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Public services and austerity October 2015 Contacts: [email protected] [email protected] 020 7347 3000

Public Services and Austerity

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Page 1: Public Services and Austerity

Public services and austerity

October 2015

Contacts:

[email protected]

[email protected]

020 7347 3000

Page 2: Public Services and Austerity

OVERALL VIEWS OF PUBLIC SERVICES AND THE CUTS

• Three in four say they have been little affected by the cuts. Now many

fewer think they have been affected than in 2012, and concern about the

future impact of cuts has also dropped since then.

• This is despite more people thinking that public services have got worse

overall than better – though there has been no change about this since

2013.

• Most also disagree that the government’s policies will improve public

services – although this was similar under New Labour.

Page 3: Public Services and Austerity

3

People do not think they are being affected by

cuts – big increase in those “not at all” affected AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT HAS ANNOUNCED A NUMBER OF SPENDING CUTS TO HELP REDUCE THE NATIONAL DEBT TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, HAVE YOU AND YOUR

FAMILY BEEN AFFECTED BY THE CUTS SO FAR?

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI

8%

8%

25%

15%

49%

39%

10%

37%

8%

2%

November 2012

August 2015

A great deal A fair amount Not very much Not at all Don't know

76% 23%

59% 33%

Page 4: Public Services and Austerity

4

And concern about future effects of cuts decreased

significantly…

AND HOW CONCERNED, IF AT ALL, ARE YOU ABOUT THE EFFECTS OF THE CUTS

ON YOU AND YOUR FAMILY IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI

19%

19%

42%

27%

28%

30%

5%

22%

6%

1%

November 2012

August 2015

Very concerned Fairly concerned Not very concerned Not at all concerned Don't know

52% 46%

33% 61%

Page 5: Public Services and Austerity

5

This is despite people being more likely to think services have

got worse than better – though no change from two years ago

Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015

THINKING ABOUT PUBLIC SERVICES OVERALL, DO YOU THINK THE QUALITY OF PUBLIC SERVICES HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME?

Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

3%

4%

12%

12%

42%

39%

20%

23%

20%

20%

3%

3%

September 2013

September 2015

Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know

16%

40% 15%

43%

Page 6: Public Services and Austerity

6

And most still disagree the government has the right policies

for public services (although was similar under Labour)

On balance, do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

In the long term, this government’s policies will improve the state of Britain's

public services.

Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ every month Source: Ipsos MORI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jun

-01

Nov-0

1

Ap

r-02

Se

p-0

2

Fe

b-0

3

Jul-

03

Dec-0

3

Ma

y-0

4

Oct-

04

Ma

r-0

5

Au

g-0

5

Jan

-06

Jun

-06

Nov-0

6

Ap

r-07

Se

p-0

7

Fe

b-0

8

Jul-

08

Dec-0

8

Ma

y-0

9

Oct-

09

Ma

r-1

0

Au

g-1

0

Jan

-11

Jun

-11

Nov-1

1

Ap

r-12

Se

p-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Jul-

13

Dec-1

3

Ma

y-1

4

Oct-

14

Ma

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

56

37 Agree

Disagree

Page 7: Public Services and Austerity

HEALTH SERVICES

• More people think health and social

care services have got worse than in

2013.

• Users of health services remain as

divided over service quality as two

years ago, while users of GPs have

become more negative.

• Most (55%) are concerned about the

future of the NHS. This is the highest

level of concern since we began

measuring in 2002.

Page 8: Public Services and Austerity

Public is seeing more decline in quality of health and

social care than they were two years ago

8

4%

2%

11%

7%

11%

10%

7%

11%

16%

17%

18%

17%

22%

27%

36%

34%

41%

33%

10%

16%

14%

19%

14%

19%

12%

20%

16%

16%

14%

19%

44%

24%

7%

7%

2%

3%

2013

2015

2013

2015

2013

2015

Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know

GP

surgeries

Hospitals

Care for the

elderly

Base: 1,006 British adults 18 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE?

27% 38%

29% 28%

24% 35%

27% 30%

13% 36%

11% 22%

Page 9: Public Services and Austerity

Users also on balance negative – more so in the case

of GPs

9

9%

5%

11%

7%

10%

10%

13%

17%

16%

19%

19%

17%

27%

30%

36%

33%

42%

32%

13%

15%

15%

19%

14%

20%

19%

26%

17%

17%

14%

19%

12%

7%

5%

5%

1%

2%

2013 (210)

2015 (172)

2013 (888)

2015 (807)

2013 (938)

2015 (904)

Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know

Users of

GP

surgeries

Users of

hospitals

Users of

care for the

elderly

Base: All whose household benefits from named service 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? (ALL WHOSE HOUSEHOLD BENEFITS FROM SERVICE)

27% 39%

29% 28%

26% 36%

27% 32%

22% 41%

22% 32%

Page 10: Public Services and Austerity

10

And when asked about the future of the NHS…

most are concerned THINKING ABOUT THE QUALITY OF THE NHS OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…?

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI

4%

15%

23%

32%

23%

2%

Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know

19%

55%

Page 11: Public Services and Austerity

… and this is the highest ever proportion expecting it

to get worse

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

11 THINKING ABOUT THE QUALITY OF THE NHS OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…?

Source: Ipsos MORI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ma

r-0

2

Oct-

02

Ma

y-0

3

Dec-0

3

Jul-

04

Fe

b-0

5

Se

p-0

5

Ap

r-06

Nov-0

6

Jun

-07

Jan

-08

Au

g-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Oct-

09

Ma

y-1

0

Dec-1

0

Jul-

11

Fe

b-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Ap

r-13

Nov-1

3

Jun

-14

Jan

-15

Au

g-1

5

55

19 Better

Worse

Page 12: Public Services and Austerity

EDUCATION AND SKILLS

• Overall, perceptions of schools and

colleges more positive than negative,

but have become less optimistic over

the last two years – including among

users

• Perceptions of universities, though, are

more negative

• People remain pessimistic about future

opportunities for young people, but are

more optimistic about skills than in

2008

Page 13: Public Services and Austerity

Effect on universities largely unknown, but slightly

more pessimism about schools and colleges than 2013

13

8%

9%

6%

20%

18%

8%

27%

30%

23%

9%

13%

13%

8%

9%

10%

29%

20%

40%

2013

Sep-15

Aug-15

Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know

Universities

Schools and

colleges

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015

Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE?

14% 23%

27% 22%

28% 17%

Page 14: Public Services and Austerity

Users of schools remain positive on balance, but less

so than in 2013

14

12%

14%

11%

31%

23%

17%

27%

28%

29%

12%

17%

19%

10%

14%

17%

5%

4%

6%

2013 (419)

Sep 2015 (413)

Aug 2015 (242)

Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know

Universities

Schools and

colleges

Base: All whose household benefits from named service, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE?

28% 36%

37% 31%

43% 22%

Page 15: Public Services and Austerity

15

We’re evenly split of whether education will to

get better, worse or stay the same THINKING ABOUT THE QUALITY OF EDUCATION OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…?

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI

5%

26%

32%

23%

9%

5%

Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know

31%

32%

Page 16: Public Services and Austerity

And no big shifts in expectations of education

services: more negative than 2000s, but little shift since

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

16 THINKING ABOUT THE QUALITY OF EDUCATION OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…?

Source: Ipsos MORI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ma

y-0

2

Se

p-0

2

Jan

-03

Ma

y-0

3

Se

p-0

3

Jan

-04

Ma

y-0

4

Se

p-0

4

Jan

-05

Ma

y-0

5

Se

p-0

5

Jan

-06

Ma

y-0

6

Se

p-0

6

Jan

-07

Ma

y-0

7

Se

p-0

7

Jan

-08

Ma

y-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Jan

-09

Ma

y-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Jan

-10

Ma

y-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Jan

-11

Ma

y-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Jan

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Se

p-1

5

32

31

Better

Worse

Page 17: Public Services and Austerity

17

Public are more negative than positive about

whether opportunities for young people will improve THINKING ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES FOR YOUNG PEOPLE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…?

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI

5%

28%

19%

28%

17%

3%

Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know

33%

45%

Though 18-24s are the most

optimistic about their

opportunities improving over

the next few years – 55% of

18-24s think young people’s

opportunities will improve

Page 18: Public Services and Austerity

Views of opportunities for young people also little

changed since 2008

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

18 THINKING ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES FOR YOUNG PEOPLE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…?

Source: Ipsos MORI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Se

p-0

7

Jan

-08

Ma

y-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Jan

-09

Ma

y-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Jan

-10

Ma

y-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Jan

-11

Ma

y-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Jan

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Se

p-1

5

45

33 Better

Worse

Page 19: Public Services and Austerity

19

Yet despite negativity about young people’s

opportunities, they are more evenly split on skills THINKING ABOUT SKILLS IN BRITAIN’S WORKFORCE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…?

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI

4%

33%

24%

25%

11%

5%

Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know

37%

36%

Page 20: Public Services and Austerity

And people increasingly optimistic on skills in Britain’s

workforce compared with pessimism in 2008

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

20 THINKING ABOUT SKILLS IN BRITAIN’S WORKFORCE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…?

Source: Ipsos MORI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Se

p-0

7

Jan

-08

Ma

y-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Jan

-09

Ma

y-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Jan

-10

Ma

y-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Jan

-11

Ma

y-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Jan

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Se

p-1

5

36

37

Better

Worse

Page 21: Public Services and Austerity

LOCAL SERVICES AND INFRASTRUCTURE

• Local services not perceived to have

taken a hit in quality in their bread-and-

butter street-scene services – lighting,

cleaning and bin collection.

• Slight declines in perceived quality of local

libraries and leisure centres, but still a

minority are unhappy

• Road maintenance remains the biggest

bugbear (although not quite as bad as two

years ago)

• Perceptions of local bus services and

public transport have also slightly

deteriorated

Page 22: Public Services and Austerity

13%

10%

27%

26%

7%

6%

8%

8%

16%

12%

21%

22%

12%

16%

12%

11%

45%

51%

37%

34%

54%

47%

58%

57%

11%

13%

6%

8%

10%

12%

9%

10%

12%

12%

6%

7%

11%

14%

8%

10%

3%

2%

3%

3%

5%

5%

4%

5%

2013

Aug-15

2013

Sep-15

2013

Aug-15

2013

Aug-15

Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know

Street

lighting

Refuse

collection

Street

cleaning

Recycling

collection

No big shifts in views of local streetscene services – just

slight increases in people saying they’ve got worse

22

Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015

Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout

Anniversary poll

DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE?

19% 20%

20% 17%

19%

26%

22%

15%

22%

21%

48%

25%

48% 12%

29% 23%

Page 23: Public Services and Austerity

15%

12%

9%

7%

14%

10%

18%

20%

11%

12%

11%

14%

44%

46%

35%

35%

38%

33%

9%

10%

9%

14%

4%

9%

6%

6%

7%

9%

3%

6%

8%

6%

29%

23%

30%

29%

2013

Aug-15

2013

Sep-15

2013

Aug-15

Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know

Leisure

centres

Parks and open

spaces

Libraries

Slightly greater shifts towards thinking leisure centres and

libraries have got worse – but relatively few noticing changes

23

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE?

24% 15%

25% 7%

20%

23%

33%

16%

19%

16%

32%

15%

Page 24: Public Services and Austerity

4%

4%

8%

8%

7%

10%

13%

11%

20%

28%

39%

37%

18%

18%

11%

14%

49%

39%

8%

11%

2%

2%

20%

20%

2013

Aug-15

2013

Aug-15

Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know

Bus services

Road

maintenance

Concern about road maintenance still very high, if lower than in

2015, but more likely to think bus services have got worse

24

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE?

19% 25%

21% 19%

11%

57% 14%

67%

Page 25: Public Services and Austerity

13%

11%

17%

14%

20%

16%

12%

10%

15%

16%

19%

21%

16%

19%

17%

16%

35%

40%

47%

47%

49%

43%

45%

42%

13%

19%

10%

11%

5%

12%

14%

15%

10%

10%

6%

5%

4%

7%

8%

13%

7%

4%

1%

1%

5%

4%

3%

5%

2013 (562)

2015 (413)

2013 (795)

2015 (847)

2013 (525)

2015 (509)

2013 (632)

2015 (601)

Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know

Bus

services

Leisure

centres

Parks

and

open

space

Libraries

Users of local services tend to be more positive than

non-users – little change in their views since 2013

25

Base: All whose household benefits from named service, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout

Anniversary poll

DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? (ALL WHOSE HOUSEHOLD BENEFITS FROM SERVICE)

26% 28%

29% 23%

35% 19%

36% 9%

32%

16%

28% 23%

35%

29% 27%

16%

Page 26: Public Services and Austerity

26

Expectations split on future of public transport THINKING ABOUT PUBLIC TRANSPORT OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…?

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI

5%

21%

36%

24%

8%

6%

Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know

26%

32%

Page 27: Public Services and Austerity

Slight decline in optimism since 2008

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

27 THINKING ABOUT PUBLIC TRANSPORT OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…?

Source: Ipsos MORI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ma

r-0

2

Oct-

02

Ma

y-0

3

Dec-0

3

Jul-

04

Fe

b-0

5

Se

p-0

5

Ap

r-06

Nov-0

6

Jun

-07

Jan

-08

Au

g-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Oct-

09

Ma

y-1

0

Dec-1

0

Jul-

11

Fe

b-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Ap

r-13

Nov-1

3

Jun

-14

Jan

-15

Au

g-1

5

26

32

Better

Worse

Page 28: Public Services and Austerity

LOCAL POLICING

• More saying that they feel quality of

police has decreased now than in

2013

• Similarly, a third think quality of local

policing will get worse in the next few

years, and public is more pessimistic

than during the 2000s.

Page 29: Public Services and Austerity

5%

3%

10%

9%

43%

39%

15%

21%

13%

18%

13%

10%

2013

Sep-15

Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know

The police

Fears about declining quality of the force have

increased since 2013

29

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE?

12% 39%

28% 15%

Page 30: Public Services and Austerity

30

A third also expect local policing to get worse in the

next few years THINKING ABOUT THE WAY YOUR AREA IS POLICED OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…?

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI

3% 12%

46%

26%

9%

4%

Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know

15%

35%

Page 31: Public Services and Austerity

People are more pessimistic about policing than in the

2000s

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

31 THINKING ABOUT THE WAY YOUR AREA IS POLICED OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…?

Source: Ipsos MORI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ma

r-0

2

Jun

-02

Se

p-0

2

Dec-0

2

Ma

r-0

3

Jun

-03

Se

p-0

3

Dec-0

3

Ma

r-0

4

Jun

-04

Se

p-0

4

Dec-0

4

Ma

r-0

5

Jun

-05

Se

p-0

5

Dec-0

5

Ma

r-0

6

Jun

-06

Se

p-0

6

Dec-0

6

Ma

r-0

7

Jun

-07

Se

p-0

7

Dec-0

7

Ma

r-0

8

Jun

-08

Se

p-0

8

Dec-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Jun

-09

Se

p-0

9

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Jun

-10

Se

p-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-1

1

Jun

-11

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Jun

-12

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Jun

-13

Se

p-1

3

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Se

p-1

4

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Jun

-15

15

35

Better

Worse

Page 32: Public Services and Austerity

WELFARE

• Concern about the effect of welfare

cuts appears to be growing. Half say

the cuts have gone too far – and

even though on balance people think

they have been necessary, they are

less likely to think this than in 2013

• ABs remain the most likely to believe

the cuts have been necessary, but

much less than in 2013

Page 33: Public Services and Austerity

33

31%

27%

16%

21%

12%

18%

16%

15%

21%

16%

4%

3%

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree

Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know

2015

2013

Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout

Anniversary poll

TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS?

People more likely to agree than disagree that cuts to

welfare gone too far…

I THINK CUTS TO WELFARE AND BENEFITS HAVE GONE TOO FAR

48% 31%

37% 47%

Page 34: Public Services and Austerity

34

29%

22%

30%

25%

11%

16%

9%

17%

16%

17%

6%

3%

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree

Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know

2015

2013

Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS?

…although they also think the cuts have been

necessary – but less so than in 2013

I THINK REDUCTIONS IN SOCIAL WELFARE BENEFITS HAVE BEEN NECESSARY

But people are not

always consistent:

eg 37% of those

who think welfare

cuts have gone too

far also think that

the reductions in

benefits have been

necessary

47% 34%

25% 59%

Page 35: Public Services and Austerity

35

40%

37%

25%

26%

16%

19%

17%

22%

11%

14%

11%

16%

10%

9%

18%

19%

18%

16%

26%

12%

6%

5%

4%

4%

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree

Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know

I think cuts to welfare

and benefits have

gone too far

AB 2013 (334)

Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS?

Social classes DE most likely to think welfare cuts gone

too far, but ABs are moving more in line with them

42% 44%

25%

48%

TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS?

DE 2013 (296)

DE 2015 (245)

AB 2015 (389)

56%

56%

31%

28%

Page 36: Public Services and Austerity

36

23%

22%

38%

21%

27%

20%

27%

32%

11%

15%

9%

15%

10%

14%

11%

15%

22%

24%

10%

15%

8%

5%

5%

3%

Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree

Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know

I think reductions in

social welfare benefits

have been necessary

AB 2013 (334)

Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS?

Most ABs still think cuts to welfare are necessary but

this attitude has softened since 2013

65% 21%

38%

53%

TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS?

AB 2015 (389)

42%

50%

30%

32% DE 2013 (296)

DE 2015 (245)

Page 37: Public Services and Austerity

CUTS AND MISPERCEPTIONS

• People think only 28% of “planned cuts” have been made: this is lower than in 2012, when people thought that 40% of cuts had been made

• People are often very wrong on the nature and scale of spending changes for individual services – eg they think spending has gone down on pensions (when it has gone up) and think it’s gone up on education (when it’s gone down)

Page 38: Public Services and Austerity

38

I WOULD NOW LIKE YOU TO THINK ABOUT PUBLIC SPENDING ON DIFFERENT SERVICES OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS.

FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE TELL ME BY WHAT PERCENT YOU THINK SPENDING HAS INCREASED OR DECREASED IN REAL TERMS OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS? PLEASE GIVE YOUR BEST ESTIMATE IF YOU ARE NOT SURE.

-20% -9%

-12% -6%

4% -3%

-1% -5%

-19% 0%

13% -2%

-13% 1%

-49% -5%

65% 11%

-54%

+44%

+14%

-15%

+19%

-4%

-7%

+6%

+11% Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015

Actual figures are differences between 2014/15 and 2009/10 public sector expenditure on services by sub-function as reported by the

Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses 2015 (2009/10 figures from 2014 publication) and adjusted using GDP deflators given by HM

Treasury [figures in brackets are exact definitions]. * Note that education figures for 2014/15 showed a significant decrease due to a

decreased impact of student loan impairments, which means the reduction from 2009/10 is larger than the reduction in spending in

previous years

Source: Ipsos MORI

Foreign aid [Foreign economic aid]

Housing [housing development: local

authority and other social housing]

Education [all education services from pre-primary

to tertiary and others*]

Pensions and old age benefits [pensions and

old age personal social services]

Transport [national and local roads, local public transport, railway

and other transport]

Other benefits [all social protection not including old age benefits and

pensions]

Health services / NHS [includes medical services

and research and central and other health services]

Defence [includes military, civil, R&D and

other defence and foreign military aid]

Policing [includes immigration and

citizenship and other police services]

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

But they are often very wrong on how spending has actually changed

in the last 5 years – eg they think pension spend has decreased…

Gap

Page 39: Public Services and Austerity

39 AND WHAT PROPORTION OF THE GOVERNMENT’S PLANNED CUTS TO PUBLIC SPENDING DO YOU THINK HAVE BEEN CARRIED OUT SO FAR?

40%

28%

November 2012

August 2015

People think only 28% of planned cuts have been

made – less than they thought in 2012

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI

As clearly more cuts have been carried out in the intervening years (although it is difficult to give comparable figures on this as plans will change over time) this does suggest that expectations of cuts and austerity as ongoing features of public spending are becoming more strongly held (although note there are some methodological differences - 2012 survey was carried out online among 16-75 year olds).

Page 40: Public Services and Austerity

WHAT DO PUBLIC SECTOR WORKERS THINK?

• People working in the public sector are more likely to feel they have been

affected by the cuts so far (29%, compared with 19% of private sector

workers), and are more worried about the future impact of cuts (52% vs 38%).

• They are also more sceptical about the government’s policies for public

services – 70% of public sector workers disagree its policies will improve public

services in the long term, compared with 53% of private sector workers.

• However, there are fewer differences in expectations for the future of individual

public services. Public and private sector workers are equally pessimistic

about the future of the NHS, the environment, opportunities for young people,

and transport, although public sector workers are more pessimistic about the

future for skills in Britain’s workforce.

Page 41: Public Services and Austerity

Public services and austerity

October 2015

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