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Global forecasting serviceEconomic forecast summary - June 2012
www.gfs.eiu.com
We forecast US real GDP growth of 2.2% in 2012. Consumer spending started the year strongly, but will decelerate. Growth is forecast to average 2.3% in 2013-16.Serious headwinds remain, and our outlook is still cautious. Job creation remains uneven, and household indebtedness is weighing on spending . Housing market data has improved recently but a large overhang of unsold houses will drag on the property market.A drastic tightening of fiscal policy is in prospect in 2013 for the incoming administration. Congress is likely to moderate the impending tax rises.
Greek and French election results are challenging the euro area’s crisis response. A second election in Greece will strengthen the anti-austerity parties, putting pressure on the EU/IMF to soften their insistence on austerity. Sovereign funding costs will spike again. We expect the euro zone to survive, but anticipate much turmoil in 2012. The EU’s current bail-out funds are not large enough to accommodate Spain, let alone Italy. We expect euro zone GDP to contract by 0.7% in 2012. Germany will fare best; Greece, Portugal and Spain worst. GDP will recover only slowly thereafter.
The economy contracted by 0.7% in 2011, undermined by the negative impact of the March earthquake and tsunami as well as a strong yen that constrained export potential. Real GDP will grow by at least 1.5% in 2012, boosted by export growth and reconstruction activity. From 2013 growth will be constrained by high public indebtedness and deteriorating demographics. A recovery in Japan's automotive sector—after the disruption caused by the natural disasters and flooding later in the year in Thailand—will support both industrial output and exports in 2012.
Growth in 2012 will be constrained by sluggish OECD demand. EMs will still comfortably outperform their peers in the developed world in 2012-16. EM currencies will be sensitive to the “risk-on”, “risk-off” trade, rallying when investors are more tolerant of risk and falling back when investors flock to the US dollar. China is expected to grow by a somewhat weaker 8.3% in 2012, but still stronger than the government’s new medium-term target of 7.5%. Rebalancing the economy away from investment towards private spending will make for less commodity-intensive growth.
Oil consumption growth will be constrained in 2012 by the weak OECD economic outlook. It will average nearly 2% year on year in 2013-16, led by rising demand in the developing world. Geopolitical risks are weighing on the supply picture particularly the tensions between the West and Iran. Our forecast assumes a military outcome is avoided. Prices will average around US$113/b in 2012 as supply concerns offset the negative impact of weaker demand.
Consumption growth is expected to slow in 2012, constrained by weak EU and growth and somewhat slower growth in the developing world.
However, rising emerging market incomes and urbanisation will underpin medium-term demand growth.
Years of underinvestment, particularly in agriculture, will support prices.
Nominal prices will remain historically high in 2012-16, but prices will ease back in real terms.
Sluggish demand will be deflationary, but headline inflation will be elevated on the back of earlier oil price rises. The Fed has said it will keep interest rates very low until late 2014. A further round of quantitative easing appears unlikely if the US economy grows at a reasonable pace. We expect the ECB to hold its policy rate steady at 1% for two years. It may well need to reactivate its bond-buying and liquidity programmes to counter market tensions. Most emerging market central banks will keep interest rates broadly stable in 2012.
Europe’s debt crisis will keep the euro under pressure. We expect an average 2012 rate of US$1.31:€1, before a weakening in 2013-16. After a weak start to the year, the yen has strengthened in recent weeks. We have raised slightly our yen forecast given that we expect the currency to benefit from periods of risk aversion. EM currencies will be supported over the medium term by positive growth and interest rate differentials with OECD economies.China’s decision to allow the renminbi to move in a wider trading ban will increase volatility.
+ Unprecedented policy response prevents break-up of euro zone
- The global economy falls into recession
- The euro zone breaks up
+ Stronger than anticipated US growth boosts the global economy
- Tensions over currency manipulation lead to protectionism
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- Social and political disorder undermine stability in China
- US dollar crashes
- Economic upheaval leads to widespread social and political unrest
- An attack on Iran results in an oil price shock
- Resumption of monetary stimulus leads to new asset bubbles
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Access analysis on over 200 countries worldwide with the Economist Intelligence Unit
The analysis and content in our reports is derived from our extensive economic, financial, political and business risk analysis of over 203 countries worldwide. You may gain access to this information by signing up, free of charge, at www.eiu.com Click on the country name to go straight to the latest analysis of that country:Further reports are available from Economist Intelligence Unit and can be downloaded at www.eiu.com
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