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Everything you always wanted to know about Italian politics*
*But were afraid to ask
Italian MunicipalElections
June 2016
Results The Italian Municipal election system
envisages one ballot round in case no candidate reaches 50%+1 votes. The ballot round will take place on the 19th of June.
Results show that the tide is turning and Partito Democratico (the centre-left wing party supporting Mr Renzi) is having difficulties in keeping its
primacy in the public opinion. On the other hand, the Five-Stars Movement is the most popular party in Rome, proving its strengthening political position, and the second most voted party in Turin, where PartitoDemocratico is rooted and traditionally strong.
Ballots are taking place in Milan, Rome, Naples and Turin.
PrefaceThe current round of elections in
Italy appoints new mayors for 1,363 municipalities, including some of Italy’s largest and most
relevant cities: Milan, Rome, Naples and Turin. However, to reduce the
importance of these elections to the dimension of cities would be
terribly shortsighted: Italian politics are extraordinary complex
and always influenced by the changes of tide due to unexpected
or even “minor” events.
In this electoral round, the power of the current Prime Minister
Matteo Renzi has been challenged by his major opponent, the anti-
establishment Five Stars Movement. This has weakened
Renzi on the eve of another important political development: the Constitutional Referendum taking place in October 2016.
This analysis attempts to explain the complex environment that the Italian government is navigating, taking into account current and
potential future challenges, as well as the difficulties of a slow Italian
economic recovery.
City Candidate Party Results
Rome Virginia Raggi Five-Stars Movement
35.3%
Roberto Giachetti PartitoDemocratico
24.8%
Milan Giuseppe Sala PartitoDemocratico
41.7%
Stefano Parisi Centre-right coalition
40.8%
Naples Luigi De Magistris Left coalition 42.3%
Gianni Lettieri Centre-right coalition
24%
Turin Piero Fassino PartitoDemocratico
41.9%
Chiara Appendino Five Stars Movement
30.8%
© Brunswick 2016 | 3
A challenging political environmentMatteo Renzi loves comparing politics to the infamous Frank Underwood story in “House of Cards.” However, a more comparable example of Italian political debate is “Game of Thrones,” the ferocious story of the Seven Kingdoms and the struggle for the Crown. Actually, Italy and Westeros share many features: strong internal division; a continuous (but non-violent!) struggle between cities, regions, parties and politicians; an unpayable public debt; and an apparently unstoppable economic and political decline.
Metaphors aside, Italian politics are embarking on a period of change. On the one side, 41-year-old Matteo Renzi is trying to strengthen his power within the Partito Democratico (the centre-left wing party of which he is the Secretary) to push and complete his reformist agenda, as well as within
Italian governmental institutions, by surrounding his “throne” with loyal officials and top-level economic and political advisors.
On the other side, Mr Renzi’s political opponents are sharpening their knives to take over the government and set different agendas, using every occasion to challenge the Prime Minister’s power.
To judge these municipality elections as the prize of the struggle would be a mistake. The real battle is taking place in October this year, during the constitutional referendum dedicated to the extensive reforms that Mr Renzi, together with Maria Elena Boschi –who was considered the heroine of the Italian reformist trend by The Economist – has been promoting for the last two years.
Briefly, the referendum could change the institutional structure of Italian politics, reducing the scope of the Senate to a mere consultation chamber for subjects and decisions related to
regions, giving the entitlement of legislative power to the Chamber of Deputies.
According to detractors of such reform, this would constitute a dangerous reduction of institutional counterbalance to the Chamber’s prerogative, giving too much power to the parties with the political majority. According to supporters, there is no danger to the Italian republican structure, and this reform is going to smoothen and simplify the legislative process.
Without entering into much detail on the October referendum, one question needs to be answered: is this a referendum on the government, meaning on Mr Renzi’s political action? If the answer is “yes,” then Mr Renzi himself has called for a great social mobilization for the “mother of all (political) battles” as the referendum is expected to decide on the government’s success or failure.
Brunswick GroupItaly Municipal elections
Mr Renzi has become less powerful than he was one year ago: trust in Mr Renzi has decreased to just 27% of the population, according to polls. Political observers believe the honeymoon phase of every new government with its country is limited in time, and Mr Renzi is now reaching the end of the wide support he initially received from Italian public opinion.
The first cause for this decline is that Mr Renzi promised too much in too short a time. Although the country’s economic trend is slowly turning positive, low economic growth rates are not yet resulting in a relevant reduction of the unemployment rate. One of the primary reforms of the government, the so-called Jobs Act (labour market reform), was presented as the turning point of the economic crisis. Instead, employment has been among the last economic variables to rise with the recovery, and much of the recent increase in the working population has been due to public incentives. Therefore, many believe that the reform has failed to fulfil its purpose.
Moreover, Partito Democratico is now facing a crossfire of investigations, with some institutional representatives from the party accused of corruption or illicit behaviour. On-going investigations are weakening the government’s support and boosting populist parties such as the Five Stars Movement, which criticizes the establishment under the motto “Honesty!” shouted in public squares.
Looking forward to 2017
Constitutional Reform is approved by the October Referendum
Constitutional Reform is rejected by the October Referendum
Matteo Renzi resigns and the parliament is unable to form a new government.
Elections in spring/summer 2017; Mr Renzi uses the referendum as the strong narrative of his campaign and tries to isolate internal opposition.
Matteo Renzi resigns and the parliament is unable to form a new government.
Elections in spring/summer 2017; with the Constitutional Reform rejected, Mr Renzi is weakened and results are uncertain.
Matteo Renzi does not resign and carries on his political struggle.
Political oppositions become more aggressive, internal opposition inside the party tries to block reformist process looking at the elections in 2018.
The government leverages the new institutional structure as a strong narrative at the European level.
Matteo Renzi does not resign, but his power is weakened by the defeat of the referendum.
Political and internal oppositions become more aggressive and the government’s activity slows down.
These are just some of the issues besieging the government. The migration crisis and the fear related to the new comers, the economic situation, the on-going Italian banking sector’s worries, and fading pan-European sentiment are all gnawing at the base of Mr Renzi’s political support.
That said, we would consider it
unlikely for Mr Renzi’s government to reach the end of the current legislation period in 2018 (the Italian legislative period is five years, unless unanticipated elections take place).
We see four possible scenario ahead:
© Brunswick 2016 | 5
Brunswick GroupItaly Municipal elections
Italy appears to be on a knife’s edge, politically. Yesterday’s municipality elections represented only a prequel to the political struggle that will permeate the Italian debate in the months to come. Observers divide themselves between “optimists” on the reformist approach of the current government, and “pessimists” on the real possibility for Italy to recover.
As always, the truth is somewhere in the middle: on the one side, the government agenda, helped by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Quantitative Easing, together with the weakening of the Euro, is pushing the low-growth rate performance of the country. On the other side, the reforms that Italy needs must go far deeper into economic and social structures than those implemented to date. It is becoming clear that, if Mr Renzi fails in the referendum in October because he has been weakened by internal struggles and the disappointing results of the municipal elections, new scenarios may come into place that will change future expectations for Italy.
Italy on the edge
Brunswick GroupItaly Municipal elections
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