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•Risingemissionsofcarbondioxide(CO2)andothergreenhousegasesaretrappingmoreheatintheatmosphereandoceans—rapidlychangingtheglobalclimate
•AsoceansabsorbmoreCO2theybecomemoreacidic,threateningtoundomarinefoodchains
•Sincethe1880s,theworld’soceanshavebecome30percentmoreacidicandhaverisenbyabout20centimetres.Sealevelscontinuetorise.
•CO2isreleasedwhenweburnfossilfuels—suchascoal,gasandoil—orwhenforestsarecutdown
•InMarch2015,theworldhitadangerousmilestonewhentheaverageconcentrationofCO2intheairsurpassed400partspermillion(ppm)-40%higherthanCO2levelsbeforetheIndustrialRevolutionstarted
What is Climate Change?
•UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)andtheKyotoProtocol
•TheAsiaPacificPartnershipandagreementsundertheG8
•December2015Parisagreementconsolidatedyearsofnegotiationswithagreementamong188countriestolimitcarbondioxideemissions
•Policyresponseshavebeenledbyinternationalnegotiation-sofarlargelyineffectiveatthenationallevel
Action on Climate Change
•Risingsealevelswillmakemanysmallislandstatesuninhabitable
•Droughtsandwaterscarcitywillruincropproductivityintraditionallyfertileregions
•Increaseinfloodsandtheintensityofstormswilldestroyessentialpublicinfrastructure
•Extremeweather—notwarfare,volcanoes,ortsunami—isnowtheprimaryreasonhumanbeingsaredisplaced.
•Droughts,wildfires,floods,powerfulhurricanes,superstorms.Displaced157.8MillionPeopleFrom2008to2014
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
•Climatechangewillforcepeopletofleetheirhomes,villages,citiesandcountriesonanunprecedentedscale
•UNHCRpredictsthatinthecomingdecades,climatechangewillbecomethebiggestdriverofpopulationdisplacementworldwide
•Thenumberofpeopledisplacedbyclimatechangewillgreatlyoutstripexistingflowsofrefugees
•Nointernationalconsensusorlegalframeworkbeendeveloped,todealwiththisexpectedmassmovementofpeople
Climate change impacts and forced displacement
•Peopledisplacedbyclimatechangedonotfallunderthenarrowdefinitionof‘refugee’inthe1951RefugeeConvention
•Littlepoliticalmobilizationtoamendthedefinitionof‘refugee’
•TheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)alsofailstoaddressthesituationofthosedisplacedbyclimatechange
•UNHCRrecommendationsonaddressinghumanmobilityinthecontextofclimatechangewerescrappedinthefinaltextoftheParisAgreement
Action on Climate Displacement
•NansenPrinciplesdevelopedin2011isthemostpromisinginternationalframework
•ThePrinciplescontainabroadsetofrecommendations‘toguideresponsestosomeoftheurgentandcomplexchallengesraisedbydisplacementinthecontextofclimatechangeandotherenvironmentalhazards’.
•Effortstoembedtheseprinciplesinanewbindinginternationalagreementhavesofarbeenunsuccessful
•NorwayandSwitzerlandestablishedtheNansenInitiativetobuildconsensusamonginterestedstatesabouthowbesttoaddresscross-borderdisplacement
The Nansen Principles
PACIFICISLANDNATIONSEstimated 665,000 - 1.7 million Pacific Islanders will be
displaced or forced to migrate by 2050
Rising sea levels
Criticism of developing nations carbon emissions