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Regional Security in the Eastern Mediterranean Nicolai Due-Gundersen
Oval Office for Studies and Research
Introduction Island Division and Maritime Disputes Gas Discoveries and Ambitions Hamas and Hezbollah Temporary Solutions/Conclusion
Agenda
Introduction
1974 North-South split Greek Union Coup 1983: Turkish Republic
of Northern Cyprus 2004: UN
Reunification Rejection and EU assimilation
Grexit considerations and resource coop
Island Division
Cyprus Division: contracts unrecognised
Lebanon-Israel: No accepted delineated borders
UN dilemma for Israel
Maritime Disputes
2009-10: US-Israel venture discovery in Haifa Seabed (Leviathan, Taimur). 26 TCF
2011: Noble Energy discovers Aphrodite Field, Cyp. Approx 7 TcF
Gas Discoveries
(South) Cyprus: Regional LNG hub, refinery for Europe, Egypt
Israel loses Egypt, gains Jord
Israel, Greece, Cyp alliance
Vs Turkey’s ambitions alone; encouraging Leb-Noble field dispute
Ambitions
2006 Hamas Election; 2009 Israeli Invasion
Gaza fields (2000) Israel restricts
Hamas and PA profit; British Gas and Egypt ended
Goods and Services only
Hamas and Hezbollah
Offshore Gaza installation targeted
Distance, isolation= vulnerability
Investor confidence?
2014 Rocket Attacks
Dictated own Lebanese border Israeli projects under threat Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem:
“Lebanon will stand guard in order to protect all its rights—no matter the cost.”
Again, Israeli investor stability?
Hezbollah
US Role: Physical, economic security; integrate East Med with global markets; ensure safety of US citizens, workers
Low oil price; high production costs JV for Cyprus, but Israel (militant activity)? Cyprus with Turkey as obstacle US too stretched for supervision?
Low Oil Prices and Transitional Solutions/ Conclusion
