Saudi Arabia-HamasIakovos Alhadeff

A very interesting article by Stratfor, titled “Saudi Arabia and Hamas: A

Pragmatic Partnership”, July 2015, for the relations between Saudi Arabia

and Hamas. Hamas is the Islamist organization that runs Gaza, and it is

connected to the Muslim Brotherhood. See map 1.

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http :// www - tc . pbs . org / prod - media / newshour / photos /2013/01/21/ Israel -

travel - map _ edit _ slideshow . jpg

According to Stratfor, during the last months Saudi Arabia and Hamas have

been trying to improve their relations, and it mentions that if Saudi Arabia

manages to reestablish her influence over Hamas, she could use Hamas,

together with Egypt and Israel, in order to contain Iran in the Eastern

Mediterranean Sea. Please note that Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Israel, they all

face two common enemies i.e. Turkey and Iran. According to Stratfor, in

2000 Saudi Arabia was providing almost 50% of Hamas financing, but due

to Hamas suicide bombings in Israel, many western countries started

focusing on Hamas, and Saudi Arabia decided to gradually loosen her ties

with the organization.

In 2007 Saudi Arabia tried to mediate in order for a coalition government to

be formed between Hamas in Gaza and Fatah in West bank, but that did not

work out, and Iran found a chance to increase its control over Hamas. Iran

became Hamas main supporter until 2012, when Hamas decided to support

the Sunni Islamists in Syria, who were fighting Bashar al Assad, the main

Iranian ally. From that moment Hamas came mainly under the influence of

Turkey and Qatar, without ever completely breaking her ties with Iran.

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I must also add that Fatah is the political wing of the organization that was

established by Yasser Arafat many decades ago. Fatah and Hamas, even

though they are both Palestinian political organizations, they do not get

along very well, because Hamas is an Islamist organization while Fatah is a

socialist organization. In North Africa and the Middle East the most

common political division is between Islamists and socialists. Both of them

are Muslims and they believe in Islam, but Islamists believe that the state

should according to the Islamic Law i.e. Sharia Law and the Koran, while

socialists believe in a secular state, and they believe that Islam should have a

secondary role, and not be involved in the way the state is run. Muamar

Gaddafi in Libya, Bashar al Assad in Syria, Saddam Hussein in Iraq, and

many others, were all socialist leaders. On the other hand the leadership of

Turkey today i.e. Erdogan, the leadership of Saudi Arabia, of Qatar, of the

United Arab Emirates and of Iran, they are all leaderships of the Islamist

type today.

For Hamas and Fatah see also the following Wall Street Journal article, titled

“5 Things You Need to Know About Hamas and Fatah”, August 2014.

http :// blogs . wsj . com / briefly /2014/08/27/5- things - you - need - to - know - about -

hamas - and - fatah /

I will now get back to Stratfor’s article. The article mentions the recent visit

of Khaled Meshaal, the leader of Hamas, to Saudi Arabia, in an attempt to

persuade the Saudis to partially cooperate with Iran against ISIS i.e. the

Islamic State. Stratfor does not mention it, but it is a well known fact that

ISIS main supporter is Turkey. That does not mean of course that Turkey

and ISIS are the same thing. It simply means that the country with the

greatest influence in ISIS is Turkey.

The growing presence of ISIS in Gaza is a problem for Hamas, because

Turkey has no motive to help Hamas against the Islamic State, because

Hamas is influenced by Iran too, while there is no Iranian influence in ISIS.

That’s why Hamas is asking the Saudis to cooperate with their great enemy,

the Iranians, against ISIS, because ISIS i.e. Turkey, is a threat to both Iran

and Saudi Arabia. For the confrontation between ISIS and Hamas in Gaza

see the following BBC article, titled “Can Hamas hold back Islamic State in

Gaza?”, June 2015.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-33110099

The article also mentions the problems that could arise for Saudi Arabia if

she finally decides to support Hamas against ISIS. One problem would be

that the relations between Saudi Arabia and Fatah in West Bank could

deteriorate, and Iran could get a chance to approach Fatah. Another problem,

according to Stratfor, is that if Saudi Arabia starts funding Hamas, and

Hamas keep attacking Egypt and Israel, Saudi Arabia could have problems

with Egypt and Israel.

One could wonder how would it be possible for Hamas to receive funding

from Saudi Arabia, and at the same time keep attacking Egypt and Israel,

since the two countries cooperate with Saudi Arabia against Turkey and

Iran. Things are not simple. Let’s say that today Hamas receives 1.000 euro

from Turkey, Iran and Qatar, some of it in the form of money and some of it

in the form of armaments. Now let’s suppose that Saudi Arabia pays Hamas

another 1.000 euro annually. Now Saudi Arabia would provide 50% of

Hamas funding, and therefore Iran, Turkey and Qatar would still have

influence over Hamas. Besides Hamas has its own agenda.

Therefore if under the new circumstances Hamas kept attacking Israel and

Egypt from Gaza, even if the attacks were less frequent due to Saudi

influence, these attacks would be carried out by a war machine with an

annual budget of 2.000 euros annually, and half of it would be Saudi money.

Therefore the attacks against Israel and Egypt would be partially financed by

Saudi Arabia, and that would be a huge problem for the relations between

Israel and Egypt with Saudi Arabia.

I must also add a different perspective for the relation between Hamas and

Saudi Arabia. If at some point Egypt or Israel improve their relations with

Turkey, Saudi Arabia could use Hamas in Gaza to attack them, exactly in the

same way that Turkey and Iran are doing now. Don’t forget that Israel was

one of Turkey’s closest allies just a few years ago, and Egypt, under the

leadership of Mohamed Morsi in 2012, became an ally of Turkey too, until

Morsi was overtuned by General al-Sisi. Therefore one should not take

today’s alliances for granted.

For Stratfor’s article see the following link:

“Saudi Arabia and Hamas: A Pragmatic Partnership”, 25η Ιουλίου 2015

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/saudi-arabia-and-hamas-pragmatic-

partnership?utm_source=paidlist-a&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=*|

DATE:|*&utm_content=Daily+Intelligence+Brief%3A+July+27%2C+2015

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