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How can BJP revive itself in Delhi
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Marketing Strategy for BJPA Study on Delhi Assembly
Alok Pratap Singh
Election Facts• A candidate in exchange of votes offers
Political Leadership and is a service provider.• A political campaign is based on
– What voters think?– What competitors are saying?
• A young, fragmented & more informed electorate.
• The decline of Party Loyalty• The high cost of running an election.
A. Party Concept
B. Product Concept
C. Selling Concept
D. Marketing Concept
Market (Voter) Segmentation
Candidate Positioning
Strategy Formulation and Implementation
A. Assess Voter Needs
B. Profile Voters
C. Identify Voter Segments
A. Assess Candidate Strengths and Weakness
B. Assess Competition
C. Target Segment
D. Establish Image
A. The 4 P’s1. Product
(Campaign Platform)
2. Push Marketing (Gross Roots efforts)
3. Pull Marketing (Mass Media)
4. Polling (Research)
B. Organizational Development and Control
CandidateFocus The Marketing Campaign
A. Technology i)Television ii) Mobile
B. Structural Shifts i)Primary and convention Rulesii) Financial Regulationsiii) Rallies
C. Power Broker Shifts in Influencei) Candidateii) Consultantiii)Pollsteriv)Mediav)Political Partyvi)Political Action Committees/Interest Groupvii) Voters
EnvironmentalForces
Preprimary Primary Convention GeneralStage Stage Stage Election
Stage
THE POLITICAL CAMPAIGN
Product concept
Party Concept
1998 Atal Bihar Bajpayee
2003- India Shining C
ampaign
Centered on Voter
Selling Concept
Marke
ting
Conce
pt
Environmental ForcesA. Technology
– Internet – Online survey, Social networking, Commercials.– Television - Commercials, Television Debates, Media Analysis– Mobile – SMS, 3G Technology
B. Structural Shift– Primary and Convention Rules – One constituency differs from the
other– Financial – Fund availability & Contributions.– Rallies – Leadership Quality, Communication Skill.
C. The Power Brokers– The Candidate
• Shiela Dixit INC – Development Ideology & Philosophy• Arun Jaitely BJP – Not clear
– The Consultant – Delhi State president & Prabhari– The Pollster - Supreme Court Ban– The Media – Investigative journalism, Sting Operations, Whistle
Blowers, Candidate performance review
The Marketing Campaign
• Voter Behavior (BJP) – Functional Value
• Swadeshi• Swadeshi approach to
Globalization– Social Value
• Justice for all, appeasement to none “Dharam Rajya”
• Good Governance, Development & Security
– Emotional Value• Uniform Civil Code• Hindutva• Ram Mandir at Ayodhya
– Conditional Value• Temporary Events
– Epistemic Value• Incumbency Factor• New Innovative different
orientation
Market (Voter) Segmentation
Market (Voter) Segmentation
A. Assess Voter Needs
B. Profile Voters
C. Identify Voter Segments
Delhi Fact SheetReligion/Sexwise Total Population in Delhi 2001
Nos %ge Nos %ge Nos %geAll Religion 13850507 7607234 55 6243273 45Hindus 11358049 82 6249351 82 5108698 82Muslims 1623520 14 911006 12 712514 11
FemaleTotal Person Male
LITERACY PERSON (%) MALE (%) FEMALE(%)YEAR 2001 81.82 87.37 75.00%
No of ConstituencyType of Constituency Gen SC ST TotalNo of Constituency 57 13 0 70
Business Class (Baniya/traders)
Forward casts Hindu
Fundamentalist(radical & Moderate)
Sweet spot
Market (Voter) Segmentation
The Marketing Campaign
• Voter Behavior (INC)– Functional Value
• Economic Policy – Free Market Policy with
Govt. Regulation• Foreign Policy – Non
Alignment– Social Value
• Sarvodaya - upliftment of all section of society
– Emotional Value Secularism
– Conditional Value Temporary Events
Market (Voter) Segmentation
Market (Voter) Segmentation
A. Assess Voter Needs
B. Profile Voters
C. Identify Voter Segments
Strategy Formulation & Implementation
• Market Analysis– How Delhi has fared
economically, socially & politically?
• Candidate Internal Situation– Background, motivation
• Competitive Analysis– INC candidates
• Positioning– Image of Candidate
• Candidate Recognition– Brand
• State Prabhari & Mantri– Brightest & Smart
• Primary Stage– Flexibility
• Final Stage– Consolidating from Poll
Survey
The Candidate PositioningINC (Sheila Dixit) BJP (???)
Strengths•Development
MetroFlyovers
•Law and OrderPolice image has improvedCrime rate has reduced
No clearly identified Chief Minister candidate for BJP
Weaknesses•Corruption
CWG •Electricity
Most expensive industrial unit cost in India
Candidate PositioningLeadership
(strong)
(weak)
Image positive
Arun
Sheila
Image negative
ELECTION 2003 DATAELECTORS 2003 MEN WOMEN TOTALi. NO. OF ELECTORALS 4756330 3691994 8448324ii. NO.OF ELECTORALS WHO VOTED 2610829 1902306 4513135iii. POLLING PERCENTAGE 54.89% 51.53% 53.42%PERFORMANCE OF WOMEN CANDIDATE 2003
MEN WOMEN TOTALi. NO.OF CONTESTANTS 739 78 817ii. ELECTED 63 7 70
PERFORMANCE OF POLITICAL PARTIES 2003
NATIONAL PARTIES VOTES %BJP 20 1589323 35.22%INC 47 2172062 48.13%BSP 0 259905 5.76%
SEATS WONVOTES POLLED
Targeting Segments
• Three target group of constituency– Top end constituency – Janak Puri (Margin 21.81%
BJP)– Play Hard constituency - Gole Market (65% INC),
Minto Road (65% INC)– Big challenge constituency – Kasturba Nagar (683
votes-BJP), Mahipalpur (Margin 7.5% INC)
Application of Swing Model on 2003 Delhi Assembly Election
BJP (17)
Catching Up(5)Swinging (9)
Running Away (8)
INC (27)
Swing Model (2 Party Model) – Lees: Marshment
Party K’s Den
Catching Up with KSwinging
(alternate)
Running Away from K
Party J’s Den
Assumptions:– Swing is Alternate– Each Party’s Dominant area is unaffected to exogenous factors– Factors affecting the voter decision are factored in the longitudinal
pattern of data
2008 Prediction Vs Actual Tally(Considering the swing on Congress Side)
Party Dominance Swings Catching Up/Running Away
Total Actual Tally
Congress 27 9 8 44 42
BJP 17 - 5 22 23
2013 Prediction(Considering the swing on BJP Side)
Party Dominance Swings Catching Up/Running Away
Total Magic No
Congress 27 - 8 3535BJP 17 9 5 31
Data
The Pull Strategy • Learn from the success of constituencies from where BJP has been
consistently winning with increasing margin YoY:– Delhi Cantonment – Tilak Nagar– Sahibabad Daulatpu (Rithala/Rohini)– Tughlakabad
• Following Constituency should be targeted Within 10% of losing margin– Nangloi Jat– Mandawali (Laxmi Nagar)– Narela (SC)– Timarpur
Narrowing the Gap– Adarsh Nagar (from 31% to 15%)
Marketing Strategies 2013
4P of Political Marketing• Product
– Eliminate Corruption– Sushasan, Vikas
• Push Marketing– Gross Root Efforts
• Pull Marketing– Mass Media TV, Radio, Internet,
Mobile, Print, CD, Negative Advertisement, Celebrity endorsement
• Polling – Market Research, polls
Organizational DevelopmentState
President
State Prabhari
Sanghatan Mantri Treasurer Secretary
Strategy Implementation• Primary Stage
– In the initial phase of the campaign, strategy should be flexible to accommodate the twists and turns of election
• Final Stage– When the campaign moves into final leg of the race,
implementation of the strategy should be carried out with sharp focus
• Monitoring and Controlling the Strategy– Prabhari & Mantri constantly review how well their
strategy is working through Market Survey and Poll
Thank You!!