Pakistan Since Bin Laden:A Mission Report on America’s Most Important Unreliable Ally

Ron Nehring

Today’s Presentation

• Background and findings from a U.S. State Department-sponsored mission to Pakistan, May 16 – 21, 2011.

Why Pakistan Matters

• Nuclear power. Its arsenal cannot be allowed to fall into the hands of extremists.

• Borders Afghanistan, therefore essential to our success there.

Political Situation in Pakistan

• Governed by center-left PPP. Party founded by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in ‘67.

• Parliamentary democracy. President Asif Zardari (PPP) elected by members of Parliament plus provincial legislatures.

• Prime Minister Syed Gilani (PPP).• Main opposition party: center-right

Muslim League. • “Religious” parties fare extremely

poorly in Pak elections.

Pakistan is poor. GDP per capita is $995 (compared to $4,540 in Iran, $3,744 in China, $1,192 in India, and $45,989 in US)

Meeting with Pakistani Members of Parliament. This meeting degenerated into an America-bashing session, with PPP Secretary General Taj Haider attacking US policies while praising China.

Pakistanis Talking Points

• America is unreliable.• Pak helped US during Soviet era in

Afghanistan, then abandoned.• American foreign policy hurts

Pakistan.• Bin Laden raid violated Pakistani

sovereignty.• US financial assistance has too many

conditions attached.• China is great.

Meetings with the Pakistanis

• Degenerated into America-bashing sessions until we provided pushback with questions related to:– Haqqani network– Lashkar-e-Taiba– Hafiz Muhammad Saeed

• After pushback, constructive conversations concerning economy, trade, democracy.

American Aid to Pakistan since 2002

Program or Account Amount (M)Training and equipment $ 212 Counternarcotics (Pentagon) $ 288 Coalition Support Funds (Pentagon) $ 8,881 Pak frontier corp train + equip $ 100 Foreign Military Financing $ 2,160 International Mil Ed + Training $ 18 Intl Narc Control + Law Enf $ 528 NADR (anti-terrorism) $ 90 Pak Counterinsurgency Fund $ 1,900 Total Security-Related $ 14,177

Child Survival and Health $ 221 Development Assistance $ 286 Economic Support Funds $ 4,797 Food Aid $ 413 Human Rights + Democracy Funds $ 17 International Disaster Asst $ 650 Migration + Refugee $ 152 Total Economic-Related $ 6,536

Total Security + Economic Aid $ 20,713

Pakistan spends ~$6 billion annually

on defense.

Common American Problems in Diplomacy

• Treating diplomacy as something other than advocacy for America.

• Underestimating the impact undercurrents on the “citizens” we meet.

• “Clientitis”• “Mirror Imaging”

Meeting with Punjab Assembly Deputy Speaker Rana Mashhood Ahmad Khan. The PML(N) is in control of this province, and advocated for trade, lower taxes and regulations, and no US aid.

Visit to the Punjab Provincial Assembly.

Recommended Reading on Foreign Affairs and Diplomacy

Pakistan Since Bin Laden:A Mission Report on America’s Most Important Least Trusted Ally

Ron Nehring