Anastasia Gage - high fertility and african migration to the eu

High Fertility and African

Migration to the European Union

Anastasia Gage, PhD

Tulane University

Objectives

• Summarize trends in African migration to EU

• Present fertility trends in major countries of origin, focusing on education differentials

• Discuss international migration theory and role of fertility as a push factor

• Examine evidence of how fertility affects potential for/persistence of African migration to EU

• Present possible program and policy implications

Background

• Europe hosted 76.1 million international migrants in 2015, a considerable increase from 49.2 million in 1990

• In 2014, more than 625,000 asylum applications recorded in the EU-28

• Number of African asylum applicants rose by more than 50,000 in the EU-28 between 2013 and 2014

• In 2014, 28 percent of all asylum applicants in EU-28 were Africans (from 53 countries)

• Eritreans represented 21 percent of all African asylum applicants in the EU-28 in 2014, an increase from 12 percent in 2013.

Asylum Applicants to the European Union by Citizenship and

Year: Selected African Countries, 2008-2014

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Nu

mb

er

of

Ap

pli

can

ts

Trends in Asylum Applications to the EU

CD

ER

SO

GM

ML

NG

SN

GN

Source: Eurostat Database

Map of World Conflicts in 2014

Source: Pettersson and Wallensteen, 2015.

Top 10 Countries of Origin of African Asylum

Applicants to the EU

2010

1,490

1,500

2,305

2,665

3,585

4,540

4,895

5,525

6,805

14,360

Cameroon

Cote d'Ivoire

Sudan

Zimbabwe

Algeria

Eritrea

Guinea

DR Congo

Nigeria

Somalia

2014

6,245

6,375

6,435

6,715

7,360

11,530

12,945

16,490

20,065

36,945

Sudan

Guinea

Senegal

Algeria

DR Congo

The Gambia

Mali

Somalia

Nigeria

Eritrea

Source: Eurostat Database

There are large variations in fertility levels across

Africa

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1970-75 1990-95 2005-2010 2010-2015 2025-2030

Tota

l Fe

rtil

ity

Ra

te

Trends in the Total Fertility Rate, UN Projections

Africa

Eastern Africa

Middle Africa

Northern Africa

Southern Africa

Western Africa

Europe

Source: United Nations, 2014

Fertility decline is stalling in African countries with the largest number

of asylum applicants to the European Union in 2014

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Around 1970 1985 1995 2005 2015

Tota

l Fe

rtil

ity

Ra

te

Trends in the Total Fertility Rate

CD

ER

GM

ML

NG

SN

SO

GN

Source: DHS and UNDP_WFD_2012_ASFR

Women with more than secondary education tend to

have fertility rates that are closer to replacement levels

6.9

5.4

3.6

2.4

5.5

4.2

3.12.6

None Primary Secondary Higher

Eritrea

1995 2002

Source: DHS

Trends in the Total Fertility Rate by Women’s

Educational Level

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1987 1995-96 2001 2006 2012-13

MALI

Total None Primary Secondary Higher

Source: STATCOMPILER


Educational Level

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1990 1999 2003 2008 2010 2013

NIGERIA




Educational Level

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1986 1992-93 1997 2005 2006 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014

SENEGAL



Total Fertility Rate and Wanted Total Fertility Rate:

Uneducated Women vs Higher Educated Women

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1987 1995-96 2001 2006 2012-13

MALI

TFR-None WTFR-None TFR-Higher WTFR-HigherSource: STATCOMPILER



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1990 1999 2003 2008 2013

NIGERIA

TFR-None WTFR-None TFR-Higher WTFR-Higher




0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1986 1992-93 1997 2005 2010-11 2014

SENEGAL





0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1999 2005 2012

GUINEA



Total Fertility Rates and Contraceptive Prevalence Rates

(Most Recent Survey), Sub-Saharan Africa

y = -0.0211x + 5.4463

R² = 0.0566

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Tota

l Fe

rtil

ity

Ra

te

Contraceptive Prevalence %

Source: StatCompiler http://beta.statcompiler.com; accessed January 30, 2016

“Are the forces that drive Africans to migrate

across international borders the same as

those that drove poor Europeans to seek a

better life in the New World a century ago?

Are these forces likely to intensify or weaken

in the future? Or, do Africans move across

borders mainly in response to political

upheaval and civil war?” (Hatton and

Williamson, 2003, p. 466)

What is the Role of Fertility as a Driver

of African Migration to the EU?

International Migration Theory

• Neoclassical economic theory– Wage differentials between sending and receiving regions

• Dual labor market– International labor migrations stems from labor demands in the

labor-intensive segments of industrialized (receiving) countries; demand for cheap migrant labor in informal sectors

• New economics of labor migration– International migration of a family member is a strategy for

reducing risk of insufficient household income

• Relative deprivation theory– Incentive to migrate is higher in countries that experience

greater economic inequality

International Migration Theory Contd.

• World systems theory– Incentive to migrate stems from lagging living conditions and

economic stagnation in countries of origin resulting from trade between countries with weaker economies and countries with more advanced economies

• Network theory– Interpersonal linkages between migrant networks in destination

countries and potential migrants in origin countries

• Institutional theory– Large inflow of international migrants induces organizations

(legal or illegal) to provide for transport, labor contracts, etc. and explain the course of international migration flows over time

International Migration Theory:

Demographic Explanations

• Push effects of sustained high levels of fertility accompanied by declining mortality

– Increased competition for land and employment push people to migrate

– Young age structure – young people more likely to move

– Environmental hypothesis: Rising agrarian population density, climate change, and environmental degradation stimulate outmigration from rural areas then emigration

– Youth bulge hypothesis: Large number of young people, concentrated in urban areas; high pressure on employment, education, social services lead to political instability which stimulates migration

International Migration Theory:

Demographic Explanations

• Pull effects of low fertility rates in industrialized countries

– Shortages that increase employers’ interests in imported workers

• Role of governments

– Mass emigrations due to war, violence, persecution, human rights abuse, mass starvation, and/or ethnic tensions

– Policies in origin countries and destination countries

Evidence of High Fertility as Push Factor?

• There are few African countries in which more than 10 percent of the population has emigrated

• Insights from Hatton and Williamson (2003):

• European emigration in late 19th Century

– Real wage gaps between sending and receiving regions

– Population growth (“demographic booms”) in low-wage sending regions

• African emigration to Europe in 21st century

– Real wage gaps between sending and receiving regions

– Population growth in low-wage sending regions

Total Fertility Rate Around 1985 and Emigrant Stock

as a Percentage of the Population in 2013, Africa

y = -0.4072x + 8.7283

R² = 0.0057

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 2 4 6 8 10

Em

igra

tio

n S

tock

as

% o

f P

op

ula

tio

n

Total Fertility Rate

Source: UNDP_WFD_2012_ASFR; Migration and Remittances Factbook 2016

Summary

• Fertility decline slowed down in sub-Saharan Africa in recent decades and lagging in West and Middle Africa

• Educated African women tend to have fewer children than their uneducated counterparts

• Some African fertility is unwanted but contraceptive use is low

• Theoretical explanations useful but not convincing about high fertility as predominant explanation for African migration to the EU

• Acknowledged that:– High fertility creates rapid population growth; rapid growth of cohort of

potential migrants

– Rapid population growth constrains resources for economic development and growth and family welfare, and triggers economic migration, political instability ,and refugee flows.

– Agree with Hatton and Williamson’s conclusion: “If the income gap between Africa and the OECD countries continues to increase then this will add further fuel to out-of-Africa emigration pressure which may continue long after those driven by demographic forces have ceased” (p.483)

Education, Fertility, and International Migration

Net

international

migration

Source: Adapted from Crespo Cuaresma et al., 2014

Enabling factors:

• Good governance

• Good health

Program and Policy Implications

• Improve the quantity and quality of schooling

for girls

• Expand access to family planning services

• Generate employment opportunities and

bring job market into 21st century

• Cannot be done without good governance

References

• Crespo Cuaresman, J., Lutz, W., & Sanderson, W. C. (2014). Is the demographic dividend an education dividend?

Demography, 51:299–315. DOI 10.1007/s13524-013-0245-x.

• Hatton, T. J., & Williamson, J. G. (2003). Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration out of Africa. The Scandinavian

Journal of Economics, 105(3): 465–486. DOI: 10.1111/1467-9442.t01-2-00008.

• De Haas, H. (2008). The Myth of Invasion: The Inconvenient Realities of African Migration to Europe. Third World Quarterly, .

29 (7): 1305-1322.

• Jennissen, R. (2007). Causality Chains in the International Migration Systems Approach. Population Research and Policy

Review, 26(4): 411-436.

• Pettersson, T., & Wallensteen, P. (2015). Armed Conflicts, 1946-2014. Journal of Peace Research 52(4): 536-55. doi:

10.1177/0022343315595927.

• Teitelbaum, M. S. (2005). Intra- and inter-national balances and migration. Genus, Vol. 61, No. 3/4: 193-212.

• United Nations (2014). World Fertility Patterns 2013. New York: United Nations.

http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/fertility/world-fertility-patterns-2013.pdf

• United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). Trends in International Migrant

Stock: Migrants by Destination and Origin (United Nations database, POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2015).

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Anastasia Gage - high fertility and african migration to the eu