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On the eve of the independence referendum Ipsos MORI’s new poll for STV News has shown significant gains for the Yes campaign, putting the outcome of the vote in the balance. Among those who said that they are ‘absolutely certain’ to vote tomorrow, 49% say they intend to vote No (down five percentage points from August), 47% say they will vote Yes (up by seven points), while 5% remain undecided.
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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2014
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Should Scotland be an independent country?
Voting intention amongst those certain to vote
(excluding undecided)
Base: All certain to vote (excluding undecided) (1230). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014
Yes 49%
No 51%
All certain to vote (excluding undecided)
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Should Scotland be an independent country?
Referendum voting intention excluding undecided
– recent trend
Base: All certain to vote excluding undecided (1230) . Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14
No
Yes
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Should Scotland be an independent country?
Referendum voting intention
Base: All (1377); all certain to vote (1313). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014
Yes 42%
No 45%
Undecided 13%
All voters
Yes 43%
No 45%
Undecided 12%
Certain to vote
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Should Scotland be an independent country?
Referendum voting intention – recent trend
Base: All certain to vote (1313). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14
No
Yes
Undecided
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Voting intention by gender
Base: All certain to vote (1313). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014
50%
40%
Yes
No
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Ja
n-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Se
p-1
2
No
v-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Se
p-1
3
No
v-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Men Women
% voting Yes
36%
50%
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47%
38%
13%
Voting intention by age group
Base: All certain to vote (1313). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014
Yes
No
54%
43%
47%
39%
13%
34%
55%
9%
16-24 25-34
35-54 55+ 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Ja
n-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
May-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Se
p-1
2
No
v-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Se
p-1
3
No
v-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Se
p-1
4
16-24* 25-34 35-54 55+
*Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds
% voting Yes
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Voting intention by levels of deprivation
Base: All certain to vote (1313). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014
59%
36%
56%
Most deprived areas Least deprived
areas
Yes
No
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Ja
n-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Se
p-1
2
No
v-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Se
p-1
3
No
v-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Mar-
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Ma
y-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Most deprived areas Least deprived areas
% voting Yes
30%
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Which way are you most inclined to vote?
Which way are undecided voters leaning?
Base: All undecided (163). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014
Yes 27%
No 24%
Undecided 49%
All undecided voters
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Regardless of how you intend to vote in the referendum, what do you think the result will be? Do you think…?
Outcome
Base: All (1377). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014
Yes will win 31%
No will win 44%
Don't know 25%
Outcome
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How likely would you be to vote in the referendum on Thursday, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and 1 that you would be absolutely certain NOT to vote
Turnout is likely to be high
Base: All. Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14
55+
All
16-24
% Absolutely certain to vote
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As far as you know, are you registered to vote in the Scottish independence referendum?
Voter registration
Base: All (1397). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+,
September 15th – 16th 2014
Yes 98%
No 1%
Don't know 1%
Registered to vote?
Registered before 88%
First time registered
12%
Registered before?
Base: All (1377). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults
16+, September 15th – 16th 2014
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Technical details
• This presents the topline results from the Scottish Public
Opinion Monitor Wave 21
• Results are based on a survey of 1,377 respondents (adults
aged 16+ who are registered to vote, 1,397 including those
not registered to vote) conducted by telephone
• Fieldwork dates: 15th September – 16th September 2014
• Data are weighted by: age, sex, and working status using
census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private
sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly
Public Sector Employment series data
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to
computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of
“don’t know” categories
• Results are based on all respondents (1,377) unless
otherwise stated
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Thank you [email protected] | 0131 240 3269
@IpsosMORIScot