Dr joe brics draftDemographic transition and post – transition challenges in BRICS countries (With specific reference to population ageing, mortality trends, urbanization and migration)

Partners in Population and Development (PPD)

Demographic transition and post – transition challenges in BRICS countries

(With specific reference to population ageing, mortality trends, urbanization and migration

Monday March 3, 2014 (09.00AM- 13.00)

(Discussant) Joe Thomas, PhD

Executive Director, PPD


Outline

• Introduction

• Overall demographic profile of BRICS countries

• Population policies

• Certain common policy and program challenges


Introductory notes

• An important initiative. (Health Diplomacy?)

• Methods- of discussion

• Population data in public domain- un even

• Delegates presentation structure and analysis also varied



Birth Rate (BR) and Death rate(DR)

• Death rate decreased in India and Brazil

• Birth rate decreased in every country except Russia

• Russia is the only country where birth and death both rate increased.

• Birth rate is still very high in India Brazil and SA

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

India (BR)

Brazil(BR)

Russia(BR)

China(BR)

SA (BR)

India (DR)

Brazil(DR)

Russia(DR)

China(DR)

SA(DR)

Birth rate (BR) and Death rate(DR) from 2000-2012

2012

2000

Birth rate (crude birth rate):Average annual number of births during a year per 1,000 population at midyear Death rate (crude death rate):Average annual number of deaths during a year per 1,000 population at midyear;


Unmet need, CPR and Adolescent Fertility

6

21

2 14

77 73

56

87

60 72

26 36

9

53

0

20

40

60

80

100

Brazil Russia India China South Africa

Unmet need , CPR and Adoloscent

fertility rate

Unmet need CPR Adolescent fertility rate

• Unmet need is higher and CPR is lower in India and SA. Statistics for unmet need was not available for Russia

• Adolescent pregnancy is very high in Brazil and South Africa

Unmet need: Women with an unmet need for family planning are women aged 15 to 49, married or in union, who are fecund and sexually active but are not using any method of CPR: Contraceptive prevalence rate is the percentage of women who are practicing, or whose sexual partners are practicing, any form of contraception.; usually measured for married women ages 15-49 Adolescent Fertility rate: Adolescent fertility rate is the number of births per 1,000 women ages 15-19.


Net Migration rate

(Difference between the number of persons entering and leaving a country during the year per 1,000 persons (based on midyear population).

-0,17

1,69

-0,05 -0,33

-6,24 -7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3


Net Migration/1000 pop

• Only Russia experience in migration

• Out migration is high is SA

• Though the rate shows low in the case of India and China, the actual number of out migration is vast due to their large number of population

• Gender segregated migration data is not available


Urbanization

0

20

40

60

80

100


87%

73.8%

31.3%

50.6% 62%

Rate of Urbanization in BRICS countries

• All the countries are experiencing rapid urbanization

• More than 70% population in Russia and brazil lives in urban areas.

• Rapid growth of urbanization is an overall challenge for the countries

Urbanization is considered here urban population,( percentage of the total population living in urban areas, as defined by the country) and the rate of urbanization(the projected average rate of change of the size of the urban population over the given period of time.


Gender Inequality index (GII)

0,44

0,31

0,61

0,21

0,46

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8

Brazil

Russia

India

China

South Africa

Gender Inequality Index (GII) • China and Russia

performed much better in

comparison to the rest in

GII index.

Here the inequality measured with the combined result of inequality on reproductive health, empowerment and the labour market. To calculate this inequality MMR , Adolescent fertility rate, Female and male population with at least secondary level, Female and male shares for parliamentary seats , Female and male labour force participation rate The index shows the loss in potential human development due to inequality between female and male achievements in these dimensions. It varies between 0, where women and men fare equally, and 1, where either gender fares as poorly as possible in all measured dimensions. The country perform closure to 0, the closure they are in diminishing inequalities


Trend of IMR and MMR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Trend of IMR

India

Brazil

Russia

China

SA

200

56 34 37

300

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

India Brazil Russia China SA

Status of MMR 2008-2010

2008

2010

IMR: Number of deaths of infants under one year old in a given year per 1,000 live births in the same year MMR: The maternal mortality rate (MMR) is the annual number of female deaths per 100,000 live births from any cause related to or aggravated by pregnancy or its management (excluding accidental or incidental causes). The MMR includes deaths during pregnancy,

childbirth, or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy, irrespective of the duration and site of the pregnancy, for a spec ified year.


Population Policy Respone

• India: In 1952 India adopted Population policy for the first time, in 2000 India reviewed the population policy.

• China: In 1970 Chinese Government issued population policy, in 1979 the country adopted one child policy and in 2002 the country adopted population policy in the form of population and family planning law, marriage law and in 2013 radical revision in family care law.

• South Africa: South Africa adopted population policy in 1998

• Brazil: In 2007, the Federal Government launched its “National Family Planning Policy”


• Monitoring the population dynamics of the BRICS countries.

• Monitoring the changing service needs/ profile of the national family planning programs

• Shared technical support among the BRICS countries to review their population policy in the post ICPD and MDG framework

• Explore the needs and opportunities for the sustainable MC exchange

• Potential of BRICS countries to influence the global agenda on RH and population development.

Policy and program challenges


Challenges and opportunities

• International obligation of member countries (Signatory to population related global agreements)

• Need for specific data/ Gender disaggregated data, dialogue and in-depth analysis

• Post MDG/ ICPD challenges and opportunities, mid- term policy revision !?

• Inequity (urban- rural)

• Urbanization

• Ageing

• SRHR needs of adolescents and young people

• Migration and Immigration (Un documented migrants- skilled migrants. Gender issues

• Changing Family planning needs (women’s fertility- higher/lower- policy)

• Families – as a the basic social unit- under duress (Policy response)

• Dealing with the challenge of “the ideology of male superiority”


THANK YOU

PPD @20 years PPDs 20th anniversary

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Dr joe brics draftDemographic transition and post – transition challenges in BRICS countries (With specific reference to population ageing, mortality trends, urbanization and migration)