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© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Emerce Conversion: The personalisation spectrum Jamie Brighton | Strategic Marketing, Adobe
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Consumers expect a relevant, engaging experience – data driven personalisation from unknown visitor to authenticated customer is the key.
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Key Takeaways
Personalisation should be approached as a
strategy.
1 Build a solid
optimisation platform by avoiding common
mistakes.
2 Use statistical methods
and automation to enhance your
personalisation.
3
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Adobe’s definition of personalisation
Personalisation is the use of
data to deliver a relevant and
engaging experience to a
consumer across channels and devices and the ability to measure its impact
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
10% Conversion rates
14% Lift in RPV
Why this is important
19% Uplift in sales
14% Click-through rates
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Advocacy Cross-sell/up-sell Awareness Consideration Self-identification
Authenticated Anonymous
Rules-based targeting of known customers
Campaign planning & orchestration
Cross-channel execution
Integrated known customer profile
Data – Content – APIs – Core Services
Algorithmic-based targeting & decisioning
A/B & multivariate testing
Conversion optimization
Product recommendations
Web/Mobile Personalization
Display Advertising Personalization
Direct Personalization
Advertising personalization
Audience Management
Anonymized data
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Standard customer types
Anonymous visitor Visitor that engages with the brand through paid, owned or earned media without providing PII.
Authenticated customer Visitor that has provided PII to the brand (and consent to use that PII in communications) and is receiving a direct communication or is authenticated/logged in.
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Standard data types
First-party Data collected directly by the organization.
Second-party Data shared by a trusted source.
Third-party Aggregated data from other sources.
• Web behavior • Survey responses • PII examples:
− Email address − Postal address − Telephone number − Social Security number
• Data shared between a credit card company and a co-brand partner such as an airline
• The airline provides loyalty program data to the credit card company
• The credit card company provides spend pattern data to the airline
• May be PII
• Data purchased from providers like Bizo, Exelate or Acxiom
• Demographic data • Spend-pattern data • Geographic data
$
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Key Takeaways
Personalisation should be approached as a
strategy.
1 Build a solid
optimisation platform by avoiding common
mistakes.
2 Use statistical methods
and automation to enhance your
personalisation.
3
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Key Questions to Ask: • Where are the 800lb gorillas? • Which pages are cash cows? • Do I have any low performers?
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Potential testing pitfalls and how to avoid them
§ Choosing the wrong metric
§ Not designing your test
§ Stopping the test early
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Click-through rate or time-on-site may not measure what you think
Time Spent on Site Click-Through-Rate
Free iPad!!
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Choose the metric closest to profit that has enough traffic
CTR
Add to Cart
Revenue
Profit
Lifetime Profit
Higher traffic Less variance
Closer to business goals
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Potential testing pitfalls and how to avoid them
§ Choosing the wrong metric
§ Not designing your test
§ Stopping the test early
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Test design: you have five levers
§ Minimum detectable lift § Statistical power § Statistical confidence § Number of experiences
§ Sample size (time)
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Use a test duration calculator
adobe-target.com/testcalculator.html
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Potential testing pitfalls and how to avoid them
§ Choosing the wrong metric
§ Not designing your test
§ Stopping the test early
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
After full test period B beats A
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Conv
ersio
n Ra
te
Day
Experience A
Experience B
Experience A
Experience B
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Effect of ending tests at arbitrary stopping points
Stopping a test arbitrarily dramatically increases false positives
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Why?
Each check of the test is another chance for a false positive
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
A/A Test Simulation
A A vs.
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Continuous Monitoring Simulation of 100 tests at 95% Confidence Level
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Continuous monitoring can greatly inflate your false positive rate
At 95% confidence level we expected 5% false positives
With continuous monitoring, we got 34% false positives
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Checklist for calling a winner or loser
þ Did you run the test for the time the test duration calculator said?
þ Did you run the test over a representative time period?
þ Were the results consistent over time (graphically)?
þ Was the reported confidence above the level input in the calculator?
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Potential testing pitfalls and how to avoid them
§ Choosing the wrong metric >
§ Not designing your test >
§ Stopping the test early >
Optimize to revenue
Use a calculator
Preset how long to run
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Automated Personalisation Methods
Determines predictive attributes toward a specific
conversion event to understand high value
segments.
1 Identifies relationships
between groups of visitors to show strength between
segments.
3 Propensity Modeling:
Attributes Cluster
Methodology
Ranks your visitors from low to high based on
a specific conversion event.
2 Propensity Modeling:
Score
Uses your existing audience profiles to serve relevant content to the individual
based on high value behavior.
4 Automated
Personalisation
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Propensity Modeling – Predictive Attributes
Email Paid Search
Direct Load
Paid Search
Direct Load
Natural Search
Display
Social
Affiliates -2 1 2 Pick variables
that you can action off of
within testing.
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Propensity Modeling – Predictive Attributes
Sample Attribute Data
> = 3
> = 2
Shirts
Pages Views
Return Visits
Category Affinity
Referrer Prominence of recommendations by category on product detail pages 1
2 Encourage email newsletter signup after 2-3 page views
3 Create an email campaign for cart abandoners
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Propensity Modeling – Clothing Retail Site
Challenge § Are there more actionable attributes
within search?
§ Ran a second propensity model.
Result
§ Correlation between visitors sorting by size and placing an order.
§ Tested the default sort setting to be by size.
§ 5% lift in order conversion rate.
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion © 2014 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
200,000,000
100,000,000
60% 70% 50%
300,000,000
400,000,000
90% 100% 80% 10% 20% 40% 30%
Propensity Modeling – Visitor Rank
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Propensity Modeling – Visitor Rank
Challenge § The Jazz wanted to sell more season
passes which are very profitable.
Approach § Ran a propensity model with CRM
data and Analytics. § People more than 75% likely to
purchase received an invitation to a special event at the stadium.
Result § 60% of those who attended
purchased a season pass.
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Cluster Methodology – Men’s Fashion/Lifestyle Publishing Example
Mostly Mobile Brand Casual One and Done Brand Addicts
% of Total Population: 44% 23% 27% 6%
% of Total Visits: 16% 12% 19% 53%
Visits per Month: 1.00 1.18 1.52 5.20
% of Total Page Views: 11% 8% 32% 49%
Page Views per Month: 10.93 13.47 46.61 155.81
Page Views per Visit: 10.69 10.38 25.91 14.17
Time Spent per Visit: 2.86 3.44 9.93 13.01
Time Spent per Month: 2.86 4.04 12.99 39.84
% Mobile: 0% 99% 7% 28%
% of Searches: 0% 0% 45% 55%
% of Logins: 1% 2% 3% 94%
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Cluster Methodology – Men’s Fashion/Lifestyle Publishing Example
Brand Casual
% of Total Population: 27%
% of Total Visits: 19%
Visits per Month: 1.52
% of Total Page Views: 32%
Page Views per Month: 46.61
Page Views per Visit: 25.91
Time Spent per Visit: 9.93
Time Spent per Month: 12.99
% Mobile: 7%
% of Searches: 45%
% of Logins: 3%
Brand Casuals: Encourage return visits to drive page views: § Newsletter signup § Email testing § Display retargeting
HIGH PAGE VIEW CONSUMPTION PER
VISIT
LOW RETURN VISITS
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion © 2014 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
30%
10%
Home Page
Fashion Shows
How To
News/Politics
Sports Food/Travel
Style Women Entertainment SD_M Cars/ Gear
Blogs
20%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80% One and Done
Mostly Mobile
Brand Casual Brand Addicts
Cluster Methodology – Men’s Fashion/Lifestyle Publishing Example
Percent of Total Page Views by Site Section
70% OF FASHION AND
60% OF STYLE PAGE VIEWS
6% VISITORS
Brand Addicts: Promote style content on top entry pages: § Targeted navigation § Category-based Recommendations
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Algorithm – Dynamic Offer Population
General Score
Algorithm Targeted Offer
User Score
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Automated Personalization – Testing Strategy
Choose an optimizing metric that can support
your traffic and your site goals.
Run on high traffic pages of the site in a high impact area where the visitor has
a high level decision to make.
Make your offers unique to allow the
algorithm to differentiate.
Enrich your visitor segmentation strategy
with Target profiles.
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Key Takeaways
Personalisation should be approached as a
strategy.
1 Build a solid
optimisation platform by avoiding common
mistakes.
2 Use statistical methods
and automation to enhance your
personalisation.
3
VT1 – RBS Audio 01:43 Plays auto
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Q&A
© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. @jamiebrighton #emerceconversion
Jamie Brighton [email protected] Twitter: @jamiebrighton LinkedIn: jamiebrighton