Food Security Situation in East and Southern Africa

FOOD SECURITY SITUATION IN THE COMESA REGION

16th September, 2013

Addis Ababa

Presentation by

Chris Manyamba & Sheryl Hendriks

Institute for Food, Nutrition and Well

Being, University of Pretoria

COMESA FIFTH JOINT TECHNICAL COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE, ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES MEETING

Introduction-food security defined 1996 World Food Summit defined food security as: • When “all people, at all times, have physical and economic access

to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy life”

This implies: • Production of enough food • Access, acquisition and entitlement to purchase food • That food is safe to consume • Utilisation is efficient • Preferences and cultural prohibitions are met

Absence of these elements leads to food insecurity

Introduction • Food security and nutrition are

high on the political agenda at the global, regional and national levels.

• Global agenda: Group of 20 and (G-20); Rio+20, G8

• Continental: Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Programme (CAADP)

• National: Policies and strategies

• 870 million -undernourished in the period 2010–12.

• 852 million in developing countries, children ~15% of the population).

• 200 million children are stunted

Background

• Food Security-priority policy issue in all COMESA member states.

• Chapter 18 of the COMESA Treaty (1994).

• Recently, human rights approach by a number of governments-1948 UN Declaration of Human Rights

• COMESA region –marred with poor development indicators (ReSAKSS, 2013) – Poverty Rates

• 34% (Southern)

• 37% (Eastern )

– AgGDP growth • 4.2 % (Eastern Africa)

• 4.6% (Southern Africa)

• Hunger is still a threat in COMESA – Most countries’ intake is less than the

recommended Amount of 2100 calories/day (RESAKSS-ECA, 2011).

• CAADP Framework for African Food Security (FAFS) –helping African countries reach a higher path of economic growth through agriculture-led development

– Pillar 3. Increase Food Supply, Reduce Hunger and Improve Responses to

Food Emergency Crises

Progress towards Millennium Development Goal 1

Target already met or expected to be met by 2015 or prevalence <5%

Progress insufficient to reach the target if prevailing trends persist

No progress or deterioration

Missing or insufficient data

Not assessed

Food Balance Sheet-total cereals (as of June 2013) …..significant uncovered deficit in most member states.

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Zimbabwe

Zambia

Uganda

Tanzania

Swaziland

Sudan

Rwanda

Mauritius

Malawi

Madagascar

Kenya

Ethiopia

Eritrea

DRC

Djibouti

Comoros

Burundi

Domestic Availability Import Requirement

Source: Own Calculations from FAOSTAT 2013.

Estimated Numbers-Food Insecure (2012) ……..a large proportion of the population remain food insecure

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

Sudan

Ethiopia

South Sudan (not yet COMESA…

Somalia (non COMESA member)

Kenya

Burundi

Zimbabwe

Malawi

Mozambique (Non COMESA member)

Swaziland

Zambia

4.6

3.2

2.8

2.51

2.4

1.7

1.67

1.63

0.26

0.115

0.062

Population in millions

Estimated No. of Food Insecure Persons-2012

Prevalence of under nutrition in children under the age of five years (%) Decreasing child mortality and improving maternal health depend heavily on reducing malnutrition, which is responsible, directly or indirectly.

Source of data: Measure DHS. ICF International, 2012. MEASURE DHS, WHO (2013)

UNDERWEIGHT Low weight for age • Any protein-energy malnutrition • reflect the long-term health and

nutritional experience of the child • Influenced by both

– the height of the child (height-for-age)

– and his or her weight (weight-for-height)

STUNTING • Low height for age,

• Chronic malnutrition

• Effects on children

– delayed motor development,

– impaired cognitive function

– poor school performance.

WASTING • Very low weight for

height

• Severe acute malnutrition

• visible severe wasting

• Predictor of child mortality

Prevalence of under nutrition in children under the age of five years (%)

28.8

57.7

5.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Underweight Stunting Wasting

Pe

rcen

tage

Burundi DHS-2010

25.1

45.5

10

0

10

20

30

40

50


Pe

rce

nta

ge

DRC DHS-2007

19.5

48.3

8.3

17.5

51.1

4.7 11.4

44.2

2.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Per

cen

tage

Rwanda DHS

2000 2005 2010

18.4

44.8

4.9

15.9

38.1

6.1

13.8

33.4

4.7

0

10

20

30

40

50


Per

cen

tage

Uganda DHS

2000-01 2006 2011

Source: Own Calculations Measure DHS data

15.8

35.7

6

16.1

35.3

6.7

0

10

20

30

40


Per

cen

tage

Kenya DHS

2003 2008-09

41.2

57.7

12.2

32.9

50.8

12.2

28.7

44.4

9.7

0

20

40

60

80


Pe

rcen

tage

Ethiopia DHS

2000 2005 2011

33.8

42.9

14.9

0

10

20

30

40

50


Pe

rcen

tage

Eritrea DHS-2002

3.7

23.4

3 5

22.9

4.8 6

28.9

7.2

0

10

20

30

40


Per

cen

tage

Egypt DHS

2000 2005 2008



22.5

52.5

6

14.6

45.4

5.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Pe

rcen

tage

Zambia DHS

2001-02 2007

10.3

33.6

7.5

13.2

34.6

6.9 9.7

32

3

0

10

20

30

40


Pe

rcen

tage

Zimbabwe DHS

1999 2005-06 2010-11

20.3

54.6

6.6 17.3

52.5

6

12.8

47.1

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Per

cen

tage

Malawi DHS

2000 2004 2010

5.4

28.9

2.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


Per

cen

tage

Swaziland DHS-2006-7



48

58

33

0

20

40

60

80


Pe

rcen

tage

Sudan 2006

8

32

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


Per

cen

tage

Libya 2007

45

53

42

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Per

cen

tage

Djibouti 2006

3.7

23.4

3 5

22.9

4.8 6

28.9

7.2

0

10

20

30

40


Pe

rcen

tage

Egypt DHS

2000 2005 2008



6 6

2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7


Pe

rcen

tage

Seychelles 1987-88 17

13

18

0

5

10

15

20


Pe

rcen

tage

Mauritius 1995

36.2

53.2

14.6

50.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Per

cen

tage

Madagascar DHS

2003-04 2008-09


General Outlook -2013

East Africa • Staple food prices generally

followed their seasonal trends in July.

• Sorghum prices increased atypically in parts of Sudan and Ethiopia due to the recent late start of season in key surplus-producing areas.

• Maize prices were stable or decreased in Tanzania and Uganda, and increased in Rwanda.

Africa wide • Most countries have recorded

higher numbers of acutely food insecure populations

• ………..a much wider geographic distribution of affected areas compared to the past three years.

• Estimate- 7.70 million people in the region (excluding the DRC) are at risk of food insecurity.

Southern Africa • Drought in parts of southern Africa

has reduced maize production and contributed to very high prices

• Minimal food insecurity outcomes to prevail in the region

Source: FEWSNET, 2013

Generally…

Southern Africa • Malawi: Stressed food insecurity

in localized areas

• Zimbabwe: High food prices affect food insecurity

• Maize grain and meal prices continued to increase atypically in parts of Zambia and Malawi

• Madagascar: Prices will increase faster than usual during the lean season

.

• Burundi: Improved food access for poor households during the post-harvest period

• Djibouti: Improvements in acute food security likely

• Kenya: Food security deteriorating in the Southeast

• Rwanda: Household food stocks rapidly deplete

• South Sudan: Near-average national harvests remain likely

• Sudan: Expectations for near-average harvest remain

• Uganda: Green harvest to mitigate food insecurity

East Africa


Specific Country Outlook

….. as of July 2013

Source: FEWS NET/NOAA, FEWS NET, Dartmouth Flood Observatory

Most-likely food security outcomes, October to December, 2013 …………………..Pockets of acute food insecurity in areas that experienced reduced

harvests

Factors Likely to Impact on the Food Security Situation

Policy factors

– investment levels,

– import and export bans,

– market infrastructure level

– production incentives; acce finance;

Political and security factors

– as evidenced in the case o eastern part of the DemocRepublic of Congo

Agronomic factors

– -rainfall levels (weather conditions),

– crop varieties being adopte

– post harvest management practices,

– pests and disease outbreaks

Market factors

– input consumption (determ market prices and

– Output market prices,

– Market access,

– Market information

Cereals production in member states have increased over the past decade……with decreasing trends in some member states

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Per

cen

t ch

ange

Cereal production-% change

1990-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2005-2012

Actual yields for the main food crops (maize, rice, millet and sorghum) are well below what could be achieved in many regions……..


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Pe

rcen

t ch

ange

Cereal production-% change

1990-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2005-2012


….per capita production decreasing

Rapid population growth in member states , may outstrip cereal production…………..

y = 1E+07x + 2E+08 R² = 0.9628

y = 0.8486x + 140.4 R² = 0.7457

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Pe

r ca

pit

a p

rod

uct

ion

Po

pu

lati

on

in M

illio

ns

Per capita cereal production-COMESA

Total population COMESA per capita Cereal Production

Linear (Total population COMESA) Linear (per capita Cereal Production)


Food prices continue to rise in the Southern, Eastern and West Africa Regions……….

• International rice prices remained stable or decreased in July.

• Maize prices decreased considerably with improved harvest prospects in the United States.

• Wheat prices have continued to decrease due to improving growing conditions and harvest projections. Crude oil prices were stable.

• Source: FEWSNET, 2013

The food insecurity situation in the COMESA region is further demonstrated by the changes in the food prices in the member states………..

Southern Africa East Africa


Conclusions • Serious shortages in cereals (less than 70% shortfall) in 10 COMESA countries

(Food Balance Sheets, 2013)

• Around 20.9 million (see slide 7) people food insecure in the 11 countries (for which recent data is available) and 7.7M at risk of food insecurity (see slide 14)

• Progress towards MDG1 insufficient in a significant number of countries (slide 6)

• Drought and high inflation and localised conflict threaten food security in COMESA countries.

• Cereal per capita production is decreasing while population is increasing and outstripping supply. This has a direct impact in availability of food at household level

• High prevalence levels of malnourishment among children under-five years of age remain a public health problem in the COMESA region.

– Childhood stunting is over 40% countries and more than 30% in 12 countries (slides 8 – 12).

– Wasting places under-five children at substantial increased risk of severe acute malnutrition and death

Food Security Challenges Food Security Solutions

Inadequate food crisis management at all levels

Reduced risk and improved resilience

Inadequate food supply and marketing systems

Increased supply of affordable food

Lack of income opportunities Increased incomes for the poor

Hunger, malnutrition and poor diet quality

Improved nutrition

Pillar 3: Food Security

Recommendations

• Agricultural growth is particularly effective in reducing hunger and malnutrition.

• Comprehensive national food security strategies are urgently needed and need to include: – Programmes to increase food supply are urgently needed to provide for a

growing population

– Improving resilience of the food systems is essential

– Programmes to improve children’s nutrition are urgently needed – Scaling Up Nutrition Programmes play an important role.

• Promoting infrastructure development and harmonized policies – free flow of food staples from surplus to deficit areas driven primarily by price incentives

and market forces.

• Encourage and support women in agriculture (production inputs, access to markets, credit, extension services etc.)

Thank You

Christopher Manyamba Researcher: Institute for Food, Nutrition and Well-being, University of Pretoria, South Africa Prof Sheryl Hendriks Director: Institute for Food, Nutrition and Well-being, University of Pretoria, South Africa

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Food Security Situation in East and Southern Africa