
25
12
0 25
When you think about a large federal deficit, which TWO of the following consequences do you worry about the most?
The next generation being left to pay the bills
Inability of Social Security to payfuture benefits
Cutbacks of key government serviceslike teachers, building and maintaininghighways, and transportation
An economy weighed down by debtthat can’t grow and create jobs
China will be stronger than US
Why debt a problem? Economy and Social Security
A lack of credit for the consumers and businesses that can’t borrow and invest
Interest payments in the budget crowding out other spending
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 33
37
48
74
44
2638
45
22
49
67
38
59
1718
35
50
Investment Cut services Investment Cut services Investment Cut services Investment Cut services
First statement strongly Second statement strongly
Total RepublicansDemocrats Independents
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
For economy: investment at parity with major cuts
First Statement: While we need a plan for deficit reduction, our highest priority should be investment and tax credits for education, science and technology, and renewable energy in order to build a new foundation for economic growth that raises the revenue to reduce the deficit in the long-run.
Second Statement: We need to make major cuts in the deficit our highest priority because by cutting our debt, American companies and the U.S. economy will be stronger and more competitive.
+3 +52 +41+5
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 34
32
48
82
38
21
47
47
14
55
74
14
75
41
65
40
10
Invest Cut Invest Cut Invest Cut Invest Cut
First statement strongly Second statement strongly
Total RepublicansDemocrats Independents
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Country on track: Investment equal to cutting spending and taxes
First Statement: To get our country back on track, we must invest in education, science, technology, and in new industries like renewable energy that will create new jobs, while also working to reduce the federal deficit each year.
Second Statement: To get our country back on track, we must cut the federal deficit by cutting spending and taxes so businesses can prosper and the private sector can start creating jobs.
+1 +68 +53+17
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 35
30
48
77
38
2751
48
19
6068
18
64
38
51
37
12
Invest Cuts Invest Cuts Invest Cuts Invest Cuts
First statement strongly Second statement strongly
Total RepublicansDemocrats Independents
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
On future: Investment equal to deficit reduction
First Statement: We should be making investments vital to our future by spending on education and training, research and development, and a modern infrastructure for the 21st century.
Second Statement: We need to catch up with a changing world, but government spending is out of control and we need to reduce the deficit boldly so that America can compete in a very challenging 21st century.
Tied +58 +41+22
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 36
26
46
68
383144
50
26
5867
15
53
32
52
38
21
Invest/Cuts Cuts Invest/Cuts Cuts Invest/Cuts Cuts Invest/Cuts Cuts
First statement strongly Second statement strongly
Total RepublicansDemocrats Independents
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
No more support for investment if coupled with deficit reduction
First Statement: We need to reduce deficits over time, while making investments vital to our future by spending on education, training, research, and a modern infrastructure for the 21st century.
Second Statement: We need to catch up with a changing world, but government spending is out of control and we need to reduce the deficit boldly so that America can compete in a very challenging 21st century.
+4 +42 +36+20
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 37
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 37 |
Big narratives about economic future
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 38
29
51
52
54
60
32
30
29
0 25 50 75
Much more positive
Now I’m going to read you some things a leader is saying about government investment, the economy and deficits. Please tell me if each of this leader’s statements makes you much more positive, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, no more positive, or more negative about this leader?
When the economy crashed, banks and consumers held on for dear life – and only the government could get the economy moving… We need to act now to put people to work… We need government investment in jobs, education and infrastructure in the short term while being mindful of reducing the deficit over the long-term
Note: See full statements text on the next two slides.
Summary: Investment framework
We have a budget deficit, but the fact is we also have a massive publicinvestment deficit… we need to rebuild the infrastructure that is vital to our economy. This will create jobs… and generate revenues that can help pay down the budget deficit.
A recovery to the old economy isn’t possible or desirable… We have to build a new economy on a new foundation, by investing in education and training in 21st century infrastructure… the new green industrial revolution, and balancing our trade so we make products and create jobs in America.
Reducing the deficit is very important to our future economy and preserving critical public benefits… Restore the higher tax rates for those earning over 250 thousand dollars a year, and for excessive CEO bonuses, institute a small transaction tax on stock trades, and wipe out lobbyist-created special corporate subsidies...
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 39
We have a budget deficit, but the fact is we also have a massive public investment deficit – in roads, sewers, schools, trains, renewable energy, and other basic parts of our communities. To be competitive, we need to rebuild the infrastructure that is vital to our economy. This will create jobs, help business compete, improve our communities and generate revenues to help pay down the budget deficit.
Investment deficit
30
60
Total morepositive
Much morepositive
Strongest investment messages: modernizing infrastructureNow I’m going to read you some things a leader is saying about government investment, the economy and deficits. Please tell me if each of this leader’s statements makes you much more positive, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, no more positive, or more negative about this leader?
32
54
Total morepositive
Much morepositive
A recovery to the old economy isn’t possible or desirable. That economy was based on personal debt, the housing bubble, trade deficits, stagnant wages, and a growing gap between CEOs and the rich, and everyone else. We have to build an economy on a new foundation, by investing in education and training in 21st century infrastructure, capturing a lead role in the new green industrial revolution, and balancing our trade so we make products and create jobs in America.
New foundation
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 40
When the economy crashed, banks and business and consumers held on for dear life – and only the government could get the economy moving, just as FDR had done in the Great Depression. And it is still true, with unemployment over 9 percent. We need to act now to put people to work and help those who have lost their jobs through no fault of their own. We need government investment in jobs, education, and infrastructure in the short-term, while being mindful of reducing the deficit over the long-term.
FDR and the Great Depression
Progressive taxes, historical context also earn majority positive feelingsNow I’m going to read you some things a leader is saying about government investment, the economy and deficits. Please tell me if each of this leader’s statements makes you much more positive, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, no more positive, or more negative about this leader?
29
51
Total morepositive
Much morepositive
Reducing the deficit is very important to our future economy and preserving critical public benefits for ordinary people, like teachers and police, Social Security and Medicare. We can reduce the deficit by cleaning up what got us in this mess. Restore the higher tax rates for those earning over 250 thousand dollars a year and for excessive CEO bonuses, institute a small transaction tax on stock trades, and wipe out the lobbyist-created special corporate interest subsidies. That is the right way for us.
Progressive deficit reduction
29
52
Total morepositive
Much morepositive
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 41
28
22
14
26
54
20
19
51
26
44
79
36
44
75
35
47
79
49
51
79
48
50
16
9
0 25 50 75
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Much more positive
Now I’m going to read you some things a leader is saying about government investment, the economy and deficits. Please tell me if each of this leader’s statements makes you much more positive, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, no more positive, or more negative about this leader?
FDR and the Great Depression
Democrats energized by investment narrative
Investment deficit
New foundation
Progressive deficit reduction
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 42
24
32
47
53
54
31
37
12
0 25 50 75
Much more positive
Now I’m going to read you some things a leader is saying about deficits, government spending, and the economy. Please tell me if each of this leader’s statements makes you much more positive, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, no more positive, or more negative about this leader?
China owns more of our debt than anyone and our finances risk being overextended. We need to aggressively pay down the debt by spending less on government programs across the board, even on popular programs such as Social Security.
Note: See full statements text on the next two slides.
Deficit narratives
The budget deficit has ballooned in the last several years because of bailouts… and a large government stimulus program. If we do not begin to bring the deficit down by a large amount… we risk serious financial instability like in California and Greece.
We should cut spending across the board except for the military. We should also sustain the Bush tax cuts and cut taxes on businesses. That will stimulate private business to create the new jobs that will generate the revenue to pay for the tax cuts.
… The best way to revive the economy is to reduce government spending, cut taxes and leave the private sector to create jobs. Government should have as small a role as possible in our economy, so we need to spend less on programs to revive the economy.
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 43
We cannot grow the economy by growing government. The best way to revive the economy is to reduce government spending, cut taxes and leave the private sector to create jobs. Government should have as small as role as possible in our economy, so we need to spend less on programs to revive the economy.
Reduce government’s role
We cannot afford more government giveaways to special interests. The budget deficit has ballooned in the last several years because of bailouts for banks and auto companies and a large government stimulus program. If we do not begin to bring the deficit down by a large amount quickly, we risk serious financial instability like in California and Greece.
Blame bailouts
37
54
Total morepositive
Much morepositive
Top deficit messages: reducing government role, blame bailoutsNow I’m going to read you some things a leader is saying about government investment, the economy and deficits. Please tell me if each of this leader’s statements makes you much more positive, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, no more positive, or more negative about this leader?
31
53
Total morepositive
Much morepositive
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 44
The exploding federal budget deficit is making the U.S. lag in this global economy. China owns more of our debt than anyone and our finances are at risk from being so overextended. We need to aggressively pay down our debt by spending less on government programs across the board, even on popular programs such as Social Security.
Cut government programs
We can’t afford growing federal deficits. So we should cut spending across the board except for the military. We should also sustain the Bush tax cuts and cut taxes on businesses. That will stimulate private business to create the new jobs that will generate the revenue to pay for the tax cuts.
Tax cuts
24
47
Total morepositive
Much morepositive
Tax cuts, across-the-board spending cuts earn lowest ratingsNow I’m going to read you some things a leader is saying about government investment, the economy and deficits. Please tell me if each of this leader’s statements makes you much more positive, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, no more positive, or more negative about this leader?
12
32
Total morepositive
Much morepositive
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 45
14
24
46
40
11
58
44
12
41
36
19
66
48
28
68
62
32
75
60
30
10
5
41
18
0 25 50 75
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Much more positiveBar 4Bar 5Bar 6
Now I’m going to read you some things a leader is saying about government investment, the economy and deficits. Please tell me if each of this leader’s statements makes you much more positive, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, no more positive, or more negative about this leader?
Cut governmentprograms
Republican and independents more intense with spending frames
Reduce government’srole
Blame bailouts
Tax cuts
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 46
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 46 |
Engaging on investment shifts support
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 47
41
42
5147 48
3235
38
Invest Cuts Invest Cuts
First statement strongly Second statement strongly
Voters shift toward investment as strategy for recovery
+1+9
First Statement: Reducing the deficit is important to our future, but even more important is new investment to foster new skills and industries.
Second Statement: Reducing the deficit is so important to our future that we must proceed now to make bold cuts in spending.
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Initial Follow-up
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 48
25
14 15
6876
36 36
21 2444
62
2919
55 55
73
27
5955 59
45
2111
73
Invest Cuts Invest Cuts Invest Cuts Invest Cuts Invest Cuts Invest Cuts
First statement strongly Second statement strongly
Democrats Independents
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Shift entirely driven by movement among Democrats
Net Shift: +18 Net Shift: +3Net Shift: 0
Republicans
First Statement: Reducing the deficit is important to our future, but even more important is new investment to foster new skills and industries.
Second Statement: Reducing the deficit is so important to our future that we must proceed now to make bold cuts in spending.
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 49
33
52
4249 48
3637 37
Both Cuts Both Cuts
First statement strongly Second statement strongly
But combined approach doesn’t gain after messaging
+1+10
Second Statement: Reducing the deficit is so important to our future that we must proceed now to make bold cuts in spending.
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Initial Follow-up
First Statement: Investing to foster new skills and industries is so important to our future we must BOTH make key investments and reduce the deficit over time.
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 50
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 50 |
The politics of investment
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 51
58
4138
55
31
49
28
43
Invest Cuts Invest Cuts
First statement strongly Second statement strongly
RAE Non-RAE
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
RAE favors investment in a modern economy of the 21st century
First Statement: We should be making investments vital to our future by spending on education and training, research and development, and a modern infrastructure for the 21st century.
Second Statement: We need to catch up with a changing world, but government spending is out of control and we need to reduce the deficit boldly so that America can compete in a very challenging 21st century.
+20 +14
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 52
58
4138
53
50
35
47
30
Invest Cuts Invest Cuts
First statement strongly Second statement strongly
RAE Non-RAE
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
RAE favors investment in science, technology and renewable energy
+12
First Statement: To get our country back on track, we must invest in education, science, technology, and in new industries like renewable energy that will create new jobs, while also working to reduce the federal deficit each year.
Second Statement: To get our country back on track, we must cut the federal deficit by cutting spending and taxes so businesses can prosper and the private sector can start creating jobs.
+20
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 53
4839
4755
3630
45
35
Invest Cuts Invest Cuts
First statement strongly Second statement strongly
RAE Non-RAE
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
RAE split on investment versus bold spending cuts
First Statement: Reducing the deficit is important to our future, but even more important is new investment to foster new skills and industries.
Second Statement: Reducing the deficit is so important to our future that we must proceed now to make bold cuts in spending.
+1 +16
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 54
16
68
28
70
28
5862
18
No Cuts Cuts No Cuts Cuts
First statement strongly Second statement strongly
Battleground: Social Security and Medicare untouchable
+42+40
First Statement: The federal deficit is a big national problem but we should not make major spending cuts in Social Security and Medicare.
Second Statement: The federal deficit is such a national problem that we have to cut spending broadly, including possible future cuts to Social Security and Medicare spending.
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Total Vulnerable Dem. *Note: The ‘Vulnerable Dem’ sample is of voters from districts deemed ‘vulnerable’ in the congressional battleground that are held by Democratic incumbents.
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 55
55
60
45
48
38
42
28
19
25
16
24
16
46
36
42
38
53
22
21
31
30
39
40
55
56
59
65
67
62
53
55
39
35
35
30
31
7
19
12
15
1270
76
65
100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100
Strongly oppose Strongly favor
Battleground: Deficit priorities match likely votersNow I'd like to read you a list of proposals to help close the federal budget deficit. After I read each item, please tell me whether you FAVOR or OPPOSE that proposal.
Let Bush tax cuts for those making over 250k expire
Eliminate tax breaks and subsidies for corporations
Create a tax on excessive Wall Street bank profits
Lift Social Security payroll tax cap on incomes higher than 107k
Eliminate tax breaks for corporations that outsource jobs
Create half-cent tax on stock transactions
Create carbon tax for utilities and manufacturing
Increase Medicare age from 65 to 67
Create a 3 percent federal sales tax
Raise retirement age for Social Security to 70
Eliminate Medicare and create 11k annual voucher
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 56
41
42
51
4147
3132
39
Invest Cuts Invest Cuts
First statement strongly Second statement strongly
Battleground: slight preference for spending cuts
+9
Vulnerable Dem.* Note: The ‘Vulnerable Dem’ sample is of voters from districts deemed ‘vulnerable’ in the congressional battleground that are held by Democratic incumbents.
Total
+6
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
First Statement: Reducing the deficit is important to our future, but even more important is new investment to foster new skills and industries.
Second Statement: Reducing the deficit is so important to our future that we must proceed now to make bold cuts in spending.
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 57
33
52
42 42
51
28
37 38
Both Cuts Both Cuts
First statement strongly Second statement strongly
Battleground: bold cuts are preferred
+10
Vulnerable Dem.* Note: The ‘Vulnerable Dem’ sample is of voters from districts deemed ‘vulnerable’ in the congressional battleground that are held by Democratic incumbents.
Total
+9
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
First Statement: Investing to foster new skills and industries is so important to our future we must BOTH make key investments and reduce the deficit over time.
Second Statement: Reducing the deficit is so important to our future that we must proceed now to make bold cuts in spending.
April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 58
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 58 |
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