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Report on demographics and economy in northern Utah. Presented in October 2008.
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Northern Utah Human Resource Association
An Economic Update(U.S., Utah, Davis & Weber)
October 2008
The National Economic Context
U.S. Key Indicators:
Output – GDP Growth Est 3.3 % (2nd 2008)
Inflation – Up 2.9% (2007), 5.4% August 2008
Population 0.7 %Job Growth - 0.3 % (August 2008)
Unemployment 6.1% (August 2008)
Construction – Housing starts off 36% (Aug08)
Utah
Significant Slowing in the Economy – But for How Long?
Key Indicators:
PopulationJob GrowthUnemploymentAverage WagesConstruction
Population
Percent Change in Population for States : 2006 to 2007U.S. Rate = 1.0%
Utah is in the Center of the Fastest Growing Region in the Country
< 0.9Source: U.S Census Bureau
NM1.5
UT2.4
AZ3.6
CA0.8
NV3.5
OR1.7
TX2.5
OK1.0
CO1.9
WA1.7
ID2.6
MT1.1
WY1.2
ND0.2
SD0.9
MN0.8
NE0.6
KS0.6
IA0.6
MO0.8
AR1.3
LA-4.9
WI0.5
IL0.5
IN0.8
OH0.1
FL 1.8
TN 1.4
KY0.8
MS0.1
AL1.1
GA2.5
SC
1.7
NC 2.1
VA1.0
WV0.2
PA0.3
NY0.0
ME0.3
AK1.0
HI1.0
MA0.1
VT0.2
NH0.6
RI-0.6
CT0.1
NJ0.2
DE1.4
MD0.5
MI-0.1
1.5 to 1.9
0.9 to 1.4 (At or Above the U.S. Rate)
2.0 or more (More than Double the U.S. Rate)
Percent Change in Population for States : 1990 to 2006U.S. Rate = 20.4%
Utah is in the Center of the Fastest Growing Region in the Country
< 10%Source: U.S Census Bureau
NM
UT
AZ
CA
NV
OR
TX
OK
CO
WA
ID
MT
WY
ND
SD
MN
NE
KS
IA
MO
AR
LA
WI
IL IN OH
FL
TN
KY
MS AL GA
SC
NC
VAWV
PA
NY
ME
AK
HI
MAVT
NH
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
MI
20% to <40%
10% to <20%
> 40%
The United States PopulationIs Sparse in the Mountain Region
< 3 millionSource: U.S Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey
NM
UT
AZ
CA
NV
OR
TX
OK
CO
WA
ID
MT
WY
ND
SD
MN
NE
KS
IA
MO
AR
LA
WI
IL IN OH
FL
TN
KY
MS AL GASC
NC
VAWV
PA
NY
ME
AK
HI
MAVT
NH
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
MI
6 to <15 million
3 to <6 million
> 15 million
Utah Population by County: 2007
Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee
Box Elder47,491
Cache109,022
Rich2,162
Weber220,781
Tooele56,536
Salt Lake1,018,904
Morgan9,265
Summit38,412
Daggett 969
Utah501,447
Wasatch21,951 Duchesne
16,163Uintah28,806
Juab9,654
Sanpete26,464
Carbon19,730
Emery10,461 Grand
9,125
Millard13,414
Piute1,385
Garfield4,872
Sevier20,442
Wayne2,635
San Juan14,807
Iron44,813
Beaver6,466
Washington140,908
Kane6,440
Davis296,029
State = 2,699,554
20,000 to 99,999
< 19,999
> 500,000
100,000 to 499,999
Utah Population Growth Rates by County: 2006 to 2007
Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee
Box Elder3.3%
Cache3.2%
Rich1.9%
Weber2.3%
Tooele4.0%
Salt Lake2.3%
Morgan4.2%
Summit4.2%
Daggett 2.1%
Utah5.5%
Wasatch4.3% Duchesne
3.7%Uintah3.8%
Juab3.6%
Sanpete2.6%
Carbon1.2%
Emery0.2% Grand
1.1%
Millard1.4%
Piute0.9%
Garfield2.1%
Sevier2.3%
Wayne3.9%
San Juan1.1%
Iron3.2%
Beaver0.6%
Washington4.5%
Kane2.3%
Davis3.3%
State Average = 3.2%
Increase of 1.0% to 2.6%
Change of less than 1.0%
Increase of 4.0% or greater
Increase of 2.7% to 3.9%
Utah Components of Population Change
Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Per
son
s
Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population Change
Job Growth
Strong Job Growth in Utah
Year Over Rate of Job Growth
1.3
0.3
1.1
3.9
1.6
1.0
3.1 3.03.2
5.4
6.2
5.6
5.1
4.2
3.0
2.4 2.5
0.6
0.0
2.8
4.0
5.2
3.9
0.5
-0.7
4.7 4.7
6.0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
1960 to 2007 Average
3.3%
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
90 95 00
Year-Over Percent Change
In Non-farm Jobs
05
Utah
U.S.
9.6%7.3%
6.9%6.3%
5.6%5.2%5.2%5.1%5.0%
4.6%4.2%
4.0%3.9%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.7%3.6%3.5%
3.3%3.2%
3.0%2.6%2.5%
1.7%1.1%
-0.8%-1.8%
6.2%
12.0% Duchesne Wasatch
Uintah Piute
Morgan Summit Daggett
Utah Rich
Tooele Sanpete
Box Elder Grand
BeaverState Total
Cache San JuanWashingto Salt Lake
Garfield Juab
Weber Kane Davis
Sevier Wayne Millard
Iron Emery
Carbon
Annual 2006-2007 Change in Nonfarm Jobs
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics.
500
3,900
-800
2,400
6,500
400
3,800
-200
-12,800
3,200
200
Natural Resources
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Education and Health
Government
Utah Nonfarm Industry ProfileNumeric Change in Employment
July 2007 – 2008
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Prof., and Business
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
One industry is largely clouding the entire picture.
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, August 2008
Overall
Housing-Related
Utah Percentage Employment ChangeOverall – Housing-Related
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Unemployment
Annual 2007 Unemployment Rates2.1%
2.2%2.2%
2.4%
2.5%
2.5%
2.6%
2.6%2.6%2.6%
2.7%
2.7%2.7%2.7%
2.7%2.8%2.8%
2.9%
3.1%3.1%
3.2%
3.2%
3.4%3.6%
3.7%
4.1%
4.7%4.8%
5.3%
2.5%
Cache
Rich
Uintah
Utah
Duchesne
Piute
Summit
Davis
Millard
Salt Lake
Statewide
Beaver
Iron
Morgan
Wasatch
Washington
Box Elder
Sevier
Tooele
Juab
Weber
Kane
Sanpete
Emery
Carbon
Daggett
Wayne
Grand
Garfield
San Juan
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Here in Davis and Weber Counties
Population
Davis & Weber County Population1989 to 2007
130,000
150,000
170,000
190,000
210,000
230,000
250,000
270,000
290,000
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Month & Year
Davis
Weber
Source: Governor’s Office of Planning & Budget, Demographic & Economic Analysis Section September 2008.
2000-2007 Growth RateDavis 3.3%Weber 1.7%State 2.9%
Employment
Davis & Weber County Monthly Jobs1989 to June 2008p
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,00089
J O J A92
J O J A95
J O J A98
J O J A01
J O J A04
J O J A07
J O
Month & Year
Davis
Weber
May 2001
p = preliminary.Source: Utah Dept. Workforce Services, Workforce Information October 2008.
Davis County Employment
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
00 01 02 0399*2008 second quarter data is preliminary.Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008
04 0605 07 08
Davis County Employment Growth Rates
-0.5%
0.5%
1.5%
2.5%
3.5%
4.5%
5.5%
6.5%
00 01 02 0399*2008 second quarter data is preliminarySource: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008
04 05 06 07 08
Davis County Year-Over Construction EmploymentGrowth Rates 2006-2008
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Jan-
06
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-
07
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-
08
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
*2008 second quarter data is preliminary.Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008
Davis County Year-Over Manufacturing EmploymentGrowth Rates 2006-2008
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Jan-
06
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-
07
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-
08
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
*2008 second quarter data is preliminary.Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008
Weber County Employment
84,000
86,000
88,000
90,000
92,000
94,000
96,000
98,000
00 01 02 0399*2008 second quarter data is preliminarySource: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008
04 05 06 07 08
Weber County Employment Growth Rates
-2.3%
-1.3%
-0.3%
0.7%
1.7%
2.7%
3.7%
00 01 02 0399*2008 second quarter data is preliminary.Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008
04 05 06 07 08
Weber County Year-Over Construction EmploymentGrowth Rates 2006-2008
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Jan-
06
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-
07
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-
08
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
*2008 second quarter data is preliminary.Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008
Weber County Year-Over Manufacturing EmploymentGrowth Rates 2006-2008
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
Jan-
06
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-
07
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-
08
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
*2008 second quarter data is preliminary.Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008
Unemployment
Annual Unemployment Rates
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
U.S. Weber
Utah
Davis
3.2%
2.6%
4.5%
2.7%
State, Davis, and Weber Monthly Unemployment Rates*
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Jan2001
AprJulOctJan2002
AprJulOctJan2003
AprJulOctJan2004
AprJulOctJan2005
AprJulOctJan2006
AprJulOctJan2007
AprJulOctJan-08
AprJul
Davis
WeberState
*Seasonally Adjusted.Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
$$$$ Wages $$$$
2007 Average Monthly Wage by County
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
$1,792$1,899
$1,977$2,006$2,076
$2,134$2,145
$2,250$2,308$2,330$2,340$2,401
$2,490$2,502
$2,611$2,668$2,709$2,721$2,765$2,809$2,858
$2,951$3,043$3,088
$3,298$3,310$3,377$3,406
$3,534
$2,089
Piute Rich
Sanpete Garfield Wayne
Kane Iron
Grand Cache
Beaver Sevier
San Juan Washington
Morgan Daggett
Wasatch Millard Weber
Utah Summit Carbon
Juab Davis
State Tooele
Duchesne Emery
Box Elder Salt Lake
Uintah
% Change in Average Monthly Wage 2006-2007
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
0.2%1.5%
2.3%3.0%
3.6%3.7%3.7%3.8%
4.1%4.3%4.5%4.7%
5.0%5.2%5.3%5.6%5.8%6.0%
6.5%7.3%7.4%7.6%
8.2%9.2%
10.1%10.5%
12.7%12.9%
14.7%
3.2%
Emery Piute
Wayne Tooele Beaver
Davis Weber
Washington Iron
Cache Millard Sevier
Carbon Grand
Garfield Morgan
State Utah
Salt Lake Box Elder
Sanpete Summit
Kane Uintah
Daggett San Juan
Rich Wasatch
Juab Duchesne
Average Monthly Wage – 2007
• State wages at $3,044 ($17.56/hr) are above both Davis $2,952 ($17.03/hr) and Weber $2,718 ($15.68/hr)
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
Average Wage
State
Davis
Weber
$3044
$2952
$2718
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Average Wage ChangeState, Davis, Weber2005-2006 and 2006-2007*
5.6%
3.6%4.0%
5.7%5.6%5.4%
State Davis Weber
2005-2006 2006-2007
*PreliminarySource: Utah Department of workforce Services
Total Payroll Wage ChangeState, Davis, Weber2005-2006 and 2006-2007*
9.8%
6.7%
7.5%
8.7%
10.0%10.5%
State Davis Weber
2005-2006 2006-2007
*PreliminarySource: Utah Department of workforce Services
Davis & Weber Counties Average Monthly Wage, 2007
3,889
2,057
989
2,744
3,506
2,557
3,210
3,231
3,931
2,951
2,897
1,965
995
3,004
2,463
3,137
2,499
2,348
3,776
3,002
6,218
2,709
3,283
2,610
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Government
Other Services
Leisure Hospitality
Educ. & Health Serv
Prof. Bus. Serv
Finance
Information
Trad Transp Util
Manuf.
Construction
Mining
Total
WeberDavis
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Average WageDavis $2,951Weber $2,709
11.4%
5.3%
3.3%
1.8%
4.5%
0.8%
4.7%
-9.6%
4.7%
3.0%
5.3%
2.9%
3.3%
-12.4%
4.1%
5.0%
4.9%
2.5%
2.6%
3.2%
4.9%
6.4%
DavisWeber
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Trans., Util
Information
Financial Activities
Education and Health
Government
Percent Change in Average WagesBy Industry, Davis & Weber Counties, 2006-2007
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Prof., and Business
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Construction
Davis & Weber Counties Construction Dwelling Permits
1,473
1,280 1,304 1,2661,142 1,183 1,255
873
1,832
2,571 2,564
2,867
3,179 3,160
2,765
1,919
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Davis Weber
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.
Davis & Weber Counties Construction Permit Values
(Millions of $)
359
251230
268238
278
324 327321
391431
544
640
727 718
571
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Davis Weber
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.
Davis & Weber Construction Activity Change Jan-Sept 2007 to Jan-Sept 2008
-17.0% -18.0%
-52.9%
-46.0%
-56.0%
-44.0%
Davis Weber State
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.
Dwelling Permits Total Const.Valuation
Outlook
Jobs
State OutlookContinued slowing to 0.2% in 2008 and going negative -1.0%
in 2009. Growth around 2.0% after 2009.
DavisSliding to zero job growth in 2008. Slipping to – 0.5% in 2009.
WeberJob growth of –0.5% for 2008. Still negative in 2009 at about
-1.0%. Manufacturing job losses to continue.
UnemploymentIncreasing in all counties but not accelerating. More “job pausing,”i.e. not hiring, as firms determine which way the economy is going to move.
Davis unemployment at 5.0% in 2009Weber joblessness in the 5.0% to 5.5% range in 2009
Wages – upward pressure subsiding as economy slows.
ConstructionPermitting at low levels but growing in 2009 and 2010 if lendingresumes. Total construction activity held together mostly bynonresidential (commercial/industrial) building. Little residentialactivity until finance industry settles, qualifying standards set,and regulatory resolution known.
SpendingSlow and cautious. As soon as consumers “perceive” better timesthey will spend. Issues of income growth, job security, and
inflation(energy prices).
Questions?
John MathewsNorthern Regional Economist
Department of Workforce Services(jobs.utah.gov)
[email protected](801) 526-9467
Powerpoint slide show at:http://jobs.utah.gov/opencms/wi/pubs/publicat.html
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