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Managing European Security in Managing European Security in a Globalised World: What a Globalised World: What

Future?Future?

16 October 201216 October 2012

Ambassador Dr Fred TannerAmbassador Dr Fred Tanner

Director, Geneva Centre for Security PolicyDirector, Geneva Centre for Security Policy

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OutlineOutline

1. Geneva Centre for Security Policy2. Europe in the World3. Europe's Security Environment 4. Europe needs to be “secure, united and

democratic” 5. Europe's Future – 3 Scenarios6. European Security Institutions - Major

Challenges Ahead

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• Foundation with international membership (to date 44 member states and the Canton of Geneva)

• Founded 1995 as Swiss contribution to PfP• Training: Assisting current and future leaders to

translate knowledge into action• 3 Principal Courses (ITC, ETC, NISC), 40 short courses/year • Academic Year 2011/2012: 791 participants from 112 nations

• Research and dialogue in the field of peace and international security

• Recognised platform for public discussions• Intercultural dialogue and building bridges

Geneva Centre for Security PolicyGeneva Centre for Security Policy

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Europe in the WorldEurope in the World

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Marginalisation of Europe Marginalisation of Europe

• Power shifts from Atlantic to Pacific • Europe used to be the focus of world attention

during the Cold War • “ Rise of the rest” (emerging powers such as

China)• Europe is facing recession and sovereign debt

crises

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Economic Growth Rates Economic Growth Rates

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Source: Data from World Bank and IMF, April 2012

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EuropeEurope’’s Debtss Debts

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Youth Unemploymment

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Source: ILO Report “Global Employment Trends for Youth 2012”, May 2012

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Source: IISS Report “The Military Balance 2012”, March 2012

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Military spending is concentrated in North America, Europe, and increasingly, Asia

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World Military ExpenditureWorld Military Expenditure

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Europe’s Security Environment Europe’s Security Environment

Europe is embedded in a dynamic and complex global environment characterized by:

• Emergence of new powerful states and power shifts in the international structure

• Europe’ s role as a “civilian power”

• Diversification of the spectrum of international actors with a rise of non-state actors

• Major technological advancements (including laser weapons, UVAs, cyberwarfare, social media)

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European Threat AssessmentEuropean Threat Assessment

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Potential threat % of people who consider it to be serious

Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons 70

Al-Qaeda type Terrorism 72

Global Climate Change 55

Financial „Meltdown“ 51

Resource Scarcity 49

Cultural / Religious Conflicts 43

Overpopulation and Migration 33

Source: Gallup poll „Europeans on Global Security“, December 2010

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The main concerns for European The main concerns for European citizens (Eurobarometer 2012)citizens (Eurobarometer 2012)

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Europe needs to be “Europe needs to be “securesecure, united and , united and democratic” (Hilary Clinton, Munich 2012)democratic” (Hilary Clinton, Munich 2012)

• Conflicts in Europe’’s neighbourhood (e.g. between Turkey and Syria)

• Cuts in military spending due to economic crisis (since 2008 Greece: 26%, Spain 18%, Italy 16%)

• Crisis of multilaterism (G 20, 4 European countries, plus EU)

• Relations with Russia• Need to transform and demilitarise strategic

relations between the US/NATO and Russia

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• Growing “enlargement fatigue” (countries preparing to join the EU: BiH, Croatia, FYRM, Kosovo, Montenegro, Serbia, Iceland and Turkey; 2004 with ten new member states largest enlargement so far)

• Continuous euroscepticism (falling trust in EU institutions, image problems)

• Territorial issues still not settled (Europe’’s “frozen conflicts”)

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Europe needs to be “secure, Europe needs to be “secure, unitedunited and and democratic” (Hilary Clinton, Munich 2012)democratic” (Hilary Clinton, Munich 2012)

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EuropeEurope’s “Frozen Conflicts”’s “Frozen Conflicts”

• Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia and Abkhazia re-escalated in 2008

• Division of Cyprus has been frozen since more than 40 years

• Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh territory

• Kosovo and Serbia over Kosovo’s independence

• Moldova over Transnistria breakaway region

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• EU played a very important role for the promotion of democracy after the Cold War (especially through enlargements, but also in trade relations)

• Democratisation not linear, danger of regression• Continuous efforts include, the EU’’s “Eastern

Partnership” to enhance relations and promote democracy in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine

• EU’s engagement with the Arab transition countries

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Europe needs to be “secure, united and Europe needs to be “secure, united and democraticdemocratic” (Hilary Clinton, Munich 2012)” (Hilary Clinton, Munich 2012)

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EuropeEurope’s Future – ’s Future – Scenarios (1)Scenarios (1)C. Stelzenmuller, F. HeisbourgC. Stelzenmuller, F. Heisbourg

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Europe’’s fragmentation and failure• No implosion, but slow decline, economic

depression in Europe and globally• Departure of Greece from Eurozone, eventually

collapse of Eurozone• EU still exists but recession, more as customs

union and less as single market• Return of trade barriers

• Re-nationalisation of Europe: Germany seeks export markets in Asia

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EuropeEurope’’s Future – Scenarios (2)s Future – Scenarios (2)C. Stelzenmuller, F. HeisbourgC. Stelzenmuller, F. Heisbourg

Further integration (Federal big bang)• Marginalisation can only be avoided by creating a

strong union, fiscal union, federal taxation goes with political and constitutional unity

• EU would emerge as a powerful actor on the global stage

• “Federalise” as few powers as possible (Germany) vs. Europeanisation of debt (Italy) – role of the UK?

• NATO as future umbrella of European defence• Europe without UK, future candidates loose

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EuropeEurope’s Future - ’s Future - Scenarios (3)Scenarios (3)C. Stelzenmuller, F. HeisbourgC. Stelzenmuller, F. Heisbourg

“Reculer pour mieux sauter”, muddling

through, “drifting” (Heisbourg)• Crisis management, no time for strategy• Eurozone saved, some doses of federalism

(European Stability Mechanism), anti-European sentiment will radicalise and grow among the younger generations hard hit by unemployment

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European Security Institutions: Major European Security Institutions: Major Challenges AheadChallenges Ahead

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NATO: Preparing for the “EurodämmerungNATO: Preparing for the “Eurodämmerung””

•Major cuts of defence budgets across the board•Fair sharing of burdens of common security•NATO: A “service provider” instead of a “security community”?•Alliance coherence-“Collective defenders” vs. “Expeditionaries”•US future commitment to Europe – about to pivot?•Smart defence : limits of pooling and sharing

…The way forward lies not in spending more but in spending better“

A.F. Rasmussen, FA 2011A.F. Rasmussen, FA 2011

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Wild cardsWild cards• Russia

• Missile defence, Post-Soviet space, energy strategy, nuclear weapons

• Turkey• Emerging power

• Fixation on US rather than EU

• “Hot spots” (Iran, Syria, Sahel, South Asia, Korea) could draw Europe (NATO) into a conflict

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Reports and ProjectsReports and Projects• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2012:

Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative (EASI). • Francois Heisbourg 2012: In the Shadow of the Euro

Crisis, Survival, 54(4), 25-32. • Constanze Stelzenmüller 2012: Europe on its Own.

How the Crisis-Ridden Continent will Respond to a Decade of U.S. Retrenchment: Three Scenarios, The Euro-Future Project, Paper Series, June 2012.

• IISS, The International Institute for Strategic Studies 2012: Strategic Survey 2012: The Annual Review of World Affairs, Routledge.

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