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Coming to Grips with Political Bias
Eric Merkley
Ph.D. CandidateDepartment of Political ScienceUniversity of British Columbia
America has a problem
America has a problem
1) Rejection of traditional institutions (e.g. mass media)
America has a problem
1) Rejection of traditional institutions (e.g. mass media)
2) Rise of misinformation
6
7
America has a problem
1) Rejection of traditional institutions (e.g. mass media)
2) Rise of misinformation
3) Rise of news/social media echo chambers
America has a problem
1) Rejection of traditional institutions (e.g. mass media)
2) Rise of misinformation
3) Rise of news/social media echo chambers
4) Rejection of expertise
Issue Experts (%) U.S. Adults (%) Gap (%)
GMOs are safe 88 37 51
Favor nuclear power 65 45 20
Mandate childhood vaccinations 86 68 18
Climate change is real and man-
made
87 50 37
Carbon tax > car standards 92 22 70
Buy American => employment 11 76 65
NAFTA increased welfare 95 46 49
Changes in gas prices due to
market forces
92 54 38
Sources: Pew Research (2015); Sapienza and Zingales (2013). Science experts
are AAAS members, economists are IGM panel members
Why is this happening?
Disconfirmation bias:
Tendency to reject information incongruent with
group goals
Confirmation bias:
Tendency to seek out and accept information
congruent with group goals
(Strickland, Taber, & Lodge 2011)
Driven by affect – the stronger the likes and
dislikes one has in the political environment, the
stronger the tendency towards bias.
Not a conscious process.
Likes and dislikes in politics are largely a function of
our social identities.
(Taber & Lodge 2014)
What about human reason?
Some people can apply reason to politics even
when they have strong social identities.
The problem is one of motivation.
Directional goals dominate accuracy goals in
mass democratic politics.
Bias is (boundedly) rational
Bias impacts our judgment across more strains of
our lives than politics.
19
NowThen
20
What most people think about Tom
Brady
21
What I think about Tom Brady
But bias is most strongly prevalent in our political
lives and leads to some pretty peculiar political
behaviour
Source: Pew Research Centre
-23
+27
+9
Source: Gallup
Source: YouGov
Feelings Towards Godfather’s Pizza
Source: The Monkey Cage
Partisanship is a helluva drug
Okay, but why are things getting worse?
Source: Carroll et al. (2016)
Source: Carroll et al. (2016)
Source: Pew Research Centre
Source: Abramowitz and Weber (2016)
2008 20101960
Proportion Displeased by Inter-Party Marriage
Iyengar et al. (2012)
What about Canada?
More Right-Wing
More Left-WingSource: Adapted from Cochrane (2008)
and the Comparative Manifesto Project
72 74 79/80 84 88 93 97 00 04 06 08
Election
More Right-Wing
More Left-WingSource: Adapted from Cochrane (2008)
and the Comparative Manifesto Project
72 74 79/80 84 88 93 97 00 04 06 08
Election
More Right-Wing
More Left-WingSource: Adapted from Cochrane (2008)
and the Comparative Manifesto Project
72 74 79/80 84 88 93 97 00 04 06 08
Election
More Right-Wing
More Left-WingSource: Adapted from Cochrane (2008)
and the Comparative Manifesto Project
72 74 79/80 84 88 93 97 00 04 06 08
Election
In the United States…
Source: Abramowitz
and Weber (2016)
46
-0.6
0
0.6
Positive (+) Negative (-)
47
-0.6
0
0.6
Positive (+) Negative (-)
Opinion Change about
Canada’s Economy
48
-0.6
0
0.6
Positive (+) Negative (-)
Opinion Change about
Canada’s Economy
49
-0.6
0
0.6
Positive (+) Negative (-)
Opinion Change about
Canada’s Economy
50
-0.6
0
0.6
Positive (+) Negative (-)
Opinion Change about
Canada’s Economy
52% of Canadians think GMOs are bad for your health
47% of Canadians think the science of climate change is still unclear
19% of Canadians think there is a link between autism and vaccines
Source: Leger (2017)
What can be done?
Institutional change
1) Deliberative democracy (Habermas 1996; Warren 1996, 2017)
2) Journalistic norms (Bennett 1988)
Social change
1) Changes in persuasion tactics (i.e. the message matters)
Moral reframing (Feinberg and Willer 2012)
Feinberg and Willer (2012)
Social change
1) Changes in persuasion tactics (i.e. the message matters)
Moral reframing (Feinberg & Willer 2012)
Bridging arguments(Dixon, Hmielowski, & Ma 2012)
Dixon, Hmielowski, and Ma (2012)
2) Building bridges across the political divide(i.e. the messenger matters)
Importance of trust(Lupia & McCubbins 1998)
And affect (Lodge & Taber 2014)
Climate Polarization in United States
Source: Merkley & Stecula (2016)
3) Recognize your own biases and engage with others in good faith
Beware of the backfire effect (Nyhan & Reifler 2010)
![[Keynote] "Share Everything" - Ryan Merkley](https://img.pdfslide.net/doc/110x75/547bb389b47959a9098b4dcd/keynote-share-everything-ryan-merkley.jpg)
