The Public Opinion Landscape – What We Learned From The Government Shutdown and Debt Ceiling Debate

October 18, 2013

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Perceptions of State of the Nation / Economic Conditions

2. Views on Obama & Congress

3. Party Images

Slide

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Perceptions of State of the Nation / Economic Conditions

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All in all, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in this country today?

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 9-13, 2013

DISSATISFACTION WITH STATE OF THE NATION NEARS PEAK

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Thinking about the government shutdown that started on October 1st… How concerned, if at all, are you about the government shutdown’s effect on the U.S. economy?

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 9-13, 2013

CONCERN ABOUT SHUTDOWN’S ECONOMIC IMPACT IS SUBSTANTIAL

57%

26% 10% 6%

Very concerned Somewhatconcerned

Not tooconcerned

Not at allconcerned

Note: “DK/REF” results are not shown.

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Source: Gallup Poll, October 7-13, 2013

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE SLIDES DURING SHUTDOWN

Lowest Gallup has measured since late November/early December 2011

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During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?

23% 19% 19% 20%

25%

18% 18%

9%

28%

18% 21%

24%

42%

35%

42% 46%

41% 45%

38% 32% 34% 33%

49% 47% 48%

38%

40%

38% 33% 35% 27% 36%

42% 45%

38%

32% 31% 27%

17%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Will stay the same

Will get worse

Will get better

Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, October 7-9, 2013

MORE AMERICANS NOW THINK ECONOMY WILL GET WORSE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT YEAR

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Thinking about President Obama and Republicans in Congress and their negotiations about the budget, does it make you feel more confident or less confident about the economy getting better or does it not make a difference in your opinion one way or the other?

AMERICANS LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT ECONOMY GETTING BETTER

Note: “Not Sure” results are not shown. Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, October 7-9, 2013

No difference

Less confident

More confident

28%

63%

7%

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DYSFUNCTIONAL GOVERNMENT SURPASSES ECONOMY AS TOP U.S. PROBLEM

Highest percentage citing dysfunctional government in Gallup history

Most Important Problem – October 2013

Dissatisfaction with government (33%) Healthcare (12%)

Economy in general (19% Federal budget deficit / Federal debt (12%)

Unemployment / jobs (12%) Lack of money (5%)

Source: Gallup Poll, October 3-6, 2013

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Views on Obama & Congress

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OBAMA’S OVERALL JOB APPROVAL RATING FADES

Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of October 18, 2013

DISAPPROVE 51.1%

APPROVE 43.3%

Overall Job Approval

CONGRESSIONAL JOB APPROVAL FALLS to 11% AMID THE SHUTDOWN

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Source: Gallup Poll, October 3-6, 2013

Congress Overall Own Representative

Approve Disapprove

Oct-13 44% 43%

May-13 46% 41%

Mar-92 58% 31%

Oct-91 64% 27%

Nov-90 55% 28%

Aug-90 66% 19%

Mar-77 55% 18%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the representative from your congressional district is handling his or her job?

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?

RECORD ANTI-INCUMBENCY MOOD

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Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 9-13, 2013

Would you like to see your representative in Congress be re-elected in the next congressional election, or not?

62%

49%

66%

58% 57% 52%

48%

22%

29%

22% 23% 25% 29%

38%

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

YesNo

Regardless of how you feel about your own representative, would you like to see most members of Congress re-elected in the next congressional election, or not?

No 74%

Yes 18%

Dk/Ref 8%

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VIEWS OF CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS MORE NEGATIVE THAN POSITIVE

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 9-13, 2013

Unsure 14%

Would you say your overall opinion of [INSERT NAME] is very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?

23%

26%

27%

27%

34%

37%

33%

50%

39%

49%

40%

40%

23%

34%

17%

Mitch McConnell

Ted Cruz

John Boehner

Harry Reid

Nancy Pelosi

Favorable Unfavorable No rating

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DEMOCRATS HOLD SLIGHT LEAD ON CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT FOR 2014

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 9-13, 2013

Unsure 14%

Thinking about the next congressional elections that will be coming up about a year from now… If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY, would you vote for the Republican Party’s candidate or the Democratic Party’s candidate for Congress in your district?

43% 49%

8%

Republican candidate

Democratic candidate

Other / DK/Ref

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Party Images

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DISAPPROVAL OF GOP PEAKS IN BLAME FOR THE BUDGET CRISIS

Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, October 9-13, 2013

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way [INSERT] is/are handling negotiations over the federal budget?

63%

74%

56% 61%

50% 53%

9/29/2013 10/6/2013 10/13/2013

Republicans in CongressDemocrats in CongressBarack Obama

% Disapprove

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PARTY IMAGES: REPUBLICAN FAVORABILITY SINKS TO RECORD LOW; FALLS 10% SINCE SEPTEMBER

Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data

51%

55% 54% 57% 55% 61%

56% 55% 52% 59%

52% 48%

55% 56% 53%

41%

46% 45% 46% 47% 43%

52%

52% 50% 43% 45%

53% 47%

55% 51% 48% 51%

36% 42% 41%

34%

42%

44% 42% 39% 38%

28%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100% Democrat

Republican

Please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each of the following parties. How about -- [the Republican Party / the Democratic Party]?

% Favorable

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UNFAVORABLE VIEWS OF THE TEA PARTY HAVE RISEN

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 9-13, 2013

Unfavorable Views of Tea Party Have Nearly Doubled Since 2010

Very Unfavorable Views of Tea Party Have Tripled Since 2010

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PERCEIVED NEED FOR A THIRD PARTY REACHES NEW HIGH

Source: Gallup Poll, October 3-6, 2013

In your view, do the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed?

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GPG Research

GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.

GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex economic and political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.

For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:

Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpgdc.com)