Upload
gaia-manco
View
210
Download
3
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Why it’s time to leave GDP behind
Robert Costanza• Chair in Public Policy
Crawford School of Public Policy
Australian National University
Canberra ACT 0200, Australia
• Editor in Chief, Solutions (www.thesolutionsjournal.org)
Beyond-GDP in Africa: Innovative Ideas for a Regional Dashboard
October 28, 2014
Human influence on the earth system is now so large, that a new
geologic epoch (the Anthropocene) has begun. We now live in a “Full
World”
Business as usual is not an option
PLANETARY BOUNDARIES: THERE
ARE FUNDAMENTAL ECOLOGICAL
CONSTRAINTS Rockström, J., et al. 2009.
A safe operating space
for humanity. Nature
461:472-475
Steffen, W., J. Rockström,
and R. Costanza. 2011.
How Defining Planetary
Boundaries Can
Transform Our
Approach to Growth.
Solutions. Vol 2, No. 3,
May 2011
Fair distribution is essential to quality of life
VisionTools &Analysis
Implementation
PracticalProblemSolving
How the world isHow we
would like it to
be
Labor
Land
Economic
Process
Cultural
Norms and
Policy
Individual
Utility/welfare
Consumption
Improvement
Education,
Training,
Building
Investment
Property rights
Private Public
Capital
(Built)
“Empty World” Vision of the Economy
Research
Goods
and
Services
GDP
a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) measures
“everything except that which makes life worthwhile”.
Robert F. Kennedy 1968
.
Human Capital EconomicProductionProcess
GoodsandServices
EvolvingCulturalNorms andPolicy
Well Being(Individual andCommunity)
Consumption(based on changing,adaptingpreferences)
Education, training,
research.
Building
Investment(decisions about, taxescommunity spending,education, science andtechnology policy, etc., basedon complex propertyrights regimes)
Individual Public
GDP
Wastes
Common
Ecologicalservices/amenities
negative impacts on all forms of capital
Restoration,
ConservationNatural Capital
Built Capital
Complex propertyrights regimes
SolarEnergy
SocialCapital
Waste heat
Institutional
rules, norms, etc.
Materially closed earth system
“Full World” Vision of the Whole System
From: Costanza, R., R. de Groot, P. Sutton, S. van
der Ploeg, S. Anderson, I. Kubiszewski, S. Farber,
and R. K. Turner. 2014. Changes in the global value
of ecosystem services. Global Environmental
Change 26:152-158.
…we estimated the loss of eco-services from 1997 to 2011 due to land use change
at
$4.3–20.2 trillion/yr.
From: Costanza, R. B. Fisher, et al. 2007. Quality of Life: An Approach Integrating Opportunities,
Human Needs, and Subjective Well-Being. Ecological Economics 61: 267-276
PERMA: Well-being has five measurable
elements that count toward it
• Positive Emotion (of which happiness and life
satisfaction are aspects)
• Engagement (being in flow, being one with the
music)
• Good Relationships (social capital)
• Meaning and Purpose (belonging to and serving
something you believe is bigger than you are)
• Accomplishment, Achievement, and Mastery
Martin SeligmanZellerbach Family
Professor of
Psychology, University
of Pennsylvania
Positive Psychology
Goal
BasicFramework
Non-environmentallyadjusted measures
Environmentallyadjusted measures
AppropriateValuationMethods
___________
Marketed
value ofmarketed goods
and servicesproduced and
consumed in aneconomy
GNP(Gross National
Product)
GDP(Gross Domestic
Product)
NNP(Net National Product)
NNP’(Net National Product
including non-produced assetts)
Market values
EconomicIncomeWeak
Sustainability
1 + non-marketed goods
and servicesconsumption
ENNP(Environmental NetNational Product)
SEEA(System of
EnvironmentalEconomic Accounts)
1 + Willingnessto Pay BasedValues (see
Table 2)
___________
StrongSustainability
2 + preserveessential natural
capital
SNI(Sustainable National
Income)
SEEA(System of
EnvironmentalEconomic Accounts)
2 + ReplacementCosts,+
ProductionValues
Economic Welfare
value of the wefareeffects of income and
other factors(including
distribution,household work, loss
of natural capitaletc.)
MEW(Measure of Economic
Welfare)
ISEW(Index of SustainableEconomic Welfare)
3 +ConstructedPreferences
HumanWelfare
assessment ofthe degree towhich human
needs arefulfilled
HDI(Human
Development Index)
HNA(Human NeedsAssessment)
4 +ConsensusBuildingDialogue
A range of goals for national accounting and their corresponding frameworks,measures, and valuation methods
from: Costanza, R., S. Farber, B. Castaneda and M. Grasso. 2000. Green national accounting: goals and methods. Chapter in: Cleveland, C. J., D. I. Stern and R. Costanza (eds.) The nature of economics and the economics of nature. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, England (in press)
GPI(Genuine Progress
Indicator)
SWB(Subjective Well-
Being)
Table 1. Some alternative National Indicators of Welfare and Well-Being.
Indicator Type Units Domains Indicators Explanation Area coverageTemporal Coverage
References Website
Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW) and Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI)
GDP modification $ 4 26Personal Consumption Expenditures weighted by income distribution, with volunteer and household work added and environmental and social costs subtracted.
17 countries, several states and regions
1950-various 1-3 http://genuineprogress.net/
Genuine SavingsIncome accounts modification
$ 3 5level of saving after depreciation of produced capital; investments in human capital ; depletion of minerals, energy, and forests; and damages from local and global air pollutants are accounted for
140 countries 1970-2008 4,5
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOP
ICS/ENVIRONMENT/EXTEEI/0,,contentMDK:20502
388~menuPK:1187778~pagePK:148956~piPK:2166
18~theSitePK:408050,00.html
Inclusive Wealth IndexCapital accounts modification
$ 4 8 Asset wealth including, built, human, and natural resources 20 countries 1990-2008 6 http://www.ihdp.unu.edu/article/iwr
Australian Unity Well-Being Index Survey-based index Index # 14 14 Annual survey of various aspects of well-being and quality of life Australia2001-present 7
http://www.deakin.edu.au/research/a
cqol/auwbi/index.php
World Values Survey Survey-based index Index # 10 100'sPeriodic (5 "waves" so far) survey of a broad range of variables. Most used for international comparisons is ranking of "how satisfied are you with your life?" question.
73 countries1981-2008 intermittent 8,9 http://www.wvsevsdb.com
Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index Survey-based index Index # 6 39Annual survey in six domains: live evaluation, physical health, emotional health, healthy behavior, work environment, and basic assets
50 states in US2008-present 10 http://www.well-beingindex.com/
Gross National Happiness Survey-based index Index # 9 33Detailed in-person survey around nine domains: psychological well-being, standard of living, governance, health, education, community vitality, cultural diversity, time use, and ecological diversity
Bhutan 2010 11
Human Development Index (HDI) Composit Index Index # 3 4Index of GDP/person, spending on health and education, and life expectancy
177 countries1980-present 12 http://hdr.undp.org/en/
Happy Planet Index Composit Index Index # 3 3 HPI = subjective well being * life expectancy / ecological footprint 153 countries 3 yrs 13,14 http://www.happyplanetindex.org/
Canadian Index of Well-Being Composit Index Index # 8 80Includes community vitality, democratic engagement, education, environment, population, leisure, living standards, and time use
Canada1994-present 15
https://uwaterloo.ca/canadian-index-
wellbeing/
National Well-Being Index Composit Index Index # 5 5proxies for built, human, natural and social capital with weights based on regression with subjective well-being
56 countries 1 yr 16,17
OECD Better Life Index Composit Index Index # 11 25Includes housing, income, jobs community education, environment, civic engagement, health, life satisfaction, saftey, and work-life balance
36 OECD countries
1 yr 18,19 http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org
Well-Being of Nations Composit Index Index # 20 63 63 indicators in 20 domains weighted and ranked 180 countries 1990-2000 20http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/dat
a/set/cesic-wellbeing-of-nations
Sustainable Society Index Composit Index Index # 5 22 22 indicators in 5 domains ranked with various weightings 150 countries 2 yrs 21 http://www.ssfindex.com/
Source: Deaton, 2008.
United States GDP/capita and GPI/capita
From: Kubiszewski, I., R. Costanza et al. 2013. Beyond GDP: Measuring and Achieving
Global Genuine Progress. Ecological Economics 93:57-68
From: Kubiszewski, I., R. Costanza et al. 2013. Beyond GDP: Measuring and
Achieving Global Genuine Progress. Ecological Economics 93:57-68
GPI /capita for the 17 countries for which it has been estimatedFrom: Kubiszewski, Costanza et al. 2013. Beyond GDP: Measuring and Achieving Global Genuine
Progress. Ecological Economics 93:57-68
From: Kubiszewski, Costanza et al. 2013. Beyond
GDP: Measuring and Achieving Global Genuine
Progress. Ecological Economics 93:57-68
Economic growth Un-Economic growth
Building the future we desire
requires that we measure
what we want, remembering
that it is better to be
approximately right than
precisely wrong.
OverarchingGoal:aprosperous,highqualityoflifethatisequitablysharedandsustainableEfficientAlloca on:BuildingALivingEconomy
FairDistribu on:Protec ngCapabili esforFlourishing
SustainableScale:StayingWithinPlanetaryBoundaries
An Overarching Goal for the UN Sustainable Development Goals
Robert Costanza1, Jacqueline McGlade2, Hunter Lovins3, and Ida Kubiszewski1
1. Professor and Chair in Public Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, the Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
2. Chief Scientist, United Nations Environment Program, Nairobi, Kenya 3. President, Natural Capital Solutions, Longmont, Colorado 4. Senior Lecturer, Crawford School of Public Policy, the Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
To appear in Solutions (www.thesolutionsjournal.org)
Figure S1. Relationship between the overall goal of sustainable well-being and the subjective and objective
elements that contribute to it. Only the items in black are currently partially picked up in GDP. Double-
headed arrows indicate that influences go in both directions and that all elements are interconnected.
Source: www.asap4all.org
Fig. 1 – Scatterplot of real vs. predicted
values for those countries where both
data are available (r=0.90 ** ).
www.asap4all.com
Thank You