Namibian Democracy Consolidated

12.04.2023Lari Kangas

NAMIBIAN DEMOCRACY CONSOLIDATED?

Democracy is more than free and fair elections


NAMIBIAN DEMOCRACY CONSOLIDATED? 18 years of peace Dramatic growing gap between rich and poor Free and fair elections, high voting turnout Swapo winning more than 2/3, weak opposition Local Power Brokers –Andre du Pisani No line between the state and the leading party Article §48 of the Constitution, and The role of the Justice Service Commission


MA THESISUniversity of Stellenbosch


WHAT I DIDN’T WANT TO SAY

“Once a country has a democratic regime, its level of economic development has a very strong effect on the probability that democracy will survive. Poor democracies, particularly those with annual per-capita income of less than $1,000, are extremely fragile: based on our study, the probability that one will die during a particular year is 0,12. This rate falls to 0,06 in the $1,000 to $2,000 range, to 0,03 between $2,000 and $4,000, and to 0,01 between $4,000 and $6,000. These numbers mean that a democracy can be expected to last an average of about 8,5 years in a country with per-capita income under $1,000 per annum, 16 years in one with income between $1,000 and $2,000, 33 years between $2,000 and $4,000, and 100 years between $4,000 and $6,000”

- Przeworski et al. 1996, p. 40-41.


WHAT I DID WANT TO SAY - INEQUALITIES

“If a democracy never produced policies that generated government mandated public goods in the areas of education, health, and transportation some safety net for its citizens hurt by major market swings, and some alleviation of gross inequality, democracy would not be sustainable”

- Linz&Stepan 1996, p. 12.

Inequalities, lack of middle class and lack of local investments hinder democratic consolidation

Super-rich and the poor (investments abroad and no investments) pesters development

Namibian investments abroad $200M and foreign investments to Namibia $80M (UNDP 2000) More than poorest 50% make collectively in a year


NAMIBIA - ECONOMIC BREAKDOWN

Country of super-rich and super-poor, the most unequal country in the World (UNDP-Namibia report) Richest 10% better welfare

than Luxemburg Richest 22% better welfare

than Sweden Poorest 78% worse welfare

than Liberia

Over 50% of women live well below poverty line, $0,36 /day


Population group

World Bank ranking

GNP GNP per capita

GNP per capita with purchasing

power parity

Per capita Income

comparable to…

Per capita income

purchasing power

comparable to…

Numbers of people

Richest 10%

More advanced

developing countries

US$2017,6m US$12154 US$46185 Cyprus, Israel Luxembourg 166000

Richest 22% High Income Countries US$2328m US$6375 US$24225

Saudi Arabia, Seychelles,

Uruguay

Finland, Sweden, Germany

365200

Richest 50%

Upper Middle-Income

Countries

US$2946,3m US$3550 US$13490 South Africa, Mexico

Czech Rep., Hungary 830000

Upper 50% minus the

richest 10%

Lower Middle-Income

Countries

US$928,7m US$1399 US$5316 Swaziland, Morocco

Brazil, Ukraine 664000

Everyone minus the

richest 10% (poorest 90%)

Low-Income Countries US$1086,4m US$727 US$2762 Honduras,

ZimbabweIndia,

Indonesia 1494000

Everyone minus the

richest 22% (poorest 78%)

Least Developed Countries

US$776m US$599 US$2276 Cameroon, Lesotho Pakistan 1294800

Poorest 50%Least

Developed Countries

US$157,7m US$190 US$722 Eritrea, Mozambique Nigeria 830000

National Total

Lower Middle-Income

Countries

US$3104m US$1930 US$7334 Iran, Macedonia

Russia, South Africa, Turkey 1660000

[1] The purchasing power parity used for Namibia is the same than found for South Africa 2002. US$2600 in South Africa translated to US$9870 purchasing power. This gives us a multiply of 3,8.


NAMIBIA - INCOMES

Richest 10%

Richest 22%

Richest 50%

Upper 40%

Lower 90%

Lower 78%

Lower 50%

$- $10,000 $20,000

$30,000 $40,000

$50,000

Income with PPP


NAMIBIA AND FINLAND - INCOMES

Richest 10%

Richest 22%

Richest 50%

Upper 40%

Lower 90%

Lower 78%

Lower 50%

$- $20,000

$40,000 $60,000

$80,000

Income with PPP


GDP PER CAPITA VS. HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX

GDP per capita ranking remains the same Human Development Index ranking dropping

Namibia surpassed Brazil and Bangladesh as one of the most unequal countries in the World, with Gini coefficiency of 0,72 and growing (UNDP-Namibia, 2000)

Gap between macroeconomic indicators and human development is widening

If we conclude that globalization widens the gap, in Namibia the gap is widening even faster 2 rankings per year


LOCAL POWER BROKERS

Opposition doesn’t have the means for development Remains in the

Windhoek elite

”If a well-pump, the lifeline of the village, breaks down in the North, the village will not seek help from the local government, but the Swapo local power broker, who then delivers the help”

- Prof Andre du Pisani, UNAM


LINE BETWEEN THE STATE AND THE LEADING PARTY

Non existing Means of the state at Swapo’s disposal

– local power brokers

Opposition breaking away from Swapo ranks, remaining in Windhoek, therefore not meaningfulSwapo-D, CoD, RDP


”Most progressive and democratic Constitution in Africa” Martti Ahtisaari and the international community 1990

”Leading democracy in Africa” Martti Ahtisaari 2000

THE CONSTITUTION


CHAPTER 7, ARTICLE §48 VACATION OF SEATS

(1) Members of the National Assembly shall vacate their seats:

a) ...b) (b) If the political party which nominated them to sit in the

National Assembly informs the Speaker that such members are no longer members of such party;

c) ...

(2) If the seats of member of the National Assembly is vacated in terms of Sub-Article (1) hereof, the political party which nominated such member to sit in the National Assembly shall be entitled to fill the vacancy by nominating any person on the party’s election list compiled for the previous general election, or if there be no such person, by nominating any member of the party.


SEPARATION OF POWERS

Article §48 not in line with the rest of the ConstitutionArticle §1 (3) states separation of powers to the Executive, the Legislature and the Judicial branch of Government

Article §48 gives the right for the party to resign and appoint Members of Parliament without elections

If 2/3 for one party If party leadership is not democratically elected, and If the President is the same person as the Chairman of

the leading party

Then the President (the Executive) controls the National Assembly (the Legislative branch)


SEPARATION OF POWERS

Article §82 “All appointments of Judges to the Supreme Court and

the High Court shall be made by the President on the recommendation of the Judicial Service Commission…”

Article §84“A Judge may be removed from office before the expiry

of his or her tenure only by the President acting on the recommendation of the Judicial Service Commission”

Same with appointing and resigning the Attorney-General and the Prosecutor-General


JUDICIAL SERVICE COMMISSION

Article §85(1) ”There shall be a Judicial Service Commission

consisting of the Chief Justice, a Judge appointed by the President, the Attorney-General and two members of the legal profession…”

3/5 members depend on the goodwill of the President

With control of the JSC the President (the Executive) controls all appointments and resignations of the Judicial branch.


IN CONCLUSION

Namibia has not consolidated her democracy

And is not going to that direction either

Economic inequalitiesNo viable oppositionNo separation of state

and the leading partyNo separation of powers

in the Government

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Namibian Democracy Consolidated